Isaac Shinyekwa, PhD - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Isaac Shinyekwa, PhD

The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products s... more The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005: has increased the EAC regional capacity to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and improved welfare. Results suggest that although intra-EAC trade increased since 2005, the imports of the same products from outside the region even increased more creating a huge negative trade balance. This suggests that there is deficiency in regional capacity to produce these products within the bloc, therefore effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high tariffs imposed on the sensitive list of products. November 2012 Issue No. 25 Issue No. 73 August 2016 Towards Sustainable Development

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

This paper presents findings from research in rural Uganda based on household survey and village ... more This paper presents findings from research in rural Uganda based on household survey and village level participatory work with in-depth life history interviews. This allowed the exploration of trajectories into and out of poverty and found that the loss of assets and composite shocks have propelled a number of previously non-poor households into severe and long-term poverty. In addition, findings illustrated that those born into chronically poor households found few opportunities for accumulation and escape. Well-being decline was associated with a web of meso-level constraints and shocks which commonly combined negatively with household level shocks and socio-cultural or socio-psychological factors. Chronically poor households seldom faced only a single problem or constraint, and those who reduced the intensity of their poverty generally managed to do so as a result of several serendipitous events or factors combining. Shocks with a long-run impact include the fragmentation of families, following marital breakdown or the death of a parent. The repercussions of this were particularly strong for women and their children who could be affected long into adulthood. Ill health, physical weakness and disability were strongly associated with declines in well-being. 'Non-cooperation within the household', resulting in the theft and sale of stored crops or household assets, was associated with high (male) alcohol consumption, high levels of domestic violence and reduced levels of well-being for the whole household. Inter-ethnic conflict resulting in internal displacement, the loss of productive and household assets and the death of household members caused lifelong trauma and declines into chronic poverty for many households. The complete absence of effective interventions for 'vulnerable groups' has left widows, orphans, the abandoned elderly, the disabled and the long-term sick with no where to turn. Difficulties in accessing markets, particularly in remote rural areas, means that the chronically poor, even the 'non-vulnerable', can rarely accumulate assets through selling their labour. With no surplus to save, low levels of human, social or political capital and few productive assets, the chronically poor's ability to identify and capitalise on escape routes from poverty are profoundly limited. Day to day levels of well-being are extremely low and they have little hope for a brighter future. Targeted social protection measures are clearly necessary to provide longterm welfare to some and opportunities to invest and accumulate for others.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

ABSTRACT In this annotated bibliography, resources on poverty and chronic poverty in rural Uganda... more ABSTRACT In this annotated bibliography, resources on poverty and chronic poverty in rural Uganda are organised into the following sections: Education, Health, National debt and poverty, Poverty in policy perspective, Measuring and characterising poverty, Poverty trends in Uganda, Poverty in institutional and governance context, Gender aspects of poverty, Credit, Accessibility, Violence and conflict, Service delivery, Infrastructure, Constraints to rural development, AIDS/HIV experience and policy in Uganda, and Miscellaneous.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

It is common cause that the advent of mobile telecommunications, particularly the mobile phone, h... more It is common cause that the advent of mobile telecommunications, particularly the mobile phone, has been immensely beneficial to developing countries. Not only has it facilitated and improved communication between individuals, but also it has enabled economies to grow faster. This paper explores an additional benefit that derives from having access to a mobile phone. It examines the developmental uses of mobile phones in two East African countries: Kenya and Uganda. It focuses on the relationship between the economic upgrading and the social upgrading or downgrading that result from the developmental uses of mobile phones. It is done by means of case studies. In Kenya, the paper looks at three developmental projects making use of the M-Pesa platform, as well as two hubs in Nairobi where original ideas are incubated. In Uganda, it explores two uses of MTN's mobile money facility and two innovative rural agricultural projects. It finds that all the cases and projects result in economic and social upgrading, although there is also some social downgrading. The study also extends and broadens the conceptualization of economic and social upgrading as formulated by Capturing the Gains thus far. Finally, the paper shows how it differs from most other studies on the developmental uses of mobile phones in Sub-Saharan Africa-by focusing on social entrepreneurship, which, unlike private entrepreneurship, seeks primarily to create social value. With one exception, all the cases studied in this paper enhance the capacity of users of mobile phones to upgrade themselves economically and socially.

