Jon Pedersen - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Other publications by Jon Pedersen

Rapport Fafo 2015:55. , 2015

Ce rapport est une analyse des principaux résultats d’une recherche sur les enfants travailleurs ... more Ce rapport est une analyse des principaux résultats d’une recherche sur les enfants travailleurs domestiques en Haïti. L’objectif principal de la recherche est d’obtenir une meilleure compréhension du phénomène du travail domestique des enfants en Haïti, ainsi qu’établir une cartographie (ou « mapping ») des réponses institutionnelles existantes. Les résultats de ce rapport s’appuient sur des données statistiques d’une enquête nationale par questionnaire, administrée auprès des ménages en septembre 2014. Le rapport s’appuie aussi sur les enseignements d’une étude qualitative menée en Haïti en 2014, ainsi que ceux d’une analyse institutionnelle, qui comprend un travail de terrain exécuté en Haïti de mai à septembre 2014. De plus, le rapport s’appuie sur une revue de la littérature scientifique récente, et des travaux politiques sur les enfants travailleurs domestiques en Haïti. La recherche a été lancée par l’UNICEF, le Ministère des Affaires Sociales et du Travail (MAST) d’Haïti, l’Institut du Bien-Être Social et de Recherches (IBESR), l’OIT, l’OIM, l’IRC et la Fondation Terre des Hommes Lausanne. L’étude a été menée avec l’aide de 28 organisations haïtiennes qui ont servi de groupe de référence pour le projet de recherche.

Papers by Jon Pedersen

The Lancet Global Health, Feb 1, 2022

Background The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call... more Background The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set in 2015 by the UN General Assembly, call for all countries to reach an under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) of at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths and a neonatal mortality rate (NMR) of at least as low as 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths by 2030. We estimated levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2019, and conducted scenario-based projections of the U5MR and NMR from 2020 to 2030 to assess country progress in, and potential for, reaching SDG targets on child survival and the potential under-5 and neonatal deaths over the next decade. Methods Levels and trends in under-5 mortality are based on the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database on under-5 mortality, which contains around 18 000 country-year datapoints for 195 countries-nearly 10 000 of those datapoints since 1990. The database includes nationally representative mortality data from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, population censuses, and household surveys. As with previous sets of national UN IGME estimates, a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model (B3) that considers the systematic biases associated with the different data source types was fitted to these data to generate estimates of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality with uncertainty intervals for 1990-2019 for all countries. Levels and trends in the neonatal mortality rate (0-27 days) are modelled separately as the log ratio of the neonatal mortality rate to the under-5 mortality rate using a Bayesian model. Estimated mortality rates are combined with livebirths data to calculate the number of under-5 and neonatal deaths. To assess the regional and global burden of under-5 deaths in the present decade and progress towards SDG targets, we constructed several scenario-based projections of under-5 mortality from 2020 to 2030 and estimated national, regional, and global under-5 mortality trends up to 2030 for each scenario. Findings The global U5MR decreased by 59% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 56-61) from 93•0 (91•7-94•5) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 37•7 (36•1-40•8) in 2019, while the annual number of global under-5 deaths declined from 12•5 (12•3-12•7) million in 1990 to 5•2 (5•0-5•6) million in 2019-a 58% (55-60) reduction. The global NMR decreased by 52% (90% UI 48-55) from 36•6 (35•6-37•8) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990, to 17•5 (16•6-19•0) in 2019, and the annual number of global neonatal deaths declined from 5•0 (4•9-5•2) million in 1990, to 2•4 (2•3-2•7) million in 2019, a 51% (47-54) reduction. As of 2019, 122 of 195 countries have achieved the SDG U5MR target, and 20 countries are on track to achieve the target by 2030, while 53 will need to accelerate progress to meet the target by 2030. 116 countries have reached the SDG NMR target with 16 on track, leaving 63 at risk of missing the target. If current trends continue, 48•1 million under-5 deaths are projected to occur between 2020 and 2030, almost half of them projected to occur during the neonatal period. If all countries met the SDG target on under-5 mortality, 11 million under-5 deaths could be averted between 2020 and 2030. Interpretation As a result of effective global health initiatives, millions of child deaths have been prevented since 1990. However, the task of ending all preventable child deaths is not done and millions more deaths could be averted by meeting international targets. Geographical and economic variation demonstrate the possibility of even lower mortality rates for children under age 5 years and point to the regions and countries with highest mortality rates and in greatest need of resources and action.

Social Science Research Network, 2021

Obstetrical & Gynecological Survey, Feb 1, 2022

Background Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of c... more Background Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time. Methods For a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate countryspecific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years. Findings Globally in 2019, an estimated 2•0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1•9-2•2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13•9 stillbirths (90% UI 13•5-15•4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22•8 stillbirths (19•8-27•7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2•9 (2•7-3•0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2•3% (90% UI 1•7-2•7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2•9% (2•5-3•2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4•3% (3•8-4•7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50•0%, 28 having a decrease of 25•0-49•9%, 50 having a decrease of 10•0-24•9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10•0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean. Interpretation Progress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

BMJ Global Health, 2021

The under-5 mortality rate has declined from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 39 per 100... more The under-5 mortality rate has declined from 93 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990 to 39 per 1000 live births in 2018. This improvement in child survival warrants an examination of age-specific trends and causes of death over time and across regions and an extension of the survival focus to older children and adolescents. We examine patterns and trends in mortality for neonates, postneonatal infants, young children, older children, young adolescents and older adolescents from 2000 to 2016. Levels and trends in causes of death for children and adolescents under 20 years of age are based on United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation for all-cause mortality, the Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation group for cause of death among children under-5 and WHO Global Health Estimates for 5–19 year-olds. From 2000 to 2016, the proportion of deaths in young children aged 1–4 years declined in most regions while neonatal deaths became over 25% of all deaths under 20 ...

Public Health Genomics, 2002

Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to explore the characteristics of mortality differences ... more Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to explore the characteristics of mortality differences associated with consanguineous marriage among Palestinians in the Middle East. Methods: The data came from five surveys of Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, conducted during the period 1995–2000. Infant and child mortality was estimated for the offspring of consanguineous and non-consanguineous parents using the synthetic cohort method. Results: The data showed an increase in infant mortality of 15.0 additional deaths per 1,000 births among the offspring of first cousins, and a corresponding increase of 6.1 deaths per 1,000 for the progeny of parents from the same patrilineal clan. Conclusion: In populations where marriage within kin groups is common, both first cousin marriage and intra-group marriage carries an added risk of infant and child mortality.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 18, 2020

Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geo... more Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested, from a bewildering range of philosophical standpoints. We describe design-based and model-based approaches and models that are specified at the area-level and at the unit-level, focusing on health applications and fully Bayesian spatial models. The use of auxiliary information is a key ingredient for successful inference when response data are sparse and we discuss a number of approaches that allow the inclusion of covariate data. SAE for HIV prevalence, using data collected from a Demographic Health Survey in Malawi in 2015-2016, is used to illustrate a number of techniques. The potential use of SAE techniques for outcomes related to COVID-19 is discussed.

Organizations and individuals involved in generating country-specific estimates of child mortalit... more Organizations and individuals involved in generating country-specific estimates of child mortality United Nations Children's Fund

This web appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal ... more This web appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal post it as supplied by the authors.Supplement to: Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L, Alkema L. National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment. Lancet Glob Health 2018; 6: e535-47.

This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal post... more This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal post it as supplied by the authors.<br>Supplement to: Alkema L, Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Sawyer CC. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. Lancet Glob Health 2014; 2: e521–30.

This paper was presented on Apr 23rd, 2020, in the 2020 Population Association of America Annual ... more This paper was presented on Apr 23rd, 2020, in the 2020 Population Association of America Annual Meeting (virtual due to COVID19), Washington, DC, USA.<br>The progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) since 1990 has been remarkable but uneven within countries between urban and rural populations. While trend U5MR estimates have been published frequently, an analysis of U5MR by urban and rural area has not been available across countries over time. In this paper, we provide annual estimates of U5MR among urban residence for 109 countries from 1990 to 2018 using a Bayesian time series model and assess the corresponding uncertainty. The analyses are based on an extensive database complied from surveys (including DHS, MICS, RHS, PAPFAM, PAPCHILD), censuses, and vital registration system. We present results for selected countries and identify country-years with the highest disparities in U5MR between urban area and national level.<br>

This conference paper was presented as a poster on Apr 27th, 2017, in the 2017 Population Associa... more This conference paper was presented as a poster on Apr 27th, 2017, in the 2017 Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, USA.<br>National-level estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) may mask disparities at the subnational level. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to assess disparities in the U5MR by household-level socioeconomic status (measured through wealth quintiles). In the model, country-specific ratios of wealth-quintile-specific U5MRs are modelled as the product of an expected ratio and a country-specific deviation from that expected ratio. We obtained quintile-specific estimates for 96 countries from 1990 (or the earliest year of data collection) to 2015 and pinpointed countries with unusually large or small disparities. We find that important differences exist between children from the poorest and richest households with respect to survival up to age five.

Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2021

International Statistical Review, 2020

Summary Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, o... more Summary Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested, from a bewildering range of philosophical standpoints We describe design-based and model-based approaches and models that are specified at the area level and at the unit level, focusing on health applications and fully Bayesian spatial models The use of auxiliary information is a key ingredient for successful inference when response data are sparse, and we discuss a number of approaches that allow the inclusion of covariate data SAE for HIV prevalence, using data collected from a Demographic Health Survey in Malawi in 2015?2016, is used to illustrate a number of techniques The potential use of SAE techniques for outcomes related to coronavirus disease 2019 is discussed

The Lancet. Global health, 2018

From 1990 to 2016, the mortality of children younger than 5 years decreased by more than half, an... more From 1990 to 2016, the mortality of children younger than 5 years decreased by more than half, and there are plentiful data regarding mortality in this age group through which we can track global progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate. By contrast, little is known on how the mortality risk among older children (5-9 years) and young adolescents (10-14 years) has changed in this time. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in mortality of children aged 5-14 years in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. In this analysis of empirical data, we expanded the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation database containing data on children younger than 5 years with 5530 data points regarding children aged 5-14 years. Mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 were obtained from nationally representative birth histories, data on household deaths reported in population censuses, and nationwide systems of civil registration and vital statistics. These data were used in a Bayesi...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2015

In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-... more In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in under-5 mortality for 195 countries from 1990 to 2015 to assess MDG 4 achievement and then intended to project how various post-2015 targets and observed rates of change will affect the burden of under-5 deaths from 2016 to 2030. We updated the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) database with 5700 country-year datapoints. As of July, 2015, the database contains about 17 000 country-year datapoints for mortality of children younger than 5 years for 195 countries, and includes all available nationally-representative data from vital registration systems, population censuses, household surveys, and sample registration systems. We used these data to generate estimates, with uncertainty intervals, of under-5 (age 0-4 years) mortality using a Bayesian B-spl...

Estimates of the age of children are often used uncritically in anthropomÃ©triemeasures. This stu... more Estimates of the age of children are often used uncritically in anthropomÃ©triemeasures. This study shows that even with construction of calendars for use of determination of age, substantial training, a careful follow-up in the field by research assistants, and control of all questionnaires immediately after the interviews of the caretakers and weighing of the children, errors remain in estimating the age of children. Such errors may affect the results substantially, leading to errors in the estimation of age-based measures of nutritional status. In the case of Northern Mali, the effect was most likely an underestimation of malnutrition by perhaps as much as 10 to 30 percentage points. The biases in age estimation in many cases are not constant across sub groups of a population. Therefore age estimation problems may lead to wrong decisions regarding policy formulation, planning of development programs and ac tivities, identification of target groups, and, in particular, evaluation ...

American Journal of Public Health, 2012

Objectives. We developed the Humanitarian Emergency Settings Perceived Needs (HESPER) Scale, a va... more Objectives. We developed the Humanitarian Emergency Settings Perceived Needs (HESPER) Scale, a valid and reliable scale to rapidly assess perceived needs of populations in humanitarian settings in low- and middle-income countries. Methods. We generated items through a literature review; reduced the number of items on the basis of a survey with humanitarian experts; pilot-tested the scale in Gaza, Jordan, Sudan, and the United Kingdom; and field-tested it in Haiti, Jordan, and Nepal. Results. During field-testing, intraclass correlation coefficients (absolute agreement) for the total number of unmet needs were 0.998 in Jordan, 0.986 in Haiti, and 0.995 in Nepal (interrater reliability), and 0.961 in Jordan and 0.773 in Nepal (test–retest reliability). Cohen’s κ for the 26 individual HESPER items ranged between 0.66 and 1.0 (interrater reliability) and between 0.07 and 1.0 (test–retest reliability) across sites. Most HESPER items correlated as predicted with related questions of the W...

The Lancet, 2021

Rapport Fafo 2015:55. , 2015

The Lancet Global Health, Feb 1, 2022

Social Science Research Network, 2021

Obstetrical & Gynecological Survey, Feb 1, 2022

BMJ Global Health, 2021

Public Health Genomics, 2002

arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 18, 2020

Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2021

International Statistical Review, 2020

The Lancet. Global health, 2018

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2015

American Journal of Public Health, 2012

The Lancet, 2021

Disasters

This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability fr... more This paper examines the vulnerability of households to disasters, using an asset vulnerability framework to represent livelihoods. Such frameworks are widely employed to analyse household poverty and focus on living conditions and well-being rather than money-metric measures of consumption and income. The conceptualisation of household vulnerability is a challenge in current studies on coping with disasters. The paper considers whether a capital assets framework is useful in identifying and assessing household vulnerability in the context of the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008. The framework has five categories of assets (financial, human, natural, physical, and social capital) and attempts to measure the resilience and vulnerability of households. When applied to a major disaster, asset-based methods face the problem of heterogeneity of the population, such as with regard to livelihood type or residence. Moreover, the effect of external interventions, such as the provision of relief assistance, must be taken into account.

Social Indicators Research, Jan 1, 2007

The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on c... more The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on children affected by armed conflict can be developed, and how such research can be carried out. Technical and methodological challenges involved in this pursuit are discussed. It is argued that data production must consider issues of definition and delineation of the phenomenon of war-affected children more actively than it does currently. An analytical approach is proposed, in which children's characteristics in different situations, or in different stages of conflict, may be used as intakes to understanding how the social processes pertaining to life histories of children in armed conflict are created and reproduced.