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Papers by Jerome Bracken

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Demonstration of Capability

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Summary of Development and Application

Research paper thumbnail of Analyzing the Implications of a Single Salary System (Conference Briefing)

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling for Fluorspar and Hydroflouric Acid and Implications for Further Analyses

Abstract : IDA Modeled the supply chains for acid-grade fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid for the S... more Abstract : IDA Modeled the supply chains for acid-grade fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid for the Strategic and Critical Materials 2015 Report on Stockpile Requirements for the Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM). Acid-grade fluorspar was projected to suffer a shortfall in the stockpile report. Most acid-grade fluorspar is used to produce hydrofluoric acid (HF), which is used to produce most fluorine-containing products. Imported HF can substitute for fluorspar if the accessible global HF supply is sufficient. IDA analyzed the supply chain using the Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM), using the same approach for assessing shortfalls for other materials analyzed for the stockpile report. Both fluorspar and HF exhibited gross (unmitigated) shortfalls in the standard Base Case military conflict scenario used for stockpile requirements planning. Potential market responses to the shortfalls were evaluated, and it was estimated that material conservation (thrifting) could reduce demand sufficiently to eliminate both shortfalls. The fluorspar/HF case shows the value of supply chain analysis: identifying a shortfall in a downstream material form that exists because of inadequate domestic and foreign downstream material processing capacity. Many materials of interest to DLA with downstream processing capacities in foreign countries could potentially benefit from similar analysis.

Research paper thumbnail of MX Missile Basing and ABM Defenses

Research paper thumbnail of A linear programming model for minimum-cost procurement and operation of marine corps training aircraft

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mar 1, 1968

Research paper thumbnail of Ground, Air, and Air Defense Force Concentration Model

Research paper thumbnail of Formulas and a Computer Program For Tabulation of Selected Investment Factors

The Engineering Economist, 1963

Research paper thumbnail of Sustaining the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) Program

Research paper thumbnail of Stability, SDI, Air Defense and Deep Cuts

This paper treats two-sided issues of the transition from current strategic force structures to a... more This paper treats two-sided issues of the transition from current strategic force structures to alternative strategic force structures.

Research paper thumbnail of A Strategic Weapons Exchange Allocation Model

Operations Research, Dec 1, 1977

Research paper thumbnail of Revised OPTSA Model. Volume 1: Methodology

Research paper thumbnail of Mathematical Programs with Optimization Problems in the Constraints

Operations Research, Feb 1, 1973

This paper considers a class of optimization problems characterized by constraints that themselve... more This paper considers a class of optimization problems characterized by constraints that themselves contain optimization problems. The problems in the constraints can be linear programs, nonlinear programs, or two-sided optimization problems, including certain types of games. The paper presents theory dealing primarily with properties of the relevant functions that result in convex programming problems, and discusses interpretations of this theory. It gives an application with linear programs in the constraints, and discusses computational methods for solving the problems.

Research paper thumbnail of Portfolio Analysis in the Context of the Concept Decision Process

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of strategic defenses to provide specified post-attack production capacities

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Dec 1, 1974

Research paper thumbnail of Tables for Normal Sampling with Unknown Variance. The Student Distribution and Economically Optimal Sampling Plans

Technometrics, Feb 1, 1965

Research paper thumbnail of IDA GROUND-AIR MODEL I (IDAGAM I) Volume 1. Comprehensive Description

Research paper thumbnail of Robust Dynamic Strategy Model: Time-Phased Allocation of Combat and support Forces to Theater and Deep Attack Forces to Missions for Stochastic Alliance Scenarios

Military operations research, Jun 1, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives to Strike and Incentives to Preempt

Springer eBooks, 1995

... IMPLICATIONS DH Olwell LTC Dave Olwell is an assistant profes-sor in the Department of Mathem... more ... IMPLICATIONS DH Olwell LTC Dave Olwell is an assistant profes-sor in the Department of Mathematical Sci-ences at the United States Military Acad-emy at West ... Born on June 19th, 1945 at Madina of Arambagh district of West Bengal in India, Syed Alam completed his M. Sc. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Layered defense of deceptively based ICBMs

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Dec 1, 1984

The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballis... more The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballistic missile defense are two of the methods available to attempt to insure that there are ICBMs surviving after undergoing an attack. This article treats tradeoffs among missiles, silos or shelters, exoatmospheric interceptors, and endoatmospheric interceptors. Most of the analysis deals with 200 missiles, the number of MX missiles which were recommended to be moved among the 4600 shelters of the Multiple Protective Shelter (MPS) deployment, though some variants in the number of missiles (from 115 to 400) are also treated here. The basic reference point of the analysis is the provision of 1000 ICBM warheads delivered in a second strike. The combination of exoatmospheric interceptors and endoatmospheric interceptors is referred to as “layered defense.” Warheads are destroyed by interceptors after the warheads separate from the missile which carries them. Exoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve a non‐nuclear kill, while endoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve either a non‐nuclear or nuclear kill, depending on the technology available to both sides. Exoatmospheric interceptors may be capable of protecting value targets against the warheads of a second strike. To the extent that this can be achieved, they facilitate a first strike with relative impunity and hence are destabilizing. This article explores various layered defense topics.

