Irina Danilovich - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Irina Danilovich

Water

Regional studies of precipitation changes over Europe show that its eastern part is characterized... more Regional studies of precipitation changes over Europe show that its eastern part is characterized by small changes in annual precipitation and insignificant aridity trends compared to central and southern Europe. However, a frequency analysis over the past 30 years showed statistically significant increasing dryness trends in eastern Europe and an increase in the occurrence of extremely high rainfall as well as prolonged no-rain intervals during the warm season. The largest increase in aridity was observed in the western and central parts of Belarus. During 1990–2020, the frequency of dry periods doubled in all river basins along the Black, Caspian, and Baltic Sea water divide areas of eastern Europe. From 1970 to 1990, there were high streamflow rates during the winter low-flow season. Consequently, over the past 50 years, in spring, we observed here a continued decrease in maximal discharges across all river basins. In summer, we detected a statistically significant increase in th...

Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

The features of the regional heterogeneity of the modern meteorological regime are assessed, as a... more The features of the regional heterogeneity of the modern meteorological regime are assessed, as a refinement of existing estimates of large-scale climate changes – for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment on the example of the Leningrad Region and nearby territories of neighbouring subjects of the Russian Federation (northern part of the region), as well as the Zapadnaya Dvina catchment within the Republic of Belarus (southern part of the region). Significant differences in surface air temperature and snow water equivalent (hereinafter referred to as snow storage) were revealed for the winter period, with similar precipitation, more intense interannual and long-term changes in the southern part of the region. The common feature for the region is the presence of a significant correlation of the long-term January – March atmospheric circulation indices variability only with the variability of surface air temperature, as well as minor differences in the number of anomalous year...

Doklady of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus

The article presents an assessment of current changes in air temperature, precipitation, snow an... more The article presents an assessment of current changes in air temperature, precipitation, snow and river runoff in the Baltic and Arctic Seas basins in the territories of Belarus and Russia. It is shown that the observed positive air temperature trends during the winter season are associated with the sea level pressure distribution in the North Atlantic and NAO indices. In summer, the temperature growth is correlated strongly with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. Changes in the precipitation regime are synchronized with an increase in the sea level pressure in the baroclinic active zones of the Atlantic Ocean, which led to the precipitation increase in Europe since the second half of the 20th century. Interdecadal precipitation fluctuations in the study region are associated with the dynamics of the circumpolar vortex and Arctic oscillation (AO) indices. In winter, a precipitation increase is observed in the negative AO phase and is caused by an increase in the frequency of s...

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2021

This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction a... more This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m•s-1) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.

Japan Geoscience Union, Mar 14, 2019

Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 2021

The study presents an investigation of current and future changes in precipitation regime over te... more The study presents an investigation of current and future changes in precipitation regime over territory of Belarus. An assessment of precipitation means and extremes and droughts indices was provided for period of 1948–2019 and more detailed analysis have been carried out for period of climate change in 1989–2019. The precipitation expected changes were studied for period of 2021–2099. It was established that precipitation growth up to 20–30 % in winter during 1989–2019 in comparison by 1948–1988, is connected with increase the number of days with weak precipitation and caused by growing duration of liquid precipitation falling. In summer the reducing of rain falling duration was noticed over territory of Belarus. At the same time the significant growth of precipitation maximal totals per day by 20–30 % was detected. The largest growth was found in the south of the country. Dry days number raised by 1–4 days and dry and hot days numbers raised by 1–2 days per decade. The repeatabil...

Japan Geoscience Union, 2018

Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 2020

The study presents the pattern of climatic changes in the region of the Belarusian Polesje in cur... more The study presents the pattern of climatic changes in the region of the Belarusian Polesje in current period and shows peculiarities of agricultural conditions on drained peat bogs during last decades. Also the climatic projections in the study region are presented with emphasize on agricultural indices. The climate changes in the region are synchronized with a global climate warming, and expressed more significant on the natural than drained areas. But at the same time a severe and extreme conditions for vegetation growth are more evident on the drained peat bogs. The precipitation sums exceeding have been noticed in the eastern part of the Belarusian Polesje in comparison with western part. The amelioration, deforestation and decrease of underlying surface roughness have led to wind speed growth and decrease of precipitation. The observed climate change tendencies will be kept in the current century. The growth of air temperature will continue, the largest deviations of the air te...

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2021

The first weather observations within the modern territory of Belarus go back to ancient times an... more The first weather observations within the modern territory of Belarus go back to ancient times and are found as mentions of weather conditions in chronicles. Hydrometeorology in those times was not a defined science but connected to the everyday needs of people in different regions. In the period from 1000 to 1800, there were first efforts to document outstanding weather conditions and phenomena. They are stored in chronicles, books, and reports. The first instrumental observations started in the early 1800s. They have varying observing practices and periods of observations. The hydrometeorological network saw the active expansion of observations in the following century, but the network was destroyed at the beginning of the civil war (1917–1922). Five years later, hydrometeorological activity resumed, and the foundation of meteorological services of the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic (RSFSR) was initiated. The next years saw a complicated Belarusian hydrometeorological s...

Климатические изменения и сезонная динамика ландшафтов. Материалы Всероссийской научно-практической конференции, 2021

A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and ... more A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2019

The study presents an assessment of the recent and projected changes of the middle and upper West... more The study presents an assessment of the recent and projected changes of the middle and upper Western Dvina River runoff and regional climate during the 20th and 21st centuries. For this assessment, we used historical runoff data, the output of EURO-CORDEX consortium calculations for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hydrological model "Hydrograph." Analysis of monthly runoff data for the 1945-2015 period revealed positive trends for each of the five months from December to April. These trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. No significant trends were found for other months. Significant negative trends were established for spring flood peak discharges (from −69 to −88 m 3 s −1 per 10 years). Usually, maximum discharges are observed during spring floods. Minimum discharges during winter low-water period were increased by 6 m 3 s −1 per 10 years. The annual runoff trend was statistically significant only at the Polotsk gauging station (9.5 m 3 s −1 per 10 years). To the end of the current century over the study region, estimates of projected meteorological parameters (air temperature and precipitation) show positive tendencies of air temperature (from 2.4 • C to 4.7 • C depending on scenario) and precipitation (up to 15 to 30 mm). Changes of seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation vary depending on the models and scenarios used. The strongest changes were noticed for the RCP8.5 scenario. The greatest changes within each scenario were revealed for the winter and spring seasons. It is projected that during the 2021-2100 period according to both RCP scenarios, annual discharges will not change in the upper part of the Western Dvina River Basin and increase by 10-12% in its lower part. The maximum spring flood discharges in both RCP scenarios are expected to decrease by 25%. The minimum runoff of winter lowflow period is expected to increase by up to 60 to 90% above the present long-term mean values.

International Journal of Climatology, 2021

This study analyses long‐term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, S... more This study analyses long‐term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3 months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves‐Samani (SPEIH) and Penman‐Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus and northern Poland. In the rest of study domain, a weak and mostly insignificant decrease prevailed in winter. Summer season (June–August) is characterized by changes in the opposite sign. An increase was observed in the north, while a clear decrease i...