Journal of African Development

The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the ... more The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda's trade. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the EAC region or is still dominated by other trading blocs. The augmented gravity model is applied. The panel data are extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 – 2009. Uganda's trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more into the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are also integrated into these regions as well as in the Asian and EU trading blocs. To continue consolidating and deepening the trade gains within the EAC, Uganda should implement the frameworks, protocols and provisions of the treaty and seek industrialization as a priority.

Modern Supply Chain Research and Applications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export logistics components: ship... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export logistics components: shipment arrangements, timely delivery, customs quality, trade infrastructure, and tracking and tracing on export competitiveness of firms in the East African Community (EAC).Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted the Structural Gravity Model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). PPML a nonlinear estimation method was applied in STATA on a balanced panel data for the period of 2007–2018. Data were obtained from World Bank International Trade Centre (ITC), World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and World Bank development indicators.FindingsResults show that timely delivery and tracking and tracing of exports are positive and significant predictors of export competitiveness in EAC countries. Conversely, shipment arrangements, customs quality and trade infrastructure have no influence on export competitiveness.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this study sh...

Executive summary The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of se... more Executive summary The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005: has increased the EAC regional capacity to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and improved welfare. Results suggest that although intra-EAC trade increased since 2005, the imports of the same products from outside the region even increased more creating a huge negative trade balance. This suggests that there is deficiency in regional capacity to produce these products within the bloc, therefore effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high tariffs imposed on the sensitive list of products.

The distinguishing feature of chronic poverty is extended duration in absolute poverty. Therefore... more The distinguishing feature of chronic poverty is extended duration in absolute poverty. Therefore, chronically poor people always, or usually, live below a poverty line, which is normally defined in terms of a money indicator (e.g. consumption, income, etc.), but could also be defined in terms of wider or subjective aspects of deprivation. This is different from the transitorily poor, who move in and out of poverty, or only occasionally fall below the poverty line. www.chronicpoverty.org

Poor quality of infrastructure increases the risk of damaging goods therefore increasing the cost... more Poor quality of infrastructure increases the risk of damaging goods therefore increasing the cost of the whole transaction. Shipment holdups, overcrowding and congestion at the ports in Kenya hinder the ability of firms to acquire imported production inputs, resulting in production losses and higher production costs. These kind of costs can spill over into the rest of the region particularly in the landlocked countries (Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan) whose exports and imports transit through these ports. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that at the regional level, institutional differences across countries are often key determinants of trade patterns and volumes.

The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integra... more The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. Specifically, it analyses the likely effects of the asymmetric tariff reduction on the macro variables and quantifies the sectoral growth effects on the industrial, agricultural and services sectors. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. The primary policy simulation is the asymmetric reduction of internal tariffs across East African countries under assumptions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production. Other policy simulations that change these assumptions are analysed. Results indicate that the aggregate impact of internal tariff reduction under conditions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production is positive with average GDP growth improving by up to 0.3 percentage points over the period 2008 – 2021. However, the reduction in tariffs has negative i...

The paper examines the comparative advantage of Uganda’s exports to the East African Community (E... more The paper examines the comparative advantage of Uganda’s exports to the East African Community (EAC) partner states, and how it has evolved during the implementation of the EAC treaty. In addition, the paper seeks to identify commodities that Uganda should specialize in as a basis to enhance the ability to benefit from the special preferential treatment extended to Uganda by China. The paper applies various indices in the measurement of Uganda’s Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) on all products at Harmonised System (HS4)-digit product levels. The HS4-digit product level data was obtained from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) UNCTAD COMTRADE database. The empirical evidence of Uganda’s comparative advantage in this context is largely dependent on the individual country under consideration. However, it is evident that Uganda’s list of commodities for exports to the EAC partner states is rapidly expanding and the RCA has increased especially during the implementation of the Cu...

The stalemate of the multilateral trade system in addressing key trade and trade related issues o... more The stalemate of the multilateral trade system in addressing key trade and trade related issues over the years have mounted pressure on World Trade Organisation (WTO) member states to search for alternative solutions. This pressure has directed countries’ attention and efforts towards bilateral and regional trade arrangements as an immediate intervention to resolve some of the stagnated issues at the multilateral level. Despite the pressure and the hurry for regional trade liberalization, concluding a comprehensive agreement both at bilateral, regional and multilateral negotiations remains complex to achieve given the existence of varying economic divergences among countries. With regard to the proposed tripartite Free Trade Area (T-FTA) among COMESA-EAC and SADC member states, it is one among the many regional economic communities (RECs) that have emerged over the years. This paper tries to examine some of the complexities and inter-linkages in reaching a tripartite free trade agre...

