Lauren Wisnieski - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Lauren Wisnieski

Research paper thumbnail of The association of pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders in United States adults

Human-Animal Interactions

Prior studies on the association between pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders have... more Prior studies on the association between pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders have varied results. Pet ownership may be beneficial for an owner’s quality of sleep due to the social support that pets provide. Pets offer a sense of security and companionship, which may result in improvements in levels of anxiety, stress, and depression. Alternatively, pets may disrupt their owners’ sleep. Therefore, this cross-sectional study aimed to determine if there is an association between dog and cat ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2005–2006. Separate multivariable logistic regression models were built to assess the association between pet ownership and sleep quality outcomes, which included the following: snoring, snorting, sleep disorder diagnoses, trouble sleeping, trouble falling asleep, waking up during the night, waking up too early, feeling unrested, feeling sleepy, n...

Research paper thumbnail of Outcomes of Heart Failure in COVID-19 Patients: An Appalachian Experience

Cardiology Research

Background: The Southeastern rural areas of the USA have a higher prevalence of heart failure (HF... more Background: The Southeastern rural areas of the USA have a higher prevalence of heart failure (HF). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is associated with poor outcomes in patients with HF. Our study aimed to compare the outcomes of hospitalized HF patients with and without COVID-19 infection specifically in rural parts of the USA. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HF patients with and without COVID-19 hospitalized in Southeastern rural parts of the USA by using the Appalachian Regional Healthcare System.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive Models for Weekly Cattle Mortality after Arrival at a Feeding Location Using Records, Weather, and Transport Data at Time of Purchase

Pathogens

Feedlot mortality negatively affects animal welfare and profitability. To the best of our knowled... more Feedlot mortality negatively affects animal welfare and profitability. To the best of our knowledge, there are no publications on predictive models for weekly all-cause mortality in feedlot cattle. In this study, random forest models to predict weekly mortality for cattle purchase groups (n = 14,217 purchase groups; 860,545 animals) from arrival at the feeding location (Day 1) to Day 42 and cumulative mortality from Day 43 until slaughter were built using records, weather, and transport data available at the time of purchase. Models were evaluated by calculating the root mean squared error (RMSE) and accuracy (as defined as the percent of purchase groups that had predictions within 0.25% and 0.50% of actual mortality). The models had high accuracy (>90%), but the RMSE estimates were high (range = 1.0% to 4.1%). The best predictors were maximum temperature and purchase weight, although this varied by week. The models performed well among purchase groups with low weekly mortality b...

Research paper thumbnail of Adherence with the multitarget stool DNA test for colorectal cancer screening in rural southeastern Kentucky

Journal of Clinical Oncology, Feb 1, 2022

<jats:p> 64 </jats:p><jats:p> Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has... more <jats:p> 64 </jats:p><jats:p> Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has shown to improve early detection and reduce mortality. Despite, the availability of multiple screening tests for CRC, the current screening rates remains below the national goal. The multi-target stool (MTS) DNA test (commercially known as Cologuard) has contributed to an increase in population adherence to CRC screening and is currently recommended by multiple guidelines. Southeastern Kentucky (SE KY) has a high incidence of colorectal cancer and a low rate of CRC screening. The aim of this study is to assess the adherence to the MTSDNA test in rural SE KY. Methods: A retrospective review of all patients 45 and older with a MTSDNA test ordered between August 2020 and February 2021 at a large primary care group in SE KY. All patients had Tests ordered and kits delivered. Cross-sectional adherence was defined as completion and return of the kit within 180 days from test order and was assessed as overall adherence and by patient characteristics including age, sex and healthcare coverage. Results: 450 tests were ordered. 160 (35%) were male and 290 (65%) females. Mean age was 62 with age range (46-87). 207 tests were returned with a cross-sectional adherence of 46%. Adherence was significantly lower for age 45 - 55 at 35.2% (26.2-45.2) compared to age 55 - 65 at 48.9% (40.9-56.3), 65 and older at 50.0% (42.3-57.7) (P = 0.04). Highest adherence with Medicaid coverage 65.4% [44.3-82.8] and lowest in Managed Care Organization (MCO) coverage 34.0% [4.7-44.2] (P &lt; 0.01). Gender was not associated with adherence (P = 0.75). Conclusions: This retrospective study showed that only 46% of patients were adherent to the MTS DNA test for colorectal screening which is significantly lower than previously reported in larger studies and further studies are needed to identify the barriers to non-adherence to this test, especially in the younger population with alarming increase in incidence of CRC. There is impending need to implement different strategies to improve screening adherence. </jats:p>

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Experiences, Behaviors, Beliefs, and Well-Being Among Students and Employees at a University In Rural Appalachia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Journal of Appalachian health, 2021

Introduction: Introduction: In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most univ... more Introduction: Introduction: In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most universities experienced drastic operational changes with shifts to online learning, work-from-home policies, and social distancing measures. These changes have caused concern for social isolation and mental health. Purpose: Purpose: This cross-sectional study explores differences in COVID-19 experiences, behaviors, beliefs, and well-being among students and employees (faculty and staff) at a rural Appalachian university. Methods: Methods: Data were collected with an online anonymous survey in September-October 2020 using convenience sampling. The survey measured multiple domains including COVID-19-related 1) beliefs, 2) symptoms and diagnoses, 3) exposure and preventive behavior, and 4) social, mental, and financial health. Chi-square tests and linear regression models were used to determine differences in survey responses between students and employees. Results: Results: The final sample used for analysis included 416 respondents. The majority of respondents believed COVID-19 was a serious disease and followed mask and social distancing guidelines, although employees were more likely to adhere to mask and social distancing guidelines compared to students. Most of the respondents (>50%) reported feeling more stressed, anxious, and sad since the pandemic began. Students were more impacted by the pandemic compared to employees as measured by the mental, social, and financial impact scale. A limitation of this study was that convenience sampling was used instead of a probability sampling technique, which limits the inference that can be made from the results. Implications Implications: There may be a need for greater mental health support among university employees and students. However, future studies should confirm these findings.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive modeling for the early identification of cattle at risk for transition diseases

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive modeling of bovine respiratory disease outcomes in feedlot cattle: A narrative review

