Julio Issao Kuwajima - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Julio Issao Kuwajima

Ipea is a public foundation linked to the Ministry of Planning, Development and Management that p... more Ipea is a public foundation linked to the Ministry of Planning, Development and Management that provides technical support to governmental actions, enabling the design of numerous public policies and programs focused on development in Brazil. Ipea also makes the research and studies conducted by its technical staff available to society.

A partir da compreensão da importância do papel do Estado nos serviços de abastecimento de água e... more A partir da compreensão da importância do papel do Estado nos serviços de abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário, este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma proposta metodológica com critérios de priorização do investimento nessa área. Para tanto, a partir das atribuições previstas na legislação, o estudo classifica os municípios brasileiros a partir de um conjunto de indicadores, gerando um ranking por grupos de prioridades, de modo a equilibrar as condições de acesso aos recursos públicos. Considera-se que o aperfeiçoamento da alocação de recursos da União no setor, no momento de crise fiscal, deve seguir critérios que atendam cidadãos em situação de maior vulnerabilidade social e a municípios com os maiores deficit. Como resultado, são listados 961 municípios com graus de prioridade máxima e prioritários, bem como dois outros grupos com serviços precários de água ou de esgotamento sanitário que devem ser considerados, beneficiando 35,7 milhões de habitantes nesses grup...

La publicación de este documento, durante el 8º Foro Mundial del Agua, es un importante paso al f... more La publicación de este documento, durante el 8º Foro Mundial del Agua, es un importante paso al frente de un proyecto conjunto de la Agencia Nacional del Agua (ANA) junto con el Instituto de Investigación Económica Aplicada (IPEA), el Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD) y el Centro Internacional de Políticas para el Crecimiento Inclusivo (IPC-IG), con el fin de apoyar el trabajo de la Comisión Nacional para los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (CNODS) en relación al ODS 6 – Agua y Saneamiento. Con el objetivo de realizar un diagnóstico de políticas, experiencias de gestión, indicadores y pro-puestas de implantación para las metas del Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible 6 (ODS 6), el proyecto prevé la realización de tres seminarios cuyos objetivos son promover diálogos, recoger opiniones y difundir co-nocimientos sobre la gestión del agua en Brasil en el marco del ODS 6. El presente documento fue elaborado a partir de las contribuciones del 1º seminario: “Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible y los Desafíos para la Gestión del Agua y del Saneamiento en Brasil” . El seminario, que tuvo lugar el 1 de febrero de 2018 en la sede del Instituto de Investigación Económica Aplicada (IPEA), en Brasilia, contó con la participación de reconocidos panelistas y representantes gubernamentales y de dis-tintos sectores sociales que actúan tanto en la gestión de recursos hídricos como en la implementación de políticas de la Agenda 2030 en Brasil. Con el objetivo facilitar la comprensión del con-texto actual de la gestión del agua en Brasil y de la promoción de la Agenda 2030, y específicamente del ODS 6, el presente texto está organizado en cuatro partes: la primera explica brevemente el proyecto; la segunda introduce el tema de la gestión del agua, del saneamiento y de la implementación de la Agenda 2030 en Brasil; la tercera parte incluye una síntesis de las principales informaciones surgidas durante los cuatro paneles temáticos del seminario, y en la ultima parte se ofrece un comentario final y se describen los próximos pasos previstos para el proyecto.

Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science

The siltation processes results in loss of reservation volume, affecting water availability for i... more The siltation processes results in loss of reservation volume, affecting water availability for irrigation, human consumption, and Power generation. Usually the quantification of silting of dams is done by direct measurement using bathymetry. However it cannot be obtained in a continuous time scale, since the data series is limited to the interval of bathymetrics surveys carried out. This paper proposes the applicability of the models SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), as a complementary tool to estimate daily sediment generation, as well as a tool for managing water resources, since it is possible to generate future scenarios, so it is possible to assess and make predictions on the effect and impact that actions related to soil conservation practices, urbanizations and agricultural practice may influence the reservoir.

Reservoirs are built seeking to ensure the several purposes of water supply, always presenting vo... more Reservoirs are built seeking to ensure the several purposes of water supply, always presenting volume loss due sedimentation processes. When it comes to power generation, sedimentation process directly leads to a power generation capacity loss of a Hydropower Plant. Whereas in Brazil hydroelectricity generation represents 71,02% of total electricity generated (ANEEL, 2011a), perform hydrosedimentological studies have great importance to management and planning the Brazil’s energy sector. Thus, The Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency (“Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica” – ANEEL) has partnered with Brazilian National Water Agency (“Agência Nacional de Águas – ANA) to write regulations governing hydrosedimentological studies for hydroelectricity sector. In August 10th, 2010, was published the resolution called “Resolução Conjunta N° 003 ANEEL – ANA” repealing previous resolutions governing the theme. This paper main focuses in a technical analysis on the resolution, discussing...

