Ladislav Gaál - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Ladislav Gaál
The study examines climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean regi... more The study examines climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean region for the late 21st century (2070–99) in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Precipitation extremes are considered at a wide range of time scales from hourly to multi-day amounts and in individual seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON). We focus on (i) dependence of the results on the time scale of precipitation aggregation (short-term vs. multi-day amounts), (ii) seasonal differences, (iii) uncertainties of the scenarios related to differences amongst the RCM simulations, and (iv) identification of regions and seasons in which the projected changes in precipitation extremes are particularly large and/or robust in the RCM ensemble. The examined ensemble of RCM simulations captures basic precipitation patterns for the recent climate (1961–90), including seasonal changes. Climate change scenarios for the late 21st century differ substantially for short-term (hou...
In regional flood frequency analysis, the commonly used index-flood method assumes that the frequ... more In regional flood frequency analysis, the commonly used index-flood method assumes that the frequency distribution of flood peaks for different sites in an homogeneous region is the same, provided that the discharge series are rescaled using a site-specific scale factor. This scale factor (index flood) is subsequently related to catchment characteristics to permit estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites
The Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Comenius University in cooperation with the ... more The Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Comenius University in cooperation with the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute has contributed on the processing of monthly and annual maximums in daily and several-day precipitation totals. The goal of this work was to construct maps of spatial distribution of daily, 2- and 5-day precipitation totals with the exceedance probability p=1% and p=2% (the precipitation totals return period once in a 100- or 50-year period on average, respectively). Such maps should be used in the hydrological or climatological services, as well as in the project named POVAPSYS. In the following contribution we present some results of our analysis: a data overview, methods of elaboration and, in the end, 2 digitalized maps: climatic assurance of daily and 5-day precipitation totals with p=1% in Slovakia.
ABSTRACT Understanding the effects of climate changes on river floods requires a better understan... more ABSTRACT Understanding the effects of climate changes on river floods requires a better understanding of the control of climate variability on flood regimes. The aim of this work is to identify the process types of causative mechanisms of floods along a longitudinal Alpine transect spanning 200 km from Verona in Italy to lower Germany. The investigation is focused on the analysis of the statistical properties of the various flood typologies, their spatial organization and their relation with the topography of the transect. Along the transect, 34 basins were selected following criteria of basin size (between 50 and 500 km2), amount of hydrometeorological data available and impact of hydraulic structures on runoff regime. Around 20 years of hourly data of discharge, precipitation and temperature were collected for each basin. The three most intense floods occurred each year are considered in the work. Precipitation and temperature follow a sharp gradient across the transect, with both precipitation and temperature low around the main alpine ridge. Four flood types are considered: long-rain floods, flash floods, rain-on-snow floods, and snowmelt floods. For the classification we use a combination of a number of process indicators, including the timing of the floods, storm duration, rainfall depths, snowmelt contribution to runoff, initial catchment state and runoff response dynamics, using a procedure similar to what described in Merz and Blöschl (2003). The indicators for flood classification are derived based on either observed discharge data and model results. Comparison between the two derived flood classifications allows one to analyse the viability of using a model approach to build flood typologies in basins characterized by varying data availability. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by imposing step changes to the precipitation and temperature pattern. The resulting distribution of flood types gives an insight on the possible change in floods distribution as a result to a change in climate properties. Merz, R. and G. Bloschl (2003). A process typology of regional floods. Water Resources Research 39(12): 1340.
The paper aims at assessing changes in the 100-year flood that are expected to occur during the 2... more The paper aims at assessing changes in the 100-year flood that are expected to occur during the 21 century due to climate change, in the light of similar estimates derived from observed data (1984–2014). For the future (2015–2100), a number of simulated time series of river discharge from the SWICCA database are used, which represent combined outputs of 3 hydrological models and 11 regional climate models. The target location is the Danube River in Bratislava, Slovakia. The case study is an at-site and stationary frequency analysis where data samples are derived using the block maxima approach, and flood quantiles are modeled by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In case there is a significant linear trend in the data samples, the non-stationary approach is adopted with a time-dependent location parameter of the GEV distribution. Flood quantiles and their confidence intervals are numerically estimated on the basis of the Differential Evolution Markov Chain approach. T...
Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future as a consequence ... more Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future as a consequence of the global warming. The monitoring and statistical as well as spatial analyses of above-mentioned precipitation characteristics are highly important, because of observed negative impacts linked with their occurrence. Probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis of relationships between rainfall intensity and its duration as well as frequency (generally express by Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves) represents on of the most commonly used tools in the flood risk management, water resources engineering as well as for flood protection projects. A set of IDF-curves defines a relation between the mean intensity of precipitation, the duration of the aggregation time of the rainfall and return period of the event. There are some statistical techniques how to establish the IDF-curves for annual maximum precipitation totals with selected duration.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Low-level wind shear, i.e., sudden changes in wind speed and/or wind direction up to altitudes of... more Low-level wind shear, i.e., sudden changes in wind speed and/or wind direction up to altitudes of 1600 ft (500 m) above-ground is a hazardous meteorological phenomenon in aviation. It may radically change the aerodynamic circumstances of the flight, particularly during landing and take-off and consequently, it may threaten human lives and the health of passengers, people at the airport and its surrounding areas. The Bratislava Airport, the site of this case study, is one of the few airports worldwide and the first in Central Europe that is equipped with a Doppler lidar system, a perspective remote sensing tool for detecting low-level wind shear. The main objective of this paper was to assess the weather events collected over a period of one year with the occurrences of low-level wind shear situations, such as vertical discontinuities in the wind field, frontal passages and gust fronts to increase the level of flight safety and protect human lives and health. The lidar data were proc...
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Jun 11, 2015
The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flo... more The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border re- search collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exc...
Research for Policy and Practice, 2012
Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards, 2009
ABSTRACT The issue of climate change has been presented mostly as a change in long-term means, ma... more ABSTRACT The issue of climate change has been presented mostly as a change in long-term means, mainly in terms of air temperature and precipitation totals. In the IPCC (2001) report there was for the first time a discussion on a possible change in the shape of distribution curves of individual climatic phenomena, specifically the change in probability densities in the time series from different periods. The basic alternatives of shift of distribution curves are presented in Fig. 1.
This paper presents the development of technologies to support the decision-making of local gover... more This paper presents the development of technologies to support the decision-making of local government executives and smart city concept managers in selecting and evaluating the competencies of new members for advisory groups for solving problems that are implemented in safe times in individual areas or in crises, such as pandemics. The reason for developing effective urban transformation strategies and for the transparent selection of independent experts (non-politicians) for policymaking, decision-making, and implementation teams is not only the heterogeneity of smart city dimensions together with the necessary complexity and systems approach, but also the nature of the capacities and tools needed for smart city concepts. The innovative hybrid competency assessment model is based on fuzzy logic and a network for neuro-fuzzy assessment. It is a technological model for evaluating the competencies of specialists, taking into account the influence of human factors on the processes of ...
Journal of Applied Science and Technology
Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future in consequence of... more Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future in consequence of the global warming. The monitoring and statistical as well as spatial analyses of above-mentioned precipitation characteristics are highly important because of observed negative impacts linked with their occurrence. Probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis of relationships between rainfall intensity and its duration as well as frequency
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
The Single Europe Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program develops and implements inn... more The Single Europe Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program develops and implements innovative technological and operational solutions to modernize European air traffic management and to eliminate the negative environmental impacts of aviation activity. This article presents our developments within the SESAR Solution “Safety Support Tools for Avoiding Runway Excursions”. This SESAR Solution aims to mitigate the risk of runway excursion, to optimize airport operation management by decreasing the number of runway inspections, to make chemical treatment effective with respect to the environment, and to increase resilience, efficiency and safety in adverse weather situations. The proposed approach is based on the enhancement of runway surface condition awareness by integrating data from various sources. Dangerous windy conditions based on Lidar measurements are also discussed as another relevant factor in relation to runway excursions. The paper aims to explore four different ...
Transportation Research Procedia
Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy
This paper analyses the bivariate relationship between flood peaks and corresponding flood event ... more This paper analyses the bivariate relationship between flood peaks and corresponding flood event volumes modelled by empirical copulas in a regional context in the North-West of Austria. Flood data of a total of 69 catchments in the region are analysed for the period 1976–2007. In order to increase the sample size and the homogeneity of the samples for the statistical analysis, 24872 hydrologically independent flood events were isolated and assigned to one of three flood process types: synoptic floods, flash floods or snowmelt floods in contrary to the more traditional engineering approach of selecting annual maxima of flood peaks and corresponding flood volumes. The first major part of the paper examines whether the empirical peak-volume copulas of different flood process types are statistically distinguishable, separately for each catchment. The results indicate that the empirical copulas of flash floods tend to be different from those of the synoptic and snowmelt floods in the ta...
