Kurt J Snapper - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Kurt J Snapper
Deep Blue (University of Michigan), Dec 31, 1972
PubMed, 1974
The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searche... more The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the NCJRS Abstracts Database. ... THE STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION OF A DECISION-THEORISTIC APPROACH TO THE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Oct 1, 1972
An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of inte... more An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of intervals of variable width and fixed probability. The use of such intervals, called credible intervals, permits forecasters to describe the uncertainty inherent in their temperature forecasts in a meaningful, quantitative way. The results of the experiment indicate that forecasters can use credible intervals to quantify this information, information which may be important to potential users of these forecasts. Several recommendations are made regarding credible interval temperature forecasting on an operational basis.
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
Journal of experimental psychology, 1971
Inferences may be based on direct observation of events or on reports from indirect sources about... more Inferences may be based on direct observation of events or on reports from indirect sources about the occurrence of events. A direct observation will be more diagnostic than a report if the source of the report is not completely reliable. Previous studies have investigated 5s' inferences based on either directly observed events or completely reliable reports. This study investigated 5s' inferences based on partially reliable reports. The 5s responded to reduced report reliability by using a formally inappropriate rule that led to overestirnation of the diagnostic impact of a report.
Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Nov 1, 1978
The use of multiple-criteria theory, a means of measuring degree of satisfaction of predetermined... more The use of multiple-criteria theory, a means of measuring degree of satisfaction of predetermined evaluative criteria, quantifying their relative importance, identifying trade offs among them, and determining the best tradeoffs, is proposed for the evaluation of information systems. Use of the proposed method is demonstrated via the evaluation of a hypothetical selective dissemination of information (SDI) system. The illustrative evaluation involves (1) selection of two sets of typically antithetic criteria: efficiency (the inner workings of the system) and effectiveness (its impact on its users); (2) ranking and scoring each criterion in the two sets; (3) selection of alternative configurations of the system under study; (4) scoring the specimen and the alternative systems in terms of the rated efficiency and effectiveness criteria; and (5) identifying the system that scores the highest. The comparative scores for the systems are determined by Ui = [(W′) (Si′) + (W″) (S″i)], where S″i and S′i denote the efficiency and effectiveness scores of the ith alternative, and W′ and W′ are weighting constants that reflect the computed relative importance of efficiency and effectiveness.
Journal of experimental psychology, Mar 1, 1971
An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses ... more An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses and, in addition, to decide how much information about those hypotheses to purchase before making his choice. The optimal amount of information depends, among other things, upon ...
Journal of experimental psychology, Nov 1, 1972
Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies w... more Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies were invariant under additive transformations of the payoff matrix and, second, whether the effect of additive transformations interacted with experimental setting; Two different experimental settings were used: Exp. I used casino players in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Exp. II used students at the University of Michigan. The additive transformations had a significant effect only in Exp. I. 1 The research reported here was sponsored by the Wood Kalb Foundation. Space and facilities for the research were made available by the Four Queens Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. We are deeply grateful to both. We are also grateful to Barbara E. Goodman and Gregory Fischer for their valuable help. ! Requests for reprints should be sent to
Evaluation and Program Planning, 1980
Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program e... more Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program effectiveness. Although this information is intended to be useful, the general literature on evaluations suggests that instances in which evaluations are explicitly used for decision making are rare. This article discusses the use of decision-theoretic evaluation models, and their applicability in practice as well as in principle. A case study is presented from the evaluation of LEAA's Community Anti-Crime Program, in which a decision analysis based on a decision-theoretic evaluation model influenced a programmatic decision which arose during the conduct of the evaluation.
Evaluation, 1974
The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searche... more The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the NCJRS Abstracts Database. ... THE STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION OF A DECISION-THEORISTIC APPROACH TO THE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF ...
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1972
Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strateg... more Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies were invariant under additive transformations of the payoff matrix and, second, whether the effect of additive transformations interacted with experimental setting; Two different ...
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1971
... 2 Requests for reprints should be sent to Kurt J. Snapper, Engineering Psychology Laboratory,... more ... 2 Requests for reprints should be sent to Kurt J. Snapper, Engineering Psychology Laboratory, Insti-tute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan ... that 5s will react to changes in an independent variable, but that they react less than they should (Peterson & Beach, 1967 ...
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1971
An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses ... more An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses and, in addition, to decide how much information about those hypotheses to purchase before making his choice. The optimal amount of information depends, among other things, upon ...
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
Deep Blue (University of Michigan), Dec 31, 1972
PubMed, 1974
The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searche... more The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the NCJRS Abstracts Database. ... THE STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION OF A DECISION-THEORISTIC APPROACH TO THE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF ...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Oct 1, 1972
An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of inte... more An experiment was conducted in which forecasters expressed temperature forecasts in terms of intervals of variable width and fixed probability. The use of such intervals, called credible intervals, permits forecasters to describe the uncertainty inherent in their temperature forecasts in a meaningful, quantitative way. The results of the experiment indicate that forecasters can use credible intervals to quantify this information, information which may be important to potential users of these forecasts. Several recommendations are made regarding credible interval temperature forecasting on an operational basis.
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
Journal of experimental psychology, 1971
Inferences may be based on direct observation of events or on reports from indirect sources about... more Inferences may be based on direct observation of events or on reports from indirect sources about the occurrence of events. A direct observation will be more diagnostic than a report if the source of the report is not completely reliable. Previous studies have investigated 5s' inferences based on either directly observed events or completely reliable reports. This study investigated 5s' inferences based on partially reliable reports. The 5s responded to reduced report reliability by using a formally inappropriate rule that led to overestirnation of the diagnostic impact of a report.
Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Nov 1, 1978
The use of multiple-criteria theory, a means of measuring degree of satisfaction of predetermined... more The use of multiple-criteria theory, a means of measuring degree of satisfaction of predetermined evaluative criteria, quantifying their relative importance, identifying trade offs among them, and determining the best tradeoffs, is proposed for the evaluation of information systems. Use of the proposed method is demonstrated via the evaluation of a hypothetical selective dissemination of information (SDI) system. The illustrative evaluation involves (1) selection of two sets of typically antithetic criteria: efficiency (the inner workings of the system) and effectiveness (its impact on its users); (2) ranking and scoring each criterion in the two sets; (3) selection of alternative configurations of the system under study; (4) scoring the specimen and the alternative systems in terms of the rated efficiency and effectiveness criteria; and (5) identifying the system that scores the highest. The comparative scores for the systems are determined by Ui = [(W′) (Si′) + (W″) (S″i)], where S″i and S′i denote the efficiency and effectiveness scores of the ith alternative, and W′ and W′ are weighting constants that reflect the computed relative importance of efficiency and effectiveness.
Journal of experimental psychology, Mar 1, 1971
An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses ... more An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses and, in addition, to decide how much information about those hypotheses to purchase before making his choice. The optimal amount of information depends, among other things, upon ...
Journal of experimental psychology, Nov 1, 1972
Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies w... more Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies were invariant under additive transformations of the payoff matrix and, second, whether the effect of additive transformations interacted with experimental setting; Two different experimental settings were used: Exp. I used casino players in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Exp. II used students at the University of Michigan. The additive transformations had a significant effect only in Exp. I. 1 The research reported here was sponsored by the Wood Kalb Foundation. Space and facilities for the research were made available by the Four Queens Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. We are deeply grateful to both. We are also grateful to Barbara E. Goodman and Gregory Fischer for their valuable help. ! Requests for reprints should be sent to
Evaluation and Program Planning, 1980
Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program e... more Evaluations are typically designed to provide useful information, including measures of program effectiveness. Although this information is intended to be useful, the general literature on evaluations suggests that instances in which evaluations are explicitly used for decision making are rare. This article discusses the use of decision-theoretic evaluation models, and their applicability in practice as well as in principle. A case study is presented from the evaluation of LEAA's Community Anti-Crime Program, in which a decision analysis based on a decision-theoretic evaluation model influenced a programmatic decision which arose during the conduct of the evaluation.
Evaluation, 1974
The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searche... more The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the NCJRS Abstracts Database. ... THE STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION OF A DECISION-THEORISTIC APPROACH TO THE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF ...
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1972
Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strateg... more Two experiments were conducted to determine, first, whether 5s' information purchase strategies were invariant under additive transformations of the payoff matrix and, second, whether the effect of additive transformations interacted with experimental setting; Two different ...
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1971
... 2 Requests for reprints should be sent to Kurt J. Snapper, Engineering Psychology Laboratory,... more ... 2 Requests for reprints should be sent to Kurt J. Snapper, Engineering Psychology Laboratory, Insti-tute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan ... that 5s will react to changes in an independent variable, but that they react less than they should (Peterson & Beach, 1967 ...
Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1971
An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses ... more An information purchase task requires a decision maker to choose between alter-native hypotheses and, in addition, to decide how much information about those hypotheses to purchase before making his choice. The optimal amount of information depends, among other things, upon ...
This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past fe... more This report includes information conerning demographic trends affecting children over the past few years, the status of children as determined by critical normative data pertaining to their health, education, welfare and the identification and targeting of programs and services to meet the ne!eds of children. Section 1 covers demographic trends in the seventies.; Section II is concerned with general classes of developmental problems and relevant programs; and Section III is a discussion of analytical methods for deriving indices of developmental risk and ways resources might possibly be targeted more efficiently and equitably. Included are many graphs, charts and tables providing such information as fertility and mortality rates, social and economic data on families, and data on day care facilities, preschool and school enrollment, community services, health, nutrition, child abuse, juvenile delinquency and welfare. Also included is a list of federal programs.
We tend to believe that the sciences are progressive, in the sense that theories, operationalized... more We tend to believe that the sciences are progressive, in the sense that theories, operationalized models, and quantitative methods create information that will have material value in future real-world applications. The prospect of future material value is implicit in rationalizing current program costs. Operationally this rationale means that if a program creates elements of information, denoted {I}, doing so will cause a payoff in the future that is realized from future outcomes-that could not have occurred but for future decisions taken only because of the {I}. To illustrate: if {I} were referred to research on topological optimization, we would find that the payoff of its application to solar panel designs was improved designs and efficiencies; but, if {I} were referred to designing pathogens, its payoff would be improved effectiveness.