Hydropower is the main electricity source of Brazil. The related hydropower reservoirs are multip... more Hydropower is the main electricity source of Brazil. The related hydropower reservoirs are multipurpose thus besides efficient and reliable energy production, they are relevant for flood control. In this context, the present study shows results of an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) for supporting the operational decision making implemented at Três Marias hydroelectric power project located in the São Francisco River basin in Brazil. It is a large tropical river basin with approximately 55,000km 2 up to the Três Marias dam. The hydrological model used in the study is the MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias from Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas), a large scale distributed hydrological model. Applied in an operational forecasting mode, it uses an empirical data assimilation method to take into account real time streamflow observations to update its state variables. We present results of a hindcast experiment with observed precipitation and streamflow data from the local energy utility, CEMIG (Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais), and from the Brazilian water agency, ANA (Agencia Nacional de Água),. Probabilistic Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) from CPTEC (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are used to generate the ESP. The data products and the MGB-IPH model are integrated into an open shell forecasting platform based on the software package Delft-FEWS. Inside the forecasting platform a hindcast mode over a forecast lead time of 10-16 days in recent rainfall periods is applied in. The ESP results are compared to deterministic forecasts of the Três Marias reservoir inflow. The results assessment verifies the added value of the ESP in general in comparison to the use of deterministic forecasts by means of different performance indicators. The ESP derived from the ECMWP ensemble shows the best performance. A future application of the ESP will be the operational short-term management of the Três Marias reservoir. The related multi-stage stochastic optimization procedure is currently under development.

This paper presents two different terrain modeling techniques to assess sedimentation employing s... more This paper presents two different terrain modeling techniques to assess sedimentation employing single-beam bathymetric data, using as a case of study a Peruvian reservoir located in the Andes Mountains. Both methods used the same input data. The first method employed was the traditional method and the second was Insertion of Mesh Points (IMP). In agreement with previous findings, the IMP method produced lower sedimentation values but proved to be satisfactory for the case.

Water Resources Management, 2015

An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood ri... more An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimi...

Short-term reservoir optimization, or model predictive control (MPC), integrates model-based fore... more Short-term reservoir optimization, or model predictive control (MPC), integrates model-based forecasts and optimization algorithms to meet multiple management objectives: water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. It is a valuable decision support tool to handle water-stress conditions or flooding events, and supports decision makers to minimize their impact. If the reservoir management includes downstream control, for example for mitigation flood damages in inundation areas downstream of the operated dam, the flow routing between the dam and the downstream inundation area is of major importance. The Três Marias hydropower reservoir is located in the Upper São Francisco River in the center of Minas Gerais state, Brazil, with a drainage area of approximately 55,000 km2 (Figure 1). The region of interest in this use case extends to Pirapora city, located 120 km downstream of the reservoir. With a total storage of 19.5×109 m3 ...

1 INTRODUÇÃO ....................................................................................... more 1 INTRODUÇÃO ........................................................................................................7 2 UM DEBATE CONTROVERSO: IDAS E VINDAS DO SANEAMENTO ENTRE O PÚBLICO E O PRIVADO E ENTRE LACUNAS E AVANÇOS NA REGULAÇÃO .............10 3 A RECENTE POLÍTICA DE SANEAMENTO BÁSICO: AVANÇOS E DESAFIOS ..............17 4 INVESTIMENTOS SEGUNDO O PLANSAB ENTRE 2003 E 2017 ...............................27 5 TRANSIÇÃO NO SANEAMENTO: NOVOS PRINCÍPIOS E A REGULAÇÃO DO MERCADO .....................................................................................................42 6 CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS ......................................................................................57 REFERÊNCIAS .........................................................................................................60

Eu agradeço primeiramente ao meu orientador e meu amigo durante muitos anos, o Prof. Associado Fr... more Eu agradeço primeiramente ao meu orientador e meu amigo durante muitos anos, o Prof. Associado Frederico Fábio Mauad, por sempre acreditar no meu potencial e na minha pesquisa mesmo quando eu mesmo estava cheio de dúvidas. Muitas pessoas foram importantes e contribuíram intelectualmente para este trabalho, eu começo os agradecimentos pelos meus colegas do Núcleo de Hidrometria, o Dr. Renato Billia de Miranda, Dr. Gustavo D'Almeida Scarpinella e Marcus Vinícius Estigoni, este último com um agradecimento especial por ter sempre sido um grande amigo durante toda minha carreira acadêmica. Sou muito grato à orientação do Prof. Dr.-Ing André Niemann do Institut für Wasserbau und Wasserwirtschaft (WaWi) 1 na Universität Duisburg-Essen, onde tive o prazer de trabalhar com excelentes colegas como

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Texto para Discussão, 2020

Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science , 2020

The novel coronavirus pandemic has resulted in global socioeconomic impacts; however, there is st... more The novel coronavirus pandemic has resulted in global socioeconomic impacts; however, there is still a need to improve understanding and data about its form and patterns of propagation. Therefore, studies on the role of water resources and sanitation should be prioritized, given the potential to serve as a means of dispersing the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19 disease. So far, the RNA of the transmitting virus has been detected in domestic sewage in several countries, but there is, so far, no evidence of contamination by direct contact with these effluents. Even so, poor regions without adequate treatment of water and sewage, as occur in Brazil, must act in order to develop efficient policies to improve water quality aimed at public health. One of the options is the formation of a Hub that aggregates the various interrelated aspects of water and sanitation into a cohesive and actionable whole. It is essential to combine investment, research, and monitoring of water and effluent quality to improve sanitary security, water quality and human health, with an emphasis on the poorest sectors. The Hub would also serve as a means of controlling and monitoring the dispersion of pathogens such as the SARS-CoV-2 virus, thus mitigating economic and societal impacts. Recursos hídricos, políticas públicas e a pandemia de COVID-19 RESUMO A nova pandemia do coronavírus resultou em impactos socioeconômicos globais; no entanto, ainda há necessidade de melhorar o entendimento e os dados sobre sua forma e padrões de propagação. Portanto, estudos sobre o papel dos recursos hídricos e do saneamento devem ser priorizados, dado o potencial de servir como meio de dispersão do vírus SARS-CoV-2, causador da doença COVID-19. Até o momento, o RNA do vírus transmissor já foi detectado em esgoto doméstico de vários países, mas não há, no entanto, evidências de contaminação pelo contato direto com esses efluentes. Mesmo assim, regiões pobres e sem tratamento adequado de água e esgoto, como ocorre no Brasil, devem atuar no sentido de desenvolver políticas Rev. Ambient. Água vol. 15 n. 5, e2540-Taubaté 2020 2 Diego Antonio França de Freitas et al. eficientes de melhoria da qualidade da água voltadas para a saúde pública. Uma das opções é a formação de um Hub que agregue os vários aspectos inter-relacionados de água e saneamento em um contexto coeso e ágil. É essencial combinar investimento, pesquisa e monitoramento da qualidade da água e dos efluentes para melhorar a segurança sanitária, a qualidade da água e a saúde humana, com ênfase nas áreas mais pobres. O Hub também serviria como meio de controlar e monitorar a dispersão de patógenos como o vírus SARS-CoV-2, mitigando assim impactos econômicos e sociais. Palavras-chave: Hub integrador, saúde pública, tratamento de esgoto.

Texto para Discussão (TD), 2020

Este trabalho descreve e analisa a trajetória das políticas de saneamento no Brasil, com destaque... more Este trabalho descreve e analisa a trajetória das políticas de saneamento no Brasil, com destaque para o financiamento com recursos da União e para a evolução da regulação do setor. O objetivo do texto é evidenciar as distintas formas e modelos regulatórios já experimentados no setor, ressaltando as formas de participação do Estado e do setor privado e listando desafios e proposições para enfrentá-los. Destacam-se as dificuldades para superar baixos índices regionais de cobertura de serviços de abastecimento de água e, principalmente, de esgotamento sanitário, a partir de dados do Plano Nacional de Saneamento Básico (Plansab), do Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) e da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua). Chama-se a atenção também para os elementos centrais e perspectivas diante do cenário atual de mudanças da Lei no 11.445/2007, a qual menciona diretrizes, instrumentos e formas de financiar os serviços, dando ao saneamento status de infraestrutura e saúde. Nas conclusões evidenciam-se os recentes e importantes avanços na regulação estadual e municipal; os avanços e as incertezas nas mudanças do marco regulatório em implementação; e a tendência de aumento do peso da tarifa dos serviços nos investimentos. Apresentam-se sugestões para o aperfeiçoamento da política de saneamento e seus instrumentos, bem como para a regulação e os investimentos da União no setor.

Palavras-chave: saneamento; regulação; financiamento; privatização; saúde.

This paper describes and analyzes the trajectory of water and sanitation policies in Brazil, with emphasis on the Union acts on financing and regulation evolution in the sector. The objective is to point the different regulatory forms and models already tried, as well as to highlight the different forms of action of the State and the private sector and to discuss remaining challenges. The difficulties to overcome low regional rates of coverage of water supply services and, mainly, sanitary sewage that are listed on the Plano Nacional de Saneamento Básico (Plansab), Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) and Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua). We highlight the central elements and perspectives in face of current scenario of changes in Law 11445/2007, which provides guidelines, instruments and ways to finance services, giving water and sewage services a status of the infrastructure and health sectors. Among the conclusions we point: the recent advances in state and municipal regulation; advances and uncertainties in the changes in the regulatory framework under implementation; and the tendency to increase the weight of the tariff to investments. Suggestions are presented to improve the sanitation policy and its instruments, as well as for regulation and State investments in the sector.

Keywords: water; sanitary sewage; regulation; financing; health.

Water Resources Management, 2015

State-of-the-art applications of short-term reservoir management integrate several advanced compo... more State-of-the-art applications of short-term reservoir management integrate several advanced components, namely hydrological modelling and data assimilation techniques for predicting streamflow, optimization-based techniques for decision-making on the reservoir operation and the technical framework for integrating these components with data feeds from gauging networks, remote sensing data and meteorological weather predictions. In this paper, we present such a framework for the short-term management of reservoirs operated by the Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG) in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Our focus is the Três Marias hydropower reservoir in the São Francisco River with 1636 D. Schwanenberg et al. a drainage area of approximately 55,000 km and its operation for flood mitigation. Basis for the anticipatory short-term management of the reservoir over a forecast horizon of up to 15 days are streamflow predictions of the MGB hydrological model. The semi-distributed model is well suited to represent the watershed and shows a Nash-Sutcliffe model performance in the order of 0.83-0.90 for most streamflow gauges of the data-sparse basin. A lead time performance assessment of the deterministic and probabilistic ECMWF forecasts as model forcing indicate the superiority of the probabilistic model. The novel short-term optimization approach consists of the reduction of the ensemble forecasts into scenario trees as an input of a multi-stage stochastic optimization. We show that this approach has several advantages over commonly used deterministic methods which neglect forecast uncertainty in the short-term decision-making. First, the probabilistic forecasts have longer forecast horizons that allow an earlier and therefore better anticipation of critical flood events. Second, the stochastic optimization leads to more robust decisions than deterministic procedures which consider only a single future trajectory. Third, the stochastic optimization permits to introduce advanced chance constraints for refining the system operation.

Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2014

Short-term reservoir optimization, also referred to as model predictive control, integrates model... more Short-term reservoir optimization, also referred to as model predictive control, integrates model-based forecasts and optimization algorithms to meet multiple management objectives such as water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. It is a valuable decision support tool to handle water-stress conditions or flooding events, and supports decision makers to minimize their impact. If the reservoir management includes downstream control, for example for mitigation flood damages in inundation areas downstream of the operated dam, the flow routing between the dam and the downstream inundation area is of major importance. The unsteady open channel flow in river reaches can be described by the one-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. However, owing to the mathematical complexity of those equations, some simplifications may be required to speed up the computation within the optimization procedure. Another strategy to limit the model runtime is a schematization on a course computational grid. In particular the last measure can introduce significant numerical diffusion into the solution. This is a major drawback, in particular if the reservoir release has steep gradients which we often find in hydropower reservoirs. In this work, four different routing models are assessed concerning their implementation in the predictive control of the Três Marias Reservoir located at the Upper River São Francisco in Brazil: i) a fully dynamic model using the software package SOBEK; ii) a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model with Muskingum-Cunge routing for the flow reaches of interest, the MGB-IPH (Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias-Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas); iii) a reservoir routing approach; and iv) a diffusive wave model. The last two models are implemented in the RTC-Tool toolbox. The overall model accuracy between the simplified models in RTC-Tools (iii, iv) and the more sophisticated SOBEK model (i) are comparable, and a lower performance was assessed for the MGB model (ii). Whereas the SOBEK model is able to propagate sharp discharge gradient downstream, the diffusive wave model is damping these gradients significantly due to the course spatial schematization. In the reservoir routing model, which is also schematized on a course grid, we counteract this drawback by modeling parts of the river reach by advection. This results in an excellent ratio between model accuracy / robustness and computational effort making it the approach of choice from the predictive control perspective.

Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2014

An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood ris... more An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia En-ergética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Três Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2, an installed capacity of 396 MW and operation restrictions due to downstream flood risk. The focus of our discussion is the impact of sparsely available ground data, forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude the superiority of the stochastic methods.

Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science

Water Resources Management, 2015

Geological Society, London, Special Publications

Texto para Discussão, 2020

Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science , 2020

Texto para Discussão (TD), 2020

Palavras-chave: saneamento; regulação; financiamento; privatização; saúde.

Keywords: water; sanitary sewage; regulation; financing; health.

Water Resources Management, 2015

Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2014

2013 International SWAT Conference, 2013

The current SWAT model presents two methods of estimating the runoff: the SCS curve number proced... more The current SWAT model presents two methods of estimating the runoff: the SCS curve number procedure and the Green & Ampt infiltration method. CN is a model for estimation of runoff that was developed by the USDA in the 1950s.This method is quite simple to use, is a function of the precipitation, soil´s permeability, land use and initial water content of the soil. The G&A Method assumes a homogenous soil profile with initial uniform moisture distributed in the profile. As the water infiltrates into de the soil, the model assumes the soil above the wetting front as completely saturated. Most of the SWAT publications use the CN procedure and only few applications using the G&A are available for tropical weather. A major limitation of the curve number method is that rainfall intensity and duration are not considered. The Green-Ampt method is a time-based model and can simulate impacts of rainfall intensity and duration and infiltration processes. The rainfall is more severe in the tropics; the amount of total rain that fall is much greater than in the temperate zone these events have greater influence and impact on erosion processes on the watershed in this region. The research aims to evaluate the differences between the two approaches on a tropical watershed. The study area is the Lobo reservoir located in the boarder of two municipalities (Itirapina and Brotas). This reservoir is currently used for power generation and tourist attraction. The simulation period is from 2002 to 2011. After model calibration using SUFI2 for daily, monthly and yearly time step, the hydrological output data obtained. The daily simulation results for the G&A method showed improvement compared to the CN methdod, but regardless to the high sensitivity of the model to the runoff processes, as the time step increased to monthly and yearly there was little difference between the two approaches.

2013 International SWAT Conference, 2013

The sediment yield and erosion rates are directly affected by soil conditions, rainfall, land and... more The sediment yield and erosion rates are directly affected by soil conditions, rainfall, land and use pattern changes, management practices and soil preservation. A watershed with an excessive sediment yield could present environmental problems related to siltation processes in its rivers and reservoirs. Deposition of sediments at the bottom of reservoirs and dams may result in volume loss that could also become impairment in water availability for irrigation, human consumption and power generation over the years. Dredging of sediments are expensive solutions that accounts only for the problem symptoms and not for their causes. Therefore assessing the amount of sediment and what causes it are needed to the management and planning of water resources. The present study aims to evaluate the applicability of the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) as a study tool for sediment generation estimation for the Lobo reservoir watershed located in the boarder of two Brazilian municipalities. Two simulation periods were selected from1977 to 1985 and from 1996 until 2006. After model calibration using SUFI2 for daily and monthly time step the results for the 1977-1985 scenario was worse compared to the 1996-2006 simulation. Even though the first on presents more stream flow gage stations available the simulation could be biased with measurement errors and limitations of the model in the discretization of highly fragmented land-use watersheds. The research aimed to evaluate these outputs, evaluate strengths and weaknesses of the SWAT model to local conditions and suggest further researches.

3rd IAHR Europe Congress, 2014

8th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF EWRA, 2013

An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood ris... more An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage volumes, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support tools for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a predictive control approach to optimize the release trajectories of reservoir systems over a finite forecast horizon of several days. This approach consists of a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and simulation components based on a pool routing model and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches with a simulation mode and reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order sensitivities. The framework is currently implemented in a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian CEMIG. We discuss preliminary results of the approach for the Queimado reservoir in the River Preto and show that release reductions can efficiently balance flood peaks in downstream tributaries. A requirement for this approach is the availability of sufficient free storage. Whereas the short-term optimization of release reductions primarily depends on observed data, the hydrological model and uncertainty in both, the creation of additional temporary storage by pre-releasing water relies on longer forecasting lead times and numerical weather predictions with larger amounts of forecast uncertainty.

11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics (HIC 2014), 2014

An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood ris... more An important objective of the operation of multipurpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage volumes, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 15 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a simulation model of the water system. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We exemplary present results obtained for the operation of the Tres Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km 2. The focus of our discussion is the impact of forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the deterministic and multi-stage stochastic optimization techniques and show the superiority of the stochastic approach.

