Kaoru Takara - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Kaoru Takara

Research paper thumbnail of Extending a Distributed Hydrological Model to Use Globally Available Topographic Data

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Research paper thumbnail of A New Hydrologic Res Ponse Function Physically Derived from Dem and Remote Sensing Image

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Research paper thumbnail of Real-time Updating of State Variables in a Distributed Hydrological Model

Synopsis When a distributed hydrological model is used for real-time flood prediction, how to upd... more Synopsis When a distributed hydrological model is used for real-time flood prediction, how to update the spatially distributed state variables is an important issue to obtain accurate prediction. This study introduces three methods to update the state variables in a distributed hydrological model during a simulation. The introduced methods here, two kinds of ratio method, consider a spatial distribution of hydrologic variables in a basin. With the ratio method, state variables are updated successfully and better simulation results can be obtained than when the variables are not updated.

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Research paper thumbnail of A Physically-based Hydrologic Response Function Derived From DEMs and Remote Sensing Image

Synopsis This study proposes a physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph by adop... more Synopsis This study proposes a physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph by adopting the concept of IUH, which is derived based on physical runoff mechanism by combining DEM s, remote sensing and kinematic wave approximation. The heterogeneity of the watershed can be well represented by DEMs, remotely sensed data and kinematic wave approximation in the proposed physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph. As for ungauged area or the area with poor hydrologic record, the geomorphologic IUH proposed in the study is expected to be a reference for water resources designing and evaluation.

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Research paper thumbnail of Stochastic Modeling on Error Structure of Real-Time Predicted Rainfall and Rainfall Field Generation

Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 2004

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Research paper thumbnail of Mechanism of two rapid and long-runout landslides in the 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using a ring-shear apparatus and computer simulation (LS-RAPID)

Landslides, 2016

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Research paper thumbnail of Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices

Climate Dynamics, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Modelling Shallow Landslide Risk Using GIS and a Distributed Hydro-geotechnical Model

Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry, 2015

GIS and distributed hydrological models are important tools for shallow landslide prediction, par... more GIS and distributed hydrological models are important tools for shallow landslide prediction, particularly as such disasters are exacerbated by global change driven changes in precipitation regimes. The main objective of this chapter is to outline a detailed methodology for shallow landslide risk assessment using GIS and a hydrological model. We have developed a method to assess shallow landslide risk using GIS tools and a distributed hydrological model and further used this method to analyze the probability of shallow landslides in a case study. The physically based distributed landslide model was developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model combined with an infinite slope stability module. Application of the model to assess shallow landslide risk using rainfall data for Kyushu Island shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on the driving variables that trigger shallow landslides. The modeling system has broad applicability for shallow landslide prediction and warning.

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Research paper thumbnail of The Simulation of a Deep Large-Scale Landslide Near Aratozawa Dam Using a 3.0 MPa Undrained Dynamic Loading Ring Shear Apparatus

Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment, 2014

ABSTRACT The translational block glide of deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam that ... more ABSTRACT The translational block glide of deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam that occurred in the middle of 2008 is of great importance for detailed study. Aratozawa landslide had resulted from landform deformation and the subsequent change of watershed geomorphology at the upstream part of Aratozawa reservoir. The evidence of this phenomena was revealed during a site investigation in November 2012, as several natural reservoirs (lakes) formed in the cavities between ridges and the depression zone in main block slide. Aratozawa landslide located in the Ohu Mountains basically triggered by the earthquake which had a peak ground acceleration of more than 1,000 gal. In addition, the possibility of reactivated landslides in surrounding terrains near Aratozawa dam has resulted in the hypothesis that the 2008 event was one sequence of the dynamic-geomorphological activity in this mountainous area within a period of hundred years. In this paper, the mechanism of the deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam is analysed through a physical laboratory experiment. Deep landslide simulation is conducted by applying high normal stress to address the assumed slip surface of 150 m depth in the Aratozawa case. The 3.0 MPa undrained dynamic loading ring shear apparatus with the high pore-water pressure controlled is used to meet the criteria of deep-seated landslide of Aratozawa. The effect of groundwater fluctuation and the inter-linkage with the reservoir in the Aratozawa dam was found to be the main concern besides the peak ground acceleration based on the 2008 landslide event. Results also show that there was no significant deformation in the Aratozawa dam area when the large Tohoku earthquake, magnitude 9.0, in 2011. Indication is, that the slide blocks, ridges and mass depression due to the 2008 event are already stable. However, the slope and soil mass movement are still possible in the future.

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Research paper thumbnail of The 4th World Landslide Forum: Landslide Research and Risk Reduction for Advancing the Culture of Living with Natural Hazards

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of Applicability of Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model in a Humid Tropical River Basin

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 2019

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Research paper thumbnail of Applying Kalman Filter into a Distributed Hydrological Model for Real-time Updating and Prediction

칼만필터 알고리즘을 분포형 유출모형에 적용하였다 관측 유량과 상태변수인 유역내 저류량을 갱신하고 . 자 를 도입하였고 갱신된 저류량과 모형에 의해 모의된 저류량의 비율을 유역... more 칼만필터 알고리즘을 분포형 유출모형에 적용하였다 관측 유량과 상태변수인 유역내 저류량을 갱신하고 . 자 를 도입하였고 갱신된 저류량과 모형에 의해 모의된 저류량의 비율을 유역 내 각 지점의 수위 Q-S curve , 에 적용하므로써 분포화 된 상태변수를 효율적으로 갱신하였다 갱신된 상태변수와 상태변수 오차의 시간갱 . 신은 몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 모의하였다.

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Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Cycle in a Humid Tropical River Basin in Sumatra, Indonesia

In Sumatra in Indonesia, large-scale plantations of oil palm and acacia trees have caused 50 % re... more In Sumatra in Indonesia, large-scale plantations of oil palm and acacia trees have caused 50 % reduction of natural forests in the 25 years between 1985 to 2009. Both climate and land cover changes may impact on regional water cycle, which potentially leads to increase the risk of flood and drought. Therefore, hydrologic process understandings and their representations by hydrological models are important steps for achieving adequate water resources and water-related disaster management. Among various hydrological processes, rainfallrunoff processes in humid tropics, which is typically characterized by flow in a deep soil layer, have been poorly understood. This study conducts field investigations and modeling to simulate rainfall-runoff and flood inundation processes at the river basin scale in the Batanghari River basin in Sumatra, Indonesia. By reflecting such conditions in the model, it conducts a long-term hydrologic simulation with climate change projected based on MRI-AGCM (2...

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Research paper thumbnail of Quantile Streamflow Estimates Based on the Neyman- Scott Rainfall Model

Flood control decisions in areas that are poorly gauged can be based on synthetic data if and onl... more Flood control decisions in areas that are poorly gauged can be based on synthetic data if and only if such data can be made consistent to the historical counterpart. However, established methods that do not involve synthetic data are preferred for this problem such as the procedure adopted by the Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT). Here, we develop an alternative methodology based on the Neyman-Scott clustered Poisson rectangular pulse rainfall model (NSM) suited for rainfall extreme value consistency. It is shown that simulated streamflow based on the NSM rainfall is a competent estimate to extreme flood magnitudes. We observe that the latter method is more rational due to its careful emphasis on extreme value rainfall.

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Research paper thumbnail of Achieving Water Security in Global Change: Dealing with Associated Risk in Water Investment

Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Complementary Information for Reducing Parameter Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

A natural rainfall-runoff process is conceptualized (or modeled) by hydrologist's perception ... more A natural rainfall-runoff process is conceptualized (or modeled) by hydrologist's perception or experience in mathematical form. These rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated and verified based on streamflow data at the outlet of interest. The streamflow data, aggregated response over a catchment is obviously required but is not sufficient information to identify conceptual parameters of such models since numerous parameter combinations can often result in either identical model performance measures or indistinguishable hydrographs. One of the efficient techniques to enhance the parameter identification is to use additional constraints (or complementary information) in model calibration. This study aims to exemplify the equifinality problem due to insufficiency of model identification based only on streamflow data in distributed rainfall-runoff modeling. Moreover, a potential use of additional constraints provided by a computational tracer method is presented in order to r...

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Tone River Basin, Japan, Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Output

Journal of Disaster Research, 2009

We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the T... more We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the Tone River basin using output from a super-high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model, AGCM20, having 20-km spatial resolution and 1-hour temporal resolution. AGCM20 is run on the Earth Simulator and being developed under the Japanese government’s Kakushin21 program. AGCM20 has an advantage in simulating orographic rainfall and frontal rain bands, so we used its output to analyze Tone River basin water resources. The basin covers 16,840 km2and the main channel is 322 km long from its source to the Pacific Ocean. AGCM20 outputs hourly precipitation and daily variables such as snowfall, rainfall, snowmelt, evaporation, and transpiration for a present period, 1979-1998, and a projected period, 2075-2094. A comparison of these two periods showed that snow-related variables will decrease and all others will increase. Based on a comparison of ordered daily precipitation curves...

