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Papers by John O'Loughlin

Research paper thumbnail of The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1998

We examine the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in t... more We examine the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world system since 1946. We find strong and consistent evidence of temporal clustering of democratic and autocratic trends, as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of democratization. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in changes in authority structures. Our work reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, demonstrating how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world's regions. We conclude that further analysis of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy, as well as reversals, should start from a "domain-specific" position that dis-aggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.

Research paper thumbnail of The Localized Geographies of Violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999–2007

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2011

The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a cease... more The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a ceasefire after almost ten years, though the level of violence has declined from the peaks of the war's first two years. Initially framed by both sides as a war between separatists versus the federal center, the situation is now complicated by the installation of a Moscow ally into power in Chechnya and the splintering of the opposition into groups with diverse aims and theaters of operation. The main rebel movement has declared the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in all the Muslim republics of the North Caucasus as its ultimate goal. Fears of regional destabilization of the entire North Caucasus of Russia are propelled by reports of increased militant activism in republics adjoining Chechnya due to possible contagion effects of violence on these poor areas. Temporal and spatial descriptive statistics of a large database of 14,177 violent events, geocoded by precise location, from August 1999 to August 2007 provide evidence of the conflict's diffusion into the republics bordering Chechnya. "Hot spots" of violence are identified using Kulldorf's SatScan statistics. A geographically-weighted regression predictive model of violence indicates that locations in Chechnya and forested areas have more violence, while areas with high Russian populations and communities geographically removed from the main federal highway through the region see less violence.

Research paper thumbnail of Ethnic competition, radical Islam, and challenges to stability in the Republic of Dagestan

Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 2010

Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages, the repub... more Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages, the republic’s ethnic diversity and the challenge from radical Islamist groups. Using results from a December 2005 survey, and focusing on Dagestan’s six main ethnic groups, this paper investigates attitudes towards the dual topics of the politicization of ethnicity and the relationship between terrorism and Islamism. We find that Dagestanis maintain layered conceptions of identity, and do not attribute violence predominantly to radical Islam in the republic or the wider North Caucasus. Scholars should be aware of Rogers Brubaker’s concept of groupism in analyzing not just ethnic groups, but religious movements as well.

Research paper thumbnail of Democratic Values in a Globalizing World: A Multilevel Analysis of Geographic Contexts

Research paper thumbnail of The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1998

This article concerns the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic dif... more This article concerns the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world system since 1946. We show strong and consistent evidence of temporal clustering of democratic and autocratic trends as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of democratization. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in changes in authority structures. Our work reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, demonstrating how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world's regions. We conclude that further analysis of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy, as well as reversals, should start from a "domain-specific" position that disaggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.

Yearbook "Scientific works of DGS" by John O'Loughlin

Research paper thumbnail of Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society. Vol. 40. Mahachkala, 2012. 134 p.

"Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society" are devoted to the most urgent geographical p... more "Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society" are devoted to the most urgent geographical problems of region. In the annuals the constant headings are allocated: common problems, regional ecology, social geography, economic geography, political geography, physical geography, biogeography, historical geography, cultural geography, medical geography, linguistic geography, geoinformation systems, discussions, short reports, bibliography, chronicle, anniversaries and memorials.

Research paper thumbnail of The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1998

We examine the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in t... more We examine the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world system since 1946. We find strong and consistent evidence of temporal clustering of democratic and autocratic trends, as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of democratization. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in changes in authority structures. Our work reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, demonstrating how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world's regions. We conclude that further analysis of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy, as well as reversals, should start from a "domain-specific" position that dis-aggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.

Research paper thumbnail of The Localized Geographies of Violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999–2007

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2011

The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a cease... more The second Chechen war, starting in the North Caucasus in August 1999, shows few signs of a ceasefire after almost ten years, though the level of violence has declined from the peaks of the war's first two years. Initially framed by both sides as a war between separatists versus the federal center, the situation is now complicated by the installation of a Moscow ally into power in Chechnya and the splintering of the opposition into groups with diverse aims and theaters of operation. The main rebel movement has declared the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in all the Muslim republics of the North Caucasus as its ultimate goal. Fears of regional destabilization of the entire North Caucasus of Russia are propelled by reports of increased militant activism in republics adjoining Chechnya due to possible contagion effects of violence on these poor areas. Temporal and spatial descriptive statistics of a large database of 14,177 violent events, geocoded by precise location, from August 1999 to August 2007 provide evidence of the conflict's diffusion into the republics bordering Chechnya. "Hot spots" of violence are identified using Kulldorf's SatScan statistics. A geographically-weighted regression predictive model of violence indicates that locations in Chechnya and forested areas have more violence, while areas with high Russian populations and communities geographically removed from the main federal highway through the region see less violence.

Research paper thumbnail of Ethnic competition, radical Islam, and challenges to stability in the Republic of Dagestan

Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 2010

Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages, the repub... more Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages, the republic’s ethnic diversity and the challenge from radical Islamist groups. Using results from a December 2005 survey, and focusing on Dagestan’s six main ethnic groups, this paper investigates attitudes towards the dual topics of the politicization of ethnicity and the relationship between terrorism and Islamism. We find that Dagestanis maintain layered conceptions of identity, and do not attribute violence predominantly to radical Islam in the republic or the wider North Caucasus. Scholars should be aware of Rogers Brubaker’s concept of groupism in analyzing not just ethnic groups, but religious movements as well.

Research paper thumbnail of Democratic Values in a Globalizing World: A Multilevel Analysis of Geographic Contexts

Research paper thumbnail of The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994

Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1998

This article concerns the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic dif... more This article concerns the relationship between the temporal and spatial aspects of democratic diffusion in the world system since 1946. We show strong and consistent evidence of temporal clustering of democratic and autocratic trends as well as strong spatial association (or autocorrelation) of democratization. The analysis uses an exploratory data approach in a longitudinal framework to understand global and regional trends in changes in authority structures. Our work reveals discrete changes in regimes that run counter to the dominant aggregate trends of democratic waves or sequences, demonstrating how the ebb and flow of democracy varies among the world's regions. We conclude that further analysis of the process of regime change from autocracy to democracy, as well as reversals, should start from a "domain-specific" position that disaggregates the globe into its regional mosaics.

Research paper thumbnail of Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society. Vol. 40. Mahachkala, 2012. 134 p.

"Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society" are devoted to the most urgent geographical p... more "Scientific Works of Dagestan Geographical Society" are devoted to the most urgent geographical problems of region. In the annuals the constant headings are allocated: common problems, regional ecology, social geography, economic geography, political geography, physical geography, biogeography, historical geography, cultural geography, medical geography, linguistic geography, geoinformation systems, discussions, short reports, bibliography, chronicle, anniversaries and memorials.