Lee Cordner - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Lee Cordner
Auerbach Publications eBooks, Sep 24, 2008
Newsletter - Committee for the Establishement of an Australian Centre for Maritime Studies, May 1, 2008
However, adopting the latter option would present the greatest risk for the nation and its future... more However, adopting the latter option would present the greatest risk for the nation and its future. Government failure to address major national security risks would be at odds with the fundamental obligation to provide for security with which it is entrusted by the Australian people.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Nation-states remain the primary actors in the international system. Prospects for regional and e... more Nation-states remain the primary actors in the international system. Prospects for regional and extra-regional states’ involvement in maritime security risk treatment and vulnerability reduction efforts in the Indian Ocean region are evaluated. States’ exposures to maritime risks and vulnerabilities are also briefly reviewed. The likelihood of leadership and contributions from the major regional power, India, and middle powers, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan, are assessed. Smaller states are briefly reviewed: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar; plus island states: Mauritius, the Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros and the Maldives; and East African states: Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. Finally, prospects for selected external states’ involvement are assessed: France (both a regional and an extra-regional state), the United States, China, Japan and Russia.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) converge at... more The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) converge at sea. The sea lines of communication are the world’s most important. In the medium term, the oceanic environment impacted by climate change generates the greatest security challenges. Massive humanitarian and ecological crises will overwhelm adaptation and response capacities. Procrastination will result in unmitigated disasters beyond current experience, with significant maritime security consequences. A proposed way ahead is to conceptualize the IOR as an integrated maritime system in which participants have mutual objectives threatened by common risks and shared vulnerabilities. Evidence from risk-based approaches can identify opportunities and actions for cooperative and collective maritime security. Appropriately resourced policy-level strategic risk assessments, combined with strong leadership and political will, are required.
Springer eBooks, Nov 4, 2017
Traditional and contemporary concepts of maritime security are explored, along with concepts of r... more Traditional and contemporary concepts of maritime security are explored, along with concepts of risk and vulnerability, as they apply to strategic analysis. A brief epistemological scan supports the development of a conceptual basis for understanding the nexus between security, risk and vulnerability. The emerging convergence between security and risk, as normative concepts, is identified. Theoretical constructs are drawn together to develop a composite framework with practical applications for complex international security contexts. A universal definition of maritime security is proposed that includes traditional and non-traditional security challenges and encompasses notions of risk and vulnerability. Common theoretical bases and workable definitions likely to be acceptable to the majority of actors are necessary precursors to practical collective and cooperative maritime security advancement in the Indian Ocean.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
The diverse Indian Ocean region is growing in importance as a global geopolitical focal area. The... more The diverse Indian Ocean region is growing in importance as a global geopolitical focal area. The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors overlap and converge at sea. Emerging traditional and non-traditional security factors pose regional maritime security imperatives. A dearth of regional arrangements, history and habits of collaboration present significant challenges to developing cooperative and collective maritime security approaches. Concepts of risk and vulnerability, when combined with notions of security, offer the potential for constructing approaches that can foster an understanding of shared risks and common vulnerabilities that can lead to cooperative maritime security risk treatments. Composite security, risk and vulnerability analytical approaches are advocated as providing a conceptual framework to develop and promote enhanced cooperative and collective maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
Sincere and special thanks to my wife, Ann Farrell, who has travelled every inch of this journey ... more Sincere and special thanks to my wife, Ann Farrell, who has travelled every inch of this journey with me. In addition to her understanding and unstinting support, her contribution as an experienced legal editor in proof reading the final drafts of the thesis has been invaluable. Thanks also to my parents, Beryle and Eric Cordner, and my daughters Nicola and Katrina, for their support.
Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation activity is expanding massively ... more Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation activity is expanding massively in economically and strategically important, environmentally sensitive areas. The risks of offshore oil and gas safety and security incidents that could have regional economic, environmental, human, food, and energy consequences are rising. In addition to man-induced incidents, the often crowded waters of the Indo-Pacific are particularly prone to natural hazards like extreme weather events and seismic activity. The possibility of armed conflict at sea, law and order issues, increasing maritime user intensity, decommissioned installations, and jurisdictional uncertainty add to concerns. Measures to deal with large scale offshore oil and gas safety and security events are often not well developed. Vulnerabilities arise from the lack of capacity and the lack of regional coordination regimes to prevent, respond to and recover from incidents. Some regional states are not parties to relevant international regimes; collective and cooperative maritime safety and security arrangements are lacking. Collaboration between states and other actors: regional entities and industry, is necessary and presents mutually beneficial opportunities; progress should be a high priority. Realistic and uncomfortable expectations must be faced. Sovereignty issues combined with greed for energy resources and commercial benefit may well continue to dominate. The likelihood of offshore oil and gas safety and security disasters in the Indo-Pacific, with major regional consequences, will continue to rise.
New security challenges, 2018
I commend Lee Cordner for this project. The Indian Ocean region is crucial to our security and pr... more I commend Lee Cordner for this project. The Indian Ocean region is crucial to our security and prosperity. This book provides unique and useful insights into maritime security and policy challenges in a region that lacks established security architectures that we deal with in other parts of the world.
Naval War College Review, 1994
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
A strategic risk assessment approach is employed to demonstrate its utility in the evolving Indo-... more A strategic risk assessment approach is employed to demonstrate its utility in the evolving Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas context. Shared objectives are defined, and common risks and vulnerabilities are identified. Massive expansions in offshore exploration and exploitation will continue in the East and South China Seas, northwest of Australia, Bay of Bengal, India’s west coast and off East Africa. The region is not well prepared to deal with major safety and security incidents typified by recent Deepwater Horizon (USA) and West Atlas (Australia) oil spills. Risk factors include man-induced failures, regulatory and maritime boundary uncertainties, increasing maritime user intensity, environmental protection concerns, law and order at sea, and armed conflict. Regional- and national-level risk mitigation and treatment considerations and options are recommended.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
A key consideration for treating maritime security risks in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) is the ... more A key consideration for treating maritime security risks in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) is the efficacy of regional security architectures: regimes, arrangements, entities and stakeholder relationships. The state of regionalism and security governance arrangements in the IOR is contrasted with the western Pacific region. Arrangements in the IOR, which include the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, are at a relatively nascent stage of development. This presents challenges for regional security cooperation and collective action; it also offers opportunities for devising innovative approaches to addressing regional maritime security risks. Prospects for improving Indian Ocean regional governance arrangements are explored and the implications of enhancing regional maritime security to treat risks and reduce vulnerabilities are assessed.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Establishing the risk context is an essential first step in a strategic risk and vulnerability an... more Establishing the risk context is an essential first step in a strategic risk and vulnerability analysis of Indian Ocean region maritime security. The focus is on the Indian Ocean as an integrated maritime system; 15 generic, shared strategic objectives are proposed. Traditional and non-traditional security factors are considered. Areas explored include: law of the sea; globalization, economy and trade; energy; social cohesion and development; interstate competition and traditional conflict; safety in the maritime domain; regional security architectures; and the marine environment, climate change and ocean resources. The risk context analysis informs how maritime security interfaces with and contributes to other aspects of regional security, for example, economic, environmental, human, food and energy. Subsequent risk assessment and treatment considerations are founded upon contextual judgments.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Major risks that impact the achievement of strategic objectives and, consequently, the security o... more Major risks that impact the achievement of strategic objectives and, consequently, the security of the Indian Ocean region maritime system are outlined. Generic evaluation criteria are defined to enable likelihood, consequences and overall risk impacts to be assessed. Nineteen strategic risks are identified, along with shared vulnerabilities. These are cross-referenced to the 15 strategic objectives discussed in Chap. 3. Relationships are not linear; in many cases, objectives are affected by multiple risks and vice versa; cumulative and aggregated risks must also be considered. Risks to maritime navigation, sovereignty, energy and environment, and those from the lack of regional security architectures are high on the list. Understanding risks and vulnerabilities aids in targeting opportunities for improvements and enhancements to regional maritime security. A necessary basis is provided for risk treatment and vulnerability reduction efforts.
Australian journal of maritime and ocean affairs, 2010
Abstract The Indian Ocean region (IOR) is fast becoming a major area of global political and secu... more Abstract The Indian Ocean region (IOR) is fast becoming a major area of global political and security interest. The region’s political and security context is quickly changing due mainly to expanding and competing Chinese and Indian spheres of influence along with relatively declining United States power. Traditional security concerns like maintenance of the freedom of maritime navigation and unfettered access to and transport of vital energy supplies are increasing in importance in the Indian Ocean. In addition, non-traditional security threats emanating from the impacts of climate change and the effects of population and industrial growth are presenting major resource management and environmental, human and food security challenges. These security challenges largely converge in the maritime domain. It is imperative that IOR-wide maritime security cooperation be progressed. Regional and extra-regional nation-states have interests to protect and capacities to contribute to IOR security. Arrangements need to be devised to accommodate the involvement of both. In this article it is argued that greater attention needs to be given to Indian Ocean maritime security and the development of IOR maritime security regimes need to be pursued as a matter of urgency.
Journal of The Indian Ocean Region, Jun 1, 2010
The Indian Ocean Region is moving to the centre of the global geostrategic agenda. Resource compe... more The Indian Ocean Region is moving to the centre of the global geostrategic agenda. Resource competition and energy security, environmental and economic issues exacerbated by climate change; the involvement of external powers like China, and the emergence of regional powers like India underscore a heightened need for attention to this region. Concomitantly, Indian Ocean sea lines of communication are becoming increasingly important to global and regional commerce. Related security issues largely converge in the maritime domain. There is little history of region-wide security cooperation and a lack of regional institutions in the Indian Ocean Region. Non-conventional threats posing collective security risks to common interests present the most realisable prospects, at least initially, for the development of collective security dialogue and mechanisms. Such arrangements need to involve both regional and extra-regional powers that have interests to protect and capacities to assist. Given geography and the diverse nature of the region, maritime security offers the most compelling area for cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region. Efforts to facilitate collective security dialogue and establish maritime security cooperative mechanisms and habits need to be urgently progressed at official, non-official and operational levels.
Journal of The Indian Ocean Region, Jul 3, 2015
Auerbach Publications eBooks, Sep 24, 2008
Auerbach Publications eBooks, Sep 24, 2008
Newsletter - Committee for the Establishement of an Australian Centre for Maritime Studies, May 1, 2008
However, adopting the latter option would present the greatest risk for the nation and its future... more However, adopting the latter option would present the greatest risk for the nation and its future. Government failure to address major national security risks would be at odds with the fundamental obligation to provide for security with which it is entrusted by the Australian people.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Nation-states remain the primary actors in the international system. Prospects for regional and e... more Nation-states remain the primary actors in the international system. Prospects for regional and extra-regional states’ involvement in maritime security risk treatment and vulnerability reduction efforts in the Indian Ocean region are evaluated. States’ exposures to maritime risks and vulnerabilities are also briefly reviewed. The likelihood of leadership and contributions from the major regional power, India, and middle powers, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan, are assessed. Smaller states are briefly reviewed: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar; plus island states: Mauritius, the Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros and the Maldives; and East African states: Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. Finally, prospects for selected external states’ involvement are assessed: France (both a regional and an extra-regional state), the United States, China, Japan and Russia.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) converge at... more The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) converge at sea. The sea lines of communication are the world’s most important. In the medium term, the oceanic environment impacted by climate change generates the greatest security challenges. Massive humanitarian and ecological crises will overwhelm adaptation and response capacities. Procrastination will result in unmitigated disasters beyond current experience, with significant maritime security consequences. A proposed way ahead is to conceptualize the IOR as an integrated maritime system in which participants have mutual objectives threatened by common risks and shared vulnerabilities. Evidence from risk-based approaches can identify opportunities and actions for cooperative and collective maritime security. Appropriately resourced policy-level strategic risk assessments, combined with strong leadership and political will, are required.
Springer eBooks, Nov 4, 2017
Traditional and contemporary concepts of maritime security are explored, along with concepts of r... more Traditional and contemporary concepts of maritime security are explored, along with concepts of risk and vulnerability, as they apply to strategic analysis. A brief epistemological scan supports the development of a conceptual basis for understanding the nexus between security, risk and vulnerability. The emerging convergence between security and risk, as normative concepts, is identified. Theoretical constructs are drawn together to develop a composite framework with practical applications for complex international security contexts. A universal definition of maritime security is proposed that includes traditional and non-traditional security challenges and encompasses notions of risk and vulnerability. Common theoretical bases and workable definitions likely to be acceptable to the majority of actors are necessary precursors to practical collective and cooperative maritime security advancement in the Indian Ocean.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
The diverse Indian Ocean region is growing in importance as a global geopolitical focal area. The... more The diverse Indian Ocean region is growing in importance as a global geopolitical focal area. The objectives of regional and extra-regional actors overlap and converge at sea. Emerging traditional and non-traditional security factors pose regional maritime security imperatives. A dearth of regional arrangements, history and habits of collaboration present significant challenges to developing cooperative and collective maritime security approaches. Concepts of risk and vulnerability, when combined with notions of security, offer the potential for constructing approaches that can foster an understanding of shared risks and common vulnerabilities that can lead to cooperative maritime security risk treatments. Composite security, risk and vulnerability analytical approaches are advocated as providing a conceptual framework to develop and promote enhanced cooperative and collective maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
Sincere and special thanks to my wife, Ann Farrell, who has travelled every inch of this journey ... more Sincere and special thanks to my wife, Ann Farrell, who has travelled every inch of this journey with me. In addition to her understanding and unstinting support, her contribution as an experienced legal editor in proof reading the final drafts of the thesis has been invaluable. Thanks also to my parents, Beryle and Eric Cordner, and my daughters Nicola and Katrina, for their support.
Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation activity is expanding massively ... more Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation activity is expanding massively in economically and strategically important, environmentally sensitive areas. The risks of offshore oil and gas safety and security incidents that could have regional economic, environmental, human, food, and energy consequences are rising. In addition to man-induced incidents, the often crowded waters of the Indo-Pacific are particularly prone to natural hazards like extreme weather events and seismic activity. The possibility of armed conflict at sea, law and order issues, increasing maritime user intensity, decommissioned installations, and jurisdictional uncertainty add to concerns. Measures to deal with large scale offshore oil and gas safety and security events are often not well developed. Vulnerabilities arise from the lack of capacity and the lack of regional coordination regimes to prevent, respond to and recover from incidents. Some regional states are not parties to relevant international regimes; collective and cooperative maritime safety and security arrangements are lacking. Collaboration between states and other actors: regional entities and industry, is necessary and presents mutually beneficial opportunities; progress should be a high priority. Realistic and uncomfortable expectations must be faced. Sovereignty issues combined with greed for energy resources and commercial benefit may well continue to dominate. The likelihood of offshore oil and gas safety and security disasters in the Indo-Pacific, with major regional consequences, will continue to rise.
New security challenges, 2018
I commend Lee Cordner for this project. The Indian Ocean region is crucial to our security and pr... more I commend Lee Cordner for this project. The Indian Ocean region is crucial to our security and prosperity. This book provides unique and useful insights into maritime security and policy challenges in a region that lacks established security architectures that we deal with in other parts of the world.
Naval War College Review, 1994
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
A strategic risk assessment approach is employed to demonstrate its utility in the evolving Indo-... more A strategic risk assessment approach is employed to demonstrate its utility in the evolving Indo-Pacific offshore oil and gas context. Shared objectives are defined, and common risks and vulnerabilities are identified. Massive expansions in offshore exploration and exploitation will continue in the East and South China Seas, northwest of Australia, Bay of Bengal, India’s west coast and off East Africa. The region is not well prepared to deal with major safety and security incidents typified by recent Deepwater Horizon (USA) and West Atlas (Australia) oil spills. Risk factors include man-induced failures, regulatory and maritime boundary uncertainties, increasing maritime user intensity, environmental protection concerns, law and order at sea, and armed conflict. Regional- and national-level risk mitigation and treatment considerations and options are recommended.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
A key consideration for treating maritime security risks in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) is the ... more A key consideration for treating maritime security risks in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) is the efficacy of regional security architectures: regimes, arrangements, entities and stakeholder relationships. The state of regionalism and security governance arrangements in the IOR is contrasted with the western Pacific region. Arrangements in the IOR, which include the Indian Ocean Rim Association and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, are at a relatively nascent stage of development. This presents challenges for regional security cooperation and collective action; it also offers opportunities for devising innovative approaches to addressing regional maritime security risks. Prospects for improving Indian Ocean regional governance arrangements are explored and the implications of enhancing regional maritime security to treat risks and reduce vulnerabilities are assessed.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Establishing the risk context is an essential first step in a strategic risk and vulnerability an... more Establishing the risk context is an essential first step in a strategic risk and vulnerability analysis of Indian Ocean region maritime security. The focus is on the Indian Ocean as an integrated maritime system; 15 generic, shared strategic objectives are proposed. Traditional and non-traditional security factors are considered. Areas explored include: law of the sea; globalization, economy and trade; energy; social cohesion and development; interstate competition and traditional conflict; safety in the maritime domain; regional security architectures; and the marine environment, climate change and ocean resources. The risk context analysis informs how maritime security interfaces with and contributes to other aspects of regional security, for example, economic, environmental, human, food and energy. Subsequent risk assessment and treatment considerations are founded upon contextual judgments.
New security challenges, Nov 4, 2017
Major risks that impact the achievement of strategic objectives and, consequently, the security o... more Major risks that impact the achievement of strategic objectives and, consequently, the security of the Indian Ocean region maritime system are outlined. Generic evaluation criteria are defined to enable likelihood, consequences and overall risk impacts to be assessed. Nineteen strategic risks are identified, along with shared vulnerabilities. These are cross-referenced to the 15 strategic objectives discussed in Chap. 3. Relationships are not linear; in many cases, objectives are affected by multiple risks and vice versa; cumulative and aggregated risks must also be considered. Risks to maritime navigation, sovereignty, energy and environment, and those from the lack of regional security architectures are high on the list. Understanding risks and vulnerabilities aids in targeting opportunities for improvements and enhancements to regional maritime security. A necessary basis is provided for risk treatment and vulnerability reduction efforts.
Australian journal of maritime and ocean affairs, 2010
Abstract The Indian Ocean region (IOR) is fast becoming a major area of global political and secu... more Abstract The Indian Ocean region (IOR) is fast becoming a major area of global political and security interest. The region’s political and security context is quickly changing due mainly to expanding and competing Chinese and Indian spheres of influence along with relatively declining United States power. Traditional security concerns like maintenance of the freedom of maritime navigation and unfettered access to and transport of vital energy supplies are increasing in importance in the Indian Ocean. In addition, non-traditional security threats emanating from the impacts of climate change and the effects of population and industrial growth are presenting major resource management and environmental, human and food security challenges. These security challenges largely converge in the maritime domain. It is imperative that IOR-wide maritime security cooperation be progressed. Regional and extra-regional nation-states have interests to protect and capacities to contribute to IOR security. Arrangements need to be devised to accommodate the involvement of both. In this article it is argued that greater attention needs to be given to Indian Ocean maritime security and the development of IOR maritime security regimes need to be pursued as a matter of urgency.
Journal of The Indian Ocean Region, Jun 1, 2010
The Indian Ocean Region is moving to the centre of the global geostrategic agenda. Resource compe... more The Indian Ocean Region is moving to the centre of the global geostrategic agenda. Resource competition and energy security, environmental and economic issues exacerