Kevin Rosner - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Kevin Rosner
With Russia on the march again, Europe is naturally concerned with the low probability-high impac... more With Russia on the march again, Europe is naturally concerned with the low probability-high impact potential of a Russian inspired cut-off of its natural gas deliveries, particularly at this point in time with the crises in the Crimea and Ukraine which serves as Europe’s most pivotal and important gas transit country for Russian Federation gas. There are of course multitudes of other disruptive gas scenarios that could impact still sluggish European economies and hold them back from a more robust economic recovery.
The global financial crisis has by definition wrought havoc on all the world’s economies: althoug... more The global financial crisis has by definition wrought havoc on all the world’s economies: although the pain is not evenly distributed. The Russian economy, a darling of emerging market investors over the past 8 years had been until May 2008 one of the world’s best performing markets. But since then the combined Russian exchanges have fallen more than 70% making Russia "one of the world’s worst performers over the past few months." It is yet not clear how the implosion of Russia’s financial market will affect that nation’s oil and gas sectors and in turn Europe’s overall energy security. There are however a few indicators to consider.
Bridging a robust national security policy in meeting vulnerabilities associated with power suppl... more Bridging a robust national security policy in meeting vulnerabilities associated with power supply (electricity) and fuels (primarily used in transportation) is an emergent 21st century security challenge for all nations. The potential individual single points of failure where fuels and power (hereafter energy) are concerned are compounded for countries which lack adequate domestic resources necessary for one or both of these end uses. Geology being what it is, nations cannot create natural reserves of oil, gas, coal, and water to power their economies and provide for their citizens. What they can do however is to put in place policy frameworks that address energy vulnerabilities for bolstering the state’s national security. These policies include domestic regulatory and investment policies, foreign policy, and national security policy. Policy choices where energy is concerned have traditionally been thought of as primarily a mix of market-based responses to meet a nation’s energy r...
Integrating sustainable development and security : an analytical approach with examples from the ... more Integrating sustainable development and security : an analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia
Petroleum Economist, 2003
Physical threats to Russia's pipeline networks are more pronounced than ever. Strategies to p... more Physical threats to Russia's pipeline networks are more pronounced than ever. Strategies to protect the nation's energy lifelines are implicit in its foreign policy and explicit in its bilateral and multilateral relations with the near abroad. The threat environment, perceived otherwise, requires russian policy makers to devise planning and response mechanisms to safeguard its energy infrastructure.
Ecological, financial and political systems are under increasing pressure from human activities, ... more Ecological, financial and political systems are under increasing pressure from human activities, facing growing uncertainties that challenge widely held views on sustainable development. At the same time, experts in conventional (hard) security are confronting a new set of threats that go beyond traditional interstate armed conflict, related to natural resources constraints, climate change and environmental degradation. It is important to understand how these trends affect security, and how they may interact with one another. A common analytical approach in both the sustainable development and security research communities is to use scenarios to explore possible futures and identify options. However, while the sustainable development community tends to look at relatively long time horizons and presume fairly stable geopolitical conditions, the security research community typically uses shorter time horizons and views politicaleconomic factors as dynamic. This paper presents an integ...
Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization t... more Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization that tackles environment and development challenges. We connect science and decision-making to develop solutions for a sustainable future for all. Our approach is highly collaborative: stakeholder involvement is at the heart of our efforts to build capacity, strengthen institutions, and equip partners for the long term. Our work spans climate, water, air, and land-use issues, and integrates evidence and perspectives on governance, the economy, gender and human health. Across our eight centres in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, we engage with policy processes, development action and business practice throughout the world. This material/production has been financed by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida. Responsibility for the content rests entirely with the creator. Sida does not necessarily share the expressed views and interpretations.
With Russia on the march again, Europe is naturally concerned with the low probability-high impac... more With Russia on the march again, Europe is naturally concerned with the low probability-high impact potential of a Russian inspired cut-off of its natural gas deliveries, particularly at this point in time with the crises in the Crimea and Ukraine which serves as Europe’s most pivotal and important gas transit country for Russian Federation gas. There are of course multitudes of other disruptive gas scenarios that could impact still sluggish European economies and hold them back from a more robust economic recovery.
The global financial crisis has by definition wrought havoc on all the world’s economies: althoug... more The global financial crisis has by definition wrought havoc on all the world’s economies: although the pain is not evenly distributed. The Russian economy, a darling of emerging market investors over the past 8 years had been until May 2008 one of the world’s best performing markets. But since then the combined Russian exchanges have fallen more than 70% making Russia "one of the world’s worst performers over the past few months." It is yet not clear how the implosion of Russia’s financial market will affect that nation’s oil and gas sectors and in turn Europe’s overall energy security. There are however a few indicators to consider.
Bridging a robust national security policy in meeting vulnerabilities associated with power suppl... more Bridging a robust national security policy in meeting vulnerabilities associated with power supply (electricity) and fuels (primarily used in transportation) is an emergent 21st century security challenge for all nations. The potential individual single points of failure where fuels and power (hereafter energy) are concerned are compounded for countries which lack adequate domestic resources necessary for one or both of these end uses. Geology being what it is, nations cannot create natural reserves of oil, gas, coal, and water to power their economies and provide for their citizens. What they can do however is to put in place policy frameworks that address energy vulnerabilities for bolstering the state’s national security. These policies include domestic regulatory and investment policies, foreign policy, and national security policy. Policy choices where energy is concerned have traditionally been thought of as primarily a mix of market-based responses to meet a nation’s energy r...
Integrating sustainable development and security : an analytical approach with examples from the ... more Integrating sustainable development and security : an analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia
Petroleum Economist, 2003
Physical threats to Russia's pipeline networks are more pronounced than ever. Strategies to p... more Physical threats to Russia's pipeline networks are more pronounced than ever. Strategies to protect the nation's energy lifelines are implicit in its foreign policy and explicit in its bilateral and multilateral relations with the near abroad. The threat environment, perceived otherwise, requires russian policy makers to devise planning and response mechanisms to safeguard its energy infrastructure.
Ecological, financial and political systems are under increasing pressure from human activities, ... more Ecological, financial and political systems are under increasing pressure from human activities, facing growing uncertainties that challenge widely held views on sustainable development. At the same time, experts in conventional (hard) security are confronting a new set of threats that go beyond traditional interstate armed conflict, related to natural resources constraints, climate change and environmental degradation. It is important to understand how these trends affect security, and how they may interact with one another. A common analytical approach in both the sustainable development and security research communities is to use scenarios to explore possible futures and identify options. However, while the sustainable development community tends to look at relatively long time horizons and presume fairly stable geopolitical conditions, the security research community typically uses shorter time horizons and views politicaleconomic factors as dynamic. This paper presents an integ...
Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization t... more Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization that tackles environment and development challenges. We connect science and decision-making to develop solutions for a sustainable future for all. Our approach is highly collaborative: stakeholder involvement is at the heart of our efforts to build capacity, strengthen institutions, and equip partners for the long term. Our work spans climate, water, air, and land-use issues, and integrates evidence and perspectives on governance, the economy, gender and human health. Across our eight centres in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, we engage with policy processes, development action and business practice throughout the world. This material/production has been financed by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida. Responsibility for the content rests entirely with the creator. Sida does not necessarily share the expressed views and interpretations.