John Antal - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by John Antal
Military, 7 Leadership Lessons of D-Day, Aug 19, 2017
The odds were against the Allies on June 6, 1944. The task ahead of the paratroopers who jumped o... more The odds were against the Allies on June 6, 1944. The task ahead of the paratroopers who jumped over Normandy and the soldiers who waded ashore onto the beaches, all under fire, was colossal. In such circumstances, good leadership can be the defining factor in victory or defeat. This book is about the extraordinary leadership of seven men who led American soldiers on D-Day and the days that followed. Some of them, like Eisenhower, Theodore Roosevelt Jr., and Lieutenant Dick Winters, are well known, while others are barely a footnote in the history books.
All of them made a dramatic difference during Operation Overlord. All understood that they had a mission to accomplish and that if they failed to lead, that mission would fail and more men would die. When things did not go as planned, they took action, adapted and overcame – they were leaders. Leadership was the only ingredient that would get them through the storm of death surrounding them and their men.
This book is not a full history of D-Day, nor does it cover the heroic leadership shown by men in the armies of the Allies or members of the French Resistance who also participated in the Normandy assault and battles for the lodgment areas. It is, however, a primer on how you can lead today, no matter what your occupation or role in life, by learning from the leadership of these seven.
See: https://www.amazon.com/Leadership-Lessons-D-Day-Longest-Day_June/dp/1612005292. and. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khyFQXw9Db0
The Convergence - An Army Mad Scientist Podcast, 2022
COL John Antal (USA, Ret.) is a lifelong student of leadership and the art of war. His purpose in... more COL John Antal (USA, Ret.) is a lifelong student of leadership and the art of war. His purpose in life is “to develop leaders and inspire service.” Today, he is an Amazon best-selling author, a defense analyst, a military correspondent, and a galvanic speaker. John has appeared on radio, podcast, and television shows and is the author of 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles on military and leadership subjects. His latest books are Leadership Rising (July 2021); and 7 Seconds to Die, A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022). In the past year, based on his in-depth study of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, COL Antal has made over 108 presentations on the “changing methods of warfare” to U.S. military and national security leaders. He offers these presentations to the U.S. military at no charge and as a “Soldier for Life.” His previous The Convergence podcast — Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War — and its associated blog post remain Army Mad Scientist’s “best-selling” listens and reads to date!
In today’s podcast, COL Antal returns to discuss the challenges facing our Army in executing continuous and uninterrupted mission command in the contemporary battlespace, ensuring command post survivability, and achieving the Joint Force’s requirement for an All Domain Common Operational Picture. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:
In the past sixty years some of history's most horrific conflicts have been played out in ste... more In the past sixty years some of history's most horrific conflicts have been played out in steel and concrete forests of urban battlefields. City Fights presents a series of stories based on classic urban encounters, from Stalingrad and Warsaw, to Berlin and Hue City, describing in detail this difficult and deadly form of warfare. *Written by 14, military veterans and expert military thinkers *Provides insights into the evolution of modern combat
Taking Charge - Leadership Stories, 2013
Leadership: Taking Charge, 7 Leadership Stories, by Colonel (Ret.) John Antal John Antal’s pu... more Leadership: Taking Charge, 7 Leadership Stories, by Colonel (Ret.) John Antal
John Antal’s purpose in life is to develop leaders and inspire service. What is your purpose? IN this short video, John tells stories of leadership that will inspire you to raise your leadership. John is an award-winning, Amazon best selling author of 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles about leadership, history, and war. He has been a successful magazine editor, and a frequent contributor to radio, podcast, and television shows concerning leadership and current military events. His latest books are Leadership Rising (July 2021) and 7 Seconds to Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022). Go to this link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovOMtoRpIig
Military Technology , 2020
Tanks and armored vehicles are essential to conducting combined arms operations, even in an era w... more Tanks and armored vehicles are essential to conducting combined arms operations, even in an era where the increasing effectiveness of Long Range Precision Firers (LRPF), combined with multi-domain sensor networks, are making the battlespace extremely lethal. The old designs of most legacy armored vehicles, with their limited SA, restricted connectivity, and the inability to mask from enemy sensor networks, are increasingly making those vehicles irrelevant. Upgrading existing platforms with enhanced SA derived from see-through-armor systems is a promising first step to address this challenge. As AI assisted sensor-shooter neural networks evolve in the next decade, transparent armor will become essential. The ability to have crew members operate inside the protection of the vehicle’s hull, where the armor is strongest, will become essential. The vehicle commander’s ability to see and understand his surroundings and the key objects in his battlespace, will make the difference between being the hunter or becoming the hunted. As these technologies mature, the role of armored vehicles in future wars will be enhanced. In peer- on-peer combat, rather than becoming obsolete in the battlespace of 2030 and beyond, MBTs and IFVs will become essential fighting components and nodes in an increasing powerful kill-web, but only if new, clean-slate designed systems are developed.
