John Giles - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by John Giles
This paper investigates the impact of land tenure insecurity on the migration decisions of China'... more This paper investigates the impact of land tenure insecurity on the migration decisions of China's rural residents. A simple model first frames the relationship among these variables and the probability that a reallocation of land will occur in the following year. After first demonstrating that a village leader's support for administrative land reallocation carries with it the risk of losing a future election, the paper exploits election-timing and village heterogeneity in lineage group composition and demographic change to identify the effect of land security. In response to an expected land reallocation in the following year, the probability that a rural resident migrates out of the county declines by 2.8 percentage points, which accounts for 17.5 percent of the annual share of village residents, aged 16 to 50, who worked as migrants during the period. This finding underscores the potential importance of secure property rights for facilitating labor market integration and the movement of labor out of agriculture.
bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su r... more bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Produced by the Research Support Team
In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of... more In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. Change in the size of the village migrant network is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national ID card distribution and interactions of timing with the variance of local rainfall, which affects rate of migrant network formation. We show that timing of ID card distribution is unrelated to local rainfall shocks affecting demand for migration, and not related to proxies reflecting time-varying changes in village policy or administrative capacity. We find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita also increases with out-migration, and increases more for poorer households. We also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investments in producti...
Successful efforts to limit fertility have contributed to the dramatic aging of China’s popula-ti... more Successful efforts to limit fertility have contributed to the dramatic aging of China’s popula-tion. Birth rates first started to fall with the "later, longer, fewer " campaign of the 1970s and then this decline became more dramatic with full implementation of the "one-child policy" after 1979. The results of fertility control policy are evident in Figure S.1. By 2000, China’s population pyramid was nearly diamond shaped, and in the next few decades it may well resemble an inverted pyramid. Decline in family size may ultimately lead to a breakdown of the traditional support system, but conclusions from research spanning literatures in demography and economics are not in agreement on this point. Zimmer and Kwong (2003) show that more children increase the likelihood that the elderly will receive support, but present simulation results that suggest that declines in fertility alone will not lead to collapse of family-based support for the elderly.1 Other research ha...
We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption and saving decisions of rural agri... more We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption and saving decisions of rural agricultural households. We first present a constant relative risk aversion model of household consumption decisions in which consumption risk is explicitly related to yield risk. Next we discuss ways of using rainfall variance as a proxy for yield risk, and consider the possibility of using a GARCH model to estimate conditional rainfall variance. Finally, we test the empirical model using household panel data from rural China and find evidence of precautionary motives behind consumption and saving decisions.
Options for Aged Care in China: Building an Efficient and Sustainable Aged Care System, 2018
A large body of literature suggests that general skills are rewarded in labor markets with higher... more A large body of literature suggests that general skills are rewarded in labor markets with higher education leading to better jobs and higher earnings (Bigsten et al., 2000; Glick and Sahn, 1997). Consistent with an inefficient educational system, a growing body of literature suggests that returns to education increase with the level of education in developing economies (Duraisamy, 2002; Söderbom et al., 2006; Kahyarara and Teal, 2008). A convex earnings function, which implies lowest returns for individuals with least education, gives incentives for the adolescents with no or low education to look for alternative ways to acquire skills that are valued on the labor market. The evidence in developing economies suggests positive returns to vocational training on earnings (Moenjak and Worswick, 2003; Kahyarara and Teal, 2008). In Senegal, this pathway remains underdeveloped because secondary schools dedicated to vocational training are few and because the kind of training is only acces...
Feminist Economics, 2018
Using the baseline wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), collected... more Using the baseline wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), collected from 2011 to 2012, this study finds that among those age 60 and above, women are 7.6 percent more likely than men to have care needs, women are 29.3 percent more likely than men to have unmet needs, and most of the gender gap in unmet needs is explained by the existence and health status of a spouse. Further analysis reveals a sharp gender division in patterns of family care in China. While men are more likely to receive care from their wives, women are primarily cared for by their children. Marital status and the health of the spouses also matters for provision of care, with infirm women who have healthy husbands less likely to receive care than infirm men with healthy wives. The findings have important implications for designing gender-sensitive policies in eldercare.
Using data from a national survey of Chinese manufacturing firms conducted in 2009, we analyze th... more Using data from a national survey of Chinese manufacturing firms conducted in 2009, we analyze the impact of implementation of China's 2008 Labor Contract Law on the employment of production workers. We find that cities with lax prior enforcement of labor regulations experienced a greater increase in enforcement after 2008 and slower employment growth, and that this finding is robust to inclusion of a rich set of city-level controls and the use of alternative measures of enforcement effort. Although firms affected by the global economic crisis did not report less strict enforcement of the new Law, there is evidence that their employment adjustment was less sensitive to enforcement of labor regulations than firms not affected by the crisis.
Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial incr... more Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This article addresses the question of how participation is affected by elderly parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor health of an elderly parent has
The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China, 2012
The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China, 2012
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
In its gradual approach to economic transition, China deferred the difficult process of restructu... more In its gradual approach to economic transition, China deferred the difficult process of restructuring state owned enterprises (SOEs) until the mid-1990s. When restructuring of large scale SOEs accelerated after 1997, China witnessed sharp declines in the employment of urban residents. While some dislocated state sector workers made a transition to work in the non-state sector, large shares of laid off workers spent long periods unemployed or out of the labor force. Much of the transition out of the state sector occurred through early retirement and exit from the labor force of older workers. While earlier work suggested that the sharp decrease in labor force participation of older women is driven by reappearance of discrimination in the labor market, analysis of reemployment decisions suggests that exit from the labor force reflects a choice. Women exited the labor force in great numbers after 1996, but women with adult children of college age are 60 percent more likely than other women to be re-employed within a year. We also find weak evidence that women who provide care for elderly family members are less likely to be employed. An increase in the labor supply of older women after 2004, however, suggests that the exit of older women from the labor force between 1996 and 2002 was driven primarily by generous early retirement pensions offered during the process of restructuring.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2012
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2008
In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of... more In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. Change in the size of the village migrant network is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national ID card distribution and interactions of timing with the variance of local rainfall, which affects rate of migrant network formation. We show that timing of ID card distribution is unrelated to local rainfall shocks affecting demand for migration, and not related to proxies reflecting time-varying changes in village policy or administrative capacity. We find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita also increases with out-migration, and increases more for poorer households. We also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investments in productive assets related to agricultural production, land per capita under cultivation and investments in durables and housing, and these investment effects of migration are stronger for poorer households within villages.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2008
In this paper, we investigate how reductions of barriers to migration affect the decision of midd... more In this paper, we investigate how reductions of barriers to migration affect the decision of middle school graduates to attend high school in rural China. Change in the cost of migration is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national identity card distribution, which make it easier for rural migrants to register as temporary residents in urban destinations. We make use of a large panel household and village data set supplemented by an original follow-up survey, and find a robust negative relationship between migrant opportunity and high school enrollment. This effect is consistent with our finding of low returns to high school education among migrants from surveyed villages.
This paper investigates the impact of land tenure insecurity on the migration decisions of China'... more This paper investigates the impact of land tenure insecurity on the migration decisions of China's rural residents. A simple model first frames the relationship among these variables and the probability that a reallocation of land will occur in the following year. After first demonstrating that a village leader's support for administrative land reallocation carries with it the risk of losing a future election, the paper exploits election-timing and village heterogeneity in lineage group composition and demographic change to identify the effect of land security. In response to an expected land reallocation in the following year, the probability that a rural resident migrates out of the county declines by 2.8 percentage points, which accounts for 17.5 percent of the annual share of village residents, aged 16 to 50, who worked as migrants during the period. This finding underscores the potential importance of secure property rights for facilitating labor market integration and the movement of labor out of agriculture.
bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su r... more bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Produced by the Research Support Team
In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of... more In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. Change in the size of the village migrant network is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national ID card distribution and interactions of timing with the variance of local rainfall, which affects rate of migrant network formation. We show that timing of ID card distribution is unrelated to local rainfall shocks affecting demand for migration, and not related to proxies reflecting time-varying changes in village policy or administrative capacity. We find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita also increases with out-migration, and increases more for poorer households. We also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investments in producti...
Successful efforts to limit fertility have contributed to the dramatic aging of China’s popula-ti... more Successful efforts to limit fertility have contributed to the dramatic aging of China’s popula-tion. Birth rates first started to fall with the "later, longer, fewer " campaign of the 1970s and then this decline became more dramatic with full implementation of the "one-child policy" after 1979. The results of fertility control policy are evident in Figure S.1. By 2000, China’s population pyramid was nearly diamond shaped, and in the next few decades it may well resemble an inverted pyramid. Decline in family size may ultimately lead to a breakdown of the traditional support system, but conclusions from research spanning literatures in demography and economics are not in agreement on this point. Zimmer and Kwong (2003) show that more children increase the likelihood that the elderly will receive support, but present simulation results that suggest that declines in fertility alone will not lead to collapse of family-based support for the elderly.1 Other research ha...
We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption and saving decisions of rural agri... more We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption and saving decisions of rural agricultural households. We first present a constant relative risk aversion model of household consumption decisions in which consumption risk is explicitly related to yield risk. Next we discuss ways of using rainfall variance as a proxy for yield risk, and consider the possibility of using a GARCH model to estimate conditional rainfall variance. Finally, we test the empirical model using household panel data from rural China and find evidence of precautionary motives behind consumption and saving decisions.
