Jonathon Baron - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jonathon Baron

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamic Constraint and the Politics of Nuclear Attitudes

Persuasive messaging about both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has been a recurrent feature o... more Persuasive messaging about both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has been a recurrent feature of the last 70 years, yet little scholarship considers how mass publics relate these technologies, or how messaging about one might influence attitudes toward the other. I seek to understand this relationship using formal causal models to guide qualitative and quantitative empirical studies that show that nuclear attitudes are related. New graphical models formalize the relationship in nuclear attitudes under multiple interpretations of Converse (1964)’s “dynamic constraint,” resolving conceptual issues in prior formalizations producing unnecessarily pessimistic conclusions about identification (Coppock and Green, 2020). These new frameworks clarify how pro- and anti-nuclear elites’ historical persuasion efforts sought to influence public support for nuclear power by altering mass associations between the technologies. The frameworks also motivate an adaptively conducted multi-stage exper...

Research paper thumbnail of Can Shared Questions Help to Better Reweight Nonrepresentative Samples?

Research paper thumbnail of Persuading the Public about Nuclear Weapons

Research paper thumbnail of Pre-Analysis Plan for "Public opinion on nuclear energy and nuclear weapons: The attitudinal nexus in the United States

Research paper thumbnail of README.txt

Research paper thumbnail of TPNW_AWARE_RAW.CSV

Research paper thumbnail of Replication Data for: Anti-Normative Messaging, Group Cues,and the Nuclear Ban Treaty

Replication data, scripts, and supplementary materials for "Anti-Normative Messaging, Group ... more Replication data, scripts, and supplementary materials for "Anti-Normative Messaging, Group Cues,and the Nuclear Ban Treaty" (Herzog, Baron, and Gibbons; forthcoming).

Research paper thumbnail of HBG_INSTRUMENT.PDF

Research paper thumbnail of helper_functions.R

Research paper thumbnail of hbg_cleaning.R

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and the Relationship Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons Confirmatory Trial

Research paper thumbnail of Replication of Press, et al. (2013), "Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons

Research paper thumbnail of TPNW_ORIG_INCOME.CSV

Research paper thumbnail of hbg_analysis.R

Research paper thumbnail of run_hbg_replication.R

Research paper thumbnail of Replication Data for: A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects who Fail a Manipulation Check

This repository mirrors the Yale ISPS Data Archive containing the relevant replication files pert... more This repository mirrors the Yale ISPS Data Archive containing the relevant replication files pertaining to Aronow, Baron, Pinson (2018), "A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects who Fail a Manipulation Check." https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d150. Please direct inquiries to isps@yale.edu.

Research paper thumbnail of Pre-Analysis Plan for Political Persuasion on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Evidence from Parallel Survey Experiments in the United States and Japan

Research paper thumbnail of Japanese Public Opinion, Political Persuasion, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and Discrimination Against Hypothetical Job Candidates in Japan: A Resumé-Based Survey Experiment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

A substantial literature addresses the various forms of discrimination in the Japanese labor mark... more A substantial literature addresses the various forms of discrimination in the Japanese labor market, but little experimental work investigates these prejudices. Here, I present experimental evidence from a national survey of Japanese adults in order to assess both professional and social discrimination against hypothetical job applicants. Leveraging the prevalence of standardized <i>rirekisho</i> resumé forms, I present respondents with a hypothetical applicant’s <i>rirekisho</i>, with key attributes such as gender, nationality, and schooling location randomized. Because adolescents living in regions affected by the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster are now entering the labor market as recent college graduates, the experiment also afforded the opportunity to assess labor-market discrimination against individuals perceived to have been exposed to radioactive fallout (proxied by primary-school location). Three key findings emerged from the experimental trial: 1.) female applicants were universally preferred over male applicants, suggesting positive public attitudes toward increased labor-market engagement by female college graduates; 2.) there is no evidence of discrimination against individuals who were living in Fukushima at the time of the 2011 accident in this context; and, 3.) there is significant discrimination against non-Japanese applicants in both professional and social contexts, and the effect of Korean nationality is consistently negative and significant. Together, these results suggest some cause for optimism regarding the treatment of some potentially marginalized groups, while nonetheless provoking substantial concern for others.

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and the Relationship Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

The technical linkages between nuclear power and nuclear weapons have driven policymaking on civi... more The technical linkages between nuclear power and nuclear weapons have driven policymaking on civilian nuclear energy since the birth of the commercial industry in the 1950s. However, surprisingly little research considers how the two technologies may be linked in mass attitudes. Such inattentiveness is especially problematic in an era where nuclear power continues to be promoted internationally as a means of combating climate change, even as nonproliferation remains a core objective of US foreign policy. In this paper, I use survey experiments run in parallel in the United States and Japan to propose a previously under-theorized explanation of how mass publics relate civilian and military nuclear technologies. Using a multi-staged experimental design with machine-learning methods for efficiency, I construct effective persuasive treatments to assess the effects of persuasive messaging on attitudes toward nuclear power and nuclear weapons in both countries. I find that attitudes toward the two technologies are correlated in both countries, and that negative persuasive messaging yields cross-domain effects among US citizens, providing novel evidence of functional interdependence. Japanese citizens, on the contrary, are resistant to persuasive messaging on nuclear technologies, and show no signs of attitudinal spillover. Together, then, these experiments offer important new insight into the nature of attitudinal constraint among the US mass public, while underscoring the distinctions in constraint across comparative cases.