The new era of enhanced armored vehicle SA is just beginning. The next step in armored SA will be to see both near and far, connect with every intelligent weapon system within range, visualize a holistic view of the battlespace in real-time, and do all this without increasing the cognitive load on the vehicle commander and crew. Combining the recent advancements in SA, with improved battlefield connectivity and intelligent weapons lays the foundation for a major shift in warfighting. The armored vehicle SA systems described above are the genesis of the cognitive enhanced systems that will lead the way to redefine the future of armored warfare and multi- domain operations.
Military Technology , 2020
Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will transform warfare dramatically and increase the ... more Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will transform warfare dramatically and increase the speed of combat operations in future wars. AI and multi-domain sensor networks will connect every smart and intelligent weapon system and sensor to form a brilliant kill web. Current trends in
the development of long range precision fires, extensive mesh sensor networks, and AI promise to dominate the future battlefield and render maneuver costly, difficult, or impossible. Understanding and preparing for this change takes foresight that can be gained by comprehending the nature of war and studying the current technological trends. Developing “clean sheet” combat vehicle designs that fuse the masking of ground systems with the AI cognitive systems to enable MDO Fusion will offer a revolutionary means to survive, fight and win in the lethal 2040 battlespace.
European Security and Defense, 2021
Visualizing battle in multiple domains is challenging. To conduct cross-domain maneuver, and sync... more Visualizing battle in multiple domains is challenging. To conduct cross-domain maneuver, and synchronize the effects in multiple domains, military leaders must have a multi-domain Common Operational Picture (COP). (US Army photo, Program Executive Office Enterprise Information Systems) Multi-domain operations across the five domains (land, sea, air, cyber, and space) are not new, but new technologies are changing the methods of war. Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), microminiaturization of electrical components, and robotics are driving these changes. An Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT), similar to the commercial Internet of Things (IoT), but with deadlier effect, is emerging. War will be faster and deadlier than ever before. The fusion of networked sensors with projectiles, and the synchronization of the kill-web by AI, will strike targets in multiple domains at hyper-speeds. To act decisively in this complex environment, commanders must visualize the battlespace, see actions as they occur, predict possible effects, more rapidly than the enemy. Human decision-making rests primarily on pattern recognition. Commanders observe, orient, decide, and act (the OODA Loop) by recognizing the pattern the enemy has presented and rapidly applying a counter-pattern. If you can do this faster than your opponent, the enemy will appear to be acting in slow-motion. It is as if a boxer is landing four or five blows for every one blow from the adversary. Accelerating the OODA loop will require enhanced cognitive computer 1
European Security and Defense, 2021
Three small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fly at Edwards Air Force Base, CA., Aug. 21, 2019. Mo... more Three small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fly at Edwards Air Force Base, CA., Aug. 21, 2019. Most small UAVs are battery powered. To extend range and endurance, UAVs are now using hydrogen fuel cell technologies. (US Air Force photo, Staff Sgt. Rachel Simones) The modern weapons of war are thirsty for electrical power. Hybrid engines and all-electric motors promise to be the future of commercial and military systems, but due to cost of replacing entire fleets of vehicles, and the reliability of petrol and diesel engines, most military forces will be tied to internal combustion technology for many years. Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), however, offer an exception. These weapons are playing an increasingly critical role in combat operations and are mostly powered by batteries. For these systems, staying in the air and operating for hours, rather than minutes, can be the difference between mission success or failure. Extending the flight time of small UAVs, therefore, is becoming a priority. There are two primary means of providing electrical power for small UAVs: batteries that store electrical energy or fuel cells that generate electrical power.
ESD, 2021
The trend in ISR is to merge ISR and strike capabilities into the same platform. Future ISR syste... more The trend in ISR is to merge ISR and strike capabilities into the same platform. Future ISR systems will be smaller, lighter, unmanned, and armed with long-range-precision-guided munitions. (Turkish Defense Industries SSB photo) In the fall of 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War provided a glimpse of what the next generation of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) will become: precision-guided munitions with active sensors. In the past, ISR platforms primarily found targets for other systems to destroy. The recent fighting in the Caucasus, which involved two, near-equal medium powers, has shown how ISR and Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs) are now blending to become one. During this conflict, the Azerbaijani forces used strike systems, Unmanned Air Combat Vehicles (UCAVs) and Loitering Munitions (LMs) for ISR. These systems had high-end, active sensors that generated real-time intelligence during combat. In addition, they provided accurate, real-time, battle damage assessment. In the next decade, strike systems will become smaller, less expensive, and better networked. The lessons learned for next generation ISR from this conflict is dramatic, and was a key factor in Azerbaijan's decisive victory. Some of the primary systems used by Azerbaijan, principally the TB2 UCAV and the HAROP LM, provide an important insight into the future of ISR systems.
ESD, 2021
Warfare is changing, and training is not keeping pace. Recent combat actions in Libya, Syria, and... more Warfare is changing, and training is not keeping pace. Recent combat actions in Libya, Syria, and especially in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, demonstrated the value of unmanned systems in conducting precision strikes. According to confirmed drone video footage, during the recent 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan destroyed at least 1,021 Armenian military systems 1
European Security and Defense, 2021
The lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War represent a significant change in the methods of w... more The lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War represent a significant change in the methods of war. This war has significance similar to the impact of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The lessons of the 1973 War influenced the development of tactics and weaponry during the Cold War and beyond. For example, the US military conducted a thorough study of the Yom Kippur War, derived a new doctrine called AirLand Battle, and developed new systems, the “Big 5” — the M1 Main Battle Tank, Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Apache Helicopter, Black Hawk Helicopter, and Patriot Air Defense System. These warfighting platforms, although significantly upgraded, remain the mainstay of the US Army’s striking power today. The methods of war, however, are changing and the recent fighting in the Caucasus provides insights for wars to come. As the first war won primarily with unmanned systems, we neglect the study of the Second Nagorno- Karabakh War at our own peril.
European Security and Defense, 2021
On September 27, 2020, a short and decisive war in the Caucasus erupted that provides a glimpse o... more On September 27, 2020, a short and decisive war in the Caucasus erupted that provides a glimpse of wars to come. Azerbaijan and Armenia clashed in a conflict in rough, mountainous terrain that lasted 44 days and ended in Armenia’s surrender and Azerbaijan’s triumph. The battlespace was the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, the contested region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijanis executed their version of cross-domain maneuver to win a rapid and decisive victory against a defending and determined adversary. To achieve this, the Azerbaijanis invested a reported $24B+ to upgrade their forces, purchasing the latest Turkish and Israeli Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Loitering Munitions (LMs). The effective use by Azerbaijan of these weapons in the war was stunning. The unrelenting tempo, precision, and lethality of the Azerbaijani aerial top-attacks devastated and demoralized the Armenians and played a definitive role in Azerbaijan’s victory. These systems did not win the war by themselves, and UAVs have been over-hyped in many press accounts of the war, but the impact of the high-definition full-motion video (FMV) provided by top-attack systems categorized this conflict as “the war of the drones.” The Azerbaijanis used the secure FMV capabilities of their systems to enhance sensor-shooter integration, to obtain battle damage assessment, and for propaganda to win the information war. In these aspects, especially the use of secure tactical FMV video and data links, the conflict is a harbinger for wars to come.
Military Technology , 2016
What will war look like 2026? If the trends of the three areas above grow to their possible poten... more What will war look like 2026? If the trends of the three areas above grow to their possible potential, high-tech war in 2026 might look like this: First the battlespace is littered with tiny sensors, some the size
of hail, some even smaller. The decisive point is then hammered by precision weaponry designed to devastate the defender no matter how resilient their fortifications. These precision guided munitions will also freeze movement across the battlespace, fixing the opponent, so that anything that moves in the open can be targeted and anything that is targeted can be destroyed. Next, another wave of MAVs (Micro Air Vehicles) fall from the sky to fly onto the battlespace, into buildings, bunkers and caves and relentlessly find their way to their targets. Once these identify their targets, a mobile ground force will move across the terrain to finish the action in close combat. This maneuver force could be a mixed human and robotic force, with robots leading the way. Even in 2026, precision fires will only be half of the equation. Dominant maneuver will still be required to win the fight and occupy ground. Some believe this vision is not only possible, but unstoppable. One thing for certain, the first to leverage these disruptive trends, and put the pieces together into a cohesive military force and doctrine, will have a tremendous advantage.
Military Technology , 2011
To modernize the wisdom of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, “There is no democrac... more To modernize the wisdom of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, “There is no democracy having benefited from prolonged warfare.” These words ring true today and the application of indecisive military force in the internal rebellions of the Arab Spring will surely have second- and third-order effects that we do not fully appreciate. It is time to reevaluate our military concepts and create military solutions that provide rapid decisions suitable for our Republic. Nation building and counterinsurgency operations play to our enemy’s strengths, weaken our military and deplete our treasure. We should rediscover the concept of the strategic raid, where air, land and sea forces work together to go in, break things and kill enemies, to achieve a quick decision on the ground and then withdraw. We must be willing to risk casualties on the ground and in the air in pursuit of vital national interests, or we should not commit military force. The alternative, unfortunately, is to wage wars without end. With the United States already committed to wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and in fighting terrorism around the world—and $14 trillion in debt—this is something that we can ill- afford.
Militayr Technology , 2019
The Middle East has been described as the crucible of conflict and the graveyard of empires. It i... more The Middle East has been described as the crucible of conflict and the graveyard of empires. It is too important to ignore and the lessons from the last two decades of combat hold key insights that must not be ignored. The US Army has just published a two volume study on the lessons from the fighting in Iraq. A similar study concerning Afghanistan is needed. On the Russian side, General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, believes that the Syrian conflict represents “contours of future war” and that Russia is learning priceless lessons on how to conduct operations and how to use the latest military technologies — including robotic systems, drones, sensors, long-range precision fires, C4ISR, and AI. Just as the Spanish Civil War was the incubator for WWII, the Middle East is a proving ground for future conflict. These lessons promise to shape the form of wars to come.
Military, 7 Leadership Lessons of D-Day, Aug 19, 2017
The odds were against the Allies on June 6, 1944. The task ahead of the paratroopers who jumped o... more The odds were against the Allies on June 6, 1944. The task ahead of the paratroopers who jumped over Normandy and the soldiers who waded ashore onto the beaches, all under fire, was colossal. In such circumstances, good leadership can be the defining factor in victory or defeat. This book is about the extraordinary leadership of seven men who led American soldiers on D-Day and the days that followed. Some of them, like Eisenhower, Theodore Roosevelt Jr., and Lieutenant Dick Winters, are well known, while others are barely a footnote in the history books.
All of them made a dramatic difference during Operation Overlord. All understood that they had a mission to accomplish and that if they failed to lead, that mission would fail and more men would die. When things did not go as planned, they took action, adapted and overcame – they were leaders. Leadership was the only ingredient that would get them through the storm of death surrounding them and their men.
This book is not a full history of D-Day, nor does it cover the heroic leadership shown by men in the armies of the Allies or members of the French Resistance who also participated in the Normandy assault and battles for the lodgment areas. It is, however, a primer on how you can lead today, no matter what your occupation or role in life, by learning from the leadership of these seven.
See: https://www.amazon.com/Leadership-Lessons-D-Day-Longest-Day_June/dp/1612005292. and. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khyFQXw9Db0
The Convergence - An Army Mad Scientist Podcast, 2022
COL John Antal (USA, Ret.) is a lifelong student of leadership and the art of war. His purpose in... more COL John Antal (USA, Ret.) is a lifelong student of leadership and the art of war. His purpose in life is “to develop leaders and inspire service.” Today, he is an Amazon best-selling author, a defense analyst, a military correspondent, and a galvanic speaker. John has appeared on radio, podcast, and television shows and is the author of 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles on military and leadership subjects. His latest books are Leadership Rising (July 2021); and 7 Seconds to Die, A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022). In the past year, based on his in-depth study of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, COL Antal has made over 108 presentations on the “changing methods of warfare” to U.S. military and national security leaders. He offers these presentations to the U.S. military at no charge and as a “Soldier for Life.” His previous The Convergence podcast — Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War — and its associated blog post remain Army Mad Scientist’s “best-selling” listens and reads to date!
In today’s podcast, COL Antal returns to discuss the challenges facing our Army in executing continuous and uninterrupted mission command in the contemporary battlespace, ensuring command post survivability, and achieving the Joint Force’s requirement for an All Domain Common Operational Picture. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:
In the past sixty years some of history's most horrific conflicts have been played out in ste... more In the past sixty years some of history's most horrific conflicts have been played out in steel and concrete forests of urban battlefields. City Fights presents a series of stories based on classic urban encounters, from Stalingrad and Warsaw, to Berlin and Hue City, describing in detail this difficult and deadly form of warfare. *Written by 14, military veterans and expert military thinkers *Provides insights into the evolution of modern combat
Taking Charge - Leadership Stories, 2013
Leadership: Taking Charge, 7 Leadership Stories, by Colonel (Ret.) John Antal John Antal’s pu... more Leadership: Taking Charge, 7 Leadership Stories, by Colonel (Ret.) John Antal
John Antal’s purpose in life is to develop leaders and inspire service. What is your purpose? IN this short video, John tells stories of leadership that will inspire you to raise your leadership. John is an award-winning, Amazon best selling author of 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles about leadership, history, and war. He has been a successful magazine editor, and a frequent contributor to radio, podcast, and television shows concerning leadership and current military events. His latest books are Leadership Rising (July 2021) and 7 Seconds to Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022). Go to this link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovOMtoRpIig
Military Technology , 2020
Tanks and armored vehicles are essential to conducting combined arms operations, even in an era w... more Tanks and armored vehicles are essential to conducting combined arms operations, even in an era where the increasing effectiveness of Long Range Precision Firers (LRPF), combined with multi-domain sensor networks, are making the battlespace extremely lethal. The old designs of most legacy armored vehicles, with their limited SA, restricted connectivity, and the inability to mask from enemy sensor networks, are increasingly making those vehicles irrelevant. Upgrading existing platforms with enhanced SA derived from see-through-armor systems is a promising first step to address this challenge. As AI assisted sensor-shooter neural networks evolve in the next decade, transparent armor will become essential. The ability to have crew members operate inside the protection of the vehicle’s hull, where the armor is strongest, will become essential. The vehicle commander’s ability to see and understand his surroundings and the key objects in his battlespace, will make the difference between being the hunter or becoming the hunted. As these technologies mature, the role of armored vehicles in future wars will be enhanced. In peer- on-peer combat, rather than becoming obsolete in the battlespace of 2030 and beyond, MBTs and IFVs will become essential fighting components and nodes in an increasing powerful kill-web, but only if new, clean-slate designed systems are developed.
The new era of enhanced armored vehicle SA is just beginning. The next step in armored SA will be to see both near and far, connect with every intelligent weapon system within range, visualize a holistic view of the battlespace in real-time, and do all this without increasing the cognitive load on the vehicle commander and crew. Combining the recent advancements in SA, with improved battlefield connectivity and intelligent weapons lays the foundation for a major shift in warfighting. The armored vehicle SA systems described above are the genesis of the cognitive enhanced systems that will lead the way to redefine the future of armored warfare and multi- domain operations.
Military Technology , 2020
Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will transform warfare dramatically and increase the ... more Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will transform warfare dramatically and increase the speed of combat operations in future wars. AI and multi-domain sensor networks will connect every smart and intelligent weapon system and sensor to form a brilliant kill web. Current trends in
the development of long range precision fires, extensive mesh sensor networks, and AI promise to dominate the future battlefield and render maneuver costly, difficult, or impossible. Understanding and preparing for this change takes foresight that can be gained by comprehending the nature of war and studying the current technological trends. Developing “clean sheet” combat vehicle designs that fuse the masking of ground systems with the AI cognitive systems to enable MDO Fusion will offer a revolutionary means to survive, fight and win in the lethal 2040 battlespace.
European Security and Defense, 2021
Visualizing battle in multiple domains is challenging. To conduct cross-domain maneuver, and sync... more Visualizing battle in multiple domains is challenging. To conduct cross-domain maneuver, and synchronize the effects in multiple domains, military leaders must have a multi-domain Common Operational Picture (COP). (US Army photo, Program Executive Office Enterprise Information Systems) Multi-domain operations across the five domains (land, sea, air, cyber, and space) are not new, but new technologies are changing the methods of war. Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), microminiaturization of electrical components, and robotics are driving these changes. An Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT), similar to the commercial Internet of Things (IoT), but with deadlier effect, is emerging. War will be faster and deadlier than ever before. The fusion of networked sensors with projectiles, and the synchronization of the kill-web by AI, will strike targets in multiple domains at hyper-speeds. To act decisively in this complex environment, commanders must visualize the battlespace, see actions as they occur, predict possible effects, more rapidly than the enemy. Human decision-making rests primarily on pattern recognition. Commanders observe, orient, decide, and act (the OODA Loop) by recognizing the pattern the enemy has presented and rapidly applying a counter-pattern. If you can do this faster than your opponent, the enemy will appear to be acting in slow-motion. It is as if a boxer is landing four or five blows for every one blow from the adversary. Accelerating the OODA loop will require enhanced cognitive computer 1
European Security and Defense, 2021
Three small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fly at Edwards Air Force Base, CA., Aug. 21, 2019. Mo... more Three small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) fly at Edwards Air Force Base, CA., Aug. 21, 2019. Most small UAVs are battery powered. To extend range and endurance, UAVs are now using hydrogen fuel cell technologies. (US Air Force photo, Staff Sgt. Rachel Simones) The modern weapons of war are thirsty for electrical power. Hybrid engines and all-electric motors promise to be the future of commercial and military systems, but due to cost of replacing entire fleets of vehicles, and the reliability of petrol and diesel engines, most military forces will be tied to internal combustion technology for many years. Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), however, offer an exception. These weapons are playing an increasingly critical role in combat operations and are mostly powered by batteries. For these systems, staying in the air and operating for hours, rather than minutes, can be the difference between mission success or failure. Extending the flight time of small UAVs, therefore, is becoming a priority. There are two primary means of providing electrical power for small UAVs: batteries that store electrical energy or fuel cells that generate electrical power.
ESD, 2021
The trend in ISR is to merge ISR and strike capabilities into the same platform. Future ISR syste... more The trend in ISR is to merge ISR and strike capabilities into the same platform. Future ISR systems will be smaller, lighter, unmanned, and armed with long-range-precision-guided munitions. (Turkish Defense Industries SSB photo) In the fall of 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War provided a glimpse of what the next generation of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) will become: precision-guided munitions with active sensors. In the past, ISR platforms primarily found targets for other systems to destroy. The recent fighting in the Caucasus, which involved two, near-equal medium powers, has shown how ISR and Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs) are now blending to become one. During this conflict, the Azerbaijani forces used strike systems, Unmanned Air Combat Vehicles (UCAVs) and Loitering Munitions (LMs) for ISR. These systems had high-end, active sensors that generated real-time intelligence during combat. In addition, they provided accurate, real-time, battle damage assessment. In the next decade, strike systems will become smaller, less expensive, and better networked. The lessons learned for next generation ISR from this conflict is dramatic, and was a key factor in Azerbaijan's decisive victory. Some of the primary systems used by Azerbaijan, principally the TB2 UCAV and the HAROP LM, provide an important insight into the future of ISR systems.
ESD, 2021
Warfare is changing, and training is not keeping pace. Recent combat actions in Libya, Syria, and... more Warfare is changing, and training is not keeping pace. Recent combat actions in Libya, Syria, and especially in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, demonstrated the value of unmanned systems in conducting precision strikes. According to confirmed drone video footage, during the recent 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan destroyed at least 1,021 Armenian military systems 1
European Security and Defense, 2021
The lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War represent a significant change in the methods of w... more The lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War represent a significant change in the methods of war. This war has significance similar to the impact of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The lessons of the 1973 War influenced the development of tactics and weaponry during the Cold War and beyond. For example, the US military conducted a thorough study of the Yom Kippur War, derived a new doctrine called AirLand Battle, and developed new systems, the “Big 5” — the M1 Main Battle Tank, Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Apache Helicopter, Black Hawk Helicopter, and Patriot Air Defense System. These warfighting platforms, although significantly upgraded, remain the mainstay of the US Army’s striking power today. The methods of war, however, are changing and the recent fighting in the Caucasus provides insights for wars to come. As the first war won primarily with unmanned systems, we neglect the study of the Second Nagorno- Karabakh War at our own peril.
European Security and Defense, 2021
On September 27, 2020, a short and decisive war in the Caucasus erupted that provides a glimpse o... more On September 27, 2020, a short and decisive war in the Caucasus erupted that provides a glimpse of wars to come. Azerbaijan and Armenia clashed in a conflict in rough, mountainous terrain that lasted 44 days and ended in Armenia’s surrender and Azerbaijan’s triumph. The battlespace was the area of Nagorno-Karabakh, the contested region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijanis executed their version of cross-domain maneuver to win a rapid and decisive victory against a defending and determined adversary. To achieve this, the Azerbaijanis invested a reported $24B+ to upgrade their forces, purchasing the latest Turkish and Israeli Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Loitering Munitions (LMs). The effective use by Azerbaijan of these weapons in the war was stunning. The unrelenting tempo, precision, and lethality of the Azerbaijani aerial top-attacks devastated and demoralized the Armenians and played a definitive role in Azerbaijan’s victory. These systems did not win the war by themselves, and UAVs have been over-hyped in many press accounts of the war, but the impact of the high-definition full-motion video (FMV) provided by top-attack systems categorized this conflict as “the war of the drones.” The Azerbaijanis used the secure FMV capabilities of their systems to enhance sensor-shooter integration, to obtain battle damage assessment, and for propaganda to win the information war. In these aspects, especially the use of secure tactical FMV video and data links, the conflict is a harbinger for wars to come.
Military Technology , 2016
What will war look like 2026? If the trends of the three areas above grow to their possible poten... more What will war look like 2026? If the trends of the three areas above grow to their possible potential, high-tech war in 2026 might look like this: First the battlespace is littered with tiny sensors, some the size
of hail, some even smaller. The decisive point is then hammered by precision weaponry designed to devastate the defender no matter how resilient their fortifications. These precision guided munitions will also freeze movement across the battlespace, fixing the opponent, so that anything that moves in the open can be targeted and anything that is targeted can be destroyed. Next, another wave of MAVs (Micro Air Vehicles) fall from the sky to fly onto the battlespace, into buildings, bunkers and caves and relentlessly find their way to their targets. Once these identify their targets, a mobile ground force will move across the terrain to finish the action in close combat. This maneuver force could be a mixed human and robotic force, with robots leading the way. Even in 2026, precision fires will only be half of the equation. Dominant maneuver will still be required to win the fight and occupy ground. Some believe this vision is not only possible, but unstoppable. One thing for certain, the first to leverage these disruptive trends, and put the pieces together into a cohesive military force and doctrine, will have a tremendous advantage.
Military Technology , 2011
To modernize the wisdom of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, “There is no democrac... more To modernize the wisdom of Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese philosopher of war, “There is no democracy having benefited from prolonged warfare.” These words ring true today and the application of indecisive military force in the internal rebellions of the Arab Spring will surely have second- and third-order effects that we do not fully appreciate. It is time to reevaluate our military concepts and create military solutions that provide rapid decisions suitable for our Republic. Nation building and counterinsurgency operations play to our enemy’s strengths, weaken our military and deplete our treasure. We should rediscover the concept of the strategic raid, where air, land and sea forces work together to go in, break things and kill enemies, to achieve a quick decision on the ground and then withdraw. We must be willing to risk casualties on the ground and in the air in pursuit of vital national interests, or we should not commit military force. The alternative, unfortunately, is to wage wars without end. With the United States already committed to wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and in fighting terrorism around the world—and $14 trillion in debt—this is something that we can ill- afford.
Militayr Technology , 2019
The Middle East has been described as the crucible of conflict and the graveyard of empires. It i... more The Middle East has been described as the crucible of conflict and the graveyard of empires. It is too important to ignore and the lessons from the last two decades of combat hold key insights that must not be ignored. The US Army has just published a two volume study on the lessons from the fighting in Iraq. A similar study concerning Afghanistan is needed. On the Russian side, General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, believes that the Syrian conflict represents “contours of future war” and that Russia is learning priceless lessons on how to conduct operations and how to use the latest military technologies — including robotic systems, drones, sensors, long-range precision fires, C4ISR, and AI. Just as the Spanish Civil War was the incubator for WWII, the Middle East is a proving ground for future conflict. These lessons promise to shape the form of wars to come.