John Kaplan - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by John Kaplan
Weather and Forecasting, Oct 1, 2020
The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensifi... more The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the Western Hemisphere is examined. All rapid intensification events in the part of the Western Hemisphere north of the equator and the MJO phase and amplitude are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere, though rapid intensification appears most likely during a neutral MJO phase. The addition of this information to an operational statistical rapid intensification forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts.
<p>Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is difficult to predict and poses a formidable ... more <p>Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. While a warm upper-ocean is well-known to favor RI, the role of salinity is less clear. In this study, using a suite of observations, we demonstrate that the subsurface oceans' influence on Atlantic hurricane RI exhibits two regimes. In the western region, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, temperature stratification plays an important role in hurricane RI with little impact from salinity. On the other hand, in the eastern region dominated by the Amazon-Orinoco plume, salinity stratification prominently impacts RI. While a weak temperature stratification aids cold wake reduction for hurricanes in the western region, a strong salinity stratification causes less hurricane-induced mixing and surface cooling in the eastern region. Finally, in both regions, the relevance of the cold wake, and consequently the ocean sub-surface, is enhanced during RI compared to weaker intensification.</p>
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2021
Since 2005, NOAA has conducted the annual Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), led by scienti... more Since 2005, NOAA has conducted the annual Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), led by scientists from the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. They partner with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, who maintain and operate the WP-3D and Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and NCEP’s National Hurricane Center and Environmental Modeling Center, who task airborne missions to gather data used by forecasters for analysis and forecasting and for ingest into operational numerical weather prediction models. The goal of IFEX is to improve tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts using an integrated approach of analyzing observations from aircraft, initializing and evaluating forecast models with those observations, and developing new airborne instrumentation and observing strategies targeted at filling observing gaps and maximizing the data’s impact in model forecasts. This summary article not only highlights recent IFEX contribu...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2020
Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable t... more Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. A warm upper ocean is well known to favor RI, but the role of ocean salinity is less clear. This study shows a strong inverse relationship between salinity and TC RI in the eastern Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic due to near-surface freshening from the Amazon–Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce a much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared to more weakly intensifying storms, in part due to a reduction in SST cooling caused by salinity stratification. This reduction has a noticeable positive impact on TCs undergoing RI, but the impact of salinity on more weakly intensifying storms is insignificant. These statistical results are confirmed through experiments with an ocean mixed layer model, which show that the salinity-induced reduction in SST cold wakes increases significantly as the storm’s intensification rate incr...
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Mar 1, 2023
While there has been some improvement in operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting ... more While there has been some improvement in operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting skill in recent years, TC intensity forecasts remain considerably less skillful than that TC track forecasts (Simpson et al. 2003). More importantly, the capability of predicting rapid intensification (RI) remains inadequate as evidenced by the unexpected RI of several recent Atlantic (e.g., Keith (2002), and Lilly (2002)) and East Pacific (Kenna (2002)) hurricanes. This lack of skill has prompted the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to rank improving the capability to forecast episodes of rapid intensification (RI) as one of their highest forecast priorities (Rappaport, personal communication). Since current operational intensity prediction models have not yet demonstrated the ability to reliably predict RI events, Kaplan and DeMaria (2003) have developed a simple RI index that can be used to estimate the probability of RI for a 24-h period using output from the SHIPS model. The RI index...
Monthly Weather Review, 1993
Monthly Weather Review
The relationship between deep-layer environmental wind shear direction and tropical cyclone (TC) ... more The relationship between deep-layer environmental wind shear direction and tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer thermodynamic structures is explored in multiple independent databases. Analyses derived from the tropical cyclone buoy database (TCBD) show that when TCs experience northerly component shear, the 10-m equivalent potential temperature θe tends to be more symmetric than when shear has a southerly component. The primary asymmetry in θe in TCs experiencing southerly component shear is radially outward from 2 times the radius of maximum wind speed, with the left-of-shear quadrants having lower θe by 4–6 K than the right-of-shear quadrants. As with the TCBD, an asymmetric distribution of 10-m θe for TCs experiencing southerly component shear and a symmetric distribution of 10-m θe for TCs experiencing northerly component shear was found using composite observations from dropsondes. These analyses show that differences in the degree of symmetry near the sea surface extend throug...
