Isti Rodiah - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Isti Rodiah

Research paper thumbnail of Infection and transmission risks of COVID-19 in schools and their contribution to population infections in Germany: A retrospective observational study using nationwide and regional health and education agency notification data

PLOS Medicine

Background School-level infection control measures in Germany during the early Coronavirus Diseas... more Background School-level infection control measures in Germany during the early Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic differed across the 16 federal states and lacked a dependable evidence base, with available evidence limited to regional data restricted to short phases of the pandemic. This study aimed to assess the (a) infection risks in students and staff; (b) transmission risks and routes in schools; (c) effects of school-level infection control measures on school and population infection dynamics; and (d) contribution of contacts in schools to population cases. Methods and findings For this retrospective observational study, we used German federal state (NUTS-2) and county (NUTS-3) data from public health and education agencies from March 2020 to April 2022. We assessed (a) infection risk as cumulative risk and crude risk ratios and (b) secondary attack rates (SARs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). We used (c) multiple regression analysis for the effects of infection co...

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the gap – estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic dise... more Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic diseases and a modelling platform to rapidly incorporate panel estimates.We evaluated how a cross-sectional analysis of 9922 participants of the MuSPAD study in June/July 2022 combined with a newly developed modelling platform could bridge the gap and analyzed antibody levels, neutralizing serum activity and interferon-gamma release response of serum samples. We categorized the population into four groups with differing protection against severe course of disease (validated by neutralizing serum activity), and found that 30% were in the group with highest protection, and 85% in either the highest categories or second highest group regarding protection level.Estimated hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2 were predicted to be between 30 to 300% of the peak in 02/2021 dependent on assumed variant characteristics. We showed the feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel able to evaluate complex endpoin...

Research paper thumbnail of Szenarien für den Verlauf der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie im Winter 2022/23 - Ergebnisse eines Workshops des Modellierungsnetzes für schwere Infektionskrankheiten (Modellierungsnetz)

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Sep 29, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Implementing the Lolli-Method and pooled RT-qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in schools: a pilot project

Infection

Purpose School closures have been used as part of lockdown strategies to contain the spread of SA... more Purpose School closures have been used as part of lockdown strategies to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, adversely affecting children’s health and education. To ensure the accessibility of educational institutions without exposing society to the risk of increased transmissions, it is essential to establish SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies that are child-friendly, scalable and implementable in a daily school routine. Self-sampling using non-invasive saliva swabs combined with pooled RT-qPCR testing (Lolli-Method) has been proven to be a sensitive method for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Methods We conducted a pilot project in Cologne, Germany, designed to determine the feasibility of a large-scale rollout of the Lolli-Method for testing without any additional on-site medical staff in schools. Over a period of three weeks, students from 22 schools were sampled using the Lolli-Method. At the end of the project, teachers were asked to evaluate the overall acceptance of the project. Result...

Research paper thumbnail of Immunity after COVID-19 vaccination: protocol for a scoping review

The objective of the planned scoping review is to provide an overview on the existing literature ... more The objective of the planned scoping review is to provide an overview on the existing literature on immune response and long-term efficacy outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination, and to map this evidence according to the examined populations, specific vaccines, immunity parameters and their way of determining relevant long-term outcomes and the availability of mapping between immune reactivity and relevant outcomes. We will limit inclusion to literature on the four vaccines currently authorized by the EMA and vaccines authorized in at least 10 countries worldwide: • Comirnaty [Pfizer / Biontech], • Spikevax [Moderna], and its equivalent TAK-919 [Moderna formulation, Takeda] • Vaxzevria [Oxford / AstraZeneca] and its equivalent Covishield [Oxford / AstraZeneca formulation, Serum Institute of India] • COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen [Ad26.COV2.S] • Sputnik V [Gamaleya] • Sputnik Light [Gamaleya] • BBIBP-CorV (Vero Cells) [Sinopharm (Beijing)] • CoronaVac [Sinovac] (COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell) ...

Research paper thumbnail of Infection and transmission risks in schools and contribution to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany – a retrospective observational study using nation-wide and regional health and education agency notification data

ABSTRACTIntroductionCurrently, information on infection and transmission risks of students and te... more ABSTRACTIntroductionCurrently, information on infection and transmission risks of students and teachers in schools, the effect of infection control measures for schools as well as the contribution of schools to the overall population transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany are limited to regional data sets restricted to short phases of the pandemic.MethodsWe used German federal state (NUTS-2) and county (NUTS-3) data from national and regional public health and education agencies to assess infection risk and secondary attack rates (SARs) from March 2020 to October 2021 in Germany. We used multiple regression analysis and infection dynamic modelling, accounting for urbanity, socioeconomic factors, local population infection dynamics and age-specific underdetection to investigate the effects of infection control measures.ResultsWe included (1) nation-wide NUTS-2 level data from calendar weeks (W) 46-50/2020 and W08-40/2021 with 304676 infections in students and 32992 in teachers; (2) NU...

Research paper thumbnail of Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for S... more IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.MethodsWe developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study.R...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatially Inhomogeneous Host-Vector Disease Transmission using Configuration Space Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent Based Modeling Disease Transmission in The Framework Configuration Spaces

This thesis considers a microscopic model for disease transmission based on configuration space a... more This thesis considers a microscopic model for disease transmission based on configuration space analysis. Two types of disease spreading are considered in this research, i.e. the direct contact transmission and the host-vector transmission. We also model transmission with birth, death, and mobility of particles. Using Vlasov scaling, we obtain the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected compartment in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a spatial disease model. The particle and kinetic models are investigated numerically. The time fractional derivative is applied to the kinetic description and describes the sub-diffusion process in disease dynamics. Furthermore, the estimation of the basic reproduction ratio is developed from the kinetic equations. In this approach, we may obtain the local and global threshold of

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent Based Modeling of Spatially Inhomogeneous Host-Vector Disease Transmission

Mathematics in Industry, 2019

In this article we consider a microscopic model for host-vector disease transmission based on con... more In this article we consider a microscopic model for host-vector disease transmission based on configuration space analysis. Using Vlasov scaling we obtain the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected compartments in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a spatial SISUV model.

Research paper thumbnail of An analytic method for agent-based modeling of spatially inhomogeneous disease dynamics

AIP Conference Proceedings, 2017

In this article we set up a microscopic model for the spread of an infectious disease based on co... more In this article we set up a microscopic model for the spread of an infectious disease based on configuration space analysis. Using the so-called Vlasov scaling we obtained the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected individuals (particles) in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a 'spatial' SIS-model. The equations showing up in the limiting system are of the type which is know in literature as Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov type.

Research paper thumbnail of Numerical simulation of agent-based modeling of spatially inhomogeneous disease dynamics

Research paper thumbnail of Heat loss model for flow assurance in a deep water riser

Research paper thumbnail of Seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus infection in rural and urban populations, Tunisia

Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2012

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the leading agents of acute hepatitis. This study investigated ... more Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the leading agents of acute hepatitis. This study investigated the prevalence and risk factors of HEV infection in the Tunisian adult general population, either in blood donors (n = 687) or in patients hospitalized for acute hepatitis (n = 202). The mode of transmission differed between these two populations: contact with animals and living in a rural habitat were the main risk factors for being in contact with HEV in asymptomatic blood donors, while HEV was contracted through contaminated water in symptomatic cases. HEV seroprevalence in adult blood donors in Tunisia was relatively low (5.4%) and increased with age.

Research paper thumbnail of Infection and transmission risks of COVID-19 in schools and their contribution to population infections in Germany: A retrospective observational study using nationwide and regional health and education agency notification data

PLOS Medicine

Background School-level infection control measures in Germany during the early Coronavirus Diseas... more Background School-level infection control measures in Germany during the early Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic differed across the 16 federal states and lacked a dependable evidence base, with available evidence limited to regional data restricted to short phases of the pandemic. This study aimed to assess the (a) infection risks in students and staff; (b) transmission risks and routes in schools; (c) effects of school-level infection control measures on school and population infection dynamics; and (d) contribution of contacts in schools to population cases. Methods and findings For this retrospective observational study, we used German federal state (NUTS-2) and county (NUTS-3) data from public health and education agencies from March 2020 to April 2022. We assessed (a) infection risk as cumulative risk and crude risk ratios and (b) secondary attack rates (SARs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). We used (c) multiple regression analysis for the effects of infection co...

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the gap – estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic dise... more Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic diseases and a modelling platform to rapidly incorporate panel estimates.We evaluated how a cross-sectional analysis of 9922 participants of the MuSPAD study in June/July 2022 combined with a newly developed modelling platform could bridge the gap and analyzed antibody levels, neutralizing serum activity and interferon-gamma release response of serum samples. We categorized the population into four groups with differing protection against severe course of disease (validated by neutralizing serum activity), and found that 30% were in the group with highest protection, and 85% in either the highest categories or second highest group regarding protection level.Estimated hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2 were predicted to be between 30 to 300% of the peak in 02/2021 dependent on assumed variant characteristics. We showed the feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel able to evaluate complex endpoin...

Research paper thumbnail of Szenarien für den Verlauf der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie im Winter 2022/23 - Ergebnisse eines Workshops des Modellierungsnetzes für schwere Infektionskrankheiten (Modellierungsnetz)

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Sep 29, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Implementing the Lolli-Method and pooled RT-qPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in schools: a pilot project

Infection

Purpose School closures have been used as part of lockdown strategies to contain the spread of SA... more Purpose School closures have been used as part of lockdown strategies to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, adversely affecting children’s health and education. To ensure the accessibility of educational institutions without exposing society to the risk of increased transmissions, it is essential to establish SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies that are child-friendly, scalable and implementable in a daily school routine. Self-sampling using non-invasive saliva swabs combined with pooled RT-qPCR testing (Lolli-Method) has been proven to be a sensitive method for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Methods We conducted a pilot project in Cologne, Germany, designed to determine the feasibility of a large-scale rollout of the Lolli-Method for testing without any additional on-site medical staff in schools. Over a period of three weeks, students from 22 schools were sampled using the Lolli-Method. At the end of the project, teachers were asked to evaluate the overall acceptance of the project. Result...

Research paper thumbnail of Immunity after COVID-19 vaccination: protocol for a scoping review

The objective of the planned scoping review is to provide an overview on the existing literature ... more The objective of the planned scoping review is to provide an overview on the existing literature on immune response and long-term efficacy outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination, and to map this evidence according to the examined populations, specific vaccines, immunity parameters and their way of determining relevant long-term outcomes and the availability of mapping between immune reactivity and relevant outcomes. We will limit inclusion to literature on the four vaccines currently authorized by the EMA and vaccines authorized in at least 10 countries worldwide: • Comirnaty [Pfizer / Biontech], • Spikevax [Moderna], and its equivalent TAK-919 [Moderna formulation, Takeda] • Vaxzevria [Oxford / AstraZeneca] and its equivalent Covishield [Oxford / AstraZeneca formulation, Serum Institute of India] • COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen [Ad26.COV2.S] • Sputnik V [Gamaleya] • Sputnik Light [Gamaleya] • BBIBP-CorV (Vero Cells) [Sinopharm (Beijing)] • CoronaVac [Sinovac] (COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell) ...

Research paper thumbnail of Infection and transmission risks in schools and contribution to the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany – a retrospective observational study using nation-wide and regional health and education agency notification data

ABSTRACTIntroductionCurrently, information on infection and transmission risks of students and te... more ABSTRACTIntroductionCurrently, information on infection and transmission risks of students and teachers in schools, the effect of infection control measures for schools as well as the contribution of schools to the overall population transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany are limited to regional data sets restricted to short phases of the pandemic.MethodsWe used German federal state (NUTS-2) and county (NUTS-3) data from national and regional public health and education agencies to assess infection risk and secondary attack rates (SARs) from March 2020 to October 2021 in Germany. We used multiple regression analysis and infection dynamic modelling, accounting for urbanity, socioeconomic factors, local population infection dynamics and age-specific underdetection to investigate the effects of infection control measures.ResultsWe included (1) nation-wide NUTS-2 level data from calendar weeks (W) 46-50/2020 and W08-40/2021 with 304676 infections in students and 32992 in teachers; (2) NU...

Research paper thumbnail of Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for S... more IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.MethodsWe developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study.R...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatially Inhomogeneous Host-Vector Disease Transmission using Configuration Space Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent Based Modeling Disease Transmission in The Framework Configuration Spaces

This thesis considers a microscopic model for disease transmission based on configuration space a... more This thesis considers a microscopic model for disease transmission based on configuration space analysis. Two types of disease spreading are considered in this research, i.e. the direct contact transmission and the host-vector transmission. We also model transmission with birth, death, and mobility of particles. Using Vlasov scaling, we obtain the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected compartment in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a spatial disease model. The particle and kinetic models are investigated numerically. The time fractional derivative is applied to the kinetic description and describes the sub-diffusion process in disease dynamics. Furthermore, the estimation of the basic reproduction ratio is developed from the kinetic equations. In this approach, we may obtain the local and global threshold of

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent Based Modeling of Spatially Inhomogeneous Host-Vector Disease Transmission

Mathematics in Industry, 2019

In this article we consider a microscopic model for host-vector disease transmission based on con... more In this article we consider a microscopic model for host-vector disease transmission based on configuration space analysis. Using Vlasov scaling we obtain the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected compartments in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a spatial SISUV model.

Research paper thumbnail of An analytic method for agent-based modeling of spatially inhomogeneous disease dynamics

AIP Conference Proceedings, 2017

In this article we set up a microscopic model for the spread of an infectious disease based on co... more In this article we set up a microscopic model for the spread of an infectious disease based on configuration space analysis. Using the so-called Vlasov scaling we obtained the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of susceptible and infected individuals (particles) in space. The resulting system of equations can be seen as a generalization to a 'spatial' SIS-model. The equations showing up in the limiting system are of the type which is know in literature as Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov type.

Research paper thumbnail of Numerical simulation of agent-based modeling of spatially inhomogeneous disease dynamics

Research paper thumbnail of Heat loss model for flow assurance in a deep water riser

Research paper thumbnail of Seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus infection in rural and urban populations, Tunisia

Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2012

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the leading agents of acute hepatitis. This study investigated ... more Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the leading agents of acute hepatitis. This study investigated the prevalence and risk factors of HEV infection in the Tunisian adult general population, either in blood donors (n = 687) or in patients hospitalized for acute hepatitis (n = 202). The mode of transmission differed between these two populations: contact with animals and living in a rural habitat were the main risk factors for being in contact with HEV in asymptomatic blood donors, while HEV was contracted through contaminated water in symptomatic cases. HEV seroprevalence in adult blood donors in Tunisia was relatively low (5.4%) and increased with age.