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Research paper thumbnail of NRCS Curve Number Employed Hydrologic Homogeneous Regionalization in Regional Flood Frequency Analysis

Estimation of extreme flood for different return period is required in design of various hydrauli... more Estimation of extreme flood for different return period is required in design of various hydraulic structures. Regional flood frequency analysis is an effective method for estimating such extreme flood. Delineation of hydrologic homogeneous regions is key step in success of regional flood frequency analysis. This study deals hydrologic regionalization of Nepalese territory. Cluster analysis, a multivariate technique, is generally used to identify objectively hydrological regions. This work addresses the difficulty of allocating suitable weight to different clustering attributes by employing NRCS runoff curve number. On superimposing monsoon rainfall pattern map over runoff curve number map, five hydrologic regions were proposed. L-moment based regional hydrologic homogeneity test led finalization of hydrological homogeneous regions. Estimation of extreme flood for different return periods is required in design and planning of various water related structures. This extreme flood is p...

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Research paper thumbnail of Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Area-Frequency Curves Using Scaling Properties of Hourly Rainfall Data

Many hydrological and meteorological applications require knowledge about spatial and temporal va... more Many hydrological and meteorological applications require knowledge about spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall over an area. The intensity of point precipitation is only applicable for relatively small areas. For larger areas, design rainfall needs to be converted to average areal depths. Areal Reduction Factors (ARFs) have been commonly used to obtain this transformation. To estimate ARFs at sparely gauged basins, to derive the Intensity- Duration-Area-Frequency (IDAF), it is essential to incorporate the scaling properties of rainfall in time and space. The IDAF curves are determined for the evaluation of design rainfall using a scaling approach. The variabilities of annual maximum rainfall intensity in area and duration are represented through the scaling properties in time and space. Thus the scaling relationships of mean rainfall intensity with area and duration are derived using the concepts of scaling properties. Using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) the authors obta...

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Research paper thumbnail of Scaling of slope, upslope area, and soil water deficit: Implications for transferability and regionalization in topographic index modeling

Water Resources Research, 2008

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Research paper thumbnail of Extending a Distributed Hydrological Model to Use Globally Available Topographic Data

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of A New Hydrologic Res Ponse Function Physically Derived from Dem and Remote Sensing Image

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Real-time Updating of State Variables in a Distributed Hydrological Model

Synopsis When a distributed hydrological model is used for real-time flood prediction, how to upd... more Synopsis When a distributed hydrological model is used for real-time flood prediction, how to update the spatially distributed state variables is an important issue to obtain accurate prediction. This study introduces three methods to update the state variables in a distributed hydrological model during a simulation. The introduced methods here, two kinds of ratio method, consider a spatial distribution of hydrologic variables in a basin. With the ratio method, state variables are updated successfully and better simulation results can be obtained than when the variables are not updated.

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Research paper thumbnail of A Physically-based Hydrologic Response Function Derived From DEMs and Remote Sensing Image

Synopsis This study proposes a physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph by adop... more Synopsis This study proposes a physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph by adopting the concept of IUH, which is derived based on physical runoff mechanism by combining DEM s, remote sensing and kinematic wave approximation. The heterogeneity of the watershed can be well represented by DEMs, remotely sensed data and kinematic wave approximation in the proposed physically-based distributed instantaneous unit hydrograph. As for ungauged area or the area with poor hydrologic record, the geomorphologic IUH proposed in the study is expected to be a reference for water resources designing and evaluation.

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Research paper thumbnail of Stochastic Modeling on Error Structure of Real-Time Predicted Rainfall and Rainfall Field Generation

Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 2004

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Research paper thumbnail of Mechanism of two rapid and long-runout landslides in the 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using a ring-shear apparatus and computer simulation (LS-RAPID)

Landslides, 2016

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Research paper thumbnail of Changes of precipitation amounts and extremes over Japan between 1901 and 2012 and their connection to climate indices

Climate Dynamics, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Modelling Shallow Landslide Risk Using GIS and a Distributed Hydro-geotechnical Model

Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry, 2015

GIS and distributed hydrological models are important tools for shallow landslide prediction, par... more GIS and distributed hydrological models are important tools for shallow landslide prediction, particularly as such disasters are exacerbated by global change driven changes in precipitation regimes. The main objective of this chapter is to outline a detailed methodology for shallow landslide risk assessment using GIS and a hydrological model. We have developed a method to assess shallow landslide risk using GIS tools and a distributed hydrological model and further used this method to analyze the probability of shallow landslides in a case study. The physically based distributed landslide model was developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model combined with an infinite slope stability module. Application of the model to assess shallow landslide risk using rainfall data for Kyushu Island shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on the driving variables that trigger shallow landslides. The modeling system has broad applicability for shallow landslide prediction and warning.

