Jacques Mazier - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jacques Mazier

International audienceThe financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in t... more International audienceThe financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in the nineties is characterized by the quest for higher shareholders’ profitability, increased financial accumulation at the expense of productive accumulation and the use of leverage effects. Stock Flow Consistent models à la Godley and Lavoie are well suited to analyze this growth regime. We retain two types of closures for non financial companies, either an indebtedness norm or an own funds norm. The paper studies the dynamics of these two models with the aid of simulations and supply or demand shocks, or stemming from the financial sector. Their fitness to take into account financial cycles and over indebtedness typical of financialized growth may thus be analyzed. The model with the indebtedness norm generates short-term financial cycles which appear as the regulation mode of this growth regime with an asset price serving as an adjustment variable. The model with the own funds norm gen...

We analyze, in a unified theoretical framework, the two main models for equilibrium exchange rate... more We analyze, in a unified theoretical framework, the two main models for equilibrium exchange rate, namely, the BEER and the FEER approaches. In order to understand the interactions between them, we study in detail the temporal links between these two measures. Our results show that, in average, the BEER and the FEER are closely related. Yet, important differences can be observed for some countries and/or some periods of time. Therefore, we analyze some of the factors that may explain this disconnection, identifying several aspects which are able to alter the relation between the current account and the real effective exchange rate, and so, between the FEER and the BEER. Our analysis puts forward the structural changes in matter of competitiveness, the dynamics of foreign asset positions and valuation effects as explanations for the divergence.

Abstract: This paper investigates the temporal links between two models of equilibrium exchange r... more Abstract: This paper investigates the temporal links between two models of equilibrium exchange rate, namely the behavioral and the fundamental approaches. Our results show that, even though in the long-run they are closely related, important differences are observed for some countries and/or some periods. Contrary to previous contributions, we analyze the factors that explain this disconnection. We outline structural changes in matter of competitiveness, the dynamics of foreign assets and valuation effects as explanations. This novel evidence is important if the two approaches for assessing misalignments are used for policy decisions such as setting tariffs to cope with the “currency war”.

International audienceno abstrac

The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary unio... more The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds issuance. Three main results are found. Firstly, facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribu...

Revue économique, 2015

Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po. © Presses de Sciences Po. Tous ... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po. © Presses de Sciences Po. Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.

Revue de la régulation, 2014

In order to make the program work, it suffices to open the file using Eviews 7 or a more recent v... more In order to make the program work, it suffices to open the file using Eviews 7 or a more recent version. Once open, the program shows « dialog boxes » with default values (text or numbers). If the user wishes to change these values, she/he may easily do so (however, this does not guarantee the model will work). Afin de pouvoir faire tourner le programme il suffit d'ouvrir le fichier en utilisant la version 7 (ou plus récente) d'EViews. Une fois ouvert, le programme sort de « boîtes de dialogue » avec des valeurs (texte ou chiffres) par défaut. Si l'utilisateur veut les changer il peut facilement le faire (cependant, ceci ne garantit pas que le modèle marchera).

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 2019

The crisis of the euro area has questioned the fairness, sustainability and viability of the curr... more The crisis of the euro area has questioned the fairness, sustainability and viability of the current setting of the European Monetary Union (EMU). In this article we use a four-country stock–flow consistent (SFC) model in the tradition of Godley/Lavoie (2007a) to examine to what extent an adaptation to Europe of Keynes's plan of a clearing union with bancor balances could help reduce the imbalances that, at least in part, drove the eurozone into crisis. Our simulation experiments suggest that the implementation of Keynes's ideas may conduct European countries to a stronger and more sustainable growth cycle.

Metroeconomica, 2018

The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in the EMU. This p... more The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in the EMU. This paper examines the exchange rate misalignments within the euro zone, using a FEER approach. To explore the consequences of these misalignments, we use an open economy SFC model with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds. Facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to misalignments, three sets of alternative economic policy are investigated: a policy-mix based on tax rebates to improve competitiveness; an increase in intra-European financing by banks of northern countries; and an issuance of Eurobonds to pool European sovereign debt.

