Jeffrey Smith - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jeffrey Smith

American journal of health economics, Feb 1, 2018

We thank Abigail Friedman and Don Kenkel for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge funding ... more We thank Abigail Friedman and Don Kenkel for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge funding for this project from NIH grant number 5R03CA182990 and, for Levy, from NIA grant number K01AG034232. The funders played no role in the study design, analysis, writing, or the decision to submit the article for publication The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Social Science Research Network, 2003

This paper decomposes the participation process of a prototypical program into eligibility, aware... more This paper decomposes the participation process of a prototypical program into eligibility, awareness, application, acceptance and enrollment. With this decomposition, we determine the sources of unequal participation for different groups, and demonstrate that variables often have very different effects at different stages in the participation process. Our analysis shows that personal choices substantially affect participation and that awareness of program eligibility is a major source of variation in participation.

Labour Economics, Dec 1, 2022

We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist fram... more We provide simple tests for selection on unobserved variables in the Vytlacil-Imbens-Angrist framework for Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs). Our setup allows researchers not only to test for selection on either or both of the treated and untreated outcomes, but also to assess the magnitude of the selection effect. We show that it applies to the standard binary instrument case, as well as to experiments with imperfect compliance and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs, and we link it to broader discussions regarding instrumental variables. We illustrate the substantive value-added by our framework with three empirical applications drawn from the literature.

Social Science Research Network, 2017

Selection Bias in Evaluating Treatment Effects: Some Formal Illustration The Event-History Approa... more Selection Bias in Evaluating Treatment Effects: Some Formal Illustration The Event-History Approach to Program Evaluation Bayesian Analysis of Treatment Effects in an Ordered Potential Outcomes Model Instrumental Variables Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect in the Correlated Random Coefficient Model Evaluating The Effects of Job Training Programs on Wages through Principal Stratification Graphical Diagnostics of Endogeneity Fertility and the Health of Children: A Nonparametric Investigation Program Participation, Labor Force Dynamics, and Accepted Wage Rates When is ATE Enough? Risk Aversion and Inequality Aversion in Evaluating Training Programs Practical Issues When Estimating Dynamic Treatment Models by Matching Methods Panel Data Models and Transitory Fluctuations in the Explanatory Variable An Empirical Assessment of Effects of Parenthood on Wages The Employment Effects of Job Creation Schemes in Germany - A Microeconometric Evaluation

Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research pu... more Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world's largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

Managers of workforce training programs are often unable to afford costly, full-fledged experimen... more Managers of workforce training programs are often unable to afford costly, full-fledged experimental or nonexperimental evaluations to determine their programs’ impacts. Therefore, many rely on the survey responses of program participants to gauge program impacts. Smith, Whalley, and Wilcox present the first attempt to assess such measures despite their already widespread use in program evaluations. They develop a multidisciplinary framework for addressing the issue and apply it to three case studies.

Economic Inquiry, 2020

We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth unem... more We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth unemployment insurance (UI) recipients during the Great Recession. The three programs that emphasized monitoring and service referrals reduced UI receipt but had minimal effects on employment and earnings; these programs mainly induced the early exit of participants. The fourth program, which combined mandatory job counseling with monitoring, caused the largest reductions in UI receipt and clearly increased employment and earnings. Both early participant exits and effective job counseling underlie these impacts. We conclude that policymakers should require job counseling for youth UI recipients during recessions. (JEL J0, J6, H4)

IZA World of Labor, 2018

If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Comm... more If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published i... more Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

Fiscal Studies, 2016

There is little current information regarding the long‐term persistence of health spending in the... more There is little current information regarding the long‐term persistence of health spending in the United States, in particular among the population aged under 65 (pre‐Medicare eligibility). We describe and model the extent of persistence over a six‐year period (2003–08) using medical and pharmacy claims for over 3 million employees, retirees and dependants derived from the Truven Health MarketScan database. Overall, substantial persistence in spending exists, particularly at the extremes of the distribution and for pharmaceutical spending. Error components models are estimated to separate transient from persistent variation in spending, and dynamic probit models are estimated to assess the predictive power of demographic and co‐morbid conditions and prior high spending in determining the likelihood of future high spending. A better understanding of the persistence of health spending can inform the selection and evaluation of appropriate interventions to address high costs, and can h...

IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2014

We estimate the effects of the vocational rehabilitation (VR) program run by the Canada Pension P... more We estimate the effects of the vocational rehabilitation (VR) program run by the Canada Pension Plan Disability Program using administrative data. Identification relies on “selection on observed variables” plus careful comparison group selection and institutional knowledge regarding sources of conditional variation in participation. We employ several matching and weighting estimators and emphasize flexible conditioning on variables suggested by theory, the institutional setup and the literature. We find modest, and imprecisely estimated, impacts on employment outcomes for men and larger, sometimes statistically significant, impacts for women. A formal sensitivity analysis finds our results are quite robust to lingering selection on unobserved variables.JEL codesI38; J08; J24

Empirical Economics, 2012

The literature on the estimation of treatment effects has matured in economics. The potential out... more The literature on the estimation of treatment effects has matured in economics. The potential outcomes framework guides the estimation of the causal effect of economic choices or policy interventions. The application of methods from the treatment effects literature has spread from the analysis of the effects of labor market programs and the wage return to education to other areas in economics. This special issue involves methodological developments and state-of-the art applications of

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2016

Viewpoint: Estimating the Causal Effects of Policies and Programs * Estimation, inference and int... more Viewpoint: Estimating the Causal Effects of Policies and Programs * Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the "credibility revolution," and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost-benefit analyses.

Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States

, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The author thanks Jill Co... more , and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The author thanks Jill Corcoran for her excellent research assistance. 518 Robert J. LaLonde 1. See Heckman, Roselius, and Smith (1994) for an instructive calculation of how large the public commitment to these programs would have to be to affect these outcomes. 2. Unless otherwise indicated, costs and expenditures figures presented in this chapter are expressed in 1999 dollars. 520 Robert J. LaLonde 522 Robert J. LaLonde 3. Much of current U.S. employment and training policy evolved during the 1960s. There are several sources that provide details of this history and of the subsequent changes in these policies since that time. Levitan and Mangum (1969) provide a detailed description of the programs that were created during the 1960s. Taggart (1981) does the same for training policy during the 1970s. The history of these programs during the 1980s and 1990s is covered in various reports of the National Commission for Employment Policy (see, e.g., National Commission for Employment Policy 1987, 1995). Another resource is various volumes of the Manpower Report of the President and the Employment and Training Report of the Secretary of Labor; see the references for examples. 524 Robert J. LaLonde 4. These training costs varied depending on the skills that were being provided. During fiscal year 1964, the direct costs of training nurse's aides, not including stipends, averaged 937,comparedwiththedirectcostsoftrainingalicensednurse,whichaveragednearly937, compared with the direct costs of training a licensed nurse, which averaged nearly 937,comparedwiththedirectcostsoftrainingalicensednurse,whichaveragednearly6,000. 528 Robert J. LaLonde 566 Robert J. LaLonde 23. When experimental data are available, a nonexperimental estimator of the training effect uses the variable indicating whether an individual was randomly assigned into the treatment group as an instrument (Imbens and Angrist 1994).

Abstract: This chapter presents a study which used data from the US National Longitudinal Survey ... more Abstract: This chapter presents a study which used data from the US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to examine racial differences in the effects of college quality and student diversity on wages. The study investigated whether the economic benefit of college quality might be higher for groups helped by diversity programs and whether a racially diverse student body would directly benefit all students. The NLSY provided data on student characteristics and demographics, student ability, college attended, and post-college ...

Handbook of Labor Economics, 1999

SSRN Electronic Journal

How well do program participants assess program performance ex-post? In this paper we compare par... more How well do program participants assess program performance ex-post? In this paper we compare participant evaluations based on survey responses to econometric impact estimates obtained using data from the experimental evaluation of the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act. We have two main findings: First, the participant evaluations are unrelated to the econometric impact estimates. Second, the participant evaluations do covary with impact proxies such as service intensity, outcome levels, and before-after outcome differences. Our results suggest that program participants behave as 'lay scientists' who seek to estimate the impact of the program but face cognitive challenges in doing so. JEL Codes: I28, J24, C83 Word count (main text): 10,927 (file) 14,216 We thank the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research for funding this research.

Policies and programs undertaken to increase local economic development by governments and by pri... more Policies and programs undertaken to increase local economic development by governments and by private agencies may have positive effects, or they may not. In some cases, a lack of effects may result from poor program design or inadequate funding. In other cases, a lack of effect may result from the fact that the program really exists to funnel money to politically influential firms, individuals or groups, with the local economic development justification used as cover. When programs do not produce benefits in terms of local economic ...