Jolle Demmers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Jolle Demmers
EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), May 27, 2021
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are curren... more Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2022
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are curren... more Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research
Routledge eBooks, Aug 10, 2016
Diaspora organisations are significant, and increasingly politicized players in today’s global wo... more Diaspora organisations are significant, and increasingly politicized players in today’s global world. In order to understand diaspora support for homeland conflicts we have to study the interplay of distinct processes tied to both homeland and host country contexts. The new nature of war and concomitant centrality of identity groups has brought diasporas to the fore as important sources of outside support for parties in conflict. However, diaspora activism should not be understood as a mere response to the ‘Homeland Calling’. Rather, the host country context can be seen as a distinct source of diaspora mobilization and, as this article shows, turns out to play a highly complex and ambiguous role in diaspora strategies of identification and political action.
... XVI MIRACULOUS METAMORPHOSES PR Radical Party (Chile) PRD Party of the Democratic Revolution ... more ... XVI MIRACULOUS METAMORPHOSES PR Radical Party (Chile) PRD Party of the Democratic Revolution (Mexico) PRI Institutional Revolutionary Party (Mexico) PRONASOL National SolidarityProgramme (Mexico) PRTC Central American Revolutionary Workers' Party PSCh ...
Introduction: Conflict Analysis in Context 1. Identity, Boundaries and Violence 2. On Love and Ha... more Introduction: Conflict Analysis in Context 1. Identity, Boundaries and Violence 2. On Love and Hate: Social Identity Approaches to Inter-Group Violence 3. Violence and Structures 4. Mobilization for Collective Action: Multi-Causal Approaches 5. Rational Choice Theory: The Costs and Benefits of War 6. Telling Each Other Apart: A Discursive Approach to Violent Conflict Conclusions
the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the Bosnian war and established the framework of the new Bosnian... more the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the Bosnian war and established the framework of the new Bosnian state. This involved several levels of representative government, including central state institutions, the two entity-level bodies, the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska, district cantons within the Federation and municipal bodies across Bosnia. As well as elected bodies, Dayton established a framework of international political regulation to ensure that the principles of good governance were enforced in the divided state. Although initially designed to be temporary, in 1997 international regulation was extended on an indefinite basis. The key international body responsible for overseeing the Dayton framework is the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), an ad hoc institution established by the fifty-five governments and international organisations which sponsor and direct the Dayton process. The policies of the PIC are implemented in Bosnia by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which can impose legislation and dismiss elected politicians (Chandler 2000). Over the last seven years the mandate of the OHR has expanded and assumed a key role in maintaining the legislative and institutional framework of the state. At its Brussels meeting in May 2000 the PIC produced a programme for the next phase of the peace process in Bosnia, marking a significant shift in priorities, focusing on strengthening the governance capacities of the legal and administrative institutions of the Bosnian state. 1 To enable Bosnia to meet the EU entry requirement of having an integral and independent state, Bosnian representatives were to begin to assume ownership of the day-today running of the state from international community officials. Lord Paddy Ashdown, who assumed the post of High Representative in May 2002, and his predecessor, Wolfgang Petritsch, have both regularly stressed the key importance of Bosnian ownership of the political process. 2 Heads of other international institutions involved in the democratisation process, such as the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have argued that now is the time for 'the elected officials to take ownership of the peace process' and for Bosnian citizens to 'take ownership of their own future'. 3 The Office of the High Representative has highlighted political corruption as one of the most important areas in which the external provision and enforcement of good governance regulation is required to help Bosnia meet EU requirements (OHR 1999:5). In 1999 and 2000, high-profile statements from the US State Department asserted that 'Good governance' can make bad government 141
Routledge, Aug 2, 2004
More than ten years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia is still in search of her p... more More than ten years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia is still in search of her political and cultural identities, and is still in the process of rediscovering her role in the world. 1 The post-Soviet transition she has endured was complicated by the fact that Russia went through a 'double disappointment'-in both socialism and liberalism. Indeed, on the one hand, most Russians comprehend (willingly or reluctantly) that there is no way to make a comeback to the communist past. Yet on the other hand, it is believed that 'the liberal project in contemporary Russia has no prospects'. 2 Some Russian theorists call Russian reforms of the 1990s 'pseudo-liberal experimenting', making the strong point that it was criminal groups who mainly managed to take advantage of it. The belief that market forces will set up themselves the most effective forms of economic activities failed to become widely accepted in Russian intellectual circles. 3 Yet Russia's debate on post-Soviet transition was not exclusively focused on the application of liberal principles for the sake of the country's modernisation. Two simultaneous processes-the unfolding of a regionalist drive and creating the basis for federalism, on the one hand, and the country's inclusion into the global milieu, on the other-all throughout the 1990s were key factors shaping Russia's choices. Studying Russia's case is politically important and academically relevant since the country's transformation keeps open multiple options. In the sphere of sub-national politics, they range from further fragmentation (for example, on the basis of seven federal districts created by president Putin in 2000) to re-centralisation under the ideological umbrella of 'strengthening the vertical of power'. In global affairs, the choices might switch from isolationism, as being advocated by 'national patriots', to the espousal of post-modernist versions of the 'borderless world' and the 'end of geography'. The future landmarks are therefore still unclear and open to different interpretations. This chapter sets out to analyse the global-local nexus in Russia as seen from the perspective of the evolution of (neo)liberal ideology. My initial assumption is that there is a clear correlation and even conflation between the concepts of globalisation and regionalisation. Indeed, analysing Russian domestic political, economic and social trends, one may easily come to the conclusion that almost all of them could be framed by and understood with the concepts traditionally applicable to the phenomenon of globalisation: the diminishing role of administrative borders (between the constituent parts of the federation); the growing mobility of financial capital that tends to spill over from one territory to another, thus challenging the local authorities; the appearance of networks of
Theories of Violent Conflict, 2016
Conflict and depolitisation in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa, 2004
The invitation to give a presentation at the Young Pugwash (ISYP) workshop on New Challenges to H... more The invitation to give a presentation at the Young Pugwash (ISYP) workshop on New Challenges to Human Security in Wageningen, the Netherlands and contribute this comment came at the right time. With the academic year drawing to a close, and the number of MA theses of a new generation of conflict researchers piling up on my desk, the ISYP request allowed me to pause for a moment and look critically at my field of study. ‘What are the lacunas in conflict research?’ the ISYP organisation wanted to know. ‘Where do our analyses or approaches fail? And: do we ask the right questions?’ The art of formulating questions lies at the heart of academic thinking and, interestingly, prompting and important questions such as these are often asked by people outside of ones own area of expertise. In this brief article I will focus on the first two questions and discuss a number of lacunas, mantras and pitfalls in the new field of study that Conflict Studies is by means of six brief statements and re...
EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), May 27, 2021
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are curren... more Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, 2022
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are curren... more Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research
Routledge eBooks, Aug 10, 2016
Diaspora organisations are significant, and increasingly politicized players in today’s global wo... more Diaspora organisations are significant, and increasingly politicized players in today’s global world. In order to understand diaspora support for homeland conflicts we have to study the interplay of distinct processes tied to both homeland and host country contexts. The new nature of war and concomitant centrality of identity groups has brought diasporas to the fore as important sources of outside support for parties in conflict. However, diaspora activism should not be understood as a mere response to the ‘Homeland Calling’. Rather, the host country context can be seen as a distinct source of diaspora mobilization and, as this article shows, turns out to play a highly complex and ambiguous role in diaspora strategies of identification and political action.
... XVI MIRACULOUS METAMORPHOSES PR Radical Party (Chile) PRD Party of the Democratic Revolution ... more ... XVI MIRACULOUS METAMORPHOSES PR Radical Party (Chile) PRD Party of the Democratic Revolution (Mexico) PRI Institutional Revolutionary Party (Mexico) PRONASOL National SolidarityProgramme (Mexico) PRTC Central American Revolutionary Workers' Party PSCh ...
Introduction: Conflict Analysis in Context 1. Identity, Boundaries and Violence 2. On Love and Ha... more Introduction: Conflict Analysis in Context 1. Identity, Boundaries and Violence 2. On Love and Hate: Social Identity Approaches to Inter-Group Violence 3. Violence and Structures 4. Mobilization for Collective Action: Multi-Causal Approaches 5. Rational Choice Theory: The Costs and Benefits of War 6. Telling Each Other Apart: A Discursive Approach to Violent Conflict Conclusions
the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the Bosnian war and established the framework of the new Bosnian... more the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the Bosnian war and established the framework of the new Bosnian state. This involved several levels of representative government, including central state institutions, the two entity-level bodies, the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska, district cantons within the Federation and municipal bodies across Bosnia. As well as elected bodies, Dayton established a framework of international political regulation to ensure that the principles of good governance were enforced in the divided state. Although initially designed to be temporary, in 1997 international regulation was extended on an indefinite basis. The key international body responsible for overseeing the Dayton framework is the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), an ad hoc institution established by the fifty-five governments and international organisations which sponsor and direct the Dayton process. The policies of the PIC are implemented in Bosnia by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which can impose legislation and dismiss elected politicians (Chandler 2000). Over the last seven years the mandate of the OHR has expanded and assumed a key role in maintaining the legislative and institutional framework of the state. At its Brussels meeting in May 2000 the PIC produced a programme for the next phase of the peace process in Bosnia, marking a significant shift in priorities, focusing on strengthening the governance capacities of the legal and administrative institutions of the Bosnian state. 1 To enable Bosnia to meet the EU entry requirement of having an integral and independent state, Bosnian representatives were to begin to assume ownership of the day-today running of the state from international community officials. Lord Paddy Ashdown, who assumed the post of High Representative in May 2002, and his predecessor, Wolfgang Petritsch, have both regularly stressed the key importance of Bosnian ownership of the political process. 2 Heads of other international institutions involved in the democratisation process, such as the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have argued that now is the time for 'the elected officials to take ownership of the peace process' and for Bosnian citizens to 'take ownership of their own future'. 3 The Office of the High Representative has highlighted political corruption as one of the most important areas in which the external provision and enforcement of good governance regulation is required to help Bosnia meet EU requirements (OHR 1999:5). In 1999 and 2000, high-profile statements from the US State Department asserted that 'Good governance' can make bad government 141
Routledge, Aug 2, 2004
More than ten years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia is still in search of her p... more More than ten years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia is still in search of her political and cultural identities, and is still in the process of rediscovering her role in the world. 1 The post-Soviet transition she has endured was complicated by the fact that Russia went through a 'double disappointment'-in both socialism and liberalism. Indeed, on the one hand, most Russians comprehend (willingly or reluctantly) that there is no way to make a comeback to the communist past. Yet on the other hand, it is believed that 'the liberal project in contemporary Russia has no prospects'. 2 Some Russian theorists call Russian reforms of the 1990s 'pseudo-liberal experimenting', making the strong point that it was criminal groups who mainly managed to take advantage of it. The belief that market forces will set up themselves the most effective forms of economic activities failed to become widely accepted in Russian intellectual circles. 3 Yet Russia's debate on post-Soviet transition was not exclusively focused on the application of liberal principles for the sake of the country's modernisation. Two simultaneous processes-the unfolding of a regionalist drive and creating the basis for federalism, on the one hand, and the country's inclusion into the global milieu, on the other-all throughout the 1990s were key factors shaping Russia's choices. Studying Russia's case is politically important and academically relevant since the country's transformation keeps open multiple options. In the sphere of sub-national politics, they range from further fragmentation (for example, on the basis of seven federal districts created by president Putin in 2000) to re-centralisation under the ideological umbrella of 'strengthening the vertical of power'. In global affairs, the choices might switch from isolationism, as being advocated by 'national patriots', to the espousal of post-modernist versions of the 'borderless world' and the 'end of geography'. The future landmarks are therefore still unclear and open to different interpretations. This chapter sets out to analyse the global-local nexus in Russia as seen from the perspective of the evolution of (neo)liberal ideology. My initial assumption is that there is a clear correlation and even conflation between the concepts of globalisation and regionalisation. Indeed, analysing Russian domestic political, economic and social trends, one may easily come to the conclusion that almost all of them could be framed by and understood with the concepts traditionally applicable to the phenomenon of globalisation: the diminishing role of administrative borders (between the constituent parts of the federation); the growing mobility of financial capital that tends to spill over from one territory to another, thus challenging the local authorities; the appearance of networks of
Theories of Violent Conflict, 2016
Conflict and depolitisation in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa, 2004
The invitation to give a presentation at the Young Pugwash (ISYP) workshop on New Challenges to H... more The invitation to give a presentation at the Young Pugwash (ISYP) workshop on New Challenges to Human Security in Wageningen, the Netherlands and contribute this comment came at the right time. With the academic year drawing to a close, and the number of MA theses of a new generation of conflict researchers piling up on my desk, the ISYP request allowed me to pause for a moment and look critically at my field of study. ‘What are the lacunas in conflict research?’ the ISYP organisation wanted to know. ‘Where do our analyses or approaches fail? And: do we ask the right questions?’ The art of formulating questions lies at the heart of academic thinking and, interestingly, prompting and important questions such as these are often asked by people outside of ones own area of expertise. In this brief article I will focus on the first two questions and discuss a number of lacunas, mantras and pitfalls in the new field of study that Conflict Studies is by means of six brief statements and re...