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Papers by Kristian Uppenberg

Introducing this volume of the EIB Papers and linking the various contributions, this paper empha... more Introducing this volume of the EIB Papers and linking the various contributions, this paper emphasises that the internationalisation of production in Europe, which creates cross-border production networks, is an increasingly important element of globalisation, has been spreading to new EU members, and brings benefits very similar to those of globalisation in general. Popular fears that the geographical reorganisation of production comes at the expense of countries that see some of their activities moving to other countries are largely unfounded. In particular, "races to the bottom" in wages, tax revenues, and environmental standards do not seem to take place. On the contrary, the move appears to be up rather than down. That said, like any structural change, the internationalisation of production brings distributional challenges that need to be dealt with.

Volume 6 No 1 2001 10 EIB Papers to make a significant contribution to economic growth over the m... more Volume 6 No 1 2001 10 EIB Papers to make a significant contribution to economic growth over the medium-term, though only when a certain number of conditions are met. Thus, we turn our attention to Europe and ask where the continent stands in the adoption of these technologies. Section 4 addresses this issue. In general, we find a number of causes for concern. While there are certainly some market segments where European companies perform well, it seems unlikely that EU ICT production will generate the same kind of contribution to overall growth as that seen in the US. For the economy as a whole there is also a question of the optimal structure of investment. Europe is investing relatively more in telecoms than the US, but is spending substantially less on information technology (IT). However, talking of Europe as one economic mass hides large differences between countries, some of which seem to have as "new" economies as the US. While large regional differences also exist within the US, we believe this topic merits particular reflection in the case of EU, not least because differences among EU regions are largely addressed via transfers of one form or another to support investment-including ICT (1). Section 5 addresses the question of what ICT means for the geographical distribution of economic activity. Will we see the "death of distance" or highly concentrated clusters of economic activity? Unequal performance within Europe, and between Europe and the US is also due to a number of institutional factors that influence the rate of innovation in an economy and the extent to which it can exploit new ideas to the fullest. Section 6 briefly explores some of these issues, including computer-related skills, the functioning of labour markets, and the financing of innovative start-up companies. Finally, section 7 concludes with a summary the main lessons we have learnt from this exercise. 2. Macroeconomic evidence of a new economy in the United States 2.1 The growth in US labour productivity in the 1990s Let us start with a brief recap of the recent performance of the US economy. After an unspectacular recovery from recession at the beginning of the decade, the US economy gained momentum in the second half of the 1990s. Real GDP growth accelerated from 2.4% on average in 1991-95 to 3.9% in 1996-2000. While the low unemployment rate is an impressive feature of the US economy, it is nevertheless not a key element in the acceleration of US growth in recent years. Average annual employment growth did accelerate from 1.0% in 1991-95 to 1.6% in 1996-2000, but this figure remains below the averages for previous decades (2). Rather than employment growth, the key element behind higher economic growth in the second half of the 1990s is output per man-hour worked, i.e. labour productivity. In the business sector of the economy, labour productivity growth accelerated from 1.5% annually in 1991-95 to 3.3% in 1996-2000. The paper by David (this volume), gives some more detail on the evolution of GDP and labour productivity growth in the US in recent decades. 1) See Volume 5, Number 1, of the EIB Papers for more discussion of European regional development policy. 2) Average annual civilian employment growth in fact slowed from 2.4% in the 1970s, to 1.8% in the 1980s and 1.3% in the 1990s. The focus here is on the possible consequences of ICT on long-term gro w t h , rather than the many other possible dimensions of a new economy.

Eib Papers Cahiers Bei, 2001

The paper is organised as follows: The first section reviews the recent trends in investment rate... more The paper is organised as follows: The first section reviews the recent trends in investment rates in South-Eastern Europe (SEE). The low level of investment in the region emerges clearly from this discussion. To explain the low investment rates, we then look at the other side of the savings-investment identity. In particular, we split savings into a foreign component, a government component, and a domestic private sector component. The key weakness is the poor private sector savings rate. Indeed, very large capital inflows into the region are needed to close the domestic savings-investment gap, even though investment is at low levels to begin with. In the following three sections we discuss the key components of savings in turn to see where gains may come from in the future. We argue that increasing corporate retained earnings is the key short to medium term solution. Some policy measures to achieve this goal are briefly outlined.

A review of the 2009 EIB Conference in Economics & Finance

A review of the 2010 EIB Conference in Economics and Finance

Eib Papers Cahiers Bei, 2001

A review of the 2009 EIB Conference in Economics & Finance

A review of the 2010 EIB Conference in Economics and Finance