Ireen Choga - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Ireen Choga

Ekonomika

Understanding dynamics of daily stock returns provide insight in trading opportunities available ... more Understanding dynamics of daily stock returns provide insight in trading opportunities available in stock markets. The purpose of the study was to examine whether day of the week effect exists in the South African equity market. Daily data from Top 40, All Shares, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Goods, Health Care, Consumer Services, Telecommunications, Financials and Technology indices were collected for period 1995 to 2018. Exponential and threshold generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity models were employed to analyse day of the week anomaly. Findings of the day of the week for the mean equation revealed a positive Monday effect for aggregate indices namely Top 40 and All shares whilst the sectorial analysis showed a positive Monday effect for Basic materials, Consumer goods, Health care and Telecommunication. Furthermore, the mean equation for day of the week depicted a positive Tuesday effect for Financials sector, positive Wednesday effect for Consum...

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, Sep 4, 2017

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government s... more Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study reexamine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner's law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.

Doi:10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n14p227 South Africa in its quest for socio-economic improvement still fa... more Doi:10.5901/mjss.2013.v4n14p227 South Africa in its quest for socio-economic improvement still faces the problem of persistent high rate of unemployment. Unemployment in South Africa is very intricate and therefore makes it a complex challenge to tackle for policy makers. Differing rates of unemployment do exist in different sectors of the economy. Some sectors are facing employment growth while others are declining. This study examines the possible major determinants of labour demand (employment) in the Textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing sector in South Africa. The study is based on quarterly time series data from 1990 to 2011. The Johansen (1991) model is used to examine these trends. The model is an error correction model imposed upon a vector autoregressive model. The results obtained showed that wages and imports both have negative relationships with the demand for workers. Based on these two important results, the study recommended the introduction of a sector-based...

Problems and Perspectives in Management

Productive inefficiency and lagging technology progress are major reasons behind the Southern Afr... more Productive inefficiency and lagging technology progress are major reasons behind the Southern Africa Development Community’s (SADC) continued exportation of unprocessed minerals to the world markets. The study seeks to uncover the impact of trade openness on the technical efficiency of the mining sector in selected SADC countries (Botswana, DRC, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Technical efficiency is the ability of any production process to produce maximum output from minimum quantities of inputs. A Cobb Douglas Stochastic Frontier Approach in a single-stage maximum likelihood estimation of Green’s true fixed effects was used to compute technical efficiency (scores) and the technological progress in the mining sector of SADC. Results indicate that there is no technical efficiency gains from trade liberalization during the period under study together with positive and significant technological progress. A coefficient of 0.72 suggests that a 1% increase in trade openness...

Uninterrupted and sufficient electricity supply is one of the most important determinants that bo... more Uninterrupted and sufficient electricity supply is one of the most important determinants that boost manufacturing output in any economy. The availability of electricity plays a vital role in both the production and consumption of goods and services as well as in a country's growth prospects. It is against this background that the main objective of this dissertation is to determine the impact of electricity supply on manufacturing sector output in South Africa from 1985 to 2014.Cointegrated VAR methodology was implemented to test the impact of electricity supply on South Africa's manufactured output. The analysis showed evidence of two cointegrating vectors. A positive long run relationship was found between manufactured output and manufacturing employment and between manufactured output and electricity supply. The results imply that electricity supply and manufacturing employment play a role in bringing manufactured output to equilibrium. In this study the error term is-0.135, which implies that the cointegration relationship is stable. The speed of adjustment is 13.5 percent. This is a speed at which manufacturing output returns to equilibrium after a shock in independent variables like electricity supply. This indicates that 13.5 percent of the gap between manufactured output and its equilibrium value is eliminated in the short run. The policy implication of a positive relationship between electricity supply and manufactured output is that an expansion of the electricity sector will result in an increase in manufactured output. Policy makers in South Africa should continue to formulate and implement policies that are aimed at promoting and expanding the electricity sector. This will not only boost the manufacturing sector but will also create more jobs in the country. The results that have emerged from this analysis corroborate the theoretical predictions and are also supported by previous studies.

Exports have considerable effects on economic growth, employment and trade so it is crucial to un... more Exports have considerable effects on economic growth, employment and trade so it is crucial to understand the factors that are responsible for their variation. This paper analyses the fundamental determinants of exports using annual South African data covering the period 1980 to 2013. It initially provides an overview of the South African export structure and export growth. A review of theoretical determinants is then specified. The study tests for stationarity and cointegration using the Johansen (1991; 1995) methodology. A vector error correction model is run to provide robust determinant variables on exports. The following variables which have been found to have a long run relationship with exports include: real effective exchange rate, trade openness, foreign income and price of inputs (cost of production). The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about 29% of the variation in exports from its equilibrium level is corrected within on...

Review of Public Administration and Management, 2021

Public debt is the most important economic indicator in such a way that if it is unsustainable, h... more Public debt is the most important economic indicator in such a way that if it is unsustainable, higher interest costs could detriment significant public investments that ensure economic growth. Most of developing economies including South Africa are known to be having unsustainable public debt levels coupled with poor economic growth. Irrespective of governments’ measures to service the public debt, like selling enough bonds, taxpayers end up carrying the debt. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to estimate an empirical effect of tax revenue collection on public debt in South Africa. Public debt is treated as the dependent variable and tax revenue collection as the main independent variable in addition to secondary independent variables such as foreign direct investment, political instability and corruption. This paper uses econometric techniques such as Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL). This paper finds long and ...

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business

The study aims to investigate the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in a sample of five Af... more The study aims to investigate the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in a sample of five African countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia for the period 1991 to 2016. The study first estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate with variables real exchange rate, productivity, terms of trade and net foreign assets. Secondly, real exchange rate misalignment is derived and lastly, the effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance are tested. For the methodology, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and pool mean group econometric (PMG) techniques were utilised. The outcomes of the study indicate a valid Balassa-Samuelson effect in all five African countries and a negative effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance. The study contributes to scientific progress by introducing an appropriate measure of total factor productivity in testing for the validity of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis.

Economic Change and Restructuring

Exchange rate volatility is often perceived to cause a reduction in the overall level of trade. I... more Exchange rate volatility is often perceived to cause a reduction in the overall level of trade. In view of the proliferation of rapid regional trade agreements in recent years, the unpredictability of exchange rate has prompted many economists to investigate the effects of the volatile nature of exchange rate on trade. Previous studies have neglected the sectoral data, focusing instead on the aggregate trade flows which may have led to incomplete conclusions. The present paper aims to fill this lacuna by employing a proper specification of the gravity model using a panel of 95 countries that trade with South Africa over the period 2000–2017. Two major findings emerge. First, using aggregate data, the results suggest that nonlinear volatility has a positive and significant effect on trade, whereas linear volatility does not exert any impact on trade. Second, using sectoral data, the paper finds that there is no definite effect of volatility on trade.

African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development

Financial development and economic growth nexus is still an ongoing debate. Several studies have ... more Financial development and economic growth nexus is still an ongoing debate. Several studies have indicated the positive benefits associated with enhancing financial development. Nevertheless, more ...

Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

Households are tremendously affected by changes in food prices. The extent of the impact depends ... more Households are tremendously affected by changes in food prices. The extent of the impact depends on the income of households. This study is undertaken to analyse the impact of food price changes on food insecurity and economic welfare in selected southern African countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique and Botswana). The Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model is estimated using time series data from the period of 1980 to 2016. The findings of this study showed that food price changes positively affect economic welfare in the long run for the countries. Households that are net food sellers generate a higher income when prices go up. Therefore, food price changes are a gain for these households, especially producers and net sellers. Furthermore, the study revealed that inflation and net trade affect economic welfare for the countries in the short run. As a policy recommendation, the governments of these countries can subsidise food producers, most especially producers of staple foods that are seasonal; this can stabilize food price changes. As a result, both net sellers and net buyers of food can benefit from food prices. In other words, the benefit of food price can spread across to net buyers, not only net sellers. Also the governments of these countries can use monetary policy such as increase in interest rate to combat inflation.

SSRN Electronic Journal

This study seeks to investigate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in So... more This study seeks to investigate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Southern African Custom Union (SACU) member economies between 1980 and 2017. Government expenditure and revenue were used as the proxy variables for the fiscal policy whereas real interest rate, inflation, official exchange rate and M2 money supply were used as the proxy variables for monetary policy. Using Lin, Levin and Chu (LLC), and Im, Peresan and Shin (IPS) unit root tests, it was found that all variables were stationary at level except for M2 money supply which was found to be stationary after first difference. Due to this, Panel Auto Regression Distributed Lags (PARDL) estimation technique was utilized in this study. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) PARDL model estimator was used in this study. The results indicate that fiscal and monetary policy influence economic growth significantly in the long run. However, fiscal policy is only significant if government expenditure is used as the functional policy instrument rather than government revenue. In the short run, the effects of these two macroeconomic policies on economic growth are mixed. Granger causality results indicate that the direction government expenditure, real interest rate, inflation and official exchange rate Granger cause economic growth. These causality links are unidirectional in nature. Lastly, the results also indicate that private investment is crowded out in the long run because of significant high levels of government expenditure in the long run across SACU member economies. In the short run, private investment is crowded out because of significant high level of government expenditure only in Swaziland. As some of the recommendations of this study, SACU member governments should redirect their public expenditures into investing more in human capital. Investing in human capital, among other factors can include empowering the active unemployed population with relevant skills that meet labor markets for easy employment. In that case, the tax revenues would increase which could play an important role in reducing government budget deficits. Furthermore, SACU member economies' central banks can make monetary policy more effective by using monetary accommodation. Hence, when the governments apply expansionary fiscal policy, the central banks can increase money supply to avoid interest rates from increasing (monetizing budget deficit).

Public and Municipal Finance

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and governme... more This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

Banks and Bank Systems

The paper presents factors why people are reluctant to bank money in rural Southern African count... more The paper presents factors why people are reluctant to bank money in rural Southern African countries. Six countries namely Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe were used in the study. A focus group of 10 people from each of the stated Southern African countries was composed and used to obtain perceptions, views, reactions, attitudes, experiences among others on why people are reluctant to bank their money. People are unwilling to bank their money in rural Southern Africa and the reasons behind this seem to be many. If no correctional measures are put in place, rural Southern Africa will continue to be unbanked for the next five decades.

Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 2018

The neoclassical and Keynesian theories regard private investment not only as a source of economi... more The neoclassical and Keynesian theories regard private investment not only as a source of economic growth but also as a determinant of the potential extent of the national income. The aim of this research was to examine the determinants of private fixed investment in South Africa by employing the Johansen cointegration technique and the vector error correction model (VECM) analysis. Based on the literature survey it appears that the previous studies mainly focused on private investment in manufacturing and infrastructure sectors therefore this is envisaged to add knowledge to a body of economics literature in this area by focusing more on private fixed investment and its determinants in South Africa. The study concludes that for the period under investigation GDP has the positive sign as expected. This suggests that in the long run it impact positively on private fixed investment. The findings of the study also confirmed that tax rate is a complementary to private fixed investment. ...

Public and Municipal Finance

The main purpose of this paper is to document some challenges faced by Independent Development Tr... more The main purpose of this paper is to document some challenges faced by Independent Development Trust (IDT) in infrastructure delivery of the provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal. Infrastructure delivery has a significant effect on the local budgets or budgets of projects in the province. The main focus of the study was the root causes of delays, budgetary overruns and the resultant effect on service delivery backlogs and socioeconomic impact caused by such delays. The study setting comprised of professional stakeholders in the built environment and these include specialists and professionals in the engineering, construction management, civil and general building fields. The objectives of this study were achieved by means of a self-administered questionnaire that was distributed to a group of participants, composed of project managers, quantity surveyors, engineers, architects and project managers working with IDT. The nature of the research was quantitative and data analysis used descriptive and a bit of inferential statistics to arrive at some generalizations and conclusions. The study was able to affirm that there are major inefficiencies in the current infrastructure delivery model of the South African government. Major causes identified include factors such as delays in payments, poor planning, subsiding levels of professional ethics and standards exercised by professionals in the built environment, and so forth. The study also made some recommendations from the research findings. Clearly the infrastructure delivery model requires a new trajectory in tackling the under-development and triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and slow economic growth.

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government s... more Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagne...

Problems and Perspectives in Management, 2016

The South African public sector is faced with many challenges and one of the major challenges is ... more The South African public sector is faced with many challenges and one of the major challenges is service delivery. This is linked with skills shortage resulting in public service having too many people to train in a short period of time. Training these many employees face-to-face has its challenges, as employees have to be away from their day-to-day duties to attend training and this not only has an impact on productivity, but also maximizes costs. To deal with and to minimize these challenges, the South African government has chosen to introduce e-Learning in public sector. This is aimed at ensuring that larger numbers of government officials are trained at minimum costs and ensuring that training reaches people with different responsibilities such as top management and people with families who cannot afford to be away from home or office for training for long periods of time. This study examined the advantages and disadvantages of the introduction of e-Learning in the public secto...

Corporate Ownership and Control, 2015

Emerging contractors play a critical role in the South African economy in terms of rendering serv... more Emerging contractors play a critical role in the South African economy in terms of rendering services to government especially in the construction sector. However, literature findings reveal that some of the SMMEs are unable to deliver their projects successfully due to project management issues. The focus of this study was to establish the project management factors influencing the successful delivery of construction projects by emerging contractors in the Mahikeng area of South Africa. A mixed design research method was used to collect, analyse and derive the findings. Findings revealed that projects do not comply with the time, scope, cost and quality requirements. Focus group interview results attributed these problems to lack of project management skills among the emerging contractors. It is recommended that more support initiatives from the South African Department of Public Works, and other key stakeholders in the construction industry be provided to these contractors

Ekonomika

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, Sep 4, 2017

Problems and Perspectives in Management

Review of Public Administration and Management, 2021

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business

Economic Change and Restructuring

African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development

Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

SSRN Electronic Journal

Public and Municipal Finance

Banks and Bank Systems

Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 2018

Public and Municipal Finance

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government s... more Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagne...

Problems and Perspectives in Management, 2016

Corporate Ownership and Control, 2015