The study examines climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean regi... more The study examines climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean region for the late 21st century (2070–99) in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Precipitation extremes are considered at a wide range of time scales from hourly to multi-day amounts and in individual seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON). We focus on (i) dependence of the results on the time scale of precipitation aggregation (short-term vs. multi-day amounts), (ii) seasonal differences, (iii) uncertainties of the scenarios related to differences amongst the RCM simulations, and (iv) identification of regions and seasons in which the projected changes in precipitation extremes are particularly large and/or robust in the RCM ensemble. The examined ensemble of RCM simulations captures basic precipitation patterns for the recent climate (1961–90), including seasonal changes. Climate change scenarios for the late 21st century differ substantially for short-term (hou...
In regional flood frequency analysis, the commonly used index-flood method assumes that the frequ... more In regional flood frequency analysis, the commonly used index-flood method assumes that the frequency distribution of flood peaks for different sites in an homogeneous region is the same, provided that the discharge series are rescaled using a site-specific scale factor. This scale factor (index flood) is subsequently related to catchment characteristics to permit estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites
The Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Comenius University in cooperation with the ... more The Department of Meteorology and Climatology at the Comenius University in cooperation with the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute has contributed on the processing of monthly and annual maximums in daily and several-day precipitation totals. The goal of this work was to construct maps of spatial distribution of daily, 2- and 5-day precipitation totals with the exceedance probability p=1% and p=2% (the precipitation totals return period once in a 100- or 50-year period on average, respectively). Such maps should be used in the hydrological or climatological services, as well as in the project named POVAPSYS. In the following contribution we present some results of our analysis: a data overview, methods of elaboration and, in the end, 2 digitalized maps: climatic assurance of daily and 5-day precipitation totals with p=1% in Slovakia.
ABSTRACT Understanding the effects of climate changes on river floods requires a better understan... more ABSTRACT Understanding the effects of climate changes on river floods requires a better understanding of the control of climate variability on flood regimes. The aim of this work is to identify the process types of causative mechanisms of floods along a longitudinal Alpine transect spanning 200 km from Verona in Italy to lower Germany. The investigation is focused on the analysis of the statistical properties of the various flood typologies, their spatial organization and their relation with the topography of the transect. Along the transect, 34 basins were selected following criteria of basin size (between 50 and 500 km2), amount of hydrometeorological data available and impact of hydraulic structures on runoff regime. Around 20 years of hourly data of discharge, precipitation and temperature were collected for each basin. The three most intense floods occurred each year are considered in the work. Precipitation and temperature follow a sharp gradient across the transect, with both precipitation and temperature low around the main alpine ridge. Four flood types are considered: long-rain floods, flash floods, rain-on-snow floods, and snowmelt floods. For the classification we use a combination of a number of process indicators, including the timing of the floods, storm duration, rainfall depths, snowmelt contribution to runoff, initial catchment state and runoff response dynamics, using a procedure similar to what described in Merz and Blöschl (2003). The indicators for flood classification are derived based on either observed discharge data and model results. Comparison between the two derived flood classifications allows one to analyse the viability of using a model approach to build flood typologies in basins characterized by varying data availability. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by imposing step changes to the precipitation and temperature pattern. The resulting distribution of flood types gives an insight on the possible change in floods distribution as a result to a change in climate properties. Merz, R. and G. Bloschl (2003). A process typology of regional floods. Water Resources Research 39(12): 1340.
The paper aims at assessing changes in the 100-year flood that are expected to occur during the 2... more The paper aims at assessing changes in the 100-year flood that are expected to occur during the 21 century due to climate change, in the light of similar estimates derived from observed data (1984–2014). For the future (2015–2100), a number of simulated time series of river discharge from the SWICCA database are used, which represent combined outputs of 3 hydrological models and 11 regional climate models. The target location is the Danube River in Bratislava, Slovakia. The case study is an at-site and stationary frequency analysis where data samples are derived using the block maxima approach, and flood quantiles are modeled by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In case there is a significant linear trend in the data samples, the non-stationary approach is adopted with a time-dependent location parameter of the GEV distribution. Flood quantiles and their confidence intervals are numerically estimated on the basis of the Differential Evolution Markov Chain approach. T...
Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future as a consequence ... more Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future as a consequence of the global warming. The monitoring and statistical as well as spatial analyses of above-mentioned precipitation characteristics are highly important, because of observed negative impacts linked with their occurrence. Probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis of relationships between rainfall intensity and its duration as well as frequency (generally express by Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves) represents on of the most commonly used tools in the flood risk management, water resources engineering as well as for flood protection projects. A set of IDF-curves defines a relation between the mean intensity of precipitation, the duration of the aggregation time of the rainfall and return period of the event. There are some statistical techniques how to establish the IDF-curves for annual maximum precipitation totals with selected duration.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Low-level wind shear, i.e., sudden changes in wind speed and/or wind direction up to altitudes of... more Low-level wind shear, i.e., sudden changes in wind speed and/or wind direction up to altitudes of 1600 ft (500 m) above-ground is a hazardous meteorological phenomenon in aviation. It may radically change the aerodynamic circumstances of the flight, particularly during landing and take-off and consequently, it may threaten human lives and the health of passengers, people at the airport and its surrounding areas. The Bratislava Airport, the site of this case study, is one of the few airports worldwide and the first in Central Europe that is equipped with a Doppler lidar system, a perspective remote sensing tool for detecting low-level wind shear. The main objective of this paper was to assess the weather events collected over a period of one year with the occurrences of low-level wind shear situations, such as vertical discontinuities in the wind field, frontal passages and gust fronts to increase the level of flight safety and protect human lives and health. The lidar data were proc...
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Jun 11, 2015
The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flo... more The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border re- search collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exc...
Research for Policy and Practice, 2012
Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards, 2009
ABSTRACT The issue of climate change has been presented mostly as a change in long-term means, ma... more ABSTRACT The issue of climate change has been presented mostly as a change in long-term means, mainly in terms of air temperature and precipitation totals. In the IPCC (2001) report there was for the first time a discussion on a possible change in the shape of distribution curves of individual climatic phenomena, specifically the change in probability densities in the time series from different periods. The basic alternatives of shift of distribution curves are presented in Fig. 1.
This paper presents the development of technologies to support the decision-making of local gover... more This paper presents the development of technologies to support the decision-making of local government executives and smart city concept managers in selecting and evaluating the competencies of new members for advisory groups for solving problems that are implemented in safe times in individual areas or in crises, such as pandemics. The reason for developing effective urban transformation strategies and for the transparent selection of independent experts (non-politicians) for policymaking, decision-making, and implementation teams is not only the heterogeneity of smart city dimensions together with the necessary complexity and systems approach, but also the nature of the capacities and tools needed for smart city concepts. The innovative hybrid competency assessment model is based on fuzzy logic and a network for neuro-fuzzy assessment. It is a technological model for evaluating the competencies of specialists, taking into account the influence of human factors on the processes of ...
Journal of Applied Science and Technology
Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future in consequence of... more Short-term rainfall intensity maxima might gain a rising tendency in the future in consequence of the global warming. The monitoring and statistical as well as spatial analyses of above-mentioned precipitation characteristics are highly important because of observed negative impacts linked with their occurrence. Probabilistic modeling and statistical analysis of relationships between rainfall intensity and its duration as well as frequency
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
The Single Europe Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program develops and implements inn... more The Single Europe Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program develops and implements innovative technological and operational solutions to modernize European air traffic management and to eliminate the negative environmental impacts of aviation activity. This article presents our developments within the SESAR Solution “Safety Support Tools for Avoiding Runway Excursions”. This SESAR Solution aims to mitigate the risk of runway excursion, to optimize airport operation management by decreasing the number of runway inspections, to make chemical treatment effective with respect to the environment, and to increase resilience, efficiency and safety in adverse weather situations. The proposed approach is based on the enhancement of runway surface condition awareness by integrating data from various sources. Dangerous windy conditions based on Lidar measurements are also discussed as another relevant factor in relation to runway excursions. The paper aims to explore four different ...
Transportation Research Procedia
Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy
This paper analyses the bivariate relationship between flood peaks and corresponding flood event ... more This paper analyses the bivariate relationship between flood peaks and corresponding flood event volumes modelled by empirical copulas in a regional context in the North-West of Austria. Flood data of a total of 69 catchments in the region are analysed for the period 1976–2007. In order to increase the sample size and the homogeneity of the samples for the statistical analysis, 24872 hydrologically independent flood events were isolated and assigned to one of three flood process types: synoptic floods, flash floods or snowmelt floods in contrary to the more traditional engineering approach of selecting annual maxima of flood peaks and corresponding flood volumes. The first major part of the paper examines whether the empirical peak-volume copulas of different flood process types are statistically distinguishable, separately for each catchment. The results indicate that the empirical copulas of flash floods tend to be different from those of the synoptic and snowmelt floods in the ta...