6th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM6), 2014

An effective water resources management is important to meet multiple objectives such as water su... more An effective water resources management is important to meet multiple objectives such as water supply, navigation, hydroelectricity generation, environmental obligations and flood protection. By implementing a predictive control approach over a short-term forecast horizon, it is possible to foresee stress conditions or peak flow events and support decision-makers to take actions before these events happen for minimizing their impacts. In the case of flood events, this technique enables the operators to pre-release water from a reservoir for allocating additional storage before the flood event occurs for mitigating flood damage along downstream river reaches. A robust and fast routing model is required in order to obtain quick and reliable estimates of downstream flow conditions related to release changes of the reservoir. In this paper, four different models are assessed concerning their implementation in a predictive control of the Três Marias Reservoir located at the Upper River São Francisco in Brazil: i) a fully dynamic model using the software package SOBEK; ii) a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model with Muskingum-Cunge routing for the flow reaches of interest, the MGB-IPH (Modelo Hidrológico de Grandes Bacias-Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas); iii) a simplified reservoir routing and iv) a diffusive wave model. The last two models are implemented in the RTC-Tool toolbox.In general, we find comparable results between the simplified models in RTC-Tools and the more sophisticated SOBEK model and a lower performance of the MGB model. However, both hydraulic modeling approaches, i.e. the SOBEK model as well as the diffusive wave model in RTC-Tools, suffer from too much numerical diffusion in case of courser grids. In the reservoir routing approach, the introduction of pure advection by time lags offers an efficient cure for excessive numerical diffusion even on courser grids. From the predictive control point of view, this approach shows the best compromise in terms of robustness, computational efficiency and accuracy.

XX Simpósio Brasileiro de Recursos Hídricos (XX SBRH), 2013

Resumo O aproveitamento de água pluvial para abastecimento de cidades pode representar um ganho e... more Resumo O aproveitamento de água pluvial para abastecimento de cidades pode representar um ganho econômico, ambiental e social à população, se adotada pelo poder público como estratégia no gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos. Neste trabalho foi realizado um estudo de caso em um complexo hospitalar no município de São Carlos (SP) visando estimar o potencial de coleta de águas pluviais. Expedita e de baixo custo, a metodologia de análise proposta é viável à aplicação em outras localidades, onde seus aplicadores contem com os requisitos mínimos de suporte computacional. Palavras-chave-Conservação de recursos hídricos, aproveitamento pluvial, complexos hospitalares. Abstract The rainwater harvesting for supply of cities may represent an economic, environmental and social gain for the population, if adopted by the government as a strategy in the management of water resources. This paper presents a case study of a hospital complex in São Carlos (SP), which estimates the potential for rainwater harvesting. Effective and low-cost, the proposed analysis methodology is feasible for use in other locations, where their applicators contains the minimum requirements for computational support. Diversos países e regiões enfrentam problemas em decorrência da má distribuição espaço-temporal dos recursos hídricos. A correta alocação e o gerenciamento de recursos hídricos tornam-se cada vez mais importantes, para evitar ou amenizar os conflitos entre os usuários e a escassez hídrica para determinadas regiões ou períodos. Uma iniciativa que pode ser adotada visando a melhor utilização destes recursos é o aproveitamento de águas pluviais em grandes coberturas, como os complexos hospitalares. Se transformada em lei, onde o poder público tenha o dever de implementar este sistema, os benefícios nos âmbitos social, econômico (a médio prazo) e ambiental são certos. Gould e Nissen-Petersen (1999)

XX Simpósio Brasileiro de Recursos Hídricos (XX SBRH), 2013

Resumo-Dentre os usos múltiplos dos recursos hídricos, destaca-se no Brasil a modalidade da geraç... more Resumo-Dentre os usos múltiplos dos recursos hídricos, destaca-se no Brasil a modalidade da geração hidrelétrica, sendo esta responsável por 67% da atual capacidade instalada. Atualmente no país observa-se uma tendência de redução de oferta de energia devido à situação econômica do país e esgotamento de oportunidades para construção de grandes empreendimentos hidroelétricos. Este cenário introduz a oportunidade de um melhor gerenciamento destes recursos visando otimizar a geração de energia. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo apontar as potencialidades do RTC-Tools, que é um modelo de otimização de reservatórios do DELFT-FEWS, através dele é possível desenvolver soluções adaptadas para problemas através da integração de modelos hidrológicos, banco de dados e modelos de previsão meteorológica. Isto significa que através dos modelos de previsão de chuva de curto-prazo (20 dias) é possível prever a vazão de entrada nos reservatórios para encontrar as melhores oportunidades para reservação ou turbinação. Palavras-Chave-Hidroelétricas, Gerenciamento Integrado de Recursos Hídricos, Otimização. Opportunities on the development of short-term reservoir optimization modeling tools. Abstract-In Brazil the hydropower electric energy production has a prominent role within the water resources multiple uses. Currently the hydropower is responsible for circa 67% of the country´s electric installed capacity. Nowadays there is a energy supply downward trend due to the country´s economic situation and exhaustion of opportunity for large hydropower developments construction. This scenario introduces the opportunity for a better management of the hydric resources in order to optimize power generation. This paper aim to point out the RTC-Tools potentialities, which is a reservoir optimization model from DELFT-FEWS. Through it is possible to develop tailored solutions to regional problems by integrating hydrologic models, databases and weather forecasting models. This means that it´s possible to use short-term rain forecasting models (20 days) to predict the reservoir´s input flows to find the best opportunities for the output flows (reservation or turbination).