The Journal of African Development, 2016

The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the ... more The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda's trade. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the EAC region or is still dominated by other trading blocs. The augmented gravity model is applied. The panel data are extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 - 2009. Uganda's trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more into the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are also integrated into these regions as well as in the Asian and EU trading blocs. To continue consolidating and deepening the trade gains within the EAC, Uganda should implement the frameworks, protocols and provisions of the treaty and seek industrialization as a priority.

The paper aims at mapping out the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda with a view to ide... more The paper aims at mapping out the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda with a view to identify areas for further research in a systematic and more detailed way. The economic and social upgrading/downgrading conceptual framework to guide the Capturing the Gains research agenda was used in this process. The paper briefly presents the mobile phone domains, emphasising the relevant parts for Uganda, which include; software development, sales and marketing, mobile service provision and end use developmental elements. The paper gives highlights of the growth and explosion of the mobile telecommunications sector in the last two decades underpinning the drivers of this growth, which include deregulation, liberalisation, technology advancement, the growing population and Uganda’s strategic hinterland location. It is demonstrated that Mobile-phone Network Operators (MNOs) in Uganda are owned by companies with strong global value chains, which spread continentally to other African coun...

The hindrances to the gainful participation of least developed countries (LDCs) in international ... more The hindrances to the gainful participation of least developed countries (LDCs) in international trade are predominantly domestic supply related constraints rather than foreign market access. These constraints include variable productive capacity, economic infrastructure bottlenecks, and inability to meet international quality standards. In recognition of such challenges facing LDCs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the “Aid for Trade” (AFT) initiative in 2005 to coordinate international support for strengthening trade capacity in LDCs. Looking at the case of Uganda, we initially examine the role of overall Official Development Assistance (ODA) in driving Uganda’s external trade and then specifically that of AFT in strengthening national trade capacity. Although we find reasonable alignment between aid and national development priorities, there is, as yet, very little evidence of a robust aid impact especially on export capability vis-a-vis that of import. The paper under...

The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integra... more The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. Specifically, it analyses the likely effects of the asymmetric tariff reduction on the macro variables and quantifies the sectoral growth effects on the industrial, agricultural and services sectors. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. The primary policy simulation is the asymmetric reduction of internal tariffs across East African countries under assumptions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production. Other policy simulations that change these assumptions are analysed. Results indicate that the aggregate impact of internal tariff reduction under conditions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production is positive with average GDP growth improving by up to 0.3 percentage points over the period 2008 – 2021. However, the reduction in tariffs has negative i...

Policy briefs, 2012

The privatization of veterinary extension services delivery in Uganda opened more opportunities f... more The privatization of veterinary extension services delivery in Uganda opened more opportunities for the private sector in the provision of extension services and supply of essential inputs demanded by a growing and more dynamic dairy sector. Consequently, the number of agents profoundly increased – and the markets became flooded with new and untested inputs (from the unregulated private sector). One big setback emerging – relates to the growing efficacy doubts and negative experiences (including losing money or animals) associated with use of inputs on the market, contributing to non-adoption of essential inputs. Selective adoption of essential inputs in dairy farming is also wide spread. The way forward requires impartation of proper and recommended skills in livestock husbandry practices. This will entail building new information dissemination networks by strengthening the capacity to channel veterinary extension support services via farmer groups centred information delivery inst...

Poorly functioning public sector institutions and weak governance are major constraints to growth... more Poorly functioning public sector institutions and weak governance are major constraints to growth and equitable development in many developing countries. It is imperative that as Uganda confronts its development challenge, it must address the capacity deficits in the policy environment and implementation for sustainable development results and outcomes. Capacity building is important to Uganda, given the mixed performance that the country has had in the past 30 years. In particular, this study notes success in macroeconomic stability, consolidating security and the restructuring of the government during the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP). Similarly, the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) supported poverty reduction by building the capacity of social sectors to expand agricultural production and education and health access. The success of the ERP and the PEAP is largely attributed to donor support in capacity-building effort in institutions such as the Ministry of Finance Plan...

