Jake Wiley - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jake Wiley

Research paper thumbnail of An Updated Synoptic Climatology of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Heavy Lake-Effect Snow Events

Atmosphere, Aug 17, 2020

Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard cond... more Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard conditions, and insight into the large-scale precursor conditions associated with LES can aid local forecasters and potentially allow risks to be mitigated. In this study, a synoptic climatology of severe LES events over Lakes Erie and Ontario was created using an updated methodology based on previous studies with similar research objectives. Principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis (CA) was performed on a case set of LES events from a study domain encompassing both lakes, grouping LES events with similar spatial characteristics into the primary composite structures for LES. Synoptic scale composites were constructed for each cluster using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Additionally, one case from each cluster was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to analyze mesoscale conditions associated with each of the clusters. Three synoptic setups were identified that consisted of discrepancies, mostly in the surface fields, from a common pattern previously identified as being conducive to LES, which features a dipole and upper-level low pressure anomaly located near the Hudson Bay. Mesoscale conditions associated with each composite support differing LES impacts constrained to individual lakes or a combination of both.

Research paper thumbnail of Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Atmosphere, Oct 2, 2021

Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to t... more Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no research has inquired into which synoptic fields most influence LES formation. This study analyzes clippers during non-LES situations to further knowledge on which atmospheric variables most regulate LES development on the synoptic scale. As no such database currently exists, a clipper repository is developed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data. The repository is then cross referenced with a previously developed LES repository to identify clippers responsible for LES. Composite synoptic-scale patterns were then constructed on the remaining non-LES clippers to identify synoptic conditions that ultimately inhibited LES formation. This analysis is supplemented by an assessment of lake surface conditions in each composite to evaluate how influential the lake characteristics were in the suppression of LES activity. In total, 51 non-LES clippers were identified, tracked, and separated into three composite map types that exhibited unique storm track and spatial characteristics. Permutation testing revealed that lake surface conditions were not significantly (p ≤ 0.05) different between LES and non-LES associated clippers implying the main LES inhibition factors were meteorological.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the sensitivity of simulated river discharge to lake configuration and parameterization over the Chattahoochee River watershed

Evaluating the sensitivity of simulated river discharge to lake configuration and parameterization over the Chattahoochee River watershed

Research paper thumbnail of A Synoptic Climatology of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior Lake-Effect Snow Events

A Synoptic Climatology of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior Lake-Effect Snow Events

Research paper thumbnail of Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events

Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events using the Weather Rese... more Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events using the Weather Research and Forecast Model The Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) was utilized to study the effects of warmer lake surface temperatures on the lake effect snow (LES) environments of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Composites of recorded LES cases were created for WRF input to represent average LES conditions which revealed three distinct large-scale patterns. WRF runs consisted of altering lake temperatures up to 4.3°C for three future time frames. Lake Erie projections exhibited more sensitivity to alterations as more WRF runs revealed significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) changes to the environment. Lake Erie solely showed any distinctive changes with early and mid-century WRF runs with increased surface CAPE around 80 J/kg and total precipitation around 1.5 mm. Late century alterations for both lakes revealed significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) changes including up to 2.1 g/kg increased specific humidity and a 9K surface-850mb temperature difference indicating both lakes were most sensitive to late century alterations.

Research paper thumbnail of Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Atmosphere, 2021

Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to t... more Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no research has inquired into which synoptic fields most influence LES formation. This study analyzes clippers during non-LES situations to further knowledge on which atmospheric variables most regulate LES development on the synoptic scale. As no such database currently exists, a clipper repository is developed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data. The repository is then cross referenced with a previously developed LES repository to identify clippers responsible for LES. Composite synoptic-scale patterns were then constructed on the remaining non-LES clippers to identify synoptic conditions that ultimately inhibited LES formation. This analysis is supplemented by an assessment of lake surface conditions in each composite to evaluate how influential the lake charact...

Research paper thumbnail of An Updated Synoptic Climatology of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Heavy Lake-Effect Snow Events

Atmosphere, 2020

Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard cond... more Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard conditions, and insight into the large-scale precursor conditions associated with LES can aid local forecasters and potentially allow risks to be mitigated. In this study, a synoptic climatology of severe LES events over Lakes Erie and Ontario was created using an updated methodology based on previous studies with similar research objectives. Principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis (CA) was performed on a case set of LES events from a study domain encompassing both lakes, grouping LES events with similar spatial characteristics into the primary composite structures for LES. Synoptic scale composites were constructed for each cluster using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Additionally, one case from each cluster was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to analyze mesoscale conditions associated with each of the clusters. Three sy...

Research paper thumbnail of Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

Climate, 2021

As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and on... more As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for Lake Michigan and Lake Superior LES events by employing an LES case repository for these regions within the U.S. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data for each LES event were used to construct synoptic maps of dominant LES patterns for each lake. These maps were formulated using a previously implemented composite technique that blends principal component analysis with a k-means cluster analysis. A sample case from each resulting cluster was also selected and simulated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model to obtain an example mesoscale depiction of the LES environment. The study revealed four synoptic setups for Lake Michigan and three for Lake Superior whose primary differences were discrepancies in a surface pressure dipole struc...

Research paper thumbnail of An Updated Synoptic Climatology of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Heavy Lake-Effect Snow Events

Atmosphere, Aug 17, 2020

Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard cond... more Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard conditions, and insight into the large-scale precursor conditions associated with LES can aid local forecasters and potentially allow risks to be mitigated. In this study, a synoptic climatology of severe LES events over Lakes Erie and Ontario was created using an updated methodology based on previous studies with similar research objectives. Principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis (CA) was performed on a case set of LES events from a study domain encompassing both lakes, grouping LES events with similar spatial characteristics into the primary composite structures for LES. Synoptic scale composites were constructed for each cluster using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Additionally, one case from each cluster was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to analyze mesoscale conditions associated with each of the clusters. Three synoptic setups were identified that consisted of discrepancies, mostly in the surface fields, from a common pattern previously identified as being conducive to LES, which features a dipole and upper-level low pressure anomaly located near the Hudson Bay. Mesoscale conditions associated with each composite support differing LES impacts constrained to individual lakes or a combination of both.

Research paper thumbnail of Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Atmosphere, Oct 2, 2021

Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to t... more Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no research has inquired into which synoptic fields most influence LES formation. This study analyzes clippers during non-LES situations to further knowledge on which atmospheric variables most regulate LES development on the synoptic scale. As no such database currently exists, a clipper repository is developed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data. The repository is then cross referenced with a previously developed LES repository to identify clippers responsible for LES. Composite synoptic-scale patterns were then constructed on the remaining non-LES clippers to identify synoptic conditions that ultimately inhibited LES formation. This analysis is supplemented by an assessment of lake surface conditions in each composite to evaluate how influential the lake characteristics were in the suppression of LES activity. In total, 51 non-LES clippers were identified, tracked, and separated into three composite map types that exhibited unique storm track and spatial characteristics. Permutation testing revealed that lake surface conditions were not significantly (p ≤ 0.05) different between LES and non-LES associated clippers implying the main LES inhibition factors were meteorological.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the sensitivity of simulated river discharge to lake configuration and parameterization over the Chattahoochee River watershed

Evaluating the sensitivity of simulated river discharge to lake configuration and parameterization over the Chattahoochee River watershed

Research paper thumbnail of A Synoptic Climatology of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior Lake-Effect Snow Events

A Synoptic Climatology of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior Lake-Effect Snow Events

Research paper thumbnail of Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events

Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events using the Weather Rese... more Sensitivity analysis of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake effect snow events using the Weather Research and Forecast Model The Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) was utilized to study the effects of warmer lake surface temperatures on the lake effect snow (LES) environments of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Composites of recorded LES cases were created for WRF input to represent average LES conditions which revealed three distinct large-scale patterns. WRF runs consisted of altering lake temperatures up to 4.3°C for three future time frames. Lake Erie projections exhibited more sensitivity to alterations as more WRF runs revealed significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) changes to the environment. Lake Erie solely showed any distinctive changes with early and mid-century WRF runs with increased surface CAPE around 80 J/kg and total precipitation around 1.5 mm. Late century alterations for both lakes revealed significant (p-value ≤ 0.05) changes including up to 2.1 g/kg increased specific humidity and a 9K surface-850mb temperature difference indicating both lakes were most sensitive to late century alterations.

Research paper thumbnail of Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Atmosphere, 2021

Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to t... more Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no research has inquired into which synoptic fields most influence LES formation. This study analyzes clippers during non-LES situations to further knowledge on which atmospheric variables most regulate LES development on the synoptic scale. As no such database currently exists, a clipper repository is developed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data. The repository is then cross referenced with a previously developed LES repository to identify clippers responsible for LES. Composite synoptic-scale patterns were then constructed on the remaining non-LES clippers to identify synoptic conditions that ultimately inhibited LES formation. This analysis is supplemented by an assessment of lake surface conditions in each composite to evaluate how influential the lake charact...

Research paper thumbnail of An Updated Synoptic Climatology of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Heavy Lake-Effect Snow Events

Atmosphere, 2020

Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard cond... more Lake-effect snow (LES) storms pose numerous hazards, including extreme snowfall and blizzard conditions, and insight into the large-scale precursor conditions associated with LES can aid local forecasters and potentially allow risks to be mitigated. In this study, a synoptic climatology of severe LES events over Lakes Erie and Ontario was created using an updated methodology based on previous studies with similar research objectives. Principal component analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis (CA) was performed on a case set of LES events from a study domain encompassing both lakes, grouping LES events with similar spatial characteristics into the primary composite structures for LES. Synoptic scale composites were constructed for each cluster using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Additionally, one case from each cluster was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to analyze mesoscale conditions associated with each of the clusters. Three sy...

Research paper thumbnail of Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

Climate, 2021

As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and on... more As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for Lake Michigan and Lake Superior LES events by employing an LES case repository for these regions within the U.S. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data for each LES event were used to construct synoptic maps of dominant LES patterns for each lake. These maps were formulated using a previously implemented composite technique that blends principal component analysis with a k-means cluster analysis. A sample case from each resulting cluster was also selected and simulated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model to obtain an example mesoscale depiction of the LES environment. The study revealed four synoptic setups for Lake Michigan and three for Lake Superior whose primary differences were discrepancies in a surface pressure dipole struc...