İsmail Kavaz - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by İsmail Kavaz

Uludag Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, 2020

the study aims to analyze the energy markets in terms of consumption-price movements and develop ... more the study aims to analyze the energy markets in terms of consumption-price movements and develop policy recommendations for the post-crisis period.

Bingol Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, Dec 28, 2020

This study analyses the effects of some selected parameters on Turkey's industrial electricity de... more This study analyses the effects of some selected parameters on Turkey's industrial electricity demand by using annual data between 1978 and 2018. In this regard, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing method is utilized for establishing the models. The variables that used in the models of this study are electricity consumption, industrial value added, price of electricity, urbanization rate and average air temperature. According to the empirical findings, the price elasticities are estimated negative as expected which are-0.14 and-0.18 for the short and long term, respectively. On the other hand, the income elasticities have positive signs and computed as statistically significant. The short and long run income elasticities of industrial electricity demand are found as 0,15 and 0,35, respectively. Additionally, the urbanization rate and air temperature positively affect the industrial electricity demand of Turkey. These results indicate that the estimated price and income elasticities for the Turkish industrial electricity demand are very low and smaller than 1 in absolute terms. Therefore, it can be said that an increase and/or decrease in price and income as percentage is more than increase in electricity consumption for the industrial sector. In addition, these results imply that since the electricity usage in Turkey's industrial sector is a necessity, consumers are not changing their consumption behaviour easily with respect to the price and income movements.

International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2021, 2021

Although the usage of nuclear power has been severely criticised, it tends to increase worldwide.... more Although the usage of nuclear power has been severely criticised, it tends to increase worldwide. Especially developing countries and the countries that prioritize increasing the energy supply security are taking steps to generate electricity by using nuclear power technologies. In other respects, countries that utilised from nuclear energy extensively in the past are now highlighting the harms of this energy type and they defend the usage of nuclear power should be limited. Turkey, on the other hand, carried its nuclear power adventure, which lasted more than half-century, to a new stage with the Akkuyu Power Plant. With this step, it is aimed primarily to enrich the energy profile of the country. In addition, it is projected to make a significant contribution of the energy supply security of the country with this power plant, which is planned to be set into operation in 2023. In this study, the general situation of nuclear energy in the world will be examined. Furthermore, the pos...

Bu calismada, Turkiye icin sanayi sektoru dogal gaz talebi 1988-2015 yillari arasini kapsayan yil... more Bu calismada, Turkiye icin sanayi sektoru dogal gaz talebi 1988-2015 yillari arasini kapsayan yillik veri kullanilarak ve Yapisal Zaman Serisi Modelleme metodundan faydalanilarak incelenmistir. Bu metot incelenen serideki yapisal degisimlerin belirlenebilmesi ve stokastik trendin degisimini gozlemleyebilme acisindan birtakim avantajlara sahip olmasi nedeniyle kullanilmistir. Ayrica esneklik hesaplamalarinin daha tutarli olmalari adina modelde gelir ve fiyat esnekliklerinin yaninda capraz fiyat esnekligi de arastirilmistir. Calismanin devaminda hesaplanan esneklik degerleri kullanilarak sanayi sektoru icin 2025 yilina kadar dogal gaz talebi tahmin edilmistir.

Kaya Gazi Devrimi: Kuresel Enerji Piyasalarindaki Yansimalari ve Turkiye’deki Gelecegi Shale Gas ... more Kaya Gazi Devrimi: Kuresel Enerji Piyasalarindaki Yansimalari ve Turkiye’deki Gelecegi Shale Gas Revolution: Reflections of Global Energy Markets and The Future in Turkey Prof. Dr. Erdal Tanas Karagol Ankara Yildirim Beyazit Universitesi, erdalkaragol@hotmail.com Ars. Gor. Ankara Yildirim Beyazit Universitesi, i_kavaz@hotmail.com OZET Kaya gazi, dogal gaza alternatif bir enerji kaynagi olmasindan oturu kuresel enerji piyasalari acisindan oyun degistirici bir enstruman olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Bu anlamda ilk olarak ABD’de gerceklesen kaya gazi devrimi kisa sure icerisinde genis bir alana yayilarak tum ulkelerin ilgisini cekmistir. Turkiye’de ise ozellikle Trakya ve Guneydogu Anadolu bolgelerinde bulunan rezerv alanlarinin genisletilmesi ve yeni sondaj bolgelerinin olusturulmasi icin calisilmaktadir. Enerji ihtiyacinin buyuk bolumunu ithal eden Turkiye acisindan kaya gazi oldukca onemli bir firsat olarak gorulmektedir. Bu calismada kaya gazinin dunya ve Turkiye’deki mevcut rezerv ...