The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products s... more The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005: has increased the EAC regional capacity to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and improved welfare. Results suggest that although intra-EAC trade increased since 2005, the imports of the same products from outside the region even increased more creating a huge negative trade balance. This suggests that there is deficiency in regional capacity to produce these products within the bloc, therefore effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high tariffs imposed on the sensitive list of products. November 2012 Issue No. 25 Issue No. 73 August 2016 Towards Sustainable Development

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

This paper presents findings from research in rural Uganda based on household survey and village ... more This paper presents findings from research in rural Uganda based on household survey and village level participatory work with in-depth life history interviews. This allowed the exploration of trajectories into and out of poverty and found that the loss of assets and composite shocks have propelled a number of previously non-poor households into severe and long-term poverty. In addition, findings illustrated that those born into chronically poor households found few opportunities for accumulation and escape. Well-being decline was associated with a web of meso-level constraints and shocks which commonly combined negatively with household level shocks and socio-cultural or socio-psychological factors. Chronically poor households seldom faced only a single problem or constraint, and those who reduced the intensity of their poverty generally managed to do so as a result of several serendipitous events or factors combining. Shocks with a long-run impact include the fragmentation of families, following marital breakdown or the death of a parent. The repercussions of this were particularly strong for women and their children who could be affected long into adulthood. Ill health, physical weakness and disability were strongly associated with declines in well-being. 'Non-cooperation within the household', resulting in the theft and sale of stored crops or household assets, was associated with high (male) alcohol consumption, high levels of domestic violence and reduced levels of well-being for the whole household. Inter-ethnic conflict resulting in internal displacement, the loss of productive and household assets and the death of household members caused lifelong trauma and declines into chronic poverty for many households. The complete absence of effective interventions for 'vulnerable groups' has left widows, orphans, the abandoned elderly, the disabled and the long-term sick with no where to turn. Difficulties in accessing markets, particularly in remote rural areas, means that the chronically poor, even the 'non-vulnerable', can rarely accumulate assets through selling their labour. With no surplus to save, low levels of human, social or political capital and few productive assets, the chronically poor's ability to identify and capitalise on escape routes from poverty are profoundly limited. Day to day levels of well-being are extremely low and they have little hope for a brighter future. Targeted social protection measures are clearly necessary to provide longterm welfare to some and opportunities to invest and accumulate for others.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

ABSTRACT In this annotated bibliography, resources on poverty and chronic poverty in rural Uganda... more ABSTRACT In this annotated bibliography, resources on poverty and chronic poverty in rural Uganda are organised into the following sections: Education, Health, National debt and poverty, Poverty in policy perspective, Measuring and characterising poverty, Poverty trends in Uganda, Poverty in institutional and governance context, Gender aspects of poverty, Credit, Accessibility, Violence and conflict, Service delivery, Infrastructure, Constraints to rural development, AIDS/HIV experience and policy in Uganda, and Miscellaneous.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

It is common cause that the advent of mobile telecommunications, particularly the mobile phone, h... more It is common cause that the advent of mobile telecommunications, particularly the mobile phone, has been immensely beneficial to developing countries. Not only has it facilitated and improved communication between individuals, but also it has enabled economies to grow faster. This paper explores an additional benefit that derives from having access to a mobile phone. It examines the developmental uses of mobile phones in two East African countries: Kenya and Uganda. It focuses on the relationship between the economic upgrading and the social upgrading or downgrading that result from the developmental uses of mobile phones. It is done by means of case studies. In Kenya, the paper looks at three developmental projects making use of the M-Pesa platform, as well as two hubs in Nairobi where original ideas are incubated. In Uganda, it explores two uses of MTN's mobile money facility and two innovative rural agricultural projects. It finds that all the cases and projects result in economic and social upgrading, although there is also some social downgrading. The study also extends and broadens the conceptualization of economic and social upgrading as formulated by Capturing the Gains thus far. Finally, the paper shows how it differs from most other studies on the developmental uses of mobile phones in Sub-Saharan Africa-by focusing on social entrepreneurship, which, unlike private entrepreneurship, seeks primarily to create social value. With one exception, all the cases studied in this paper enhance the capacity of users of mobile phones to upgrade themselves economically and socially.

Journal of African Development

The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the ... more The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda's trade. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the EAC region or is still dominated by other trading blocs. The augmented gravity model is applied. The panel data are extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 – 2009. Uganda's trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more into the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are also integrated into these regions as well as in the Asian and EU trading blocs. To continue consolidating and deepening the trade gains within the EAC, Uganda should implement the frameworks, protocols and provisions of the treaty and seek industrialization as a priority.

