Jordi Gual - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Jordi Gual

Competition Policy International, 2005

This report argues in favour of an economics-based approach to Article 82, in a way similar to th... more This report argues in favour of an economics-based approach to Article 82, in a way similar to the reform of Article 81 and merger control. In particular, we support an effects-based rather than a form-based approach to competition policy. Such an approach focuses on the presence of anti-competitive effects that harm consumers, and is based on the examination of each specific case, based on sound economics and grounded on facts.

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2021

Documentos De Economia La Caixa, 2011

Este articulo intenta acotar la duracion y la profundidad del proceso de desapalancamiento en el ... more Este articulo intenta acotar la duracion y la profundidad del proceso de desapalancamiento en el que se encuentran inmersos la mayoria de paises desarrollados y, especialmente, la economia espanola. Para ello se utilizan dos aproximaciones distintas. Por un lado, se estima el nivel sostenible a largo plazo de la ratio de apalancamiento utilizando datos de 16 paises desarrollados. El resultado muestra que el apalancamiento de la economia espanola, como en la mayoria de paises, se encuentra por encima de su nivel sostenible a largo plazo. Por otro lado, se analizan cuales han sido las caracteristicas de los procesos de desapalancamiento durante los ultimos 30 anos. De este segundo analisis se obtiene que un proceso de desapalancamiento tipico dura alrededor de 5 anos, y durante este periodo de tiempo la ratio de apalancamiento retrocede 19 puntos porcentuales. Los episodios asociados a una crisis inmobiliaria y bancaria son mas severos: en promedio duran 7 anos y presentan una caida de la ratio de apalancamiento de 32 puntos porcentuales. Estas estimaciones se utilizan para evaluar el posible ritmo y la magnitud del desapalancamiento en Espana.

Revista De Occidente, 2011

The increased integration of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe with the European Union ... more The increased integration of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe with the European Union (EU) as the Europe Agreements are progressively implemented, is projected to have a significant impact on trade flows with Spain, as exports and imports grow very rapidly, albeit starting from a very low base. In particular, the effect will be important for labour-intensive industries, which

Impact on competition resulting from government intervention to bail out the banking system

This paper assesses the coherence between industrial policy, competition policy and trade policy ... more This paper assesses the coherence between industrial policy, competition policy and trade policy in the European Union (EU). This assessment is undertaken from the perspective of the optimal deployment of economic policies as prescribed by economic analysis and takes into consideration the legal mandate and the institutional constraints imposed by EU treaties and regulations. The analysis shows that as a result of the limited policy tools available to the Union, trade and competition policies have to fulfil several competing goals. This multiplicity of objectives leads to non-optimal interventions. Policy inconsistencies arise also between trade/competition policies and the industrial policy of Member States. Current policy practice leads to inefficient outcomes both in mature and sunrise industries. These inefficiencies could be reduced with a reinforcement of integration policies (notably, state aid control). The paper argues that the current institutional arrangements allow for a strengthening of centralized industrial policy, however, which could be usefully utilized to achieve more efficient outcomes. Other policy conflicts, mostly between trade and competition policies, are also discussed.

Documentos De Economia La Caixa, 2011

espanolEste documento examina los razonamientos teoricos y las evidencias empiricas que se argume... more espanolEste documento examina los razonamientos teoricos y las evidencias empiricas que se argumentan para proponer el aumento de los requisitos de capital en la normativa de Basilea III. El analisis en detalle de la teoria y la evidencia empirica arroja dudas sobre los efectos beneficiosos de Basilea III. Se muestra que no es probable que las nuevas normas regulatorias reduzcan la asuncion de riesgos en el sector bancario y que el aumento de los requisitos de capital ocasionara muy probablemente elevaciones de los costes de financiacion para el mismo, con consecuencias desfavorables para la economia real. EnglishThe paper reviews the theoretical and empirical arguments behind the increase in capital requirements proposed by the Basel III regulations. The detailed analysis of both theory and evidence casts doubt on the beneficial effects of Basel III. It is shown that the new regulations are unlikely to diminish risk taking in the banking industry and that the increased capital requirements most likely will lead to increased costs of funding for the industry with adverse consequences for the real economy.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

The telecommunications industry is usually among the most concentrated of the economy. Neverthele... more The telecommunications industry is usually among the most concentrated of the economy. Nevertheless, mergers and acquisitions are quite common in the industry since the late 1990's and they seem to pick up after the burst of the telecoms bubble. Will this trend towards concentration last into the future? This paper presents a critical assessment of the probability of increased concentration and identifies those business segments more prone to new mergers. To that end, the paper details the main theoretical motivations behind mergers and acquisitions. This review, together with a comparative analysis of the experiences in Europe and the US, suggests that mergers are a logical consequence of the substantial technological progress and the successive regulatory changes experienced by the sector. The existence of new transactions will thus depend on the direction taken by sectoral regulation and the pace of innovation: Specifically, the regulation of new generation networks and the quality of real-time transmission of digital content are some of the key variables to track in order to assess the probability of new mergers.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the broadband policy of the European Union. In par... more This paper provides an empirical assessment of the broadband policy of the European Union. In particular, we assess in more detail the e¤ects of mandatory local loop unbundling on several market dimensions. We …nd that it has bene…ted broadband adoption through signi…cant quality improvements. However, we also …nd that other regulatory features outside the scope of the new regulatory framework hinder broadband development in a signi…cant manner.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

Market definition for antitrust purposes is by now firmly rooted in economic analysis both in the... more Market definition for antitrust purposes is by now firmly rooted in economic analysis both in the US and the EU, even if the approaches are slightly different. This paper examines the theoretical basis for the legal definitions and assesses whether the general principles need to be adapted when dealing with the telecommunications services industry. The paper finds that the conventional antitrust methodology for market definition can be, to a large extent, readily applied to the telecoms industry but points out some key adjustments that have to be made to this methodology to ensure that the antitrust and regulatory authorities end up defining markets which capture adequately the nature of the competitive interaction in this industry. The definition of markets should be based on a detailed analysis of demand (both complementarities and substitutabilities) and the consideration of all companies which have the assets and capabilities to satisfy these consumer needs. Such an exercise should be done first, and distinguished from the subsequent analysis of the competitive conditions in the markets defined as relevant.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

This paper presents new data, in the form of four indices, on liberalization policies and the ind... more This paper presents new data, in the form of four indices, on liberalization policies and the independence of regulators for a cross-section of countries. These indices are combined with a comprehensive set of performance, institutional and political data to analyze both the determinants and the impact of telecommunications policies. We find that liberalization policies are negatively associated with the degree to which countries have an interventionist tradition, but not with the partisan ideology of reforming countries per se. We also find that countries where the institutional endowment constrains less the behaviour of the executive bodies, and countries with a stronger incumbent, are more prone to create truly independent regulatory agencies. There is weak evidence that the creation of independent regulatory agencies has a positive effect on network penetration when we take into account the endogeneity of regulatory independence.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

Page 1. No. 05 JUNE 2007 Integrating regulated network markets in Europe Jordi Gual Page 2. ”la C... more Page 1. No. 05 JUNE 2007 Integrating regulated network markets in Europe Jordi Gual Page 2. ”la Caixa” Research Department Av. Diagonal, 629, torre I, planta 6 08028 BARCELONA Tel. 93 404 76 82 Telefax 93 404 68 92 ...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper provides a critical analysis of some of the key features of merger policy as understoo... more This paper provides a critical analysis of some of the key features of merger policy as understood and practiced in leading jurisdictions such as the European Community and the United States. It focuses first on a discussion of the gradual move of merger policy towards the examination of unilateral effects. The critical appraisal of this process is based on the practical and theoretical shortcomings of the economic models that underlie the growing prominence of unilateral effects as the key anticompetitive factor arising from a proposed merger. The paper stresses that even if unilateral effects were to lead to an increase in the conventional measures of anticompetitive performance (such as markups), it is not clear that this would imply less competitive behavior for many of the most relevant industries in today's advanced economies. Finally, the paper also examines the relation between competition and welfare, and argues that even if competition does indeed diminish due to a merger, it is not a straightforward conclusion that this is not good in terms of economic welfare, when we take fully into consideration the incentives to innovate and the dynamic welfare gains that arise from new products and production processes.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

This paper provides an analysis of all the European Commission's decisions on antitrust cases bet... more This paper provides an analysis of all the European Commission's decisions on antitrust cases between January 1999 and February 2004. We use a unique dataset that contains information not only on the cases that were analyzed by the Commission and for which a decision was finally made public, but also on all the cases that were never pursued any further and those for which there is no final public decision. We have two goals. First, this data allows us, for the first time in the literature, to determine whether there is any type of bias in the selection process followed by the Commission when deciding which cases to pursue until a final decision is reached. Our results show that the selection of cases is not random and that it is quite efficient. Second, we can contribute to determine whether the criteria that have been shown by the economic literature to play an important role in anti-competitive behavior, are also important for the Commission's decisions in antitrust cases. Our results suggest that this is the case.

The Key Policy Debates

The goal of this paper is to provide an assessment of the EU policies that pursue the creation of... more The goal of this paper is to provide an assessment of the EU policies that pursue the creation of a single banking market. The paper evaluates the degree of integration of EU banking markets and discusses whether current policies are the most appropriate instruments for market integration. After comparing the key features of EU policy with alternative methods of market opening, the analysis stresses that market opening in regulated markets such as banking faces a difficult trade-off between respect for domestic preferences and the elimination of regulations that protect local competitors and are not justified on efficiency grounds. The paper also provides an overview of recent research which has looked at different indicators of market integration in EU banking. Finally, it analyzes the impact of integration policies on the conduct, the structure and the performance of the banking industry.

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar la competitividad de los distintos sectores que componen ... more El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar la competitividad de los distintos sectores que componen la industria manufacturera española. Para ello, y a partir de una definición concreta de competitividad sectorial en la industria, se presentan y analizan una serie de indicadores sobre los resultados alcanzados por cada sector en términos de participación en los mercados, intercambios con el exterior y generación de rentas.

Competition Policy International, 2005

This report argues in favour of an economics-based approach to Article 82, in a way similar to th... more This report argues in favour of an economics-based approach to Article 82, in a way similar to the reform of Article 81 and merger control. In particular, we support an effects-based rather than a form-based approach to competition policy. Such an approach focuses on the presence of anti-competitive effects that harm consumers, and is based on the examination of each specific case, based on sound economics and grounded on facts.

Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2021

Documentos De Economia La Caixa, 2011

Este articulo intenta acotar la duracion y la profundidad del proceso de desapalancamiento en el ... more Este articulo intenta acotar la duracion y la profundidad del proceso de desapalancamiento en el que se encuentran inmersos la mayoria de paises desarrollados y, especialmente, la economia espanola. Para ello se utilizan dos aproximaciones distintas. Por un lado, se estima el nivel sostenible a largo plazo de la ratio de apalancamiento utilizando datos de 16 paises desarrollados. El resultado muestra que el apalancamiento de la economia espanola, como en la mayoria de paises, se encuentra por encima de su nivel sostenible a largo plazo. Por otro lado, se analizan cuales han sido las caracteristicas de los procesos de desapalancamiento durante los ultimos 30 anos. De este segundo analisis se obtiene que un proceso de desapalancamiento tipico dura alrededor de 5 anos, y durante este periodo de tiempo la ratio de apalancamiento retrocede 19 puntos porcentuales. Los episodios asociados a una crisis inmobiliaria y bancaria son mas severos: en promedio duran 7 anos y presentan una caida de la ratio de apalancamiento de 32 puntos porcentuales. Estas estimaciones se utilizan para evaluar el posible ritmo y la magnitud del desapalancamiento en Espana.

Revista De Occidente, 2011

The increased integration of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe with the European Union ... more The increased integration of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe with the European Union (EU) as the Europe Agreements are progressively implemented, is projected to have a significant impact on trade flows with Spain, as exports and imports grow very rapidly, albeit starting from a very low base. In particular, the effect will be important for labour-intensive industries, which

Impact on competition resulting from government intervention to bail out the banking system

This paper assesses the coherence between industrial policy, competition policy and trade policy ... more This paper assesses the coherence between industrial policy, competition policy and trade policy in the European Union (EU). This assessment is undertaken from the perspective of the optimal deployment of economic policies as prescribed by economic analysis and takes into consideration the legal mandate and the institutional constraints imposed by EU treaties and regulations. The analysis shows that as a result of the limited policy tools available to the Union, trade and competition policies have to fulfil several competing goals. This multiplicity of objectives leads to non-optimal interventions. Policy inconsistencies arise also between trade/competition policies and the industrial policy of Member States. Current policy practice leads to inefficient outcomes both in mature and sunrise industries. These inefficiencies could be reduced with a reinforcement of integration policies (notably, state aid control). The paper argues that the current institutional arrangements allow for a strengthening of centralized industrial policy, however, which could be usefully utilized to achieve more efficient outcomes. Other policy conflicts, mostly between trade and competition policies, are also discussed.

Documentos De Economia La Caixa, 2011

espanolEste documento examina los razonamientos teoricos y las evidencias empiricas que se argume... more espanolEste documento examina los razonamientos teoricos y las evidencias empiricas que se argumentan para proponer el aumento de los requisitos de capital en la normativa de Basilea III. El analisis en detalle de la teoria y la evidencia empirica arroja dudas sobre los efectos beneficiosos de Basilea III. Se muestra que no es probable que las nuevas normas regulatorias reduzcan la asuncion de riesgos en el sector bancario y que el aumento de los requisitos de capital ocasionara muy probablemente elevaciones de los costes de financiacion para el mismo, con consecuencias desfavorables para la economia real. EnglishThe paper reviews the theoretical and empirical arguments behind the increase in capital requirements proposed by the Basel III regulations. The detailed analysis of both theory and evidence casts doubt on the beneficial effects of Basel III. It is shown that the new regulations are unlikely to diminish risk taking in the banking industry and that the increased capital requirements most likely will lead to increased costs of funding for the industry with adverse consequences for the real economy.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

The telecommunications industry is usually among the most concentrated of the economy. Neverthele... more The telecommunications industry is usually among the most concentrated of the economy. Nevertheless, mergers and acquisitions are quite common in the industry since the late 1990's and they seem to pick up after the burst of the telecoms bubble. Will this trend towards concentration last into the future? This paper presents a critical assessment of the probability of increased concentration and identifies those business segments more prone to new mergers. To that end, the paper details the main theoretical motivations behind mergers and acquisitions. This review, together with a comparative analysis of the experiences in Europe and the US, suggests that mergers are a logical consequence of the substantial technological progress and the successive regulatory changes experienced by the sector. The existence of new transactions will thus depend on the direction taken by sectoral regulation and the pace of innovation: Specifically, the regulation of new generation networks and the quality of real-time transmission of digital content are some of the key variables to track in order to assess the probability of new mergers.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the broadband policy of the European Union. In par... more This paper provides an empirical assessment of the broadband policy of the European Union. In particular, we assess in more detail the e¤ects of mandatory local loop unbundling on several market dimensions. We …nd that it has bene…ted broadband adoption through signi…cant quality improvements. However, we also …nd that other regulatory features outside the scope of the new regulatory framework hinder broadband development in a signi…cant manner.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

Market definition for antitrust purposes is by now firmly rooted in economic analysis both in the... more Market definition for antitrust purposes is by now firmly rooted in economic analysis both in the US and the EU, even if the approaches are slightly different. This paper examines the theoretical basis for the legal definitions and assesses whether the general principles need to be adapted when dealing with the telecommunications services industry. The paper finds that the conventional antitrust methodology for market definition can be, to a large extent, readily applied to the telecoms industry but points out some key adjustments that have to be made to this methodology to ensure that the antitrust and regulatory authorities end up defining markets which capture adequately the nature of the competitive interaction in this industry. The definition of markets should be based on a detailed analysis of demand (both complementarities and substitutabilities) and the consideration of all companies which have the assets and capabilities to satisfy these consumer needs. Such an exercise should be done first, and distinguished from the subsequent analysis of the competitive conditions in the markets defined as relevant.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003

This paper presents new data, in the form of four indices, on liberalization policies and the ind... more This paper presents new data, in the form of four indices, on liberalization policies and the independence of regulators for a cross-section of countries. These indices are combined with a comprehensive set of performance, institutional and political data to analyze both the determinants and the impact of telecommunications policies. We find that liberalization policies are negatively associated with the degree to which countries have an interventionist tradition, but not with the partisan ideology of reforming countries per se. We also find that countries where the institutional endowment constrains less the behaviour of the executive bodies, and countries with a stronger incumbent, are more prone to create truly independent regulatory agencies. There is weak evidence that the creation of independent regulatory agencies has a positive effect on network penetration when we take into account the endogeneity of regulatory independence.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

Page 1. No. 05 JUNE 2007 Integrating regulated network markets in Europe Jordi Gual Page 2. ”la C... more Page 1. No. 05 JUNE 2007 Integrating regulated network markets in Europe Jordi Gual Page 2. ”la Caixa” Research Department Av. Diagonal, 629, torre I, planta 6 08028 BARCELONA Tel. 93 404 76 82 Telefax 93 404 68 92 ...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper provides a critical analysis of some of the key features of merger policy as understoo... more This paper provides a critical analysis of some of the key features of merger policy as understood and practiced in leading jurisdictions such as the European Community and the United States. It focuses first on a discussion of the gradual move of merger policy towards the examination of unilateral effects. The critical appraisal of this process is based on the practical and theoretical shortcomings of the economic models that underlie the growing prominence of unilateral effects as the key anticompetitive factor arising from a proposed merger. The paper stresses that even if unilateral effects were to lead to an increase in the conventional measures of anticompetitive performance (such as markups), it is not clear that this would imply less competitive behavior for many of the most relevant industries in today's advanced economies. Finally, the paper also examines the relation between competition and welfare, and argues that even if competition does indeed diminish due to a merger, it is not a straightforward conclusion that this is not good in terms of economic welfare, when we take fully into consideration the incentives to innovate and the dynamic welfare gains that arise from new products and production processes.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

This paper provides an analysis of all the European Commission's decisions on antitrust cases bet... more This paper provides an analysis of all the European Commission's decisions on antitrust cases between January 1999 and February 2004. We use a unique dataset that contains information not only on the cases that were analyzed by the Commission and for which a decision was finally made public, but also on all the cases that were never pursued any further and those for which there is no final public decision. We have two goals. First, this data allows us, for the first time in the literature, to determine whether there is any type of bias in the selection process followed by the Commission when deciding which cases to pursue until a final decision is reached. Our results show that the selection of cases is not random and that it is quite efficient. Second, we can contribute to determine whether the criteria that have been shown by the economic literature to play an important role in anti-competitive behavior, are also important for the Commission's decisions in antitrust cases. Our results suggest that this is the case.

The Key Policy Debates

The goal of this paper is to provide an assessment of the EU policies that pursue the creation of... more The goal of this paper is to provide an assessment of the EU policies that pursue the creation of a single banking market. The paper evaluates the degree of integration of EU banking markets and discusses whether current policies are the most appropriate instruments for market integration. After comparing the key features of EU policy with alternative methods of market opening, the analysis stresses that market opening in regulated markets such as banking faces a difficult trade-off between respect for domestic preferences and the elimination of regulations that protect local competitors and are not justified on efficiency grounds. The paper also provides an overview of recent research which has looked at different indicators of market integration in EU banking. Finally, it analyzes the impact of integration policies on the conduct, the structure and the performance of the banking industry.

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar la competitividad de los distintos sectores que componen ... more El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar la competitividad de los distintos sectores que componen la industria manufacturera española. Para ello, y a partir de una definición concreta de competitividad sectorial en la industria, se presentan y analizan una serie de indicadores sobre los resultados alcanzados por cada sector en términos de participación en los mercados, intercambios con el exterior y generación de rentas.