The European Union has reached a critical juncture in dealing with the fallout from the 2008 fina... more The European Union has reached a critical juncture in dealing with the fallout from the 2008 financial meltdown that started in the USA and spread to engulf banks and the financial markets of Europe. The ensuing recession or stagnation in many member countries was compounded by austerity programs undertaken by national governments, in some cases as a precondition for rescue from potential bankruptcy. Europe's leaders took initiatives to strengthen financial systems but have been unable to secure a significant recovery of the European economy or avert growing divergences between member states in GDP per capita, unemployment rates and external-account balances. This memorandum written by participants of a 3-year research project on Europe and the world's socioeconomic future to 2030 (the AUGUR project) discusses possible ways out of prolonged stagnation and low growth. The current trajectory can trigger renewed crises of political-economic sclerosis in Europe and progressively undermine social standards and well-being. Such an outcome would strengthen the forces that aim to dismantle European integration. An overriding priority must be given to rebalancing the distribution of growth between different parts of Europe. Policies in R&D, competition and external trade must be reassessed with these objectives in view. EU finance for social programmes in lower-income countries is needed to support improvements in education, health and other public services that benefit social cohesion thereby securing the foundation for higher productivity and competitiveness.

Since the mid-1980s, the mismanagement of European economic policy has appeared as one of the mai... more Since the mid-1980s, the mismanagement of European economic policy has appeared as one of the main causes of the slow growth. After the brief 1998-2000 recovery, the blocking factors are again fully at play. The EU is all the more up against the wall as its enlargement to Eastern Europe represents an additional challenge. The EU is locked into a slow growth process and rising inequalities because of its institutional framework. Manifestations of its decline are multifarious. Most of the principles currently governing the EU are at issue. The welfare systems which appeared as one of the pillars of European societies have been gradually questioned. Alternative proposals are sketched out, laying first the emphasis on macroeconomic policies (European budget, ECB, wage policy, revival of the European Social Model). A new design of structural policies is proposed (an active research policy, an industrial policy, the reinforcement of public services, a preserved regional policy to assure c...

This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth for ... more This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies on the period 1982-2010. The estimation of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) are based on a FEER approach (Jeong and al. (2010) and Aflouk and al. (2010) and are extended to a larger panel. The relationship "misalignments-growth" is estimated using a PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) and GMM models. Our main results show that the impact of ERM on economic growth is nonlinear and positive. An overvaluation has a negative impact on growth while an undervaluation sustains growth until an estimated threshold (15.5% for emerging countries and 9% for developed countries). The coefficient is weaker for emerging countries (0.02) than for developed countries (0.08). Due to non linearity and coefficient's value, the undervaluation has a positive effect on growth even beyond the threshold. We also demonstrate that the impact of E...

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 2015

Based on the hypothesis that states that the underlying cause of the crisis in the euro area is a... more Based on the hypothesis that states that the underlying cause of the crisis in the euro area is a combination of exchange-rate misalignments with uncoordinated wage policies, we explore different exchange-rate arrangements that may help to reduce imbalances between surplus and deficit countries. These alternative configurations of the eurozone, which imply abandoning the common currency to a greater or a lesser extent, are tested with a theoretical four-country stock-flow consistent model. We find that although the different alternatives of a multi-speed Europe vary in their stability and macroeconomic effects, in all cases they produce better results compared to the one that has been observed since the introduction of the euro.

The Future of the Euro is an attempt by political economists to analyze the fundamental causes of... more The Future of the Euro is an attempt by political economists to analyze the fundamental causes of the euro crisis, determine how it can be fixed, and consider what likely futures lie ahead for the currency. The book makes three interrelated arguments that emphasize the primacy of political over economic factors.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances... more Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances have only been partially reduced since the burst of the crisis in 2007. They reflect, to some extent, exchange rate misalignments, an issue which has been frequently studied in the literature. However, these imbalances, which have reinforced in the 2000s, are also important inside the Euro area. This analysis cannot be reduced to simple estimates of euro misalignment at the world level because of the specific constraints that exist for each member of the Euro area. This article aims to examine to what extent the intra-European imbalances reflect exchange rate misalignments for each "national euro".

