Jessica Cohen - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Jessica Cohen
The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, unc... more The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). If we adopt a PESTLE analytical model (which includes political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors), we can see that new technologies are the great “game changers”. This concept, usually considered in foresight and future studies, can be defined as “a new introduced element of factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way”. This technological factor (T-factor) is changing the way that we live, think, interact, communicate, or access services in an increasingly digital world. Considering what Lowenthal and other authors have pointed out, intelligence tradecraft is in a permanent process of “fatigue reform”. This paper will identify how technologies are: first, affecting the so-called intelligence cycle; second, offering new opportunities to collect, evaluate and integrate old and new sources...
Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional, 2016
Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenóm... more Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenómeno, tendencias y medidas a adoptar
Lecciones aprendidas de la historia del narco en México. Análisis de las dimensiones del control ... more Lecciones aprendidas de la historia del narco en México. Análisis de las dimensiones del control del narco: territorio, instituciones, economía, sociedad y cultura. Medidas
Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A rev... more Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous emergence of new scenarios, like those represented by “lone actors” and “foreign fighters”. The complexity of the situation is due to the variety of quantitative and qualitative factors involved. Uncertainty is a key characteristic of our societies, generating fears that must be managed by governments and security institutions. Before defining new policies it is needed an analysis of the current situation of the phenomenon and its possible evolution. Critical thinking, loads of imagination, creative foresight and horizon scanning methodologies would be the pillars of the research. Policies are usually led by events and by social perception of risk. We propose a holistic approach that integrates the lessons learned from the past with modern foresight methodologies, intelligence analysis, evidence-based policing, and decision-making models. It is possible to manage our uncertainties in the present, a time and a matter in which perhaps we feel lost, but we must be sure that we are walking in a correct direction.
El año 2015 presenta multitud de amenazas, pero también de oportunidades. La incertidumbre vino p... more El año 2015 presenta multitud de amenazas, pero también de oportunidades. La incertidumbre vino
para quedarse, y la inestabilidad es una de sus manifestaciones, igual que el miedo uno de sus
efectos. El presente documento destaca los aspectos políticos, económicos, sociales, tecnológicos,
medioambientales y de seguridad que posiblemente marquen el año. Adicionalmente ofrece una
guía de los principales eventos a considerar
The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, unc... more The world is continuously evolving in regards to the so-called VUCA environments (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). If we adopt a PESTLE analytical model (which includes political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors), we can see that new technologies are the great “game changers”. This concept, usually considered in foresight and future studies, can be defined as “a new introduced element of factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way”. This technological factor (T-factor) is changing the way that we live, think, interact, communicate, or access services in an increasingly digital world. Considering what Lowenthal and other authors have pointed out, intelligence tradecraft is in a permanent process of “fatigue reform”. This paper will identify how technologies are: first, affecting the so-called intelligence cycle; second, offering new opportunities to collect, evaluate and integrate old and new sources...
Revista de Estudios en Seguridad Internacional, 2016
Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenóm... more Ideología, tipología, grupos, terrorismo, actividades criminales, análisis crítico sobre el fenómeno, tendencias y medidas a adoptar
Lecciones aprendidas de la historia del narco en México. Análisis de las dimensiones del control ... more Lecciones aprendidas de la historia del narco en México. Análisis de las dimensiones del control del narco: territorio, instituciones, economía, sociedad y cultura. Medidas
Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A rev... more Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous emergence of new scenarios, like those represented by “lone actors” and “foreign fighters”. The complexity of the situation is due to the variety of quantitative and qualitative factors involved. Uncertainty is a key characteristic of our societies, generating fears that must be managed by governments and security institutions. Before defining new policies it is needed an analysis of the current situation of the phenomenon and its possible evolution. Critical thinking, loads of imagination, creative foresight and horizon scanning methodologies would be the pillars of the research. Policies are usually led by events and by social perception of risk. We propose a holistic approach that integrates the lessons learned from the past with modern foresight methodologies, intelligence analysis, evidence-based policing, and decision-making models. It is possible to manage our uncertainties in the present, a time and a matter in which perhaps we feel lost, but we must be sure that we are walking in a correct direction.
El año 2015 presenta multitud de amenazas, pero también de oportunidades. La incertidumbre vino p... more El año 2015 presenta multitud de amenazas, pero también de oportunidades. La incertidumbre vino
para quedarse, y la inestabilidad es una de sus manifestaciones, igual que el miedo uno de sus
efectos. El presente documento destaca los aspectos políticos, económicos, sociales, tecnológicos,
medioambientales y de seguridad que posiblemente marquen el año. Adicionalmente ofrece una
guía de los principales eventos a considerar