Jeryl Mumpower - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jeryl Mumpower

Journal of health and human services administration, 2010

Data from NIS-4, NCANDS, and the State of California were used to analyze the front end of the ch... more Data from NIS-4, NCANDS, and the State of California were used to analyze the front end of the child welfare services system--the referral and substantiation components--in terms of the system's ability to diagnose or detect instances of child maltreatment. The analyses show that Blacks are disproportionately represented in rates of referral into the system. Moreover, the analyses demonstrate that the system is less accurate for Blacks than for other racial or ethnic groups. There is a higher rate of false positives (or "false alarms") for Blacks than for other groups--that is, referrals leading to unsubstantiated findings. There is also a higher rate of false negatives (or "misses") for Blacks than for other groups--that is, children for whom no referral was made but who are in fact neglected or abused. The rate of true positives (or "hits")--children for whom a referral has been made and for whom that allegation has been substantiated--is generall...

Bush School Working Paper # 605 No part of the Bush School transmission may be copied, downloaded... more Bush School Working Paper # 605 No part of the Bush School transmission may be copied, downloaded, stored, further transmitted, transferred, distributed, altered, or otherwise used, in any form or by any means, except: (1) one stored copy for personal use, non-commercial use, or (2) prior written consent. No alterations of the transmission or removal of copyright notices is permitted.

Fairness and Competence in Citizen Participation, 1995

The scale of the Dutch national debate on energy policy (or, BMD, to use its Dutch abbreviation) ... more The scale of the Dutch national debate on energy policy (or, BMD, to use its Dutch abbreviation) is remarkable. A brief review of a few key facts underscores its singularity (de Hoo and Ouwnes 1987; Midden 1995). The overall project was funded for over 29 million Dutch guilders (about US $15 million, in early 1980’ s currency). The Steering Committee that oversaw the project was legally incorporated as a foundation and was supported by a multi-disciplinary staff of 30 people.

Risk Analysis, 1988

There are strong structural similarities between risks from technological hazards and big-purse s... more There are strong structural similarities between risks from technological hazards and big-purse state lottery games. Risks from technological hazards are often described as low-probability, high-consequence negative events. State lotteries could be equally well characterized as low-probability, high-consequence positive events. Typical communications about state lotteries provide a virtual strategic textbook for opponents of risky technologies. The same techniques can be used to sell lottery tickets or "sell" opposition to risky technologies. Eight basic principles are enumerated.

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1995

Group Decision and Negotiation, 1996

... The second case study involves a labor-management contract problem, in which the negotiators&... more ... The second case study involves a labor-management contract problem, in which the negotiators' interests were highly discordant. Key words: negotiation, design, resource allocation, analytical mediation, problem structure 1. Introduction ...

In a 2013 US national public opinion survey, data were collected from 1321 adult respondents for ... more In a 2013 US national public opinion survey, data were collected from 1321
adult respondents for five psychometric variables – Dread, Scientists’ Level of
Understanding, Public’s Level of Understanding, Number Affected, and Likelihood
– for six threats (sea-level rise, increased flooding, and four others) associated
with climate change. Respondents also rated perceived risk and indicated
the resource level that they believed should be invested in management programs
for each threat. Responses did not vary significantly across the six threats, so
they were combined. The survey collected standard demographic information, as
well as measuring climate change knowledge and environmental values (New
Ecological Paradigm, NEP). Psychometric variables predicted perceived risk
extremely well (R = .890, p < .001); all five psychometric variables were
significant predictors. The results were generally consistent with previous
research except that Scientists’ Level of Understanding was a positive, rather
than negative, predictor of perceived risk. Jointly the demographic variables,
knowledge, and environmental values significantly predicted perceived risk
(R = .504, p < .001). Consistent with previous research, significant positive predictors
were age, Democratic Party Identification, and NEP score; significant
negative predictors were male gender and White ethnicity. When demographic
variables, knowledge, and environmental values were added to psychometric
ones, only the psychometric variables were statistically significant predictors. Perceived
risk strongly predicted resource level (r = .772, p < .001). Adding demographic,
knowledge, and environmental value variables to perceived risk as
predictors of resource level did not appreciably increase overall predictive ability
(r = .790, p < .001), although White ethnicity emerged as a significant negative
predictor and religiosity, Democratic Party Identification, Liberal Political Ideology,
and NEP score were significant positive predictors. The results demonstrate
that risk perceptions of climate change and policy preferences among climate
change management options are highly predictable as a function of demographic,
knowledge, environmental values, and psychometric variables. Among these, psychometric
variables were found to be the strongest predictors.

Journal of Forecasting, 1987

ABSTRACT

This book presents the cooperative efforts of political scientists, philosophers, policy analysts... more This book presents the cooperative efforts of political scientists, philosophers, policy analysts, and other specialists from many fields, in the social and behavioral study of issues in risk management and risk evaluation. Topics covered include the psychometric study of risk perception, risk, rationalism, and rationality, methods for comparing the risks of technologies, improving risk analysis, alternative risk management policies for state and loval governments, the management of risk, and science and analysis: roles in risk and decision making.

An academic directory and search engine.

Journal of Risk Research, 2015

Medical Decision Making

Physicians' diagnoses of acute otitis media (AOM) and their treatment choices were investigat... more Physicians' diagnoses of acute otitis media (AOM) and their treatment choices were investigated using judgment and decision-making analyses. Thirty-two pediatricians in the Albany, New York, area provided probability judgments of the presence of AOM and made treatment decisions for 32 patient vignettes, each described in terms of historical and examination variables. Their probability judgments were well predicted by linear combinations of the patient variables (R2s ranged from 0.76 to 0.97). Information about the observed condition of the eardrum proved to be most critical to the physicians' diagnoses. They demonstrated good levels of agreement on diagnoses. They varied, however, in their tendencies to treat with amoxicillin rather than another antibiotic. Case vagueness was related to the rate of antibiotic treatment. The rate of antibiotic treatment was higher for vague than for non-vague cases when the mean judged probability of AOM was low. In combination, the findings ...