Dogu Akdeniz’de kesfedilen enerji rezervleri tum dunyanin dikkatini bu bolge uzerine cekmektedir.... more Dogu Akdeniz’de kesfedilen enerji rezervleri tum dunyanin dikkatini bu bolge uzerine cekmektedir. Soz konusu cografyada gerek ulusal ve uluslararasi aktorler gerekse buyuk enerji sirketleri faaliyetlerini surdurmektedir. Ilk olarak 2000’li yillarin baslarinda bolgede arama ve sondaj calismalarinin baslatilmasi icin ulkeler arasinda ikili anlasmalar gerceklesmistir. Sonrasinda soz konusu anlasmalar cercevesinde bazi uluslararasi enerji sirketleri bolgeye davet edilerek burada faaliyet yapmalari adina ruhsatlandirilmistir. Bu surecin ardindan birtakim kesiflerin gerceklesmesiyle birlikte bolgede zaten mevcut olan rekabet ortaminin artmaya devam ettigi gorulmektedir. Gelinen nokta itibariyle Dogu Akdeniz’deki ana motivasyon unsurlarinin yeni kaynak alanlari kesfetmenin yaninda bu kaynaklarin en ekonomik ve guvenli sekilde transfer edilmesi oldugu soylenebilir. Dogu Akdeniz’de bulunan enerji kaynaklarinin buyuklugu bolgedeki stratejik ve ekonomik rekabeti tetiklemektedir. Dolayisiyla bo...

Turkish Economic Review, 2018

Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in T... more Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in Turkey are analysed, using quarterly data from 1987 to 2017. In order to examine these relationships a number of econometric methods are applied, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Error Correction Model. The results show that all variables are stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, the validity of long-run relationships among variables is found by the Johansen cointegration test. Since the cointegration is observed between series, the Error Correction Model is used to determine the causality. The empirical findings from the causality test suggest that there is short-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and import in Turkey. On the other hand, according to the Error Correction Model, there is a long run unidirectional causality from economic growth to export in Turkey. Keywords. ...

International Econometric Review, 2020

In this study, the price and income elasticities of Turkey's imported crude oil demand are analys... more In this study, the price and income elasticities of Turkey's imported crude oil demand are analysed. In this context, annual time series data covering the period 1970-2018 are preferred for imported crude oil, real price for crude oil and real GDP. As known, Turkey is an energy dependent country especially in fossil fuels. Therefore, estimating Turkey's crude oil demand equations is very significant to analyse the consumption trend and the future expectations in terms of this energy resource. This study employs Harvey's Structural Time Series Modelling Method (STSM) with the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) concept for determining the relations among income, price and crude oil import demand. The empirical results show that the income and price elasticities of crude oil demand in Turkey are 0.66 and-0.11, respectively. The estimated elasticities suggest that income and price elasticities for the imported crude oil demand are inelastic.

the Journal of Academic Social Sciences, 2016

Trade openness is an essential component of economic growth, and the relationship between trade o... more Trade openness is an essential component of economic growth, and the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption has been an important topic of discussion among academics and researchers. The purpose of this study is to deal with the symmetric and asymmetric causality between Turkey's trade openness and energy consumption. For this purpose, using Turkey's annual data for the period between 1980-2015 years, the causality relationship between trade openness and energy consumption was analyzed by symmetrical Toda-Yamamoto causality test and asymmetric Hatemi-J causality test. It was determined that there is bidirectional causality relationship both from trade openness to energy consumption and from energy consumption to trade openness according to the symmetric Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the results of the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test, no asymmetric causality relationship between the trade openness and energy consumption has been determined. By promoting industrialization, trade openness will be able to affect economic growth and economic growth will result in an increase in energy demand. Due to the expansion of trade openness, the increased in the number of technological products will be able to contribute to the country's energy efficiency policies by encouraging the production and use of lower-cost energy.

The energy resource potential and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean have attracted the att... more The energy resource potential and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean have attracted the attention of the global energy markets for a long time. Since the beginning of the 2000s, exploration, and drilling activities have continued to increase in the region. The discovered hydrocarbon resources are only a small part of the estimated potential, consequently, the actors in the Eastern Mediterranean have been focusing on increasing this quantity. On the other hand, the ongoing discussions related to Exclusive Economic Zones have delayed the seismic surveys, drilling operations, and production activities in some specific areas of the region. Moreover, transferring the discovered resources from the Eastern Mediterranean to the international markets is another issue that has not yet been resolved. Therefore, this study evaluates the general situation in the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of the potential of energy resources, discoveries, and transfer projects. In this context, this pa...

Uludag Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, 2020

the study aims to analyze the energy markets in terms of consumption-price movements and develop ... more the study aims to analyze the energy markets in terms of consumption-price movements and develop policy recommendations for the post-crisis period.

Bingol Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, Dec 28, 2020

This study analyses the effects of some selected parameters on Turkey's industrial electricity de... more This study analyses the effects of some selected parameters on Turkey's industrial electricity demand by using annual data between 1978 and 2018. In this regard, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing method is utilized for establishing the models. The variables that used in the models of this study are electricity consumption, industrial value added, price of electricity, urbanization rate and average air temperature. According to the empirical findings, the price elasticities are estimated negative as expected which are-0.14 and-0.18 for the short and long term, respectively. On the other hand, the income elasticities have positive signs and computed as statistically significant. The short and long run income elasticities of industrial electricity demand are found as 0,15 and 0,35, respectively. Additionally, the urbanization rate and air temperature positively affect the industrial electricity demand of Turkey. These results indicate that the estimated price and income elasticities for the Turkish industrial electricity demand are very low and smaller than 1 in absolute terms. Therefore, it can be said that an increase and/or decrease in price and income as percentage is more than increase in electricity consumption for the industrial sector. In addition, these results imply that since the electricity usage in Turkey's industrial sector is a necessity, consumers are not changing their consumption behaviour easily with respect to the price and income movements.

International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2021, 2021

Although the usage of nuclear power has been severely criticised, it tends to increase worldwide.... more Although the usage of nuclear power has been severely criticised, it tends to increase worldwide. Especially developing countries and the countries that prioritize increasing the energy supply security are taking steps to generate electricity by using nuclear power technologies. In other respects, countries that utilised from nuclear energy extensively in the past are now highlighting the harms of this energy type and they defend the usage of nuclear power should be limited. Turkey, on the other hand, carried its nuclear power adventure, which lasted more than half-century, to a new stage with the Akkuyu Power Plant. With this step, it is aimed primarily to enrich the energy profile of the country. In addition, it is projected to make a significant contribution of the energy supply security of the country with this power plant, which is planned to be set into operation in 2023. In this study, the general situation of nuclear energy in the world will be examined. Furthermore, the pos...

Bu calismada, Turkiye icin sanayi sektoru dogal gaz talebi 1988-2015 yillari arasini kapsayan yil... more Bu calismada, Turkiye icin sanayi sektoru dogal gaz talebi 1988-2015 yillari arasini kapsayan yillik veri kullanilarak ve Yapisal Zaman Serisi Modelleme metodundan faydalanilarak incelenmistir. Bu metot incelenen serideki yapisal degisimlerin belirlenebilmesi ve stokastik trendin degisimini gozlemleyebilme acisindan birtakim avantajlara sahip olmasi nedeniyle kullanilmistir. Ayrica esneklik hesaplamalarinin daha tutarli olmalari adina modelde gelir ve fiyat esnekliklerinin yaninda capraz fiyat esnekligi de arastirilmistir. Calismanin devaminda hesaplanan esneklik degerleri kullanilarak sanayi sektoru icin 2025 yilina kadar dogal gaz talebi tahmin edilmistir.

Kaya Gazi Devrimi: Kuresel Enerji Piyasalarindaki Yansimalari ve Turkiye’deki Gelecegi Shale Gas ... more Kaya Gazi Devrimi: Kuresel Enerji Piyasalarindaki Yansimalari ve Turkiye’deki Gelecegi Shale Gas Revolution: Reflections of Global Energy Markets and The Future in Turkey Prof. Dr. Erdal Tanas Karagol Ankara Yildirim Beyazit Universitesi, erdalkaragol@hotmail.com Ars. Gor. Ankara Yildirim Beyazit Universitesi, i_kavaz@hotmail.com OZET Kaya gazi, dogal gaza alternatif bir enerji kaynagi olmasindan oturu kuresel enerji piyasalari acisindan oyun degistirici bir enstruman olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Bu anlamda ilk olarak ABD’de gerceklesen kaya gazi devrimi kisa sure icerisinde genis bir alana yayilarak tum ulkelerin ilgisini cekmistir. Turkiye’de ise ozellikle Trakya ve Guneydogu Anadolu bolgelerinde bulunan rezerv alanlarinin genisletilmesi ve yeni sondaj bolgelerinin olusturulmasi icin calisilmaktadir. Enerji ihtiyacinin buyuk bolumunu ithal eden Turkiye acisindan kaya gazi oldukca onemli bir firsat olarak gorulmektedir. Bu calismada kaya gazinin dunya ve Turkiye’deki mevcut rezerv ...