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Demonstration of Capability

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling: Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM) Summary of Development and Application

Research paper thumbnail of Analyzing the Implications of a Single Salary System (Conference Briefing)

Research paper thumbnail of Supply Chain Modeling for Fluorspar and Hydroflouric Acid and Implications for Further Analyses

Abstract : IDA Modeled the supply chains for acid-grade fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid for the S... more Abstract : IDA Modeled the supply chains for acid-grade fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid for the Strategic and Critical Materials 2015 Report on Stockpile Requirements for the Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials (DLA SM). Acid-grade fluorspar was projected to suffer a shortfall in the stockpile report. Most acid-grade fluorspar is used to produce hydrofluoric acid (HF), which is used to produce most fluorine-containing products. Imported HF can substitute for fluorspar if the accessible global HF supply is sufficient. IDA analyzed the supply chain using the Downstream Risk Assessment Methodology (DRAM), using the same approach for assessing shortfalls for other materials analyzed for the stockpile report. Both fluorspar and HF exhibited gross (unmitigated) shortfalls in the standard Base Case military conflict scenario used for stockpile requirements planning. Potential market responses to the shortfalls were evaluated, and it was estimated that material conservation (thrifting) could reduce demand sufficiently to eliminate both shortfalls. The fluorspar/HF case shows the value of supply chain analysis: identifying a shortfall in a downstream material form that exists because of inadequate domestic and foreign downstream material processing capacity. Many materials of interest to DLA with downstream processing capacities in foreign countries could potentially benefit from similar analysis.

Research paper thumbnail of MX Missile Basing and ABM Defenses

Research paper thumbnail of A linear programming model for minimum-cost procurement and operation of marine corps training aircraft

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mar 1, 1968

Research paper thumbnail of Ground, Air, and Air Defense Force Concentration Model

Research paper thumbnail of Formulas and a Computer Program For Tabulation of Selected Investment Factors

The Engineering Economist, 1963

Research paper thumbnail of Sustaining the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) Program

Research paper thumbnail of Stability, SDI, Air Defense and Deep Cuts

This paper treats two-sided issues of the transition from current strategic force structures to a... more This paper treats two-sided issues of the transition from current strategic force structures to alternative strategic force structures.

Research paper thumbnail of A Strategic Weapons Exchange Allocation Model

Operations Research, Dec 1, 1977

Research paper thumbnail of Revised OPTSA Model. Volume 1: Methodology

Research paper thumbnail of Mathematical Programs with Optimization Problems in the Constraints

Operations Research, Feb 1, 1973

This paper considers a class of optimization problems characterized by constraints that themselve... more This paper considers a class of optimization problems characterized by constraints that themselves contain optimization problems. The problems in the constraints can be linear programs, nonlinear programs, or two-sided optimization problems, including certain types of games. The paper presents theory dealing primarily with properties of the relevant functions that result in convex programming problems, and discusses interpretations of this theory. It gives an application with linear programs in the constraints, and discusses computational methods for solving the problems.

Research paper thumbnail of Portfolio Analysis in the Context of the Concept Decision Process

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of strategic defenses to provide specified post-attack production capacities

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Dec 1, 1974

Research paper thumbnail of Tables for Normal Sampling with Unknown Variance. The Student Distribution and Economically Optimal Sampling Plans

Technometrics, Feb 1, 1965

Research paper thumbnail of IDA GROUND-AIR MODEL I (IDAGAM I) Volume 1. Comprehensive Description

Research paper thumbnail of Robust Dynamic Strategy Model: Time-Phased Allocation of Combat and support Forces to Theater and Deep Attack Forces to Missions for Stochastic Alliance Scenarios

Military operations research, Jun 1, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives to Strike and Incentives to Preempt

Springer eBooks, 1995

... IMPLICATIONS DH Olwell LTC Dave Olwell is an assistant profes-sor in the Department of Mathem... more ... IMPLICATIONS DH Olwell LTC Dave Olwell is an assistant profes-sor in the Department of Mathematical Sci-ences at the United States Military Acad-emy at West ... Born on June 19th, 1945 at Madina of Arambagh district of West Bengal in India, Syed Alam completed his M. Sc. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Layered defense of deceptively based ICBMs

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Dec 1, 1984

The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballis... more The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballistic missile defense are two of the methods available to attempt to insure that there are ICBMs surviving after undergoing an attack. This article treats tradeoffs among missiles, silos or shelters, exoatmospheric interceptors, and endoatmospheric interceptors. Most of the analysis deals with 200 missiles, the number of MX missiles which were recommended to be moved among the 4600 shelters of the Multiple Protective Shelter (MPS) deployment, though some variants in the number of missiles (from 115 to 400) are also treated here. The basic reference point of the analysis is the provision of 1000 ICBM warheads delivered in a second strike. The combination of exoatmospheric interceptors and endoatmospheric interceptors is referred to as “layered defense.” Warheads are destroyed by interceptors after the warheads separate from the missile which carries them. Exoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve a non‐nuclear kill, while endoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve either a non‐nuclear or nuclear kill, depending on the technology available to both sides. Exoatmospheric interceptors may be capable of protecting value targets against the warheads of a second strike. To the extent that this can be achieved, they facilitate a first strike with relative impunity and hence are destabilizing. This article explores various layered defense topics.

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