Modern Supply Chain Research and Applications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export logistics components: ship... more PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export logistics components: shipment arrangements, timely delivery, customs quality, trade infrastructure, and tracking and tracing on export competitiveness of firms in the East African Community (EAC).Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted the Structural Gravity Model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). PPML a nonlinear estimation method was applied in STATA on a balanced panel data for the period of 2007–2018. Data were obtained from World Bank International Trade Centre (ITC), World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and World Bank development indicators.FindingsResults show that timely delivery and tracking and tracing of exports are positive and significant predictors of export competitiveness in EAC countries. Conversely, shipment arrangements, customs quality and trade infrastructure have no influence on export competitiveness.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this study sh...

Executive summary The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of se... more Executive summary The study, aimed at establishing whether the protection given to the list of sensitive products since 2005: has increased the EAC regional capacity to produce, reduced the importation of the same products from the rest of the world, increased intra-EAC trade, and improved welfare. Results suggest that although intra-EAC trade increased since 2005, the imports of the same products from outside the region even increased more creating a huge negative trade balance. This suggests that there is deficiency in regional capacity to produce these products within the bloc, therefore effective protection was not adequately achieved by the high tariffs imposed on the sensitive list of products.

The distinguishing feature of chronic poverty is extended duration in absolute poverty. Therefore... more The distinguishing feature of chronic poverty is extended duration in absolute poverty. Therefore, chronically poor people always, or usually, live below a poverty line, which is normally defined in terms of a money indicator (e.g. consumption, income, etc.), but could also be defined in terms of wider or subjective aspects of deprivation. This is different from the transitorily poor, who move in and out of poverty, or only occasionally fall below the poverty line. www.chronicpoverty.org

Poor quality of infrastructure increases the risk of damaging goods therefore increasing the cost... more Poor quality of infrastructure increases the risk of damaging goods therefore increasing the cost of the whole transaction. Shipment holdups, overcrowding and congestion at the ports in Kenya hinder the ability of firms to acquire imported production inputs, resulting in production losses and higher production costs. These kind of costs can spill over into the rest of the region particularly in the landlocked countries (Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan) whose exports and imports transit through these ports. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind that at the regional level, institutional differences across countries are often key determinants of trade patterns and volumes.

The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integra... more The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. Specifically, it analyses the likely effects of the asymmetric tariff reduction on the macro variables and quantifies the sectoral growth effects on the industrial, agricultural and services sectors. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. The primary policy simulation is the asymmetric reduction of internal tariffs across East African countries under assumptions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production. Other policy simulations that change these assumptions are analysed. Results indicate that the aggregate impact of internal tariff reduction under conditions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production is positive with average GDP growth improving by up to 0.3 percentage points over the period 2008 – 2021. However, the reduction in tariffs has negative i...

The paper examines the comparative advantage of Uganda’s exports to the East African Community (E... more The paper examines the comparative advantage of Uganda’s exports to the East African Community (EAC) partner states, and how it has evolved during the implementation of the EAC treaty. In addition, the paper seeks to identify commodities that Uganda should specialize in as a basis to enhance the ability to benefit from the special preferential treatment extended to Uganda by China. The paper applies various indices in the measurement of Uganda’s Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) on all products at Harmonised System (HS4)-digit product levels. The HS4-digit product level data was obtained from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) UNCTAD COMTRADE database. The empirical evidence of Uganda’s comparative advantage in this context is largely dependent on the individual country under consideration. However, it is evident that Uganda’s list of commodities for exports to the EAC partner states is rapidly expanding and the RCA has increased especially during the implementation of the Cu...

The stalemate of the multilateral trade system in addressing key trade and trade related issues o... more The stalemate of the multilateral trade system in addressing key trade and trade related issues over the years have mounted pressure on World Trade Organisation (WTO) member states to search for alternative solutions. This pressure has directed countries’ attention and efforts towards bilateral and regional trade arrangements as an immediate intervention to resolve some of the stagnated issues at the multilateral level. Despite the pressure and the hurry for regional trade liberalization, concluding a comprehensive agreement both at bilateral, regional and multilateral negotiations remains complex to achieve given the existence of varying economic divergences among countries. With regard to the proposed tripartite Free Trade Area (T-FTA) among COMESA-EAC and SADC member states, it is one among the many regional economic communities (RECs) that have emerged over the years. This paper tries to examine some of the complexities and inter-linkages in reaching a tripartite free trade agre...

The Journal of African Development, 2016

The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the ... more The paper estimates determinants of Uganda's trade flows and compares the performance of the different trade blocs on Uganda's trade. The empirical question is whether Uganda's trade is getting more integrated in the EAC region or is still dominated by other trading blocs. The augmented gravity model is applied. The panel data are extracted from COMTRADE for the period 2001 - 2009. Uganda's trade flows have conspicuously adjusted to the gravitational forces of the EAC during the progress of the integration. Whereas exports are being integrated more into the EAC and COMESA regions, imports are also integrated into these regions as well as in the Asian and EU trading blocs. To continue consolidating and deepening the trade gains within the EAC, Uganda should implement the frameworks, protocols and provisions of the treaty and seek industrialization as a priority.

The paper aims at mapping out the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda with a view to ide... more The paper aims at mapping out the Mobile Telecommunications Industry in Uganda with a view to identify areas for further research in a systematic and more detailed way. The economic and social upgrading/downgrading conceptual framework to guide the Capturing the Gains research agenda was used in this process. The paper briefly presents the mobile phone domains, emphasising the relevant parts for Uganda, which include; software development, sales and marketing, mobile service provision and end use developmental elements. The paper gives highlights of the growth and explosion of the mobile telecommunications sector in the last two decades underpinning the drivers of this growth, which include deregulation, liberalisation, technology advancement, the growing population and Uganda’s strategic hinterland location. It is demonstrated that Mobile-phone Network Operators (MNOs) in Uganda are owned by companies with strong global value chains, which spread continentally to other African coun...

The hindrances to the gainful participation of least developed countries (LDCs) in international ... more The hindrances to the gainful participation of least developed countries (LDCs) in international trade are predominantly domestic supply related constraints rather than foreign market access. These constraints include variable productive capacity, economic infrastructure bottlenecks, and inability to meet international quality standards. In recognition of such challenges facing LDCs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the “Aid for Trade” (AFT) initiative in 2005 to coordinate international support for strengthening trade capacity in LDCs. Looking at the case of Uganda, we initially examine the role of overall Official Development Assistance (ODA) in driving Uganda’s external trade and then specifically that of AFT in strengthening national trade capacity. Although we find reasonable alignment between aid and national development priorities, there is, as yet, very little evidence of a robust aid impact especially on export capability vis-a-vis that of import. The paper under...

The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integra... more The paper empirically examines the implications of the implementation of the EAC regional integration on the Ugandan economy. Specifically, it analyses the likely effects of the asymmetric tariff reduction on the macro variables and quantifies the sectoral growth effects on the industrial, agricultural and services sectors. It adopts the General Equilibrium Model (CGE) for the analysis based on the Uganda 2007 Social Accounting Matrix. The primary policy simulation is the asymmetric reduction of internal tariffs across East African countries under assumptions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production. Other policy simulations that change these assumptions are analysed. Results indicate that the aggregate impact of internal tariff reduction under conditions of unemployment and free movement of factors of production is positive with average GDP growth improving by up to 0.3 percentage points over the period 2008 – 2021. However, the reduction in tariffs has negative i...

Policy briefs, 2012

The privatization of veterinary extension services delivery in Uganda opened more opportunities f... more The privatization of veterinary extension services delivery in Uganda opened more opportunities for the private sector in the provision of extension services and supply of essential inputs demanded by a growing and more dynamic dairy sector. Consequently, the number of agents profoundly increased – and the markets became flooded with new and untested inputs (from the unregulated private sector). One big setback emerging – relates to the growing efficacy doubts and negative experiences (including losing money or animals) associated with use of inputs on the market, contributing to non-adoption of essential inputs. Selective adoption of essential inputs in dairy farming is also wide spread. The way forward requires impartation of proper and recommended skills in livestock husbandry practices. This will entail building new information dissemination networks by strengthening the capacity to channel veterinary extension support services via farmer groups centred information delivery inst...

Poorly functioning public sector institutions and weak governance are major constraints to growth... more Poorly functioning public sector institutions and weak governance are major constraints to growth and equitable development in many developing countries. It is imperative that as Uganda confronts its development challenge, it must address the capacity deficits in the policy environment and implementation for sustainable development results and outcomes. Capacity building is important to Uganda, given the mixed performance that the country has had in the past 30 years. In particular, this study notes success in macroeconomic stability, consolidating security and the restructuring of the government during the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP). Similarly, the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) supported poverty reduction by building the capacity of social sectors to expand agricultural production and education and health access. The success of the ERP and the PEAP is largely attributed to donor support in capacity-building effort in institutions such as the Ministry of Finance Plan...