Jake Ansell - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jake Ansell

Risk Analysis

This paper studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business d... more This paper studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of SMEs, such as legal form, industry sector and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics. We find that the interdependence or contagion component defined on spatial and demographic characteristics is significant and that it improves the ability to predict defaults of non-start-ups in London. Furthermore, including contagion effects among SMEs alters the parameter estimates of risk determinants. The approach can be extended to other risk analysis applications where spatial risk may incorporate correlation based on other aspects.

European Journal of Operational Research, Dec 1, 2007

... Vilcassim and Jain (1991) showed how a continuous-time semi-Markov framework can provide valu... more ... Vilcassim and Jain (1991) showed how a continuous-time semi-Markov framework can provide valuable insights into the dynamics of household behaviour, whilst Jain and Vilcassim (1991) modelled inter-purchase times by means of a non-parametric Cox proportional hazard ...

Developments in Marketing Science: Proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2016

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2013

ABSTRACT This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company’s sta... more ABSTRACT This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company’s start-up and growth during a global economic crisis which had an impact on China which is designed to help the owners make better investment and operating decisions with limited data. Since there is limited data, simple regression model and binary regression model failed to generate satisfactory results, so an additive periodic time series model was built to forecast business orders and income. Since the transportation market is segmented by business type and transportation distance, a polynomial model and logistic curve model were constructed to forecast the growth trend of each segmented transportation market, and the seasonal influence function was fitted by seasonal ratio method. Although both of the models produced satisfactory results and showed very nearly the same of goodness-of-fit in the sample, the logistic model presented better forecasting performance out of the sample therefore closer to the reality. Additionally, by checking the development trajectory of the case company’s business and the financial crisis in 2008, the modeling and analysis suggest that the sample company is affected by national macroeconomic factors such as GDP and import & export, and this effect comes with a time lag of one to two years.

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's... more This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (2000) Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition. The study focuses on the US retail market. Five credit scoring methodologies: Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partitioning, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), are used on a sample of 195 healthy companies and 51 distressed firms over five time

ABSTRACT This study reveals for the first time the existence of a complementarity or ‘opposites a... more ABSTRACT This study reveals for the first time the existence of a complementarity or ‘opposites attract’ configuration in self-brand alignment. It also devises an original technique for incorporating complementarity configuration into an alignment measure. Tests reveal the measure compares favourably with existing self-congruence measures in terms of predicting behavioural outcomes.

... John Andrews 1 , Jake Ansell 2 , Pingchuan Ma 2 and Michael Phillips 3 ... In Figure 1 the to... more ... John Andrews 1 , Jake Ansell 2 , Pingchuan Ma 2 and Michael Phillips 3 ... In Figure 1 the top event is connected to intermediate gate events, G1 and G2 by an AND gate, gate A. G1 is connected to P1 and V1 by an OR gate, gate B, and G2 is connected to P2 and V2 by an OR ...

This paper constructs retail financial distress prediction models based on five key variables pre... more This paper constructs retail financial distress prediction models based on five key variables previously shown to have good classification properties (Hu and Ansell, 2005). Five credit scoring techniques—Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partitioning, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) were considered. A sample of 491 healthy firms and 68 distressed retail firms were studied over a five- year time period from 2000 to 2004. An international comparison analysis of three retail market models -USA, Europe and Japan- shows that the average accuracy rates are above 86.5% and the average AUROC values are above 0.79. Almost all market models display the best discriminating ability one year prior to financial distress. The US market model performs relatively better than European and Japanese models five years before financial distress. A composite model is constructed by combining data from US, European and Japanese markets. All five credit-scoring...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Proceedings of the international conference on APL - APL '93, 1993

ABSTRACT The paper explores the design and implementation of ARDA, an Expert System to analyse Re... more ABSTRACT The paper explores the design and implementation of ARDA, an Expert System to analyse Reliability Data. Initially the viability of the knowledge domain is explored. The philosophy of design of the system is discussed. Details of the implementation are described. There is discussion of extension of system to other statistical analyses and of using alternative inferential bases.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 2004

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1990

The practical problems encountered in Reliability Data Analysis are considered, particularly when... more The practical problems encountered in Reliability Data Analysis are considered, particularly when censoring is an important feature. Approaches to Statistical Data Analysis rather than specific techniques are described. Careful examination of the data is recommended using simple plotting methods. The importance of the objective of a Reliability Study is emphasized as this must always be kept in mind. Statistical methods should be a tool to achieve a given end. Three examples of Reliability Studies from three differen t areas of application are used for illustration. These examples consist of data collected from the field and do not cover laboratory-controlled testing. 337 Reliability Engineering and System Safety 0951-8320/90/$03.50

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1991

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), 1996

An academic directory and search engine.

Journal of Forecasting, 2009

... Technique YU-CHIANG HU1* AND JAKE ANSELL2 1 Barclays Capital, London, UK 2 Management School ... more ... Technique YU-CHIANG HU1* AND JAKE ANSELL2 1 Barclays Capital, London, UK 2 Management School and Economics, University of Edinburgh, UK ... domain. SMO is developed by Platt (1999) and it is a special form of the SVM. ...

European Journal of Operational Research, 2007

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (20... more This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (2000) 'Resource-Advantage (R-A) Theory of Competition'. The study focuses on the US retail market. Five credit scoring methodologies -Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partition, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization-are used on a sample of 195 healthy companies and 51 distressed firms over different time periods from 1994 to 2002.

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2010

Risk Analysis

This paper studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business d... more This paper studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of SMEs, such as legal form, industry sector and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics. We find that the interdependence or contagion component defined on spatial and demographic characteristics is significant and that it improves the ability to predict defaults of non-start-ups in London. Furthermore, including contagion effects among SMEs alters the parameter estimates of risk determinants. The approach can be extended to other risk analysis applications where spatial risk may incorporate correlation based on other aspects.

European Journal of Operational Research, Dec 1, 2007

... Vilcassim and Jain (1991) showed how a continuous-time semi-Markov framework can provide valu... more ... Vilcassim and Jain (1991) showed how a continuous-time semi-Markov framework can provide valuable insights into the dynamics of household behaviour, whilst Jain and Vilcassim (1991) modelled inter-purchase times by means of a non-parametric Cox proportional hazard ...

Developments in Marketing Science: Proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2016

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2013

ABSTRACT This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company’s sta... more ABSTRACT This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company’s start-up and growth during a global economic crisis which had an impact on China which is designed to help the owners make better investment and operating decisions with limited data. Since there is limited data, simple regression model and binary regression model failed to generate satisfactory results, so an additive periodic time series model was built to forecast business orders and income. Since the transportation market is segmented by business type and transportation distance, a polynomial model and logistic curve model were constructed to forecast the growth trend of each segmented transportation market, and the seasonal influence function was fitted by seasonal ratio method. Although both of the models produced satisfactory results and showed very nearly the same of goodness-of-fit in the sample, the logistic model presented better forecasting performance out of the sample therefore closer to the reality. Additionally, by checking the development trajectory of the case company’s business and the financial crisis in 2008, the modeling and analysis suggest that the sample company is affected by national macroeconomic factors such as GDP and import & export, and this effect comes with a time lag of one to two years.

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's... more This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (2000) Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition. The study focuses on the US retail market. Five credit scoring methodologies: Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partitioning, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), are used on a sample of 195 healthy companies and 51 distressed firms over five time

ABSTRACT This study reveals for the first time the existence of a complementarity or ‘opposites a... more ABSTRACT This study reveals for the first time the existence of a complementarity or ‘opposites attract’ configuration in self-brand alignment. It also devises an original technique for incorporating complementarity configuration into an alignment measure. Tests reveal the measure compares favourably with existing self-congruence measures in terms of predicting behavioural outcomes.

... John Andrews 1 , Jake Ansell 2 , Pingchuan Ma 2 and Michael Phillips 3 ... In Figure 1 the to... more ... John Andrews 1 , Jake Ansell 2 , Pingchuan Ma 2 and Michael Phillips 3 ... In Figure 1 the top event is connected to intermediate gate events, G1 and G2 by an AND gate, gate A. G1 is connected to P1 and V1 by an OR gate, gate B, and G2 is connected to P2 and V2 by an OR ...

This paper constructs retail financial distress prediction models based on five key variables pre... more This paper constructs retail financial distress prediction models based on five key variables previously shown to have good classification properties (Hu and Ansell, 2005). Five credit scoring techniques—Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partitioning, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) were considered. A sample of 491 healthy firms and 68 distressed retail firms were studied over a five- year time period from 2000 to 2004. An international comparison analysis of three retail market models -USA, Europe and Japan- shows that the average accuracy rates are above 86.5% and the average AUROC values are above 0.79. Almost all market models display the best discriminating ability one year prior to financial distress. The US market model performs relatively better than European and Japanese models five years before financial distress. A composite model is constructed by combining data from US, European and Japanese markets. All five credit-scoring...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Proceedings of the international conference on APL - APL '93, 1993

ABSTRACT The paper explores the design and implementation of ARDA, an Expert System to analyse Re... more ABSTRACT The paper explores the design and implementation of ARDA, an Expert System to analyse Reliability Data. Initially the viability of the knowledge domain is explored. The philosophy of design of the system is discussed. Details of the implementation are described. There is discussion of extension of system to other statistical analyses and of using alternative inferential bases.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 2004

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1990

The practical problems encountered in Reliability Data Analysis are considered, particularly when... more The practical problems encountered in Reliability Data Analysis are considered, particularly when censoring is an important feature. Approaches to Statistical Data Analysis rather than specific techniques are described. Careful examination of the data is recommended using simple plotting methods. The importance of the objective of a Reliability Study is emphasized as this must always be kept in mind. Statistical methods should be a tool to achieve a given end. Three examples of Reliability Studies from three differen t areas of application are used for illustration. These examples consist of data collected from the field and do not cover laboratory-controlled testing. 337 Reliability Engineering and System Safety 0951-8320/90/$03.50

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1991

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), 1996

An academic directory and search engine.

Journal of Forecasting, 2009

... Technique YU-CHIANG HU1* AND JAKE ANSELL2 1 Barclays Capital, London, UK 2 Management School ... more ... Technique YU-CHIANG HU1* AND JAKE ANSELL2 1 Barclays Capital, London, UK 2 Management School and Economics, University of Edinburgh, UK ... domain. SMO is developed by Platt (1999) and it is a special form of the SVM. ...

European Journal of Operational Research, 2007

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (20... more This paper proposes a theoretical framework for predicting financial distress based on Hunt's (2000) 'Resource-Advantage (R-A) Theory of Competition'. The study focuses on the US retail market. Five credit scoring methodologies -Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Recursive Partition, Artificial Neural Network, and Sequential Minimal Optimization-are used on a sample of 195 healthy companies and 51 distressed firms over different time periods from 1994 to 2002.

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2010