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

Since the mid-1990s, the world imbalances have increased significantly with a large US current de... more Since the mid-1990s, the world imbalances have increased significantly with a large US current deficit facing Asian surpluses, mainly Chinese. Since 2007, a partial reduction of these imbalances has been obtained, largely thanks to production's decreases, without large exchange rate adjustments. The Asian surpluses have remained important. The objective of this paper is to examine the exchange rate misalignments (ERM) of the main emerging countries in Asia and Latin America since the 1980s, so as to shed light on the 2000s by a long term analysis and compare with the industrialized countries' case. Our results confirm that ERM have been reduced since the mid-2000s at the world level, but the dollar remained overvalued against the East Asian countries, except the yen. Chinese, Indian and Brazilian exchange rate policies have been much contrasted since the 1980s. The Indian rupee has been more often overvalued while a more balance situation prevailed in Brazil only since the 2000s. The Latin American countries have faced wider and more dispersed ERM and current imbalances than East Asian countries. But Argentina, Chile and Uruguay benefits now of undervalued currencies while Mexico is closer to equilibrium.

Revue économique, 2002

paris13.fr Ce travail s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un rapport CNRS « Flexibilité du travail et mobil... more paris13.fr Ce travail s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un rapport CNRS « Flexibilité du travail et mobilité du capital dans l'union économique et monétaire européenne », 2001.

Revue économique, 2003

Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). © Presses de Scien... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). © Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.

International audienceThe financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in t... more International audienceThe financialized growth rate that settled in most developed economies in the nineties is characterized by the quest for higher shareholders’ profitability, increased financial accumulation at the expense of productive accumulation and the use of leverage effects. Stock Flow Consistent models à la Godley and Lavoie are well suited to analyze this growth regime. We retain two types of closures for non financial companies, either an indebtedness norm or an own funds norm. The paper studies the dynamics of these two models with the aid of simulations and supply or demand shocks, or stemming from the financial sector. Their fitness to take into account financial cycles and over indebtedness typical of financialized growth may thus be analyzed. The model with the indebtedness norm generates short-term financial cycles which appear as the regulation mode of this growth regime with an asset price serving as an adjustment variable. The model with the own funds norm gen...

We analyze, in a unified theoretical framework, the two main models for equilibrium exchange rate... more We analyze, in a unified theoretical framework, the two main models for equilibrium exchange rate, namely, the BEER and the FEER approaches. In order to understand the interactions between them, we study in detail the temporal links between these two measures. Our results show that, in average, the BEER and the FEER are closely related. Yet, important differences can be observed for some countries and/or some periods of time. Therefore, we analyze some of the factors that may explain this disconnection, identifying several aspects which are able to alter the relation between the current account and the real effective exchange rate, and so, between the FEER and the BEER. Our analysis puts forward the structural changes in matter of competitiveness, the dynamics of foreign asset positions and valuation effects as explanations for the divergence.

Abstract: This paper investigates the temporal links between two models of equilibrium exchange r... more Abstract: This paper investigates the temporal links between two models of equilibrium exchange rate, namely the behavioral and the fundamental approaches. Our results show that, even though in the long-run they are closely related, important differences are observed for some countries and/or some periods. Contrary to previous contributions, we analyze the factors that explain this disconnection. We outline structural changes in matter of competitiveness, the dynamics of foreign assets and valuation effects as explanations. This novel evidence is important if the two approaches for assessing misalignments are used for policy decisions such as setting tariffs to cope with the “currency war”.

International audienceno abstrac

The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary unio... more The euro crisis shed lights on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, it remains very few efficient alternative mechanisms. At the level of the whole eurozone the euro is close to its equilibrium parity. But the euro is strongly overvalued for Southern European countries, France included, and largely undervalued for Northern European countries, especially Germany. This paper gives a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and examines the evolution of competitiveness. In a second step, we use a two-country SFC model of a monetary union with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds issuance. Three main results are found. Firstly, facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to exchange rates misalignments, increasing intra-European financing by banks of northern countries or other institutions could contribu...