Weather and Forecasting
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropica... more The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropical cyclone track, intensity, and wind structure forecasts, and as baselines for the evaluation of forecast skill. A set of the simpler models, collectively known as the NHC guidance suite, is maintained by NHC. The models comprising the guidance suite are briefly described and evaluated, with details provided for those that have not been documented previously. Decay-SHIFOR is a modified version of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) model that includes decay over land; this modification improves the SHIFOR forecasts through about 96 h. T-CLIPER, a climatology and persistence model that predicts track and intensity using a trajectory approach, has error characteristics similar to those of CLIPER and D-SHIFOR but can be run to any forecast length. The Trajectory and Beta model (TAB), another trajectory track model, applies a gridpoint spatial filter to smooth winds from th...
The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center (NHC/TPC) has identified obtaining guida... more The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center (NHC/TPC) has identified obtaining guidance on the timing and magnitude
Weather and Forecasting, 2015
New multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensific... more New multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction models are developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These are the linear-discriminant analysis–based Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index (SHIPS-RII), logistic regression, and Bayesian statistical RI models. Consensus RI models derived by averaging the three individual RI model probability forecasts are also generated. A verification of the cross-validated forecasts of the above RI models conducted for the 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h lead times indicates that these models generally exhibit skill relative to climatological forecasts, with the eastern Pacific models providing somewhat more skill than the Atlantic ones and the consensus versions providing more skill than the individual models. A verification of the deterministic RI model forecasts indicates that the operational intensity guidance exhibits some li...
Weather and Forecasting, 2015
The probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic ... more The probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins is examined here using a series of logistic regression models trained on environmental and infrared satellite-derived features. The environmental predictors are based on averaged values over a 24-h period following the forecast time. These models are compared against equivalent models enhanced with additional TC predictors created from passive satellite microwave imagery (MI). Leave-one-year-out cross validation on the developmental dataset shows that the inclusion of MI-based predictors yields more skillful RI models for a variety of RI and intensity thresholds. Compared with the baseline forecast skill of the non-MI-based RI models, the relative skill improvements from including MI-based predictors range from 10.6% to 44.9%. Using archived real-time data during the period 2004–13, evaluation of simulated real-time models is also carried out. Unlike in t...
Weather and Forecasting, 2003
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)... more The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) databases are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In this study, rapid intensification (RI) is defined as approximately the 95th percentile of over-water 24-h intensity changes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that developed from 1989 to 2000. This equates to a maximum sustained surface wind speed increase of 15.4 m s Ϫ1 (30 kt) over a 24-h period. It is shown that 31% of all tropical cyclones, 60% of all hurricanes, 83% of all major hurricanes, and all category 4 and 5 hurricanes underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. The mean initial (t ϭ 0 h) conditions of cases that undergo RI are compared to those of the non-RI cases. These comparisons show that the RI cases form farther south and west and have a more westward component of motion than the non-RI cases. In addition, the RI cases are typically intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12 h than the non-RI cases. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are further from their maximum potential intensity and form in regions with warmer SSTs and higher lower-tropospheric relative humidity than the non-RI cases. The RI cases are also embedded in regions where the upper-level flow is more easterly and the vertical shear and upper-level forcing from troughs or cold lows is weaker than is observed for the non-RI cases. Finally, the RI cases tend to move with the flow within a higher layer of the atmosphere than the non-RI cases. A simple technique for estimating the probability of RI is described. Estimates of the probability of RI are determined using the predictors for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. Estimates of the probability of RI are also determined by combining the five predictors that had the highest individual probabilities of RI. The probability of RI increases from 1% to 41% when the total number of thresholds satisfied increases from zero to five. This simple technique was used in real time for the first time during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season as part of the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT).
Weather and Forecasting, 2010
A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific bas... more A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The RII uses large-scale predictors from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to estimate the probability of rapid intensification (RI) over the succeeding 24 h utilizing linear discriminant analysis. Separate versions of the RII are developed for the 25-, 30-, and 35-kt RI thresholds, which represent the 90th (88th), 94th (92nd), and 97th (94th) percentiles of 24-h overwater intensity changes of tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic (eastern North Pacific) basins from 1989 to 2006, respectively. The revised RII became operational at the NHC prior to the 2008 hurricane season. The relative importance of the individual RI predictors is shown to differ between the two basins. Specifically, the previous 12-h intensity change, upper-level divergence, and vertical shear have the highest weights for the Atlantic basin, while the previous 12-h intensity...