Livestock Science, 2021

Abstract Predictive modeling, which aims to predict a current or future event, is a potential way... more Abstract Predictive modeling, which aims to predict a current or future event, is a potential way to improve identification of cattle at-risk for new onset bovine respiratory disease (BRD) and other BRD-related outcomes, including mortality, treatment response, relapse, and disease severity. Although recently there has been increased interest in predictive models for BRD-related outcomes, this research area remains largely unexplored. Many known risk factors and biomarkers for BRD have yet to be tested for their predictive value for BRD-related outcomes. Of the risk factors and biomarkers that have been assessed for predictive ability, many have not been externally validated in new samples (e.g. other feedlots or in new cohorts of cattle) or implemented in multivariable predictive models. This narrative review aims to discuss 1) special considerations for selecting and implementing predictive models for BRD-related outcomes in feedlot cattle, 2) the current research on predictive modeling for BRD-related outcomes in feedlot cattle, and 3) potential predictor variables. This narrative review highlights the need for research that focuses on developing accurate predictive models for BRD-related outcomes that are both practical and cost-effective for use at the feedlot. Potential predictor variables and methods are suggested.

Research paper thumbnail of Random-effects linear model application to herd-level assessment of bovine hepatic trace mineral concentrations

Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation, 2021

To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mine... more To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mineral status, we performed a retrospective analysis of the results for trace mineral testing of bovine liver samples submitted to the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between 2011 and 2017. Our aim was to examine random-effects models for their potential utility in improving interpretation with minimal sample numbers. The database consisted of 1,658 animals distributed among 121 herds. Minerals were assayed by inductively coupled plasma–mass spectroscopy, and included cobalt, copper, iron, molybdenum, manganese, selenium, and zinc. Intraclass correlation coefficients for each mineral were significantly different ( p < 0.001) from zero and ranged from 0.38 for manganese to 0.82 for selenium, indicating that the strength of herd effects, which are presumably related to diet, vary greatly by mineral. Analysis of the distribution and standard errors of best linear ...

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Among Rural Appalachian Healthcare Workers (Eastern Kentucky/West Virginia): A Cross-Sectional Study

Cureus, 2021

The success of a vaccination program is dependent on vaccine efficacy and the number of people va... more The success of a vaccination program is dependent on vaccine efficacy and the number of people vaccinated. Healthcare workers are the first to receive the COVID-19 vaccine based on CDC phase 1a recommendations and are a point of contact for information for patients, so they must be well-educated on common misconceptions about the vaccine. Objective To identify acceptance/refusal rates of COVID-19 vaccine, reasons for refusal, and to understand the impact of demographics, work environment, and comorbidities on vaccine acceptance. Methods

Research paper thumbnail of Efficacy of Green Tea Consumption on Reducing Body Mass Index and Insulin Resistance: A Meta‐Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Weather conditions associated with death attributed to bovine respiratory disease complex in high-risk auction market–sourced male beef calves

American Journal of Veterinary Research, 2021

OBJECTIVE To evaluate associations between weather conditions and management factors with the inc... more OBJECTIVE To evaluate associations between weather conditions and management factors with the incidence of death attributable to bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) in high-risk auction-sourced beef calves. ANIMALS Cohorts (n = 3,339) of male beef calves (545,866) purchased by 1 large cattle feeding operation from 216 locations and transported to 1 of 89 feeding locations (backgrounding location or feedlot) with similar management protocols. PROCEDURES Associations between weather conditions and management factors on the day of purchase (day P) and during the first week at the feeding location and cumulative BRDC mortality incidence within the first 60 days on feed were estimated in a mixed-effects negative binomial regression model. RESULTS Significant factors in the final model were weaning status; degree of com-mingling; body weight; transport distance; season; precipitation, mean wind speed, and maximum environmental temperature on day P; environmental temperature range in...

Research paper thumbnail of Rumination time around dry-off relative to the development of diseases in early-lactation cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2021

Monitoring rumination time (RT) around the time of calving is an effective way of identifying cow... more Monitoring rumination time (RT) around the time of calving is an effective way of identifying cows at risk of disease in early lactation. However, this only allows for the identification of cows a few days before the onset of clinical signs; thus, effective preventive measures cannot be implemented. Recent research has suggested that biomarkers of immune and metabolic function measured at dry-off (DO) can predict higher disease risk in early lactation. Nevertheless, the extent to which RT around DO is associated with early-lactation disease risk remains unexplored. Thus, the objective of this study was to compare RT in the weeks before and after DO between cows that did and did not experience health disorders in early lactation. For this, we conducted an observational retrospective cohort study utilizing the records available from a large commercial dairy herd in which RT is recorded daily using an automated system. Daily RT from −7 to +14 d relative to DO from 2,258 DO cycles and their respective health records in the first 60 d in milk were used. Differences in RT between animals with and without a disease history were tested with the Student t-test with Bonferroni adjustment. Mixed linear regression analyses were performed to assess differences in RT around DO and the association of RT with the occurrence of mastitis, metritis, retained placenta, hyperketonemia, lameness, hypocalcemia, pneumonia, and displaced abomasum. Rumination time decreased abruptly at DO and remained lower for 3 to 4 d compared with the days before DO. On average, cows affected by hyperketonemia and lameness ruminated 9.83 ± 6.40 and 15.00 ± 6.08 min/d less than unaffected cows, respectively. Cows that developed lameness in the first 60 d in milk showed reduced RT from 1 to 3 d following DO compared with cows that were not diagnosed with lameness in early lactation. However, RT around DO was not associated with the occurrence of the other health disorders studied here. Our results demonstrate that DO is a stressful event for dairy cows resulting in decreased RT for several days. Furthermore, the association between RT around DO and some early-lactation diseases suggests that RT could be a useful tool to identify at-risk cows early enough to allow for preventive interventions. Further studies should investigate the diagnostic utility of incorporating RT data early in the dry period in the disease prediction algorithms of rumination sensors.

Research paper thumbnail of Serum Vitamin D Is Associated with Antioxidant Potential in Peri-Parturient Cows

Antioxidants, 2021

Dairy cows experience increased oxidative stress during periods of transition such as at the cess... more Dairy cows experience increased oxidative stress during periods of transition such as at the cessation of lactation and around the periparturient period, thus increasing disease risk. Despite routine supplementation of transition cow diets with certain vitamins in an attempt to mitigate oxidative stress, there is no currently available data directly linking vitamin supplementation with antioxidant potential (AOP) in transition cows. The objective of this study was to determine the association between serum vitamins and biomarkers of oxidative stress in healthy cows. Blood samples were collected from 240 cows at dry off (DO), close up (CU), and 2–10 days post-calving (DIM2-10). Blood samples were analyzed for vitamins (A, D, E), β-carotene, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and AOP. Spearman correlations and mixed linear regression models were used to assess associations between vitamins and measures of oxidant status. Vitamin D concentrations were positively associated with AOP at the ...

Research paper thumbnail of Serum retinol, β-carotene, and α-tocopherol as biomarkers for disease risk and milk production in periparturient dairy cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2021

The effectiveness of using serum vitamin concentrations as biomarkers to predict diseases in dair... more The effectiveness of using serum vitamin concentrations as biomarkers to predict diseases in dairy cows during the periparturient period is not well known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between serum β-carotene, retinol, and α-tocopherol concentrations and periparturient cow diseases in commercial dairies. We measured serum concentrations of these vitamin-active compounds at dry-off and during close-up (approximately 3 wk before calving) and early lactation (approximately 7 d post-calving), and we examined their association with clinical diseases in the first 30 d in milk. Diseases were diagnosed by trained personnel and recorded using database software. Blood samples were taken from 353 cows from 5 different farms over a 3-yr period. Blood samples were analyzed for β-carotene, retinol, α-tocopherol, and cholesterol. We built separate mixed logistic regression models for each disease outcome: hyperketonuria, lameness, mastitis, uterine diseases (retained placenta or metritis), and an aggregate outcome. For the aggregate outcome, a cow was considered positive if she had one or more of the following: hyperketonuria, lameness, mastitis, uterine disease, pneumonia, milk fever, or displaced abomasum. Concentrations of all 3 fat-soluble vitamins decreased significantly in early lactation relative to the 2 prepartum sampling times. Serum retinol concentrations at close-up and early lactation were negatively associated with odds of developing postpartum hyperketonuria. At early lactation, cows with uterine disease had lower serum retinol concentrations than cows without uterine disease. Similarly, lower serum retinol concentrations were associated with greater odds of having any one disease in the aggregate outcome. First-test 305-d mature-equivalent milk yield was positively correlated with increased serum α-tocopherol and negatively correlated with β-carotene concentrations. This study demonstrates the potential for serum β-carotene, retinol, and α-tocopherol to serve as biomarkers for disease risk.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of gel fingernail polish application on the reduction of bacterial viability following a surgical hand scrub

Veterinary Surgery, 2021

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of gel nail polish application on the reduction of bacterial vi... more OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of gel nail polish application on the reduction of bacterial viability immediately after a surgical hand scrub. STUDY DESIGN Randomized controlled trial. SAMPLE POPULATION Ten fingernails each from 40 female health care professionals and students. METHODS Participants' fingernails were randomized to receive no polish or gel nail polish during a manicure from a licensed manicurist. One day and 14 days after manicure, participants' fingernails were sampled before and after a surgical hand scrub with chlorhexidine gluconate. The samples for each fingernail were serially diluted, plated on a Trypsin sheep blood agar and MacConkey's agar plate, and incubated for 36 h. For each plate, bacterial colony forming units (CFU)/ml were determined. Mixed linear models were used to assess factors associated with the logarithmic reduction of viable bacterial counts from pre- to post-surgical scrub. RESULTS In the final model, no association was detected between gel nail polish and reduction of viable bacterial count (p = .09). On Day 14, among longer nail lengths (2 to <3-mm and ≥3-mm), surgical scrubs resulted in greater reduction in bacterial counts in left-handed than right-handed participants (p < .01). Increasing nail length was correlated with increased CFU/ml post-scrubbing (p < .001). CONCLUSION Application of gel nail polish did not seem to affect the ability of surgical scrub to reduce bacterial viability 1 and 14 days after a manicure. CLINICAL IMPACT This study does not provide evidence to prevent application of gel nail polish on short fingernails in surgeons prior to surgical hand scrub with chlorhexidine gluconate.

Research paper thumbnail of Changes in bovine leukemia virus serological status and lymphocyte count between dry-off and early lactation in Michigan dairy cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2020

This study addresses how the serological status of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and lymphocyte cou... more This study addresses how the serological status of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and lymphocyte count fluctuate from dry-off to early lactation in dairy cattle. Very few studies have investigated how BLV antibody status and lymphocyte count of cows changes longitudinally during the lactation cycle. Blood samples were collected from dairy cattle (n = 149) on 5 commercial dairy herds in Michigan at dry-off, close-up, and 7 to 10 d after calving. Plasma was analyzed for anti-BLV antibodies using a BLV-ELISA and whole blood was analyzed for lymphocyte counts. We found that BLV seroprevalence increased from dry-off (38.9%) to closeup (43.6%), then slightly decreased from close-up to 7 to 10 d after calving (43.0%). However, the change in seroprevalence was only significant from dry-off to close-up. Cows of third or higher parity were more likely to seroconvert than cows of lower parity and had the highest ELISA-negative prevalence of BLV. Lymphocyte counts were significantly higher in ELISApositive animals, but only among second and third or greater parity animals. These results indicate that the use of lymphocyte counts as a disease severity monitoring tool for BLV should differ by parity group. Future studies should investigate if changes in seroprevalence are due to new infections or natural changes in antibody concentrations as the cow prepares for colostrum production. More accurate lymphocyte guidelines to be used for monitoring the progression of BLV should be created that consider parity and lactation stage.

Research paper thumbnail of Serum vitamin D concentrations at dry-off and close-up predict increased postpartum urine ketone concentrations in dairy cattle

Journal of Dairy Science, 2019

Vitamin D is commonly supplemented to dairy cows as vitamin D 3 to support calcium homeostasis an... more Vitamin D is commonly supplemented to dairy cows as vitamin D 3 to support calcium homeostasis and in times of low sunlight exposure. Vitamin D has beneficial immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations fluctuated during lactation, with the lowest concentrations measured in healthy cows within 7 d of calving. However, it is unknown if serum 25(OH)D concentrations measured during the previous lactation are associated with transition diseases or health risk factors in dairy cattle. We collected serum samples from 279 dairy cattle from 5 commercial dairy herds in Michigan at dry-off, close-up, and 2-10 d in milk (DIM). Vitamin D concentrations were determined by measuring serum 25(OH)D by radioimmunoassay. Total serum calcium was measured by colorimetric methods. Body condition scores (BCS) were assigned at the time of blood collection. Clinical disease incidence was monitored until 30 d postparturition. Separate bivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine if serum 25(OH)D at dry-off, close-up, and 2-10 DIM was associated with various clinical diseases including mastitis, lameness, and uterine disorders (classified as metritis, retained placenta, or both) and increased urine ketone concentrations at P < 0.05. Among all significant bivariable analyses, multivariable logistic regression analyses were built to adjust for potential confounding variables including parity, BCS, season, and calcium. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine optimal concentrations of serum 25(OH)D. We found that higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations at dry-off and close-up predicted increased urine ketone concentrations in early lactation, even after adjustment for confounders. Alternatively, we found that lower serum 25(OH)D at 2-10 DIM was associated with uterine diseases. Optimal concentrations for serum 25(OH)D at dry-off and close-up for lower risk of increased urine ketone concentrations were below 103.4 and 91.1 ng/ mL, respectively. The optimal concentration for serum 25(OH)D at 2-10 DIM for uterine diseases was above 71.4 ng/mL. These results indicate that serum 25(OH) D at dry-off and close-up may be a novel predictive biomarker for increased urine ketone concentrations during early lactation. Increased urine ketone concentrations are not necessarily harmful or diagnostic for ketosis but do indicate development of negative energy balance, metabolic stress, and increased risk of early lactation diseases. Predicting that dairy cattle are at increased risk of disease facilitates implementation of intervention strategies that may lower disease incidence. Future studies should confirm these findings and determine the utility of serum 25(OH)D concentrations as a predictive biomarker for clinical and subclinical ketosis.

Research paper thumbnail of Prospects for predictive modeling of transition cow diseases

Animal Health Research Reviews, 2019

Transition cow diseases can negatively impact animal welfare and reduce dairy herd profitability.... more Transition cow diseases can negatively impact animal welfare and reduce dairy herd profitability. Transition cow disease incidence has remained relatively stable over time despite monitoring and management efforts aimed to reduce the risk of developing diseases. Dairy cattle disease risk is monitored by assessing multiple factors, including certain biomarker test results, health records, feed intake, body condition score, and milk production. However, these factors, which are used to make herd management decisions, are often reviewed separately without considering the correlation between them. In addition, the biomarkers that are currently used for monitoring may not be representative of the complex physiological changes that occur during the transition period. Predictive modeling, which uses data to predict future or current outcomes, is a method that can be used to combine the most predictive variables and their interactions efficiently. The use of an effective predictive model wi...

Research paper thumbnail of Cohort-level disease prediction by extrapolation of individual-level predictions in transition dairy cattle

Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2019

Dairy cattle experience metabolic stress during the transition from late gestation to early lacta... more Dairy cattle experience metabolic stress during the transition from late gestation to early lactation resulting in higher risk for several economically important diseases (e.g. mastitis, metritis, and ketosis). Metabolic stress is described as a physiological state composed of 3 processes: nutrient metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation. Current strategies for monitoring transition cow nutrient metabolism include assessment of plasma non-esterified fatty acids and beta-hydroxybutyrate concentrations around the time of calving. Although this method is effective at identifying cows with higher disease risk, there is often not enough time to implement intervention strategies to prevent health disorders from occurring around the time of calving. Previously, we published predictive models for early lactation diseases at the individual cow level at dry-off. We also previously investigated different methods of aggregating individual level biomarker data at dry off to predict cohort-level disease risk around the time of calving. However, it is unknown if predictive probabilities from individual-level models can be aggregated to the cohort level to predict cohort-level incidence. Therefore, our objective was to test different data aggregation methods using previously published models that represented the 3 components of metabolic stress (nutrient metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation). We included 277 cows from 5 Michigan dairy herds for this prospective cohort study. On each farm, 2-4 calving cohorts were formed, totaling 18 cohorts. We measured biomarker data at dry-off and followed the cows for 30 days post-parturition for cohort disease incidence, which was defined as the number of cows: 1) having one or more clinical transition disease outcome, and/or 2) having an adverse health event (abortion or death of calf or cow) within each cohort. We tested 3 different aggregation methods that we refer to as the p-central, p-dispersion, and p-count methods. For the p-central method, we calculated the averaged predicted probability within each cohort. For the p-dispersion method, we calculated the standard deviation of the predicted probabilities within a cohort. For the p-count method, we counted the number of cows above a specified threshold of predicted probability within each cohort. We built four sets of models: one for each aggregation method and one that included all three aggregation methods (p-combined method). We found that the p-dispersion method was the only method that produced viable predictive models. However, these models tended to overestimate incidence in cohorts with low observed counts and underestimate risk in cohorts with high observed counts. Abbreviations: negative energy balance (NEB); non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA); betahydroxybutyrate (BHB); body condition score (BCS); serum amyloid A (SAA); white blood cells (WBC); reactive oxygen species (ROS); Akaike Information Criteria (AIC); receiver operator characteristic (ROC); antioxidant potential (AOP); Dawid-Sebastiani scores (DSS)

Research paper thumbnail of Cohort-level disease prediction using aggregate biomarker data measured at dry-off in transition dairy cattle: A proof-of-concept study

Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2019

on goodness-of-fit, model calibration using scoring rules, and comparison of observed versus pred... more on goodness-of-fit, model calibration using scoring rules, and comparison of observed versus predicted counts. The central and the combined method produced models that had good fit and model calibration. These results indicate that it may be possible to use aggregate measures to predict cohort disease incidence as early as dry-off. The next step is to test biomarker aggregation methods in studies with larger sample sizes. Abbreviations: dry matter intake (DMI); negative energy balance (NEB); non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA); beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB); body condition score (BCS); acute phase proteins (APP); serum amyloid A (SAA); white blood cells (WBC); reactive oxygen species (ROS); Akaike Information Criteria (AIC); receiver operator characteristic (ROC); area under the curve (AUC); antioxidant potential (AOP); tumor necrosis factor (TNF); interleukin-1 (IL-1); interleukin-6 (IL-6); median absolute deviation (MAD); Dawid-Sebastiani scores (DSS)

Research paper thumbnail of The association of pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders in United States adults

Human-Animal Interactions

Prior studies on the association between pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders have... more Prior studies on the association between pet ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders have varied results. Pet ownership may be beneficial for an owner’s quality of sleep due to the social support that pets provide. Pets offer a sense of security and companionship, which may result in improvements in levels of anxiety, stress, and depression. Alternatively, pets may disrupt their owners’ sleep. Therefore, this cross-sectional study aimed to determine if there is an association between dog and cat ownership and sleep quality and sleep disorders using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted in 2005–2006. Separate multivariable logistic regression models were built to assess the association between pet ownership and sleep quality outcomes, which included the following: snoring, snorting, sleep disorder diagnoses, trouble sleeping, trouble falling asleep, waking up during the night, waking up too early, feeling unrested, feeling sleepy, n...

Research paper thumbnail of Outcomes of Heart Failure in COVID-19 Patients: An Appalachian Experience

Cardiology Research

Background: The Southeastern rural areas of the USA have a higher prevalence of heart failure (HF... more Background: The Southeastern rural areas of the USA have a higher prevalence of heart failure (HF). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is associated with poor outcomes in patients with HF. Our study aimed to compare the outcomes of hospitalized HF patients with and without COVID-19 infection specifically in rural parts of the USA. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HF patients with and without COVID-19 hospitalized in Southeastern rural parts of the USA by using the Appalachian Regional Healthcare System.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive Models for Weekly Cattle Mortality after Arrival at a Feeding Location Using Records, Weather, and Transport Data at Time of Purchase

Pathogens

Feedlot mortality negatively affects animal welfare and profitability. To the best of our knowled... more Feedlot mortality negatively affects animal welfare and profitability. To the best of our knowledge, there are no publications on predictive models for weekly all-cause mortality in feedlot cattle. In this study, random forest models to predict weekly mortality for cattle purchase groups (n = 14,217 purchase groups; 860,545 animals) from arrival at the feeding location (Day 1) to Day 42 and cumulative mortality from Day 43 until slaughter were built using records, weather, and transport data available at the time of purchase. Models were evaluated by calculating the root mean squared error (RMSE) and accuracy (as defined as the percent of purchase groups that had predictions within 0.25% and 0.50% of actual mortality). The models had high accuracy (>90%), but the RMSE estimates were high (range = 1.0% to 4.1%). The best predictors were maximum temperature and purchase weight, although this varied by week. The models performed well among purchase groups with low weekly mortality b...

Research paper thumbnail of Adherence with the multitarget stool DNA test for colorectal cancer screening in rural southeastern Kentucky

Journal of Clinical Oncology, Feb 1, 2022

<jats:p> 64 </jats:p><jats:p> Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has... more <jats:p> 64 </jats:p><jats:p> Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has shown to improve early detection and reduce mortality. Despite, the availability of multiple screening tests for CRC, the current screening rates remains below the national goal. The multi-target stool (MTS) DNA test (commercially known as Cologuard) has contributed to an increase in population adherence to CRC screening and is currently recommended by multiple guidelines. Southeastern Kentucky (SE KY) has a high incidence of colorectal cancer and a low rate of CRC screening. The aim of this study is to assess the adherence to the MTSDNA test in rural SE KY. Methods: A retrospective review of all patients 45 and older with a MTSDNA test ordered between August 2020 and February 2021 at a large primary care group in SE KY. All patients had Tests ordered and kits delivered. Cross-sectional adherence was defined as completion and return of the kit within 180 days from test order and was assessed as overall adherence and by patient characteristics including age, sex and healthcare coverage. Results: 450 tests were ordered. 160 (35%) were male and 290 (65%) females. Mean age was 62 with age range (46-87). 207 tests were returned with a cross-sectional adherence of 46%. Adherence was significantly lower for age 45 - 55 at 35.2% (26.2-45.2) compared to age 55 - 65 at 48.9% (40.9-56.3), 65 and older at 50.0% (42.3-57.7) (P = 0.04). Highest adherence with Medicaid coverage 65.4% [44.3-82.8] and lowest in Managed Care Organization (MCO) coverage 34.0% [4.7-44.2] (P &lt; 0.01). Gender was not associated with adherence (P = 0.75). Conclusions: This retrospective study showed that only 46% of patients were adherent to the MTS DNA test for colorectal screening which is significantly lower than previously reported in larger studies and further studies are needed to identify the barriers to non-adherence to this test, especially in the younger population with alarming increase in incidence of CRC. There is impending need to implement different strategies to improve screening adherence. </jats:p>

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Experiences, Behaviors, Beliefs, and Well-Being Among Students and Employees at a University In Rural Appalachia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Journal of Appalachian health, 2021

Introduction: Introduction: In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most univ... more Introduction: Introduction: In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most universities experienced drastic operational changes with shifts to online learning, work-from-home policies, and social distancing measures. These changes have caused concern for social isolation and mental health. Purpose: Purpose: This cross-sectional study explores differences in COVID-19 experiences, behaviors, beliefs, and well-being among students and employees (faculty and staff) at a rural Appalachian university. Methods: Methods: Data were collected with an online anonymous survey in September-October 2020 using convenience sampling. The survey measured multiple domains including COVID-19-related 1) beliefs, 2) symptoms and diagnoses, 3) exposure and preventive behavior, and 4) social, mental, and financial health. Chi-square tests and linear regression models were used to determine differences in survey responses between students and employees. Results: Results: The final sample used for analysis included 416 respondents. The majority of respondents believed COVID-19 was a serious disease and followed mask and social distancing guidelines, although employees were more likely to adhere to mask and social distancing guidelines compared to students. Most of the respondents (>50%) reported feeling more stressed, anxious, and sad since the pandemic began. Students were more impacted by the pandemic compared to employees as measured by the mental, social, and financial impact scale. A limitation of this study was that convenience sampling was used instead of a probability sampling technique, which limits the inference that can be made from the results. Implications Implications: There may be a need for greater mental health support among university employees and students. However, future studies should confirm these findings.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive modeling for the early identification of cattle at risk for transition diseases

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive modeling of bovine respiratory disease outcomes in feedlot cattle: A narrative review

Livestock Science, 2021

Abstract Predictive modeling, which aims to predict a current or future event, is a potential way... more Abstract Predictive modeling, which aims to predict a current or future event, is a potential way to improve identification of cattle at-risk for new onset bovine respiratory disease (BRD) and other BRD-related outcomes, including mortality, treatment response, relapse, and disease severity. Although recently there has been increased interest in predictive models for BRD-related outcomes, this research area remains largely unexplored. Many known risk factors and biomarkers for BRD have yet to be tested for their predictive value for BRD-related outcomes. Of the risk factors and biomarkers that have been assessed for predictive ability, many have not been externally validated in new samples (e.g. other feedlots or in new cohorts of cattle) or implemented in multivariable predictive models. This narrative review aims to discuss 1) special considerations for selecting and implementing predictive models for BRD-related outcomes in feedlot cattle, 2) the current research on predictive modeling for BRD-related outcomes in feedlot cattle, and 3) potential predictor variables. This narrative review highlights the need for research that focuses on developing accurate predictive models for BRD-related outcomes that are both practical and cost-effective for use at the feedlot. Potential predictor variables and methods are suggested.

Research paper thumbnail of Random-effects linear model application to herd-level assessment of bovine hepatic trace mineral concentrations

Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation, 2021

To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mine... more To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mineral status, we performed a retrospective analysis of the results for trace mineral testing of bovine liver samples submitted to the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between 2011 and 2017. Our aim was to examine random-effects models for their potential utility in improving interpretation with minimal sample numbers. The database consisted of 1,658 animals distributed among 121 herds. Minerals were assayed by inductively coupled plasma–mass spectroscopy, and included cobalt, copper, iron, molybdenum, manganese, selenium, and zinc. Intraclass correlation coefficients for each mineral were significantly different ( p < 0.001) from zero and ranged from 0.38 for manganese to 0.82 for selenium, indicating that the strength of herd effects, which are presumably related to diet, vary greatly by mineral. Analysis of the distribution and standard errors of best linear ...

Research paper thumbnail of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Among Rural Appalachian Healthcare Workers (Eastern Kentucky/West Virginia): A Cross-Sectional Study

Cureus, 2021

The success of a vaccination program is dependent on vaccine efficacy and the number of people va... more The success of a vaccination program is dependent on vaccine efficacy and the number of people vaccinated. Healthcare workers are the first to receive the COVID-19 vaccine based on CDC phase 1a recommendations and are a point of contact for information for patients, so they must be well-educated on common misconceptions about the vaccine. Objective To identify acceptance/refusal rates of COVID-19 vaccine, reasons for refusal, and to understand the impact of demographics, work environment, and comorbidities on vaccine acceptance. Methods

Research paper thumbnail of Efficacy of Green Tea Consumption on Reducing Body Mass Index and Insulin Resistance: A Meta‐Analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Weather conditions associated with death attributed to bovine respiratory disease complex in high-risk auction market–sourced male beef calves

American Journal of Veterinary Research, 2021

OBJECTIVE To evaluate associations between weather conditions and management factors with the inc... more OBJECTIVE To evaluate associations between weather conditions and management factors with the incidence of death attributable to bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) in high-risk auction-sourced beef calves. ANIMALS Cohorts (n = 3,339) of male beef calves (545,866) purchased by 1 large cattle feeding operation from 216 locations and transported to 1 of 89 feeding locations (backgrounding location or feedlot) with similar management protocols. PROCEDURES Associations between weather conditions and management factors on the day of purchase (day P) and during the first week at the feeding location and cumulative BRDC mortality incidence within the first 60 days on feed were estimated in a mixed-effects negative binomial regression model. RESULTS Significant factors in the final model were weaning status; degree of com-mingling; body weight; transport distance; season; precipitation, mean wind speed, and maximum environmental temperature on day P; environmental temperature range in...

Research paper thumbnail of Rumination time around dry-off relative to the development of diseases in early-lactation cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2021

Monitoring rumination time (RT) around the time of calving is an effective way of identifying cow... more Monitoring rumination time (RT) around the time of calving is an effective way of identifying cows at risk of disease in early lactation. However, this only allows for the identification of cows a few days before the onset of clinical signs; thus, effective preventive measures cannot be implemented. Recent research has suggested that biomarkers of immune and metabolic function measured at dry-off (DO) can predict higher disease risk in early lactation. Nevertheless, the extent to which RT around DO is associated with early-lactation disease risk remains unexplored. Thus, the objective of this study was to compare RT in the weeks before and after DO between cows that did and did not experience health disorders in early lactation. For this, we conducted an observational retrospective cohort study utilizing the records available from a large commercial dairy herd in which RT is recorded daily using an automated system. Daily RT from −7 to +14 d relative to DO from 2,258 DO cycles and their respective health records in the first 60 d in milk were used. Differences in RT between animals with and without a disease history were tested with the Student t-test with Bonferroni adjustment. Mixed linear regression analyses were performed to assess differences in RT around DO and the association of RT with the occurrence of mastitis, metritis, retained placenta, hyperketonemia, lameness, hypocalcemia, pneumonia, and displaced abomasum. Rumination time decreased abruptly at DO and remained lower for 3 to 4 d compared with the days before DO. On average, cows affected by hyperketonemia and lameness ruminated 9.83 ± 6.40 and 15.00 ± 6.08 min/d less than unaffected cows, respectively. Cows that developed lameness in the first 60 d in milk showed reduced RT from 1 to 3 d following DO compared with cows that were not diagnosed with lameness in early lactation. However, RT around DO was not associated with the occurrence of the other health disorders studied here. Our results demonstrate that DO is a stressful event for dairy cows resulting in decreased RT for several days. Furthermore, the association between RT around DO and some early-lactation diseases suggests that RT could be a useful tool to identify at-risk cows early enough to allow for preventive interventions. Further studies should investigate the diagnostic utility of incorporating RT data early in the dry period in the disease prediction algorithms of rumination sensors.

Research paper thumbnail of Serum Vitamin D Is Associated with Antioxidant Potential in Peri-Parturient Cows

Antioxidants, 2021

Dairy cows experience increased oxidative stress during periods of transition such as at the cess... more Dairy cows experience increased oxidative stress during periods of transition such as at the cessation of lactation and around the periparturient period, thus increasing disease risk. Despite routine supplementation of transition cow diets with certain vitamins in an attempt to mitigate oxidative stress, there is no currently available data directly linking vitamin supplementation with antioxidant potential (AOP) in transition cows. The objective of this study was to determine the association between serum vitamins and biomarkers of oxidative stress in healthy cows. Blood samples were collected from 240 cows at dry off (DO), close up (CU), and 2–10 days post-calving (DIM2-10). Blood samples were analyzed for vitamins (A, D, E), β-carotene, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and AOP. Spearman correlations and mixed linear regression models were used to assess associations between vitamins and measures of oxidant status. Vitamin D concentrations were positively associated with AOP at the ...

Research paper thumbnail of Serum retinol, β-carotene, and α-tocopherol as biomarkers for disease risk and milk production in periparturient dairy cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2021

The effectiveness of using serum vitamin concentrations as biomarkers to predict diseases in dair... more The effectiveness of using serum vitamin concentrations as biomarkers to predict diseases in dairy cows during the periparturient period is not well known. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between serum β-carotene, retinol, and α-tocopherol concentrations and periparturient cow diseases in commercial dairies. We measured serum concentrations of these vitamin-active compounds at dry-off and during close-up (approximately 3 wk before calving) and early lactation (approximately 7 d post-calving), and we examined their association with clinical diseases in the first 30 d in milk. Diseases were diagnosed by trained personnel and recorded using database software. Blood samples were taken from 353 cows from 5 different farms over a 3-yr period. Blood samples were analyzed for β-carotene, retinol, α-tocopherol, and cholesterol. We built separate mixed logistic regression models for each disease outcome: hyperketonuria, lameness, mastitis, uterine diseases (retained placenta or metritis), and an aggregate outcome. For the aggregate outcome, a cow was considered positive if she had one or more of the following: hyperketonuria, lameness, mastitis, uterine disease, pneumonia, milk fever, or displaced abomasum. Concentrations of all 3 fat-soluble vitamins decreased significantly in early lactation relative to the 2 prepartum sampling times. Serum retinol concentrations at close-up and early lactation were negatively associated with odds of developing postpartum hyperketonuria. At early lactation, cows with uterine disease had lower serum retinol concentrations than cows without uterine disease. Similarly, lower serum retinol concentrations were associated with greater odds of having any one disease in the aggregate outcome. First-test 305-d mature-equivalent milk yield was positively correlated with increased serum α-tocopherol and negatively correlated with β-carotene concentrations. This study demonstrates the potential for serum β-carotene, retinol, and α-tocopherol to serve as biomarkers for disease risk.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of gel fingernail polish application on the reduction of bacterial viability following a surgical hand scrub

Veterinary Surgery, 2021

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of gel nail polish application on the reduction of bacterial vi... more OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of gel nail polish application on the reduction of bacterial viability immediately after a surgical hand scrub. STUDY DESIGN Randomized controlled trial. SAMPLE POPULATION Ten fingernails each from 40 female health care professionals and students. METHODS Participants' fingernails were randomized to receive no polish or gel nail polish during a manicure from a licensed manicurist. One day and 14 days after manicure, participants' fingernails were sampled before and after a surgical hand scrub with chlorhexidine gluconate. The samples for each fingernail were serially diluted, plated on a Trypsin sheep blood agar and MacConkey's agar plate, and incubated for 36 h. For each plate, bacterial colony forming units (CFU)/ml were determined. Mixed linear models were used to assess factors associated with the logarithmic reduction of viable bacterial counts from pre- to post-surgical scrub. RESULTS In the final model, no association was detected between gel nail polish and reduction of viable bacterial count (p = .09). On Day 14, among longer nail lengths (2 to <3-mm and ≥3-mm), surgical scrubs resulted in greater reduction in bacterial counts in left-handed than right-handed participants (p < .01). Increasing nail length was correlated with increased CFU/ml post-scrubbing (p < .001). CONCLUSION Application of gel nail polish did not seem to affect the ability of surgical scrub to reduce bacterial viability 1 and 14 days after a manicure. CLINICAL IMPACT This study does not provide evidence to prevent application of gel nail polish on short fingernails in surgeons prior to surgical hand scrub with chlorhexidine gluconate.

Research paper thumbnail of Changes in bovine leukemia virus serological status and lymphocyte count between dry-off and early lactation in Michigan dairy cows

Journal of Dairy Science, 2020

This study addresses how the serological status of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and lymphocyte cou... more This study addresses how the serological status of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) and lymphocyte count fluctuate from dry-off to early lactation in dairy cattle. Very few studies have investigated how BLV antibody status and lymphocyte count of cows changes longitudinally during the lactation cycle. Blood samples were collected from dairy cattle (n = 149) on 5 commercial dairy herds in Michigan at dry-off, close-up, and 7 to 10 d after calving. Plasma was analyzed for anti-BLV antibodies using a BLV-ELISA and whole blood was analyzed for lymphocyte counts. We found that BLV seroprevalence increased from dry-off (38.9%) to closeup (43.6%), then slightly decreased from close-up to 7 to 10 d after calving (43.0%). However, the change in seroprevalence was only significant from dry-off to close-up. Cows of third or higher parity were more likely to seroconvert than cows of lower parity and had the highest ELISA-negative prevalence of BLV. Lymphocyte counts were significantly higher in ELISApositive animals, but only among second and third or greater parity animals. These results indicate that the use of lymphocyte counts as a disease severity monitoring tool for BLV should differ by parity group. Future studies should investigate if changes in seroprevalence are due to new infections or natural changes in antibody concentrations as the cow prepares for colostrum production. More accurate lymphocyte guidelines to be used for monitoring the progression of BLV should be created that consider parity and lactation stage.

Research paper thumbnail of Serum vitamin D concentrations at dry-off and close-up predict increased postpartum urine ketone concentrations in dairy cattle

Journal of Dairy Science, 2019

Vitamin D is commonly supplemented to dairy cows as vitamin D 3 to support calcium homeostasis an... more Vitamin D is commonly supplemented to dairy cows as vitamin D 3 to support calcium homeostasis and in times of low sunlight exposure. Vitamin D has beneficial immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations fluctuated during lactation, with the lowest concentrations measured in healthy cows within 7 d of calving. However, it is unknown if serum 25(OH)D concentrations measured during the previous lactation are associated with transition diseases or health risk factors in dairy cattle. We collected serum samples from 279 dairy cattle from 5 commercial dairy herds in Michigan at dry-off, close-up, and 2-10 d in milk (DIM). Vitamin D concentrations were determined by measuring serum 25(OH)D by radioimmunoassay. Total serum calcium was measured by colorimetric methods. Body condition scores (BCS) were assigned at the time of blood collection. Clinical disease incidence was monitored until 30 d postparturition. Separate bivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine if serum 25(OH)D at dry-off, close-up, and 2-10 DIM was associated with various clinical diseases including mastitis, lameness, and uterine disorders (classified as metritis, retained placenta, or both) and increased urine ketone concentrations at P < 0.05. Among all significant bivariable analyses, multivariable logistic regression analyses were built to adjust for potential confounding variables including parity, BCS, season, and calcium. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine optimal concentrations of serum 25(OH)D. We found that higher serum 25(OH)D concentrations at dry-off and close-up predicted increased urine ketone concentrations in early lactation, even after adjustment for confounders. Alternatively, we found that lower serum 25(OH)D at 2-10 DIM was associated with uterine diseases. Optimal concentrations for serum 25(OH)D at dry-off and close-up for lower risk of increased urine ketone concentrations were below 103.4 and 91.1 ng/ mL, respectively. The optimal concentration for serum 25(OH)D at 2-10 DIM for uterine diseases was above 71.4 ng/mL. These results indicate that serum 25(OH) D at dry-off and close-up may be a novel predictive biomarker for increased urine ketone concentrations during early lactation. Increased urine ketone concentrations are not necessarily harmful or diagnostic for ketosis but do indicate development of negative energy balance, metabolic stress, and increased risk of early lactation diseases. Predicting that dairy cattle are at increased risk of disease facilitates implementation of intervention strategies that may lower disease incidence. Future studies should confirm these findings and determine the utility of serum 25(OH)D concentrations as a predictive biomarker for clinical and subclinical ketosis.

Research paper thumbnail of Prospects for predictive modeling of transition cow diseases

Animal Health Research Reviews, 2019

Transition cow diseases can negatively impact animal welfare and reduce dairy herd profitability.... more Transition cow diseases can negatively impact animal welfare and reduce dairy herd profitability. Transition cow disease incidence has remained relatively stable over time despite monitoring and management efforts aimed to reduce the risk of developing diseases. Dairy cattle disease risk is monitored by assessing multiple factors, including certain biomarker test results, health records, feed intake, body condition score, and milk production. However, these factors, which are used to make herd management decisions, are often reviewed separately without considering the correlation between them. In addition, the biomarkers that are currently used for monitoring may not be representative of the complex physiological changes that occur during the transition period. Predictive modeling, which uses data to predict future or current outcomes, is a method that can be used to combine the most predictive variables and their interactions efficiently. The use of an effective predictive model wi...

Research paper thumbnail of Cohort-level disease prediction by extrapolation of individual-level predictions in transition dairy cattle

Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2019

Dairy cattle experience metabolic stress during the transition from late gestation to early lacta... more Dairy cattle experience metabolic stress during the transition from late gestation to early lactation resulting in higher risk for several economically important diseases (e.g. mastitis, metritis, and ketosis). Metabolic stress is described as a physiological state composed of 3 processes: nutrient metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation. Current strategies for monitoring transition cow nutrient metabolism include assessment of plasma non-esterified fatty acids and beta-hydroxybutyrate concentrations around the time of calving. Although this method is effective at identifying cows with higher disease risk, there is often not enough time to implement intervention strategies to prevent health disorders from occurring around the time of calving. Previously, we published predictive models for early lactation diseases at the individual cow level at dry-off. We also previously investigated different methods of aggregating individual level biomarker data at dry off to predict cohort-level disease risk around the time of calving. However, it is unknown if predictive probabilities from individual-level models can be aggregated to the cohort level to predict cohort-level incidence. Therefore, our objective was to test different data aggregation methods using previously published models that represented the 3 components of metabolic stress (nutrient metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation). We included 277 cows from 5 Michigan dairy herds for this prospective cohort study. On each farm, 2-4 calving cohorts were formed, totaling 18 cohorts. We measured biomarker data at dry-off and followed the cows for 30 days post-parturition for cohort disease incidence, which was defined as the number of cows: 1) having one or more clinical transition disease outcome, and/or 2) having an adverse health event (abortion or death of calf or cow) within each cohort. We tested 3 different aggregation methods that we refer to as the p-central, p-dispersion, and p-count methods. For the p-central method, we calculated the averaged predicted probability within each cohort. For the p-dispersion method, we calculated the standard deviation of the predicted probabilities within a cohort. For the p-count method, we counted the number of cows above a specified threshold of predicted probability within each cohort. We built four sets of models: one for each aggregation method and one that included all three aggregation methods (p-combined method). We found that the p-dispersion method was the only method that produced viable predictive models. However, these models tended to overestimate incidence in cohorts with low observed counts and underestimate risk in cohorts with high observed counts. Abbreviations: negative energy balance (NEB); non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA); betahydroxybutyrate (BHB); body condition score (BCS); serum amyloid A (SAA); white blood cells (WBC); reactive oxygen species (ROS); Akaike Information Criteria (AIC); receiver operator characteristic (ROC); antioxidant potential (AOP); Dawid-Sebastiani scores (DSS)

Research paper thumbnail of Cohort-level disease prediction using aggregate biomarker data measured at dry-off in transition dairy cattle: A proof-of-concept study

Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2019

on goodness-of-fit, model calibration using scoring rules, and comparison of observed versus pred... more on goodness-of-fit, model calibration using scoring rules, and comparison of observed versus predicted counts. The central and the combined method produced models that had good fit and model calibration. These results indicate that it may be possible to use aggregate measures to predict cohort disease incidence as early as dry-off. The next step is to test biomarker aggregation methods in studies with larger sample sizes. Abbreviations: dry matter intake (DMI); negative energy balance (NEB); non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA); beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB); body condition score (BCS); acute phase proteins (APP); serum amyloid A (SAA); white blood cells (WBC); reactive oxygen species (ROS); Akaike Information Criteria (AIC); receiver operator characteristic (ROC); area under the curve (AUC); antioxidant potential (AOP); tumor necrosis factor (TNF); interleukin-1 (IL-1); interleukin-6 (IL-6); median absolute deviation (MAD); Dawid-Sebastiani scores (DSS)