Jana Verboom - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jana Verboom

Threatened ecosystems Coastal flooding Extreme weather events River flooding Large-scale singular... more Threatened ecosystems Coastal flooding Extreme weather events River flooding Large-scale singular events (e.g. Ice sheet collapse) Crop yields Coral die-off Heat-related morbidity and mortality Arctic region Impact on tourism 2006-2015 relative to pre-industrial levels

American Naturalist, 2001

In this archive we share the data and R code used for the construction of population models for s... more In this archive we share the data and R code used for the construction of population models for seven bird species (Common Starling, Black-tailed Godwit<strong>,</strong> Marsh Harrier, Eurasian Spoonbill, White Stork, Common Tern and White-tailed Eagle) for our assessment of the effects of wind farms (Schippers et al. 2020). In most cases we parameterized our population models based on species-specific survival and reproduction rates from scientific articles and reports, but in the case of the Western Marsh Harrier we analyzed previously unpublished nest success and capture-mark-resighting data. Below we first describe per species which data we used for model parameterization, and then describe per data file what each variable represents. We selected populations of seven species based on the availability of data, considerable likelihood to collide with wind turbines and contrasting ages of first reproduction. For species for which long time series of demographic data we...

In opdracht van Rijkswaterstaat Directie Limburg is onderzoek verricht naar de verwachte effecten... more In opdracht van Rijkswaterstaat Directie Limburg is onderzoek verricht naar de verwachte effecten van rijksweg 73-zuid op de levensvatbaarheid van de dassenpopulatie in Midden-Limburg. Met behulp van het model DASSIM is voor vijf scenario's het verloop van de dassenpopulatie gesimuleerd. De scenario's verschillen van elkaar in het al dan niet aanleggen van rijksweg 73-zuid, de mate waarin mitigerende en compenserende maatregelen worden getroffen, en de mate waarin genomen maatregelen effectief zijn. Met de modelevaluatie is onderzocht hoe de nieuwe rijksweg van invloed is op het aantal dassen, het aantal sociale groepen en de verdeling van de sociale groepen over de verschillende lokale populaties in het studiegebied. De belangrijkste bevindingen zijn dat als de rijksweg niet wordt aangelegd en geen mitigerende maatregelen aan het bestaande wegennet worden genomen, de toename in verkeer op het lokale wegennet resulteert in een afname van de levensvatbaarheid van de dassenpop...

Journal of theoretical biology, Jan 24, 2015

Species are shifting their ranges under climate change, with genetic and evolutionary consequence... more Species are shifting their ranges under climate change, with genetic and evolutionary consequences. As a result, the spatial distribution of genetic diversity in a species' range can show a signature of range expansion. This genetic signature takes time to decay after the range stops expanding and it is important to take that lag time into account when interpreting contemporary spatial patterns of genetic diversity. In addition, the return to spatial equilibrium on an ecologically relevant timescale will depend on migration of genetic diversity across the species' range. However, during a range shift alleles may go extinct at the retracting range margin due to spatial sorting. Here we studied the spatial pattern of genotypes that differ in dispersal rate across the species range before, during and after a range shift, assessed the effect of range retraction on this pattern, and quantified the duration of the ephemeral genetic signature of range expansion for this trait. We p...

PloS one, 2014

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling... more Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive tha...

The American Naturalist, 2001

Nature conservation is increasingly based on a landscape approach rather than a species approach.... more Nature conservation is increasingly based on a landscape approach rather than a species approach. Landscape planning that includes nature conservation goals requires integrated ecological tools. However, species differ widely in their response to landscape change. We propose a framework of ecologically scaled landscape indices that takes into account this variation. Our approach is based on a combination of field studies of spatially structured populations (metapopulations) and model simulations in artificial landscapes. From these, we seek generalities in the relationship among species features, landscape indices, and metapopulation viability. The concept of ecological species profiles is used to group species according to characteristics that are important in metapopulations' response to landscape change: individual area requirements as the dominant characteristic of extinction risk in landscape patches and dispersal distance as the main determinant of the ability to colonize patches. The ecological profiles and landscape indices are then integrated into two ecologically scaled landscape indices (ESLI): average patch carrying capacity and average patch connectivity. The field data show that the fraction of occupied habitat patches is correlated with the two ESLI. To put the ESLI into a perspective of metapopulation persistence, we determine the viability for six ecological profiles at different degrees of habitat fragmentation using a metapopulation model and computer-generated landscapes. The model results show that the fraction of occupied patches is a good indicator for metapopulation viability. We discuss how ecological profiles, ESLI, and the viability threshold can be applied for landscape planning and design in nature conservation.

Landscape Ecology, 2008

It is generally assumed that large patches of natural habitat are better for the survival of spec... more It is generally assumed that large patches of natural habitat are better for the survival of species than the same amount of habitat in smaller fragments or linear elements like hedges and tree rows. We use a spatially explicit individual-based model of a woodland bird to explore this hypothesis. We specifically ask whether mixtures of large, small and linear habitat elements are better for population performance than landscapes that consist of only large elements. With equal carrying capacity, metapopulations perform equally or better in heterogeneous landscape types that are a mix of linear, large and small habitat elements. We call this increased metapopulation performance of large and small elements ''synergy''. These mixed conditions are superior because the small linear elements facilitate dispersal while patches secure the population in the long run because they have a lower extinction risk. The linear elements are able to catch and guide dispersing animals which results in higher connectivity between patches leading to higher metapopulation survival. Our results suggest that landscape designers should not always seek to conserve and create larger units but might better strive for more variable landscapes with mixtures of patch sizes and shapes. This is especially important when smaller units play a key role in connecting patches and dispersal through the matrix is poor.

Landscape and Urban Planning, 1998

The distribution of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles, L.) in the Netherlands is fragmented and ad... more The distribution of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles, L.) in the Netherlands is fragmented and adult mortality is high in many places because of traf®c casualties. Both these facts affect the survival and dispersal of badgers in a negative way and are suggested to be the main causes of the decline of this species. For this reason the species receives special attention from the government in the national Nature Policy Plan and also from the lower administration in the provinces in their policy on physical planning and nature conservation. To evaluate changes in land use by means of spatial scenarios and conservation strategies in favour of the species, an individual-based simulation model was built that describes population dynamics in space and time. The model was used to evaluate three scenarios. The results indicate that the survival of groups bene®ts strongly from measures directed at lowering adult mortality. Also the (re)colonization of suitable but not inhabited areas increases the survival and is favoured by measures that encourage dispersal. The results indicate that simulation models as described are useful tools for establishing the comparative effectiveness of plans or measures aimed at increasing the viability of the species.

Ecological Modelling, 2012

The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly a... more The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate change are considerably needed. We explore a detailed individual-based spatially explicit metapopulation model of a univoltine butterfly species where all processes are affected by daily weather, using historical daily weather data and future daily projections as input, in order to examine responses of a butterfly population in landscapes under various states of fragmentation and two climate change scenarios. This tool is used to investigate how landscapes could be adapted to compensate for possible negative impacts of climate change on population performance. We find that our model butterfly metapopulation was not only able to escape adverse conditions in summer by phenological shifts, but even to benefit from climatic warming. Varying either the amount of suitable habitat or patch size revealed a sharp threshold in population viability. In this particular case, however, the threshold was not affected by climate change and climate-dependent landscape adaptation was not required. The model presented here can be adapted for other species and applied to investigate scenarios for landscape adaptation

Ecological Economics, 2007

Ecography, 1996

A grid-based random walk model has been developed to simulate animal dispersal, taking landscape ... more A grid-based random walk model has been developed to simulate animal dispersal, taking landscape heterogeneity and linear barriers such as roads and rivers into account. The model can be used to estimate connectivity, and has been parameterized for the badger in the central ...

Acta Biotheoretica, 2011

Nothing in this publication may be copied, stored in automated databases or published without pri... more Nothing in this publication may be copied, stored in automated databases or published without prior written consent of the National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate / Nationaal Onderzoekprogramma Kennis voor Klimaat. Pursuant to Article 15a of the Dutch Law on authorship, sections of this publication may be quoted on the understanding that a clear reference is made to this publication. Liability The National Research Programme Knowledge for Climate and the authors of this publication have exercised due caution in preparing this publication. However, it can not be excluded that this publication may contain errors or is incomplete. Any use of the content of this publication is for the own responsibility of the user. The Foundation Knowledge for Climate (Stichting Kennis voor Klimaat), its organisation members, the authors of this publication and their organisations may not be held liable for any damages resulting from the use of this publication.

Landscape Ecology, 2010

There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for p... more There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital demographic rates (survival, reproduction) in these populations. In turn, this amplified environmental variability enlarges population extinction risk. This paper demonstrates that currently used nature conservation policies, principles, and generic and specific design criteria have to be adapted to these new insights. A simulation shows that an increase in variation in vital demographic rates can be compensated for by increasing patch size. A small, short-lived bird species like a warbler that is highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations needs more area for compensation than a large, long-lived bird species like a Bittern. We explore the conservation problems that would arise if patches or reserve sizes would need to be increased, e.g. doubled, in order to compensate for increase in environmental variability. This issue has serious consequences for nature policy when targets are not met, and asks for new design criteria.