Dogu Akdeniz’de kesfedilen enerji rezervleri tum dunyanin dikkatini bu bolge uzerine cekmektedir.... more Dogu Akdeniz’de kesfedilen enerji rezervleri tum dunyanin dikkatini bu bolge uzerine cekmektedir. Soz konusu cografyada gerek ulusal ve uluslararasi aktorler gerekse buyuk enerji sirketleri faaliyetlerini surdurmektedir. Ilk olarak 2000’li yillarin baslarinda bolgede arama ve sondaj calismalarinin baslatilmasi icin ulkeler arasinda ikili anlasmalar gerceklesmistir. Sonrasinda soz konusu anlasmalar cercevesinde bazi uluslararasi enerji sirketleri bolgeye davet edilerek burada faaliyet yapmalari adina ruhsatlandirilmistir. Bu surecin ardindan birtakim kesiflerin gerceklesmesiyle birlikte bolgede zaten mevcut olan rekabet ortaminin artmaya devam ettigi gorulmektedir. Gelinen nokta itibariyle Dogu Akdeniz’deki ana motivasyon unsurlarinin yeni kaynak alanlari kesfetmenin yaninda bu kaynaklarin en ekonomik ve guvenli sekilde transfer edilmesi oldugu soylenebilir. Dogu Akdeniz’de bulunan enerji kaynaklarinin buyuklugu bolgedeki stratejik ve ekonomik rekabeti tetiklemektedir. Dolayisiyla bo...

Turkish Economic Review, 2018

Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in T... more Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in Turkey are analysed, using quarterly data from 1987 to 2017. In order to examine these relationships a number of econometric methods are applied, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Error Correction Model. The results show that all variables are stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, the validity of long-run relationships among variables is found by the Johansen cointegration test. Since the cointegration is observed between series, the Error Correction Model is used to determine the causality. The empirical findings from the causality test suggest that there is short-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and import in Turkey. On the other hand, according to the Error Correction Model, there is a long run unidirectional causality from economic growth to export in Turkey. Keywords. ...

International Econometric Review, 2020

In this study, the price and income elasticities of Turkey's imported crude oil demand are analys... more In this study, the price and income elasticities of Turkey's imported crude oil demand are analysed. In this context, annual time series data covering the period 1970-2018 are preferred for imported crude oil, real price for crude oil and real GDP. As known, Turkey is an energy dependent country especially in fossil fuels. Therefore, estimating Turkey's crude oil demand equations is very significant to analyse the consumption trend and the future expectations in terms of this energy resource. This study employs Harvey's Structural Time Series Modelling Method (STSM) with the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) concept for determining the relations among income, price and crude oil import demand. The empirical results show that the income and price elasticities of crude oil demand in Turkey are 0.66 and-0.11, respectively. The estimated elasticities suggest that income and price elasticities for the imported crude oil demand are inelastic.

the Journal of Academic Social Sciences, 2016

Trade openness is an essential component of economic growth, and the relationship between trade o... more Trade openness is an essential component of economic growth, and the relationship between trade openness and energy consumption has been an important topic of discussion among academics and researchers. The purpose of this study is to deal with the symmetric and asymmetric causality between Turkey's trade openness and energy consumption. For this purpose, using Turkey's annual data for the period between 1980-2015 years, the causality relationship between trade openness and energy consumption was analyzed by symmetrical Toda-Yamamoto causality test and asymmetric Hatemi-J causality test. It was determined that there is bidirectional causality relationship both from trade openness to energy consumption and from energy consumption to trade openness according to the symmetric Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the results of the Hatemi-J asymmetric causality test, no asymmetric causality relationship between the trade openness and energy consumption has been determined. By promoting industrialization, trade openness will be able to affect economic growth and economic growth will result in an increase in energy demand. Due to the expansion of trade openness, the increased in the number of technological products will be able to contribute to the country's energy efficiency policies by encouraging the production and use of lower-cost energy.

The energy resource potential and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean have attracted the att... more The energy resource potential and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean have attracted the attention of the global energy markets for a long time. Since the beginning of the 2000s, exploration, and drilling activities have continued to increase in the region. The discovered hydrocarbon resources are only a small part of the estimated potential, consequently, the actors in the Eastern Mediterranean have been focusing on increasing this quantity. On the other hand, the ongoing discussions related to Exclusive Economic Zones have delayed the seismic surveys, drilling operations, and production activities in some specific areas of the region. Moreover, transferring the discovered resources from the Eastern Mediterranean to the international markets is another issue that has not yet been resolved. Therefore, this study evaluates the general situation in the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of the potential of energy resources, discoveries, and transfer projects. In this context, this pa...