Weather and Forecasting, 1994
Weather and Forecasting, Oct 1, 2020
The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensifi... more The relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the Western Hemisphere is examined. All rapid intensification events in the part of the Western Hemisphere north of the equator and the MJO phase and amplitude are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere, though rapid intensification appears most likely during a neutral MJO phase. The addition of this information to an operational statistical rapid intensification forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts.
<p>Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is difficult to predict and poses a formidable ... more <p>Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. While a warm upper-ocean is well-known to favor RI, the role of salinity is less clear. In this study, using a suite of observations, we demonstrate that the subsurface oceans' influence on Atlantic hurricane RI exhibits two regimes. In the western region, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, temperature stratification plays an important role in hurricane RI with little impact from salinity. On the other hand, in the eastern region dominated by the Amazon-Orinoco plume, salinity stratification prominently impacts RI. While a weak temperature stratification aids cold wake reduction for hurricanes in the western region, a strong salinity stratification causes less hurricane-induced mixing and surface cooling in the eastern region. Finally, in both regions, the relevance of the cold wake, and consequently the ocean sub-surface, is enhanced during RI compared to weaker intensification.</p>
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2021
Since 2005, NOAA has conducted the annual Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), led by scienti... more Since 2005, NOAA has conducted the annual Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), led by scientists from the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. They partner with NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, who maintain and operate the WP-3D and Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and NCEP’s National Hurricane Center and Environmental Modeling Center, who task airborne missions to gather data used by forecasters for analysis and forecasting and for ingest into operational numerical weather prediction models. The goal of IFEX is to improve tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts using an integrated approach of analyzing observations from aircraft, initializing and evaluating forecast models with those observations, and developing new airborne instrumentation and observing strategies targeted at filling observing gaps and maximizing the data’s impact in model forecasts. This summary article not only highlights recent IFEX contribu...
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2020
Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable t... more Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. A warm upper ocean is well known to favor RI, but the role of ocean salinity is less clear. This study shows a strong inverse relationship between salinity and TC RI in the eastern Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic due to near-surface freshening from the Amazon–Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce a much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared to more weakly intensifying storms, in part due to a reduction in SST cooling caused by salinity stratification. This reduction has a noticeable positive impact on TCs undergoing RI, but the impact of salinity on more weakly intensifying storms is insignificant. These statistical results are confirmed through experiments with an ocean mixed layer model, which show that the salinity-induced reduction in SST cold wakes increases significantly as the storm’s intensification rate incr...
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Mar 1, 2023
While there has been some improvement in operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting ... more While there has been some improvement in operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting skill in recent years, TC intensity forecasts remain considerably less skillful than that TC track forecasts (Simpson et al. 2003). More importantly, the capability of predicting rapid intensification (RI) remains inadequate as evidenced by the unexpected RI of several recent Atlantic (e.g., Keith (2002), and Lilly (2002)) and East Pacific (Kenna (2002)) hurricanes. This lack of skill has prompted the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to rank improving the capability to forecast episodes of rapid intensification (RI) as one of their highest forecast priorities (Rappaport, personal communication). Since current operational intensity prediction models have not yet demonstrated the ability to reliably predict RI events, Kaplan and DeMaria (2003) have developed a simple RI index that can be used to estimate the probability of RI for a 24-h period using output from the SHIPS model. The RI index...
Monthly Weather Review, 1993
Monthly Weather Review
The relationship between deep-layer environmental wind shear direction and tropical cyclone (TC) ... more The relationship between deep-layer environmental wind shear direction and tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer thermodynamic structures is explored in multiple independent databases. Analyses derived from the tropical cyclone buoy database (TCBD) show that when TCs experience northerly component shear, the 10-m equivalent potential temperature θe tends to be more symmetric than when shear has a southerly component. The primary asymmetry in θe in TCs experiencing southerly component shear is radially outward from 2 times the radius of maximum wind speed, with the left-of-shear quadrants having lower θe by 4–6 K than the right-of-shear quadrants. As with the TCBD, an asymmetric distribution of 10-m θe for TCs experiencing southerly component shear and a symmetric distribution of 10-m θe for TCs experiencing northerly component shear was found using composite observations from dropsondes. These analyses show that differences in the degree of symmetry near the sea surface extend throug...