Revue économique, 2015

Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po. © Presses de Sciences Po. Tous ... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po. © Presses de Sciences Po. Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.

Revue de la régulation, 2014

In order to make the program work, it suffices to open the file using Eviews 7 or a more recent v... more In order to make the program work, it suffices to open the file using Eviews 7 or a more recent version. Once open, the program shows « dialog boxes » with default values (text or numbers). If the user wishes to change these values, she/he may easily do so (however, this does not guarantee the model will work). Afin de pouvoir faire tourner le programme il suffit d'ouvrir le fichier en utilisant la version 7 (ou plus récente) d'EViews. Une fois ouvert, le programme sort de « boîtes de dialogue » avec des valeurs (texte ou chiffres) par défaut. Si l'utilisateur veut les changer il peut facilement le faire (cependant, ceci ne garantit pas que le modèle marchera).

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 2019

The crisis of the euro area has questioned the fairness, sustainability and viability of the curr... more The crisis of the euro area has questioned the fairness, sustainability and viability of the current setting of the European Monetary Union (EMU). In this article we use a four-country stock–flow consistent (SFC) model in the tradition of Godley/Lavoie (2007a) to examine to what extent an adaptation to Europe of Keynes's plan of a clearing union with bancor balances could help reduce the imbalances that, at least in part, drove the eurozone into crisis. Our simulation experiments suggest that the implementation of Keynes's ideas may conduct European countries to a stronger and more sustainable growth cycle.

Metroeconomica, 2018

The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in the EMU. This p... more The euro crisis sheds light on the nature of alternative adjustment mechanisms in the EMU. This paper examines the exchange rate misalignments within the euro zone, using a FEER approach. To explore the consequences of these misalignments, we use an open economy SFC model with endogenous interest rates and Eurobonds. Facing a competitiveness loss in southern countries due to misalignments, three sets of alternative economic policy are investigated: a policy-mix based on tax rebates to improve competitiveness; an increase in intra-European financing by banks of northern countries; and an issuance of Eurobonds to pool European sovereign debt.

The European Union has reached a critical juncture in dealing with the fallout from the 2008 fina... more The European Union has reached a critical juncture in dealing with the fallout from the 2008 financial meltdown that started in the USA and spread to engulf banks and the financial markets of Europe. The ensuing recession or stagnation in many member countries was compounded by austerity programs undertaken by national governments, in some cases as a precondition for rescue from potential bankruptcy. Europe's leaders took initiatives to strengthen financial systems but have been unable to secure a significant recovery of the European economy or avert growing divergences between member states in GDP per capita, unemployment rates and external-account balances. This memorandum written by participants of a 3-year research project on Europe and the world's socioeconomic future to 2030 (the AUGUR project) discusses possible ways out of prolonged stagnation and low growth. The current trajectory can trigger renewed crises of political-economic sclerosis in Europe and progressively undermine social standards and well-being. Such an outcome would strengthen the forces that aim to dismantle European integration. An overriding priority must be given to rebalancing the distribution of growth between different parts of Europe. Policies in R&D, competition and external trade must be reassessed with these objectives in view. EU finance for social programmes in lower-income countries is needed to support improvements in education, health and other public services that benefit social cohesion thereby securing the foundation for higher productivity and competitiveness.

Since the mid-1980s, the mismanagement of European economic policy has appeared as one of the mai... more Since the mid-1980s, the mismanagement of European economic policy has appeared as one of the main causes of the slow growth. After the brief 1998-2000 recovery, the blocking factors are again fully at play. The EU is all the more up against the wall as its enlargement to Eastern Europe represents an additional challenge. The EU is locked into a slow growth process and rising inequalities because of its institutional framework. Manifestations of its decline are multifarious. Most of the principles currently governing the EU are at issue. The welfare systems which appeared as one of the pillars of European societies have been gradually questioned. Alternative proposals are sketched out, laying first the emphasis on macroeconomic policies (European budget, ECB, wage policy, revival of the European Social Model). A new design of structural policies is proposed (an active research policy, an industrial policy, the reinforcement of public services, a preserved regional policy to assure c...