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Research paper thumbnail of The Simulation of a Deep Large-Scale Landslide Near Aratozawa Dam Using a 3.0 MPa Undrained Dynamic Loading Ring Shear Apparatus

Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment, 2014

ABSTRACT The translational block glide of deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam that ... more ABSTRACT The translational block glide of deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam that occurred in the middle of 2008 is of great importance for detailed study. Aratozawa landslide had resulted from landform deformation and the subsequent change of watershed geomorphology at the upstream part of Aratozawa reservoir. The evidence of this phenomena was revealed during a site investigation in November 2012, as several natural reservoirs (lakes) formed in the cavities between ridges and the depression zone in main block slide. Aratozawa landslide located in the Ohu Mountains basically triggered by the earthquake which had a peak ground acceleration of more than 1,000 gal. In addition, the possibility of reactivated landslides in surrounding terrains near Aratozawa dam has resulted in the hypothesis that the 2008 event was one sequence of the dynamic-geomorphological activity in this mountainous area within a period of hundred years. In this paper, the mechanism of the deep and large-scale landslide near Aratozawa dam is analysed through a physical laboratory experiment. Deep landslide simulation is conducted by applying high normal stress to address the assumed slip surface of 150 m depth in the Aratozawa case. The 3.0 MPa undrained dynamic loading ring shear apparatus with the high pore-water pressure controlled is used to meet the criteria of deep-seated landslide of Aratozawa. The effect of groundwater fluctuation and the inter-linkage with the reservoir in the Aratozawa dam was found to be the main concern besides the peak ground acceleration based on the 2008 landslide event. Results also show that there was no significant deformation in the Aratozawa dam area when the large Tohoku earthquake, magnitude 9.0, in 2011. Indication is, that the slide blocks, ridges and mass depression due to the 2008 event are already stable. However, the slope and soil mass movement are still possible in the future.

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Research paper thumbnail of The 4th World Landslide Forum: Landslide Research and Risk Reduction for Advancing the Culture of Living with Natural Hazards

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017

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Research paper thumbnail of Applicability of Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model in a Humid Tropical River Basin

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 2019

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Applying Kalman Filter into a Distributed Hydrological Model for Real-time Updating and Prediction

칼만필터 알고리즘을 분포형 유출모형에 적용하였다 관측 유량과 상태변수인 유역내 저류량을 갱신하고 . 자 를 도입하였고 갱신된 저류량과 모형에 의해 모의된 저류량의 비율을 유역... more 칼만필터 알고리즘을 분포형 유출모형에 적용하였다 관측 유량과 상태변수인 유역내 저류량을 갱신하고 . 자 를 도입하였고 갱신된 저류량과 모형에 의해 모의된 저류량의 비율을 유역 내 각 지점의 수위 Q-S curve , 에 적용하므로써 분포화 된 상태변수를 효율적으로 갱신하였다 갱신된 상태변수와 상태변수 오차의 시간갱 . 신은 몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 모의하였다.

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Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Cycle in a Humid Tropical River Basin in Sumatra, Indonesia

In Sumatra in Indonesia, large-scale plantations of oil palm and acacia trees have caused 50 % re... more In Sumatra in Indonesia, large-scale plantations of oil palm and acacia trees have caused 50 % reduction of natural forests in the 25 years between 1985 to 2009. Both climate and land cover changes may impact on regional water cycle, which potentially leads to increase the risk of flood and drought. Therefore, hydrologic process understandings and their representations by hydrological models are important steps for achieving adequate water resources and water-related disaster management. Among various hydrological processes, rainfallrunoff processes in humid tropics, which is typically characterized by flow in a deep soil layer, have been poorly understood. This study conducts field investigations and modeling to simulate rainfall-runoff and flood inundation processes at the river basin scale in the Batanghari River basin in Sumatra, Indonesia. By reflecting such conditions in the model, it conducts a long-term hydrologic simulation with climate change projected based on MRI-AGCM (2...

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Research paper thumbnail of Quantile Streamflow Estimates Based on the Neyman- Scott Rainfall Model

Flood control decisions in areas that are poorly gauged can be based on synthetic data if and onl... more Flood control decisions in areas that are poorly gauged can be based on synthetic data if and only if such data can be made consistent to the historical counterpart. However, established methods that do not involve synthetic data are preferred for this problem such as the procedure adopted by the Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT). Here, we develop an alternative methodology based on the Neyman-Scott clustered Poisson rectangular pulse rainfall model (NSM) suited for rainfall extreme value consistency. It is shown that simulated streamflow based on the NSM rainfall is a competent estimate to extreme flood magnitudes. We observe that the latter method is more rational due to its careful emphasis on extreme value rainfall.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Achieving Water Security in Global Change: Dealing with Associated Risk in Water Investment

Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Complementary Information for Reducing Parameter Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

A natural rainfall-runoff process is conceptualized (or modeled) by hydrologist's perception ... more A natural rainfall-runoff process is conceptualized (or modeled) by hydrologist's perception or experience in mathematical form. These rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated and verified based on streamflow data at the outlet of interest. The streamflow data, aggregated response over a catchment is obviously required but is not sufficient information to identify conceptual parameters of such models since numerous parameter combinations can often result in either identical model performance measures or indistinguishable hydrographs. One of the efficient techniques to enhance the parameter identification is to use additional constraints (or complementary information) in model calibration. This study aims to exemplify the equifinality problem due to insufficiency of model identification based only on streamflow data in distributed rainfall-runoff modeling. Moreover, a potential use of additional constraints provided by a computational tracer method is presented in order to r...

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Tone River Basin, Japan, Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Output

Journal of Disaster Research, 2009

We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the T... more We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the Tone River basin using output from a super-high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model, AGCM20, having 20-km spatial resolution and 1-hour temporal resolution. AGCM20 is run on the Earth Simulator and being developed under the Japanese government’s Kakushin21 program. AGCM20 has an advantage in simulating orographic rainfall and frontal rain bands, so we used its output to analyze Tone River basin water resources. The basin covers 16,840 km2and the main channel is 322 km long from its source to the Pacific Ocean. AGCM20 outputs hourly precipitation and daily variables such as snowfall, rainfall, snowmelt, evaporation, and transpiration for a present period, 1979-1998, and a projected period, 2075-2094. A comparison of these two periods showed that snow-related variables will decrease and all others will increase. Based on a comparison of ordered daily precipitation curves...

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Research paper thumbnail of NRCS Curve Number Employed Hydrologic Homogeneous Regionalization in Regional Flood Frequency Analysis

Estimation of extreme flood for different return period is required in design of various hydrauli... more Estimation of extreme flood for different return period is required in design of various hydraulic structures. Regional flood frequency analysis is an effective method for estimating such extreme flood. Delineation of hydrologic homogeneous regions is key step in success of regional flood frequency analysis. This study deals hydrologic regionalization of Nepalese territory. Cluster analysis, a multivariate technique, is generally used to identify objectively hydrological regions. This work addresses the difficulty of allocating suitable weight to different clustering attributes by employing NRCS runoff curve number. On superimposing monsoon rainfall pattern map over runoff curve number map, five hydrologic regions were proposed. L-moment based regional hydrologic homogeneity test led finalization of hydrological homogeneous regions. Estimation of extreme flood for different return periods is required in design and planning of various water related structures. This extreme flood is p...

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Research paper thumbnail of Estimation of Intensity-Duration-Area-Frequency Curves Using Scaling Properties of Hourly Rainfall Data

Many hydrological and meteorological applications require knowledge about spatial and temporal va... more Many hydrological and meteorological applications require knowledge about spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall over an area. The intensity of point precipitation is only applicable for relatively small areas. For larger areas, design rainfall needs to be converted to average areal depths. Areal Reduction Factors (ARFs) have been commonly used to obtain this transformation. To estimate ARFs at sparely gauged basins, to derive the Intensity- Duration-Area-Frequency (IDAF), it is essential to incorporate the scaling properties of rainfall in time and space. The IDAF curves are determined for the evaluation of design rainfall using a scaling approach. The variabilities of annual maximum rainfall intensity in area and duration are represented through the scaling properties in time and space. Thus the scaling relationships of mean rainfall intensity with area and duration are derived using the concepts of scaling properties. Using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) the authors obta...

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Research paper thumbnail of Scaling of slope, upslope area, and soil water deficit: Implications for transferability and regionalization in topographic index modeling

Water Resources Research, 2008

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