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamic Constraint and the Politics of Nuclear Attitudes

Persuasive messaging about both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has been a recurrent feature o... more Persuasive messaging about both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons has been a recurrent feature of the last 70 years, yet little scholarship considers how mass publics relate these technologies, or how messaging about one might influence attitudes toward the other. I seek to understand this relationship using formal causal models to guide qualitative and quantitative empirical studies that show that nuclear attitudes are related. New graphical models formalize the relationship in nuclear attitudes under multiple interpretations of Converse (1964)’s “dynamic constraint,” resolving conceptual issues in prior formalizations producing unnecessarily pessimistic conclusions about identification (Coppock and Green, 2020). These new frameworks clarify how pro- and anti-nuclear elites’ historical persuasion efforts sought to influence public support for nuclear power by altering mass associations between the technologies. The frameworks also motivate an adaptively conducted multi-stage exper...

Research paper thumbnail of Can Shared Questions Help to Better Reweight Nonrepresentative Samples?

Research paper thumbnail of Persuading the Public about Nuclear Weapons

Research paper thumbnail of Pre-Analysis Plan for "Public opinion on nuclear energy and nuclear weapons: The attitudinal nexus in the United States

Research paper thumbnail of README.txt

Research paper thumbnail of TPNW_AWARE_RAW.CSV

Research paper thumbnail of Replication Data for: Anti-Normative Messaging, Group Cues,and the Nuclear Ban Treaty

Replication data, scripts, and supplementary materials for "Anti-Normative Messaging, Group ... more Replication data, scripts, and supplementary materials for "Anti-Normative Messaging, Group Cues,and the Nuclear Ban Treaty" (Herzog, Baron, and Gibbons; forthcoming).

Research paper thumbnail of HBG_INSTRUMENT.PDF

Research paper thumbnail of helper_functions.R

Research paper thumbnail of hbg_cleaning.R

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and the Relationship Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons Confirmatory Trial

Research paper thumbnail of Replication of Press, et al. (2013), "Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons

Research paper thumbnail of TPNW_ORIG_INCOME.CSV

Research paper thumbnail of hbg_analysis.R

Research paper thumbnail of run_hbg_replication.R

Research paper thumbnail of Replication Data for: A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects who Fail a Manipulation Check

This repository mirrors the Yale ISPS Data Archive containing the relevant replication files pert... more This repository mirrors the Yale ISPS Data Archive containing the relevant replication files pertaining to Aronow, Baron, Pinson (2018), "A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects who Fail a Manipulation Check." https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d150. Please direct inquiries to isps@yale.edu.

Research paper thumbnail of Pre-Analysis Plan for Political Persuasion on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: Evidence from Parallel Survey Experiments in the United States and Japan

Research paper thumbnail of Japanese Public Opinion, Political Persuasion, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and Discrimination Against Hypothetical Job Candidates in Japan: A Resumé-Based Survey Experiment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

A substantial literature addresses the various forms of discrimination in the Japanese labor mark... more A substantial literature addresses the various forms of discrimination in the Japanese labor market, but little experimental work investigates these prejudices. Here, I present experimental evidence from a national survey of Japanese adults in order to assess both professional and social discrimination against hypothetical job applicants. Leveraging the prevalence of standardized <i>rirekisho</i> resumé forms, I present respondents with a hypothetical applicant’s <i>rirekisho</i>, with key attributes such as gender, nationality, and schooling location randomized. Because adolescents living in regions affected by the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster are now entering the labor market as recent college graduates, the experiment also afforded the opportunity to assess labor-market discrimination against individuals perceived to have been exposed to radioactive fallout (proxied by primary-school location). Three key findings emerged from the experimental trial: 1.) female applicants were universally preferred over male applicants, suggesting positive public attitudes toward increased labor-market engagement by female college graduates; 2.) there is no evidence of discrimination against individuals who were living in Fukushima at the time of the 2011 accident in this context; and, 3.) there is significant discrimination against non-Japanese applicants in both professional and social contexts, and the effect of Korean nationality is consistently negative and significant. Together, these results suggest some cause for optimism regarding the treatment of some potentially marginalized groups, while nonetheless provoking substantial concern for others.

Research paper thumbnail of Mass Attitudes and the Relationship Between Nuclear Power and Nuclear Weapons

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

The technical linkages between nuclear power and nuclear weapons have driven policymaking on civi... more The technical linkages between nuclear power and nuclear weapons have driven policymaking on civilian nuclear energy since the birth of the commercial industry in the 1950s. However, surprisingly little research considers how the two technologies may be linked in mass attitudes. Such inattentiveness is especially problematic in an era where nuclear power continues to be promoted internationally as a means of combating climate change, even as nonproliferation remains a core objective of US foreign policy. In this paper, I use survey experiments run in parallel in the United States and Japan to propose a previously under-theorized explanation of how mass publics relate civilian and military nuclear technologies. Using a multi-staged experimental design with machine-learning methods for efficiency, I construct effective persuasive treatments to assess the effects of persuasive messaging on attitudes toward nuclear power and nuclear weapons in both countries. I find that attitudes toward the two technologies are correlated in both countries, and that negative persuasive messaging yields cross-domain effects among US citizens, providing novel evidence of functional interdependence. Japanese citizens, on the contrary, are resistant to persuasive messaging on nuclear technologies, and show no signs of attitudinal spillover. Together, then, these experiments offer important new insight into the nature of attitudinal constraint among the US mass public, while underscoring the distinctions in constraint across comparative cases.