This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth for ... more This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies on the period 1982-2010. The estimation of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) are based on a FEER approach (Jeong and al. (2010) and Aflouk and al. (2010) and are extended to a larger panel. The relationship "misalignments-growth" is estimated using a PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) and GMM models. Our main results show that the impact of ERM on economic growth is nonlinear and positive. An overvaluation has a negative impact on growth while an undervaluation sustains growth until an estimated threshold (15.5% for emerging countries and 9% for developed countries). The coefficient is weaker for emerging countries (0.02) than for developed countries (0.08). Due to non linearity and coefficient's value, the undervaluation has a positive effect on growth even beyond the threshold. We also demonstrate that the impact of E...

European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 2015

Based on the hypothesis that states that the underlying cause of the crisis in the euro area is a... more Based on the hypothesis that states that the underlying cause of the crisis in the euro area is a combination of exchange-rate misalignments with uncoordinated wage policies, we explore different exchange-rate arrangements that may help to reduce imbalances between surplus and deficit countries. These alternative configurations of the eurozone, which imply abandoning the common currency to a greater or a lesser extent, are tested with a theoretical four-country stock-flow consistent model. We find that although the different alternatives of a multi-speed Europe vary in their stability and macroeconomic effects, in all cases they produce better results compared to the one that has been observed since the introduction of the euro.

The Future of the Euro is an attempt by political economists to analyze the fundamental causes of... more The Future of the Euro is an attempt by political economists to analyze the fundamental causes of the euro crisis, determine how it can be fixed, and consider what likely futures lie ahead for the currency. The book makes three interrelated arguments that emphasize the primacy of political over economic factors.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances... more Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances have only been partially reduced since the burst of the crisis in 2007. They reflect, to some extent, exchange rate misalignments, an issue which has been frequently studied in the literature. However, these imbalances, which have reinforced in the 2000s, are also important inside the Euro area. This analysis cannot be reduced to simple estimates of euro misalignment at the world level because of the specific constraints that exist for each member of the Euro area. This article aims to examine to what extent the intra-European imbalances reflect exchange rate misalignments for each "national euro".

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

Since the mid-1990s, the world imbalances have increased significantly with a large US current de... more Since the mid-1990s, the world imbalances have increased significantly with a large US current deficit facing Asian surpluses, mainly Chinese. Since 2007, a partial reduction of these imbalances has been obtained, largely thanks to production's decreases, without large exchange rate adjustments. The Asian surpluses have remained important. The objective of this paper is to examine the exchange rate misalignments (ERM) of the main emerging countries in Asia and Latin America since the 1980s, so as to shed light on the 2000s by a long term analysis and compare with the industrialized countries' case. Our results confirm that ERM have been reduced since the mid-2000s at the world level, but the dollar remained overvalued against the East Asian countries, except the yen. Chinese, Indian and Brazilian exchange rate policies have been much contrasted since the 1980s. The Indian rupee has been more often overvalued while a more balance situation prevailed in Brazil only since the 2000s. The Latin American countries have faced wider and more dispersed ERM and current imbalances than East Asian countries. But Argentina, Chile and Uruguay benefits now of undervalued currencies while Mexico is closer to equilibrium.

Revue économique, 2002

paris13.fr Ce travail s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un rapport CNRS « Flexibilité du travail et mobil... more paris13.fr Ce travail s'inscrit dans le cadre d'un rapport CNRS « Flexibilité du travail et mobilité du capital dans l'union économique et monétaire européenne », 2001.

Revue économique, 2003

Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). © Presses de Scien... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). © Presses de Sciences Po (P.F.N.S.P.). Tous droits réservés pour tous pays. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit.