Jeffrey Casello - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Jeffrey Casello
BMC Public Health, 2019
BackgroundAutomated Vehicles (AVs) are central to the new mobility paradigm that promises to tran... more BackgroundAutomated Vehicles (AVs) are central to the new mobility paradigm that promises to transform transportation systems and cities across the globe. To date, much of the research on AVs has focused on technological advancements with little emphasis on how this emerging technology will impact population-level health. This scoping study examines the potential health impacts of AVs based on the existing literature.MethodsUsing Arksey and O’Malley’s scoping protocol, we searched academic and ‘grey’ literature to anticipate the effects of AVs on human health.ResultsOur search captured 43 information sources that discussed a least one of the five thematic areas related to health. The bulk of the evidence is related to road safety (n = 37), followed by a relatively equal distribution between social equity (n = 24), environment (n = 22), lifestyle (n = 20), and built environment (n = 18) themes. There is general agreement that AVs will improve road safety overall, thus reducing injuri...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2019
The predominance of automobile dependency in North America is associated with a host of negative ... more The predominance of automobile dependency in North America is associated with a host of negative health and environmental impacts and has sparked the promotion of low-carbon and active modes of transportation. Encompassing both priorities, electric-bicycles have become a popular mode of transportation in some parts of the world. While multiple studies have suggested older adult populations may be most likely to benefit from e-bike technology, few studies have exclusively focused on this demographic to identify the factors that may promote or inhibit e-bike adoption amongst this group. This study explores the potential for e-bikes to support independent mobility and active aging among the older adult population in Canada's auto-dependent context. Guided by a conceptual framework for older adult mobility, this study used qualitative methods to gather perceptual and experiential data from 17 community stakeholders and 37 older adults in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario. The findings highlight the importance of cycling life histories, social connection and physical limitations to adopting cycling later in life. Specific individual and structural factors were discussed in relation to e-bike adoption including facilitators such as increased convenience, reduced physical exertion, reduced reliance on a vehicle and fun. Barriers included cycling infrastructure and road safety, regulation, and stigmatization barriers. E-bikes as a more convenient and supportive mode of transit for older adults is discussed alongside the importance of e-bikes as a replacement for traditional bicycles in a subset of this population.
Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 2006
North American cities have been evolving from monocentric to polycentric metropolitan regions, wi... more North American cities have been evolving from monocentric to polycentric metropolitan regions, with multiple concentrations of activities occurring outside of traditional urban cores. This new urban structure, with multiple urban "activity centers," has profound influence on the functioning of cities, particularly transportation systems. This paper reviews the development of "activity center" definitions from various research fields, and concludes that the application of contemporary definitions to transportation analyses has significant weaknesses, particularly in analyzing suburban agglomerations of activities. An alternative method is suggested which incorporates not only the presence of concentrated employment, the traditional criteria, but also the trip-attracting strength of the employment types present in an activity center. The Philadelphia metropolitan area is analyzed using traditional definitions and the proposed methodology; several areas which would not be identified using traditional definitions meet the new criteria. The impact of these "transportation activity centers" on Philadelphia's travel patterns is explored.
Households allocate their travel resources – vehicles, time, budget, and supervision – to accompl... more Households allocate their travel resources – vehicles, time, budget, and supervision – to accomplish activities while minimizing overall time and cost subject to a set of constraints – the duration and sequence of activities, and the need to provide transportation to dependent travellers. In this research, we develop and test a heuristic based approach to schedule activities using a cost (disutility) minimization objective. The model is evaluated by comparing predicted schedules generated by the heuristics to actual travel patterns reported by participant households. While the dataset is small – only 14 households are included – the model successfully identifies tours for households of various compositions and demographics. The research is important in the local context as the study area – the Region of Waterloo, Canada – is a largely auto-dependent metropolitan area that is building a 19km, $818M (CDN) Light Rail Transit (LRT) system intended to increase public transport use and in...
Theoretical economic choice models posit that agents make resource allocation decisions based on ... more Theoretical economic choice models posit that agents make resource allocation decisions based on the “utility,” or subjective satisfaction that they receive from alternative choices. Utility allows agents to rank choices and potentially apply optimization algorithms to these choices. Utility, however, is not measurable in an empirical context. Thus, modelers alternatively estimate linear empirical functions that associate factors with observed choices and/or market prices. While these linear functions can include factors that reflect multiple social and natural dimensions of decision making, they are not suitable for optimization (even using assumptions of bounded rationality) or for representing synergies and substitutability between factors. We present a novel approach to empirical utility function parameterization. Using surveys, we are gathering information on the relative preference ranking of factors that affect agents’ observed home purchase or rental decisions, as is standar...
In 1966, the United States Congress created the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (W... more In 1966, the United States Congress created the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) to take control of the District's private bus system and develop a new Metro network for the Nation's capital. Following extensive planning, construction of Washington's Metrorail transit system started in 1969. Seven years later, revenue service began on a 7-kilometre line section with five stations in operation. Another 25 years later, in 2001, the originally planned Washington Metrorail system, shown in Figure 1, was completed, reaching a total of 166 kilometres with 83 stations. Disciplines Engineering | Systems Engineering | Transportation Engineering This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/ese_papers/763
Journal of Transport Geography, 2016
As the practices of transportation engineering and planning evolve from “data poor” to “data rich... more As the practices of transportation engineering and planning evolve from “data poor” to “data rich”, methods to automate the translation of data to information become increasingly important. A major field of study is the automatic identification of travel modes from passively collected GPS data. In previous work, the authors have developed a robust modal classification system using an optimized combination of statistical inference techniques. One problem that remains very difficult is the correct identification of transit travel, particularly when the system is operating in mixed traffic. This type of operation generates a wide range of values for many travel parameters (average speed, maximum speed, and acceleration for example) which have similar characteristics to other urban modes. In this paper, we supplement the previous research to improve the identification of transit trips. The method employed evaluates the likelihood that GPS travel data belong to transit by comparing the location and pattern of zero-travel speeds (stopping) to the presence of transit stops and signalized intersections. These comparisons are done in a GIS. The consideration of the spatial attributes of GPS data vastly improves the accuracy of transit travel prediction.
Advances in wireless communications and technologies provide the opportunity to collect detailed ... more Advances in wireless communications and technologies provide the opportunity to collect detailed information on travel trajectory using smart-phones equipped with GPS and accelerometers. These types of smart-phones are ubiquitous and, as such, present an opportunity to conveniently collect spatial and temporal data at regular time intervals. This can be useful to utilize as a method to document travel behavior – origin, destination, departure time, route choice, trip purpose, and mode choice. One of the challenges that has been addressed in the literature is how to identify the transportation mode of travel. The paper presents a data-driven classification model to infer transportation mode choice from data collected with GPS equipped smart phones. Rather than making a priori assumptions, we instead employ an optimization method to objectively produce the following classifier components and methods: a ranked feature vector based on the power of differentiation between different modes...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2014
With the increased emphasis on sustainable transportation, advancements are necessary in the tech... more With the increased emphasis on sustainable transportation, advancements are necessary in the technical methods used in the planning and engineering of investments for nonmotorized modes. This paper used GPS data on cyclists’ activities to estimate a utility or generalized-cost function that reflects cyclists’ evaluation of path alternatives. For 724 cycling trips, path attributes were compiled of the observed cycling path to four feasible but not-chosen alternatives. With two logit formulations, the relative importance of statistically significant path parameters—length, auto speed, grade, and the presence (or absence) of bike lanes—was estimated. Then the predictive powers of the models were tested on 181 trips that were observed in the same data set but were not used to calibrate the model. In the best case, this model correctly predicted the actual path for 65% of these trips; for an additional 13% of trips, the difference in probabilities of selecting the best alternative path a...
Journal of Public Transportation, 2008
The Region of Waterloo, Ontario, is a rapidly-growing metropolitan area approximately 100 km west... more The Region of Waterloo, Ontario, is a rapidly-growing metropolitan area approximately 100 km west of Toronto. In 2005, the Region's transit operator, Grand River Transit, introduced an express bus service, known as iXpress, along the central northsouth corridor of the Region. This paper explores the impact of the iXpress service on transit user costs and passenger attraction. We employ a methodology to quantify the generalized cost (including waiting time, in-vehicle and transfer times) of transit trips between key destinations in the Region before and after the implementation of iXpress. We also develop a methodology to identify those customers who benefit from the reduced cost of the iXpress. Finally, we present the change in ridership (boardings) in the corridor pre-and post-implementation. From these demand and cost data, we compute transit elasticity of demand with respect to generalized cost.
Journal of Public Transportation, 2014
This paper presents an easy-to-use model to assist in technology selection for transit planning. ... more This paper presents an easy-to-use model to assist in technology selection for transit planning. The model computes annual costs for two technologies-currently BRT and LRT-for a system with characteristics specified by the user and from "real-world" operating data. The model computes the annualized capital and operating costs over a wide range of demand; it also calculates location-specific, energy-related emissions for both technologies' operations. Most importantly, the model allows the user to test the sensitivity of the technology selection result to nearly all inputs. The model is applied to a recent case in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to verify its functionality. The results show that, economically, these two technologies result in very similar annual costs for "normal" demand levels. As a result, small changes in assumed input values for period of evaluation, interest rates, labor costs, and infrastructure costs can result in a change in recommended technology.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2009
Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they... more Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost alternative to complete a desired trip. The reliability of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to quantify reliability allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes use of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the reliability of transit service. On the basis of these data, the impacts of unreliable service on generalized transit user costs are quantified by use of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers’ desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing reliability of arrivals at a station can decrease transit users’ generalized costs significantly and by as ...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2013
Inputs are provided for the decision-making process of transit improvements in developing countri... more Inputs are provided for the decision-making process of transit improvements in developing countries. With an analysis of the willingness of private bus operators to participate in transit improvements, political feasibility can be assessed, and the likelihood of successful implementation can be increased. Data from 156 surveys conducted in cities in Mexico are used to develop probabilistic models that quantify the influence of private bus operators’ characteristics, perceptions about business and operating efficiencies, and their relationship with government on their willingness to participate. Evidence shows that several elements can increase the willingness of private operators to participate in government-led proposals. These elements include the level of trust and communication between private bus operators and government authorities, the economic power of private bus operators, and the attachment to the status quo. Several features are shown to limit operators’ willingness to p...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2011
Automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger counting (APC) systems are powerful tool... more Automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger counting (APC) systems are powerful tools for transit agencies to archive large, detailed data sets for transit operations. Ensuring data quality is an important first step to exploiting these data sets. An automated quality assurance methodology is presented to identify unreliable archived AVL-APC data for exclusion from further operational analyses. The approach is based on observed or expected pattern limitations of travel and passenger activity, which are derived from archived data. Stop-level tests identify suspect data, which are then flagged at the trip level. A methodology case study is presented for AVL-APC data from Grand River Transit in the region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Transportation Research Record, 2006
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2007
This research evaluates efficiency levels of individual paratransit systems in Canada with the sp... more This research evaluates efficiency levels of individual paratransit systems in Canada with the specific objective of identifying the most efficient agencies and the sources of their efficiency. Through identification of the most efficient systems along with the influencing factors, new service policies and management and operational strategies might be developed for improved resource utilization and quality of services. The research applies the data envelopment analysis methodology, which is a mathematical programming technique for determining the efficiency of individual systems as compared with their peers in multiple performance measures. Annual operating data from 2001 to 2003 as reported by the Canadian Urban Transit Association are used in this analysis. A bootstrap regression analysis is performed to identify the possible relationship between the efficiency of a paratransit system and measurable operating or managerial factors that affect the performance of paratransit system...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2011
This paper discusses appropriate evaluation techniques for assessing transit proposals in develop... more This paper discusses appropriate evaluation techniques for assessing transit proposals in developing countries. With the shift of ownership models in past decades from fully public to fully private and eventually to consolidated franchising models, successful transit projects require the analysis of several indirect costs associated with changing ownership. These indirect costs include (a) the potential loss of personal income for local bus operators if the new investment precludes their continued operation, (b) negative personal impacts on self-worth and changing business dynamics, and (c) long-term impacts on the ability of the government to implement future projects as a result of obstacles that may result from the first two costs. In the proposed methodology these costs are explicitly considered in the evaluation process. The way that various ownership models in current use influence—either positively or negatively—such indirect costs is assessed. The paper concludes that full i...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010
This paper examines the effect of unreliable transit service on transit user costs with the goal ... more This paper examines the effect of unreliable transit service on transit user costs with the goal of increasing the accuracy of mode choice models. The concept advanced here is to include explicitly in the formulation of mode choice models the anxiety experienced by passengers when service is unreliable because of late departure or longer-than-expected in-vehicle travel time. This anxiety is modeled as a generalized cost penalty that is added to actual in-vehicle time. The magnitude of the penalty depends on travelers’ assessment of the likelihood of arriving on time at their destination. It is believed that this formulation of anxiety is behaviorally representative. To test the effects of the formulation, a simulation model is generated that quantifies the anxiety component of generalized cost for 10,000 travelers with various aversions to risk for travel between station pairs with different observed reliabilities. Results suggest that primarily for risk-averse travelers, but also f...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2007
This paper analyzes the potential to, and impacts of, increasing transit modal split in a polycen... more This paper analyzes the potential to, and impacts of, increasing transit modal split in a polycentric metropolitan areathe Philadelphia, Pennsylvania region. Potential transit riders are preselected as those travelers whose trips begin and end in areas with transit-supportive land uses, defined as ''activity centers,'' areas of high-density employment and trip attraction. A multimodal traffic assignment model is developed and solved to quantify the generalized cost of travel by transit services and private automobile under (user) equilibrium conditions. The model predicts transit modal split by identifying the origin-destination pairs for which transit offers lower generalized cost. For those origin-destination pairs for which transit does not offer the lowest generalized cost, I compute a transit competitiveness measure, the ratio of transit generalized cost to auto generalized cost. The model is first formulated and solved for existing transit service and regional pricing schemes. Next, various transit incentives (travel time or fare reductions, increased service) and auto disincentives (higher out of pocket expenses) are proposed and their impacts on individual travel choices and system performance are quantified. The results suggest that a coordinated policy of improved transit service and some auto disincentives is necessary to achieve greater modal split and improved system efficiency in the region. Further, the research finds that two levels of coordinated transit service, between and within activity centers, are necessary to realize the greatest improvements in system performance.
BMC Public Health, 2019
BackgroundAutomated Vehicles (AVs) are central to the new mobility paradigm that promises to tran... more BackgroundAutomated Vehicles (AVs) are central to the new mobility paradigm that promises to transform transportation systems and cities across the globe. To date, much of the research on AVs has focused on technological advancements with little emphasis on how this emerging technology will impact population-level health. This scoping study examines the potential health impacts of AVs based on the existing literature.MethodsUsing Arksey and O’Malley’s scoping protocol, we searched academic and ‘grey’ literature to anticipate the effects of AVs on human health.ResultsOur search captured 43 information sources that discussed a least one of the five thematic areas related to health. The bulk of the evidence is related to road safety (n = 37), followed by a relatively equal distribution between social equity (n = 24), environment (n = 22), lifestyle (n = 20), and built environment (n = 18) themes. There is general agreement that AVs will improve road safety overall, thus reducing injuri...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2019
The predominance of automobile dependency in North America is associated with a host of negative ... more The predominance of automobile dependency in North America is associated with a host of negative health and environmental impacts and has sparked the promotion of low-carbon and active modes of transportation. Encompassing both priorities, electric-bicycles have become a popular mode of transportation in some parts of the world. While multiple studies have suggested older adult populations may be most likely to benefit from e-bike technology, few studies have exclusively focused on this demographic to identify the factors that may promote or inhibit e-bike adoption amongst this group. This study explores the potential for e-bikes to support independent mobility and active aging among the older adult population in Canada's auto-dependent context. Guided by a conceptual framework for older adult mobility, this study used qualitative methods to gather perceptual and experiential data from 17 community stakeholders and 37 older adults in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario. The findings highlight the importance of cycling life histories, social connection and physical limitations to adopting cycling later in life. Specific individual and structural factors were discussed in relation to e-bike adoption including facilitators such as increased convenience, reduced physical exertion, reduced reliance on a vehicle and fun. Barriers included cycling infrastructure and road safety, regulation, and stigmatization barriers. E-bikes as a more convenient and supportive mode of transit for older adults is discussed alongside the importance of e-bikes as a replacement for traditional bicycles in a subset of this population.
Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 2006
North American cities have been evolving from monocentric to polycentric metropolitan regions, wi... more North American cities have been evolving from monocentric to polycentric metropolitan regions, with multiple concentrations of activities occurring outside of traditional urban cores. This new urban structure, with multiple urban "activity centers," has profound influence on the functioning of cities, particularly transportation systems. This paper reviews the development of "activity center" definitions from various research fields, and concludes that the application of contemporary definitions to transportation analyses has significant weaknesses, particularly in analyzing suburban agglomerations of activities. An alternative method is suggested which incorporates not only the presence of concentrated employment, the traditional criteria, but also the trip-attracting strength of the employment types present in an activity center. The Philadelphia metropolitan area is analyzed using traditional definitions and the proposed methodology; several areas which would not be identified using traditional definitions meet the new criteria. The impact of these "transportation activity centers" on Philadelphia's travel patterns is explored.
Households allocate their travel resources – vehicles, time, budget, and supervision – to accompl... more Households allocate their travel resources – vehicles, time, budget, and supervision – to accomplish activities while minimizing overall time and cost subject to a set of constraints – the duration and sequence of activities, and the need to provide transportation to dependent travellers. In this research, we develop and test a heuristic based approach to schedule activities using a cost (disutility) minimization objective. The model is evaluated by comparing predicted schedules generated by the heuristics to actual travel patterns reported by participant households. While the dataset is small – only 14 households are included – the model successfully identifies tours for households of various compositions and demographics. The research is important in the local context as the study area – the Region of Waterloo, Canada – is a largely auto-dependent metropolitan area that is building a 19km, $818M (CDN) Light Rail Transit (LRT) system intended to increase public transport use and in...
Theoretical economic choice models posit that agents make resource allocation decisions based on ... more Theoretical economic choice models posit that agents make resource allocation decisions based on the “utility,” or subjective satisfaction that they receive from alternative choices. Utility allows agents to rank choices and potentially apply optimization algorithms to these choices. Utility, however, is not measurable in an empirical context. Thus, modelers alternatively estimate linear empirical functions that associate factors with observed choices and/or market prices. While these linear functions can include factors that reflect multiple social and natural dimensions of decision making, they are not suitable for optimization (even using assumptions of bounded rationality) or for representing synergies and substitutability between factors. We present a novel approach to empirical utility function parameterization. Using surveys, we are gathering information on the relative preference ranking of factors that affect agents’ observed home purchase or rental decisions, as is standar...
In 1966, the United States Congress created the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (W... more In 1966, the United States Congress created the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) to take control of the District's private bus system and develop a new Metro network for the Nation's capital. Following extensive planning, construction of Washington's Metrorail transit system started in 1969. Seven years later, revenue service began on a 7-kilometre line section with five stations in operation. Another 25 years later, in 2001, the originally planned Washington Metrorail system, shown in Figure 1, was completed, reaching a total of 166 kilometres with 83 stations. Disciplines Engineering | Systems Engineering | Transportation Engineering This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/ese_papers/763
Journal of Transport Geography, 2016
As the practices of transportation engineering and planning evolve from “data poor” to “data rich... more As the practices of transportation engineering and planning evolve from “data poor” to “data rich”, methods to automate the translation of data to information become increasingly important. A major field of study is the automatic identification of travel modes from passively collected GPS data. In previous work, the authors have developed a robust modal classification system using an optimized combination of statistical inference techniques. One problem that remains very difficult is the correct identification of transit travel, particularly when the system is operating in mixed traffic. This type of operation generates a wide range of values for many travel parameters (average speed, maximum speed, and acceleration for example) which have similar characteristics to other urban modes. In this paper, we supplement the previous research to improve the identification of transit trips. The method employed evaluates the likelihood that GPS travel data belong to transit by comparing the location and pattern of zero-travel speeds (stopping) to the presence of transit stops and signalized intersections. These comparisons are done in a GIS. The consideration of the spatial attributes of GPS data vastly improves the accuracy of transit travel prediction.
Advances in wireless communications and technologies provide the opportunity to collect detailed ... more Advances in wireless communications and technologies provide the opportunity to collect detailed information on travel trajectory using smart-phones equipped with GPS and accelerometers. These types of smart-phones are ubiquitous and, as such, present an opportunity to conveniently collect spatial and temporal data at regular time intervals. This can be useful to utilize as a method to document travel behavior – origin, destination, departure time, route choice, trip purpose, and mode choice. One of the challenges that has been addressed in the literature is how to identify the transportation mode of travel. The paper presents a data-driven classification model to infer transportation mode choice from data collected with GPS equipped smart phones. Rather than making a priori assumptions, we instead employ an optimization method to objectively produce the following classifier components and methods: a ranked feature vector based on the power of differentiation between different modes...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2014
With the increased emphasis on sustainable transportation, advancements are necessary in the tech... more With the increased emphasis on sustainable transportation, advancements are necessary in the technical methods used in the planning and engineering of investments for nonmotorized modes. This paper used GPS data on cyclists’ activities to estimate a utility or generalized-cost function that reflects cyclists’ evaluation of path alternatives. For 724 cycling trips, path attributes were compiled of the observed cycling path to four feasible but not-chosen alternatives. With two logit formulations, the relative importance of statistically significant path parameters—length, auto speed, grade, and the presence (or absence) of bike lanes—was estimated. Then the predictive powers of the models were tested on 181 trips that were observed in the same data set but were not used to calibrate the model. In the best case, this model correctly predicted the actual path for 65% of these trips; for an additional 13% of trips, the difference in probabilities of selecting the best alternative path a...
Journal of Public Transportation, 2008
The Region of Waterloo, Ontario, is a rapidly-growing metropolitan area approximately 100 km west... more The Region of Waterloo, Ontario, is a rapidly-growing metropolitan area approximately 100 km west of Toronto. In 2005, the Region's transit operator, Grand River Transit, introduced an express bus service, known as iXpress, along the central northsouth corridor of the Region. This paper explores the impact of the iXpress service on transit user costs and passenger attraction. We employ a methodology to quantify the generalized cost (including waiting time, in-vehicle and transfer times) of transit trips between key destinations in the Region before and after the implementation of iXpress. We also develop a methodology to identify those customers who benefit from the reduced cost of the iXpress. Finally, we present the change in ridership (boardings) in the corridor pre-and post-implementation. From these demand and cost data, we compute transit elasticity of demand with respect to generalized cost.
Journal of Public Transportation, 2014
This paper presents an easy-to-use model to assist in technology selection for transit planning. ... more This paper presents an easy-to-use model to assist in technology selection for transit planning. The model computes annual costs for two technologies-currently BRT and LRT-for a system with characteristics specified by the user and from "real-world" operating data. The model computes the annualized capital and operating costs over a wide range of demand; it also calculates location-specific, energy-related emissions for both technologies' operations. Most importantly, the model allows the user to test the sensitivity of the technology selection result to nearly all inputs. The model is applied to a recent case in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to verify its functionality. The results show that, economically, these two technologies result in very similar annual costs for "normal" demand levels. As a result, small changes in assumed input values for period of evaluation, interest rates, labor costs, and infrastructure costs can result in a change in recommended technology.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2009
Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they... more Transportation modeling frameworks assume that travelers are economically rational; that is, they choose the lowest-cost alternative to complete a desired trip. The reliability of travel time is of critical importance to travelers. The ability to quantify reliability allows planners to estimate more accurately how system performance influences local travel behavior and to evaluate more appropriately potential investments in the transportation system infrastructure. This paper presents a methodology that makes use of automatic vehicle location data from the regional municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, to estimate the reliability of transit service. On the basis of these data, the impacts of unreliable service on generalized transit user costs are quantified by use of a simulation model of bus arrivals and passengers’ desired arrival times. It is shown that the increasing reliability of arrivals at a station can decrease transit users’ generalized costs significantly and by as ...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2013
Inputs are provided for the decision-making process of transit improvements in developing countri... more Inputs are provided for the decision-making process of transit improvements in developing countries. With an analysis of the willingness of private bus operators to participate in transit improvements, political feasibility can be assessed, and the likelihood of successful implementation can be increased. Data from 156 surveys conducted in cities in Mexico are used to develop probabilistic models that quantify the influence of private bus operators’ characteristics, perceptions about business and operating efficiencies, and their relationship with government on their willingness to participate. Evidence shows that several elements can increase the willingness of private operators to participate in government-led proposals. These elements include the level of trust and communication between private bus operators and government authorities, the economic power of private bus operators, and the attachment to the status quo. Several features are shown to limit operators’ willingness to p...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2011
Automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger counting (APC) systems are powerful tool... more Automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger counting (APC) systems are powerful tools for transit agencies to archive large, detailed data sets for transit operations. Ensuring data quality is an important first step to exploiting these data sets. An automated quality assurance methodology is presented to identify unreliable archived AVL-APC data for exclusion from further operational analyses. The approach is based on observed or expected pattern limitations of travel and passenger activity, which are derived from archived data. Stop-level tests identify suspect data, which are then flagged at the trip level. A methodology case study is presented for AVL-APC data from Grand River Transit in the region of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Transportation Research Record, 2006
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2007
This research evaluates efficiency levels of individual paratransit systems in Canada with the sp... more This research evaluates efficiency levels of individual paratransit systems in Canada with the specific objective of identifying the most efficient agencies and the sources of their efficiency. Through identification of the most efficient systems along with the influencing factors, new service policies and management and operational strategies might be developed for improved resource utilization and quality of services. The research applies the data envelopment analysis methodology, which is a mathematical programming technique for determining the efficiency of individual systems as compared with their peers in multiple performance measures. Annual operating data from 2001 to 2003 as reported by the Canadian Urban Transit Association are used in this analysis. A bootstrap regression analysis is performed to identify the possible relationship between the efficiency of a paratransit system and measurable operating or managerial factors that affect the performance of paratransit system...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2011
This paper discusses appropriate evaluation techniques for assessing transit proposals in develop... more This paper discusses appropriate evaluation techniques for assessing transit proposals in developing countries. With the shift of ownership models in past decades from fully public to fully private and eventually to consolidated franchising models, successful transit projects require the analysis of several indirect costs associated with changing ownership. These indirect costs include (a) the potential loss of personal income for local bus operators if the new investment precludes their continued operation, (b) negative personal impacts on self-worth and changing business dynamics, and (c) long-term impacts on the ability of the government to implement future projects as a result of obstacles that may result from the first two costs. In the proposed methodology these costs are explicitly considered in the evaluation process. The way that various ownership models in current use influence—either positively or negatively—such indirect costs is assessed. The paper concludes that full i...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010
This paper examines the effect of unreliable transit service on transit user costs with the goal ... more This paper examines the effect of unreliable transit service on transit user costs with the goal of increasing the accuracy of mode choice models. The concept advanced here is to include explicitly in the formulation of mode choice models the anxiety experienced by passengers when service is unreliable because of late departure or longer-than-expected in-vehicle travel time. This anxiety is modeled as a generalized cost penalty that is added to actual in-vehicle time. The magnitude of the penalty depends on travelers’ assessment of the likelihood of arriving on time at their destination. It is believed that this formulation of anxiety is behaviorally representative. To test the effects of the formulation, a simulation model is generated that quantifies the anxiety component of generalized cost for 10,000 travelers with various aversions to risk for travel between station pairs with different observed reliabilities. Results suggest that primarily for risk-averse travelers, but also f...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2007
This paper analyzes the potential to, and impacts of, increasing transit modal split in a polycen... more This paper analyzes the potential to, and impacts of, increasing transit modal split in a polycentric metropolitan areathe Philadelphia, Pennsylvania region. Potential transit riders are preselected as those travelers whose trips begin and end in areas with transit-supportive land uses, defined as ''activity centers,'' areas of high-density employment and trip attraction. A multimodal traffic assignment model is developed and solved to quantify the generalized cost of travel by transit services and private automobile under (user) equilibrium conditions. The model predicts transit modal split by identifying the origin-destination pairs for which transit offers lower generalized cost. For those origin-destination pairs for which transit does not offer the lowest generalized cost, I compute a transit competitiveness measure, the ratio of transit generalized cost to auto generalized cost. The model is first formulated and solved for existing transit service and regional pricing schemes. Next, various transit incentives (travel time or fare reductions, increased service) and auto disincentives (higher out of pocket expenses) are proposed and their impacts on individual travel choices and system performance are quantified. The results suggest that a coordinated policy of improved transit service and some auto disincentives is necessary to achieve greater modal split and improved system efficiency in the region. Further, the research finds that two levels of coordinated transit service, between and within activity centers, are necessary to realize the greatest improvements in system performance.