Weather and Forecasting
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropica... more The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses a variety of guidance models for its operational tropical cyclone track, intensity, and wind structure forecasts, and as baselines for the evaluation of forecast skill. A set of the simpler models, collectively known as the NHC guidance suite, is maintained by NHC. The models comprising the guidance suite are briefly described and evaluated, with details provided for those that have not been documented previously. Decay-SHIFOR is a modified version of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) model that includes decay over land; this modification improves the SHIFOR forecasts through about 96 h. T-CLIPER, a climatology and persistence model that predicts track and intensity using a trajectory approach, has error characteristics similar to those of CLIPER and D-SHIFOR but can be run to any forecast length. The Trajectory and Beta model (TAB), another trajectory track model, applies a gridpoint spatial filter to smooth winds from th...
The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center (NHC/TPC) has identified obtaining guida... more The National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center (NHC/TPC) has identified obtaining guidance on the timing and magnitude
Weather and Forecasting, 2015
New multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensific... more New multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction models are developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These are the linear-discriminant analysis–based Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index (SHIPS-RII), logistic regression, and Bayesian statistical RI models. Consensus RI models derived by averaging the three individual RI model probability forecasts are also generated. A verification of the cross-validated forecasts of the above RI models conducted for the 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h lead times indicates that these models generally exhibit skill relative to climatological forecasts, with the eastern Pacific models providing somewhat more skill than the Atlantic ones and the consensus versions providing more skill than the individual models. A verification of the deterministic RI model forecasts indicates that the operational intensity guidance exhibits some li...
Weather and Forecasting, 2015
The probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic ... more The probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins is examined here using a series of logistic regression models trained on environmental and infrared satellite-derived features. The environmental predictors are based on averaged values over a 24-h period following the forecast time. These models are compared against equivalent models enhanced with additional TC predictors created from passive satellite microwave imagery (MI). Leave-one-year-out cross validation on the developmental dataset shows that the inclusion of MI-based predictors yields more skillful RI models for a variety of RI and intensity thresholds. Compared with the baseline forecast skill of the non-MI-based RI models, the relative skill improvements from including MI-based predictors range from 10.6% to 44.9%. Using archived real-time data during the period 2004–13, evaluation of simulated real-time models is also carried out. Unlike in t...
Weather and Forecasting, 2003
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)... more The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) databases are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In this study, rapid intensification (RI) is defined as approximately the 95th percentile of over-water 24-h intensity changes of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that developed from 1989 to 2000. This equates to a maximum sustained surface wind speed increase of 15.4 m s Ϫ1 (30 kt) over a 24-h period. It is shown that 31% of all tropical cyclones, 60% of all hurricanes, 83% of all major hurricanes, and all category 4 and 5 hurricanes underwent RI at least once during their lifetimes. The mean initial (t ϭ 0 h) conditions of cases that undergo RI are compared to those of the non-RI cases. These comparisons show that the RI cases form farther south and west and have a more westward component of motion than the non-RI cases. In addition, the RI cases are typically intensifying at a faster rate during the previous 12 h than the non-RI cases. The statistical analysis also shows that the RI cases are further from their maximum potential intensity and form in regions with warmer SSTs and higher lower-tropospheric relative humidity than the non-RI cases. The RI cases are also embedded in regions where the upper-level flow is more easterly and the vertical shear and upper-level forcing from troughs or cold lows is weaker than is observed for the non-RI cases. Finally, the RI cases tend to move with the flow within a higher layer of the atmosphere than the non-RI cases. A simple technique for estimating the probability of RI is described. Estimates of the probability of RI are determined using the predictors for which statistically significant differences are found between the RI and non-RI cases. Estimates of the probability of RI are also determined by combining the five predictors that had the highest individual probabilities of RI. The probability of RI increases from 1% to 41% when the total number of thresholds satisfied increases from zero to five. This simple technique was used in real time for the first time during the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season as part of the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT).
Weather and Forecasting, 2010
A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific bas... more A revised rapid intensity index (RII) is developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The RII uses large-scale predictors from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to estimate the probability of rapid intensification (RI) over the succeeding 24 h utilizing linear discriminant analysis. Separate versions of the RII are developed for the 25-, 30-, and 35-kt RI thresholds, which represent the 90th (88th), 94th (92nd), and 97th (94th) percentiles of 24-h overwater intensity changes of tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic (eastern North Pacific) basins from 1989 to 2006, respectively. The revised RII became operational at the NHC prior to the 2008 hurricane season. The relative importance of the individual RI predictors is shown to differ between the two basins. Specifically, the previous 12-h intensity change, upper-level divergence, and vertical shear have the highest weights for the Atlantic basin, while the previous 12-h intensity...
Weather and Forecasting, 1994