Options for Aged Care in China: Building an Efficient and Sustainable Aged Care System, 2018
A large body of literature suggests that general skills are rewarded in labor markets with higher... more A large body of literature suggests that general skills are rewarded in labor markets with higher education leading to better jobs and higher earnings (Bigsten et al., 2000; Glick and Sahn, 1997). Consistent with an inefficient educational system, a growing body of literature suggests that returns to education increase with the level of education in developing economies (Duraisamy, 2002; Söderbom et al., 2006; Kahyarara and Teal, 2008). A convex earnings function, which implies lowest returns for individuals with least education, gives incentives for the adolescents with no or low education to look for alternative ways to acquire skills that are valued on the labor market. The evidence in developing economies suggests positive returns to vocational training on earnings (Moenjak and Worswick, 2003; Kahyarara and Teal, 2008). In Senegal, this pathway remains underdeveloped because secondary schools dedicated to vocational training are few and because the kind of training is only acces...
Feminist Economics, 2018
Using the baseline wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), collected... more Using the baseline wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), collected from 2011 to 2012, this study finds that among those age 60 and above, women are 7.6 percent more likely than men to have care needs, women are 29.3 percent more likely than men to have unmet needs, and most of the gender gap in unmet needs is explained by the existence and health status of a spouse. Further analysis reveals a sharp gender division in patterns of family care in China. While men are more likely to receive care from their wives, women are primarily cared for by their children. Marital status and the health of the spouses also matters for provision of care, with infirm women who have healthy husbands less likely to receive care than infirm men with healthy wives. The findings have important implications for designing gender-sensitive policies in eldercare.
Using data from a national survey of Chinese manufacturing firms conducted in 2009, we analyze th... more Using data from a national survey of Chinese manufacturing firms conducted in 2009, we analyze the impact of implementation of China's 2008 Labor Contract Law on the employment of production workers. We find that cities with lax prior enforcement of labor regulations experienced a greater increase in enforcement after 2008 and slower employment growth, and that this finding is robust to inclusion of a rich set of city-level controls and the use of alternative measures of enforcement effort. Although firms affected by the global economic crisis did not report less strict enforcement of the new Law, there is evidence that their employment adjustment was less sensitive to enforcement of labor regulations than firms not affected by the crisis.
Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial incr... more Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This article addresses the question of how participation is affected by elderly parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor health of an elderly parent has
The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China, 2012
The Elderly and Old Age Support in Rural China, 2012
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
In its gradual approach to economic transition, China deferred the difficult process of restructu... more In its gradual approach to economic transition, China deferred the difficult process of restructuring state owned enterprises (SOEs) until the mid-1990s. When restructuring of large scale SOEs accelerated after 1997, China witnessed sharp declines in the employment of urban residents. While some dislocated state sector workers made a transition to work in the non-state sector, large shares of laid off workers spent long periods unemployed or out of the labor force. Much of the transition out of the state sector occurred through early retirement and exit from the labor force of older workers. While earlier work suggested that the sharp decrease in labor force participation of older women is driven by reappearance of discrimination in the labor market, analysis of reemployment decisions suggests that exit from the labor force reflects a choice. Women exited the labor force in great numbers after 1996, but women with adult children of college age are 60 percent more likely than other women to be re-employed within a year. We also find weak evidence that women who provide care for elderly family members are less likely to be employed. An increase in the labor supply of older women after 2004, however, suggests that the exit of older women from the labor force between 1996 and 2002 was driven primarily by generous early retirement pensions offered during the process of restructuring.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2012
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2008
In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of... more In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. Change in the size of the village migrant network is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national ID card distribution and interactions of timing with the variance of local rainfall, which affects rate of migrant network formation. We show that timing of ID card distribution is unrelated to local rainfall shocks affecting demand for migration, and not related to proxies reflecting time-varying changes in village policy or administrative capacity. We find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita also increases with out-migration, and increases more for poorer households. We also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investments in productive assets related to agricultural production, land per capita under cultivation and investments in durables and housing, and these investment effects of migration are stronger for poorer households within villages.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2008
In this paper, we investigate how reductions of barriers to migration affect the decision of midd... more In this paper, we investigate how reductions of barriers to migration affect the decision of middle school graduates to attend high school in rural China. Change in the cost of migration is identified using exogenous variation across counties in the timing of national identity card distribution, which make it easier for rural migrants to register as temporary residents in urban destinations. We make use of a large panel household and village data set supplemented by an original follow-up survey, and find a robust negative relationship between migrant opportunity and high school enrollment. This effect is consistent with our finding of low returns to high school education among migrants from surveyed villages.