XX Simpósio Brasileiro de Recursos Hídricos (XX SBRH), 2013

Resumo-Os processos de erosão e produção de sedimentos constituem fenômenos de grande relevância ... more Resumo-Os processos de erosão e produção de sedimentos constituem fenômenos de grande relevância na atualidade, ocorrendo em grande escala e ocasionando prejuízos ambientais, econômicos e sociais. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo realizar a modelagem da produção de sedimentos na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Itaqueri, localizada nos municípios de Itirapina e Brotas-SP, a qual possui uma extensão de 220 km². Foi utilizado o modelo SWAT para simular as condições hidrológicas e de produção e transporte de sedimentos, fornecendo-se ao modelo dados referentes aos solos, ao uso da terra, dados climáticos e dados topográficos. Por meio da simulação verificou-se que ocorrem na bacia áreas com diferentes comportamentos hidrossedimentológicos, com locais onde a produção anual média de sedimentos chega a 18 t/ha e outras áreas onde esta é próxima de zero. Foi constatado que o Rio Itaqueri contribuiu com 65% do total anual médio de sedimentos que chega ao reservatório. A modelagem permitiu com sucesso obter cenários de perda de solo espacializados, constituindo-se como uma importante ferramenta para o planejamento conservacionista da bacia. Palavras-Chave-SWAT, sedimentologia, modelagem Abstract-Nowadays sediment yield and erosion processes are considered to be of great importance, occurring in large scale and causing environmental, economic and social damages. The present study´s objective is to perform a sediment yield modeling at the river Itaqueri watershed, located between the municipalities of Itirapina and Brotas on the state of São Paulo (SP), which has a length of 220 km². Provided of soil, land use, climatic and topographic data, the SWAT model simulated hydrology and sediment yield. The simulations indicated different hydrosedimentological within the watershed; presenting locations with an average annual sediment yield varying from almost null to 18 t/ha. The river Itaqueri contributes with 65% of the reservoir´s total average annual incoming sediment. Specialized soil loss scenarios where successfully obtained, which are important tools for the watershed conservation management.

IX ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ENGENHARIA DE SEDIMENTOS (IX ENES), 2010

RESUMO-Apesar da grande ocorrência de água no planeta, a escassez desse bem se evidência pela sua... more RESUMO-Apesar da grande ocorrência de água no planeta, a escassez desse bem se evidência pela sua distribuição irregular e pela alta demanda causada pelo crescimento populacional. Visando garantir a oferta hídrica em seus diferentes usos são construídos reservatórios, estes sempre associados a problemas de perda de volume de armazenamento devido ao assoreamento, o qual é quantificado por meio de estudos sedimentológicos, principalmente através de levantamentos batimétricos. Porém é notado certo déficit na literatura nacional quanto aos métodos de se realizar levantamento. Desta forma este trabalho visa evidenciar tal carência e produzir uma breve compilação sobre a abordagem do tema nas obras de maior relevância. Foram analisados onze obras no total, das quais apenas quatro (correspondendo a apenas dois autores diferentes) possuiam uma abordagem profunda sobre levantamentos batimétricos, e ainda sim havendo divergência entre os métodos propostos. ABSTRACT-Despite of the high water availability on the Earth, its scarcity is evidenced by its irregular occurrence and the increasely demand caused by the population growth. Aimed to ensure the water supply for the different uses of water reservoirs are built, and their volume always decreases due the sedimentation processes, this sedimentation are assessed by sedimentology studies, mainly by bathymetric surveys. But the Brazilian water resource literature has a lack on how to conduct a bathymetric survey. So this paper aims highlights this deficiency and show up a compilation of most relevant Brazilian books approaches on the theme. This analyses was made uses eleven different books, and only four (corresponding to just two different authors) have a great approach on bathymetric surveys, and presenting disagreement between the proposed methods.

Document presented at the 8th World Water ForumBrasilia, March 18 to 23 2018, 2018

The publication of this document, during the 8th World Water Forum, is another important step in ... more The publication of this document, during the 8th World Water Forum, is another important step in the joint project by the National Water Agency (ANA), the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) in support of the work carried out by the National Commission for the Sustainable Development Goals (CNODS) referring to SDG 6 - Water and Sanitation.To diagnose the policies, management experien-ces, indicators and implementation proposals regar-ding the targets of Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6), this project envisages three workshop meant to promote dialogue and disseminate knowledge about water management in Brazil in the context of SDG 6. As such, this document was based on inputs from the first of these Workshop, entitled “Sustainable Development Goals and the Challenges for Water and Sanitation Management in Brazil”1. The event was held on February 1, 2018, at the headquarters of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) in Brasília. It was attended by renowned panelists and representatives from government and various segments of society involved in water resources ma-nagement and in implementing 2030 Agenda policies within the country.To afford the reader a better understanding of the current context of water management in Brazil, as well as the measures enacted to promote the 2030 Agenda - specifically regarding SDG 6 -, this document was structured in four parts: the first part provides a brief explanation of the project; the second part introduces water and sanitation management and 2030 Agenda in Brazil; the third part contains a summary of key information from the four thematic panels held during the Workshop; and the last part consists of closing remarks and the next steps for the Project.

Documento apresentado no 8º Fórum Mundial da Água Brasília, 18 a 23 de março de 2018, 2018

A publicação deste documento, durante o 8º Fórum Mundial da Água, é mais um importante pas... more A publicação deste documento, durante o 8º Fórum Mundial da Água, é mais um importante passo de um projeto conjunto da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) com o Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Apli-cada (IPEA), o Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento (PNUD) e o Centro Internacional de Políticas para o Crescimento Inclusivo (IPC-IG) para apoiar os trabalhos da Comissão Nacional para os Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CNODS) com relação ao ODS 6 - Água e Saneamento.Com o intuito de realizar o diagnóstico de políti-cas, experiências de gestão, indicadores e propostas de implantação para as metas do Objetivo de Desen-volvimento Sustentável 6 (ODS 6), o projeto prevê a realização de três de seminários, cujos objetivos são promover diálogos, colher subsídios e difundir conhecimentos sobre a gestão da água no Brasil no contexto do ODS 6. Desta forma, o presente documento foi ela-borado a partir das contribuições do 1º seminário realizado, intitulado “Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável e os Desafios para a Gestão da Água e do Saneamento no Brasil”1. O evento foi realizado no dia 1º de fevereiro de 2018, na sede do Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) em Brasília. Estiveram presentes renomados painelistas e repre-sentantes governamentais e dos diversos setores da sociedade envolvidos tanto na gestão de recursos hídricos, quanto da implementação de políticas da agenda 2030 no País.De forma a permitir ao leitor uma melhor compreensão do contexto atual da gestão da água no Brasil e da promoção da agenda 2030, e espe-cificamente ao ODS 6, este texto está estruturado em quatro partes: a primeira contém uma breve explicação do projeto; a segunda introduz a gestão da água e do saneamento e a agenda 2030 no Brasil; a terceira parte contém relatos das principais informações dos quatro painéis temáticos do Semi-nário; e na última parte apresenta um fechamento e os próximos passos do Projeto.

Desafios da Nação: Volume 2, 2018

Cadernos ODS, 2019

As publicações do Ipea estão disponíveis para download gratuito nos formatos PDF (todas) e EPUB (... more As publicações do Ipea estão disponíveis para download gratuito nos formatos PDF (todas) e EPUB (livros e periódicos). Acesse: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/publicacoes As opiniões emitidas nesta publicação são de exclusiva e inteira responsabilidade dos autores, não exprimindo, necessariamente, o ponto de vista do Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ou do Ministério da Economia. É permitida a reprodução deste texto e dos dados nele contidos, desde que citada a fonte. Reproduções para fins comerciais são proibidas. Governo Federal Ministério da Economia Ministro Paulo Guedes Fundação pública vinculada ao Ministério da Economia, o Ipea fornece suporte técnico e institucional às ações governamentais -possibilitando a formulação de inúmeras políticas públicas e programas de desenvolvimento brasileiros -e disponibiliza, para a sociedade, pesquisas e estudos realizados por seus técnicos.