Joseph Fiksel - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Joseph Fiksel
Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, 1987
... ISBN:0-387-17986-0. Authors, Joseph Fiksel, Teknowledge Inc., Palo Alto, CA. Vincent T. Covel... more ... ISBN:0-387-17986-0. Authors, Joseph Fiksel, Teknowledge Inc., Palo Alto, CA. Vincent T. Covello, National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ... General Terms: Human Factors, Management. Collaborative Colleagues: Joseph Fiksel: colleagues. Vincent T. Covello: colleagues ...
ABSTRACT A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses... more ABSTRACT A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.
IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2007
A comprehensive systems approach is essential for effective decision making with regard to global... more A comprehensive systems approach is essential for effective decision making with regard to global sustainability, since industrial, social, and ecological systems are closely linked. Despite efforts to reduce unsustainability, global resource consumption continues to grow. There ...
Environmental Quality Management, 1994
Environmental Quality Management, 1996
Environmental Quality Management, 1993
Environmental Development, 2012
Pure and Applied Chemistry, 2001
The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of value-impact analysis (VIA) to the s... more The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of value-impact analysis (VIA) to the selection of R and D projects in the field of nuclear reactor safety. A practical methodology was developed for describing alternative R and D projects, for eliminating inferior projects, for evaluating the remaining projects, and for ranking them for selection purposes. This approach was demonstrated by applying it to four sample projects dealing with improvements in residual heat removal systems. It was found that the conventional VIA approach is inadequate for the purposes of R and D project selection. A number of modifications are suggested to permit more explicit treatment of the risk and uncertainty inherent in R and D projects and to clarify the basis for choice among them.
The purpose of this study is two-fold to critically review the applicability of a conventional ri... more The purpose of this study is two-fold to critically review the applicability of a conventional risk analysis approach to the assessment of human health and safety risks in the area of electricity production; and to suggest and demonstrate possible methodological improvements in current approaches. Based on a review of important past studies, a general methodology that is representative of state-of-the art approaches is proposed, and this methodology is applied to the comparative risk analysis of eight selected electricity-producing processes. A process analysis approach is used throughout. Each energy producing system is decomposed into stages, and the risks at each stage are analyzed separately. Risk estimates from each stage are normalized to give common units (e.g., fatalities per unit energy produced), and the normalized estimates are summed across stages to obtain a risk estimate for the system as a whole. The eight electricity-producing systems considered use coal, oil, natura...
This article reports on a study designed to assess the applicability of value-impact anlaysis (VI... more This article reports on a study designed to assess the applicability of value-impact anlaysis (VIA) to the selection of research and development (R and D) projects in the field of nuclear reactor safety. A practical methodology was developed for describing alternative R and D projects, eliminating inferior ones, evaluating the remainder, and ranking them for selection purposes. This approach was demonstrated by applying it to four sample projects dealing with improvements in residual heat removal systems. The conventional VIA approach was found to be inadequate for the purposes of R and D project selection, and several improvements are suggested.
A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through ... more A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.
Risk Analysis
The term artificial intelligence (AI) often con-jures up images of industrial robots and langua... more The term artificial intelligence (AI) often con-jures up images of industrial robots and language translation machines. However, one of the fastest-growing application areas for A1 is in management decision-making support for both business and government. In particular, A1 promises to ...
Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, 1987
... ISBN:0-387-17986-0. Authors, Joseph Fiksel, Teknowledge Inc., Palo Alto, CA. Vincent T. Covel... more ... ISBN:0-387-17986-0. Authors, Joseph Fiksel, Teknowledge Inc., Palo Alto, CA. Vincent T. Covello, National Science Foundation, Washington, DC. ... General Terms: Human Factors, Management. Collaborative Colleagues: Joseph Fiksel: colleagues. Vincent T. Covello: colleagues ...
ABSTRACT A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses... more ABSTRACT A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.
IEEE Engineering Management Review, 2007
A comprehensive systems approach is essential for effective decision making with regard to global... more A comprehensive systems approach is essential for effective decision making with regard to global sustainability, since industrial, social, and ecological systems are closely linked. Despite efforts to reduce unsustainability, global resource consumption continues to grow. There ...
Environmental Quality Management, 1994
Environmental Quality Management, 1996
Environmental Quality Management, 1993
Environmental Development, 2012
Pure and Applied Chemistry, 2001
The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of value-impact analysis (VIA) to the s... more The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of value-impact analysis (VIA) to the selection of R and D projects in the field of nuclear reactor safety. A practical methodology was developed for describing alternative R and D projects, for eliminating inferior projects, for evaluating the remaining projects, and for ranking them for selection purposes. This approach was demonstrated by applying it to four sample projects dealing with improvements in residual heat removal systems. It was found that the conventional VIA approach is inadequate for the purposes of R and D project selection. A number of modifications are suggested to permit more explicit treatment of the risk and uncertainty inherent in R and D projects and to clarify the basis for choice among them.
The purpose of this study is two-fold to critically review the applicability of a conventional ri... more The purpose of this study is two-fold to critically review the applicability of a conventional risk analysis approach to the assessment of human health and safety risks in the area of electricity production; and to suggest and demonstrate possible methodological improvements in current approaches. Based on a review of important past studies, a general methodology that is representative of state-of-the art approaches is proposed, and this methodology is applied to the comparative risk analysis of eight selected electricity-producing processes. A process analysis approach is used throughout. Each energy producing system is decomposed into stages, and the risks at each stage are analyzed separately. Risk estimates from each stage are normalized to give common units (e.g., fatalities per unit energy produced), and the normalized estimates are summed across stages to obtain a risk estimate for the system as a whole. The eight electricity-producing systems considered use coal, oil, natura...
This article reports on a study designed to assess the applicability of value-impact anlaysis (VI... more This article reports on a study designed to assess the applicability of value-impact anlaysis (VIA) to the selection of research and development (R and D) projects in the field of nuclear reactor safety. A practical methodology was developed for describing alternative R and D projects, eliminating inferior ones, evaluating the remainder, and ranking them for selection purposes. This approach was demonstrated by applying it to four sample projects dealing with improvements in residual heat removal systems. The conventional VIA approach was found to be inadequate for the purposes of R and D project selection, and several improvements are suggested.
A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through ... more A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding 250(1977dollars)andthelikelihoodofexceeding107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.
Risk Analysis
The term artificial intelligence (AI) often con-jures up images of industrial robots and langua... more The term artificial intelligence (AI) often con-jures up images of industrial robots and language translation machines. However, one of the fastest-growing application areas for A1 is in management decision-making support for both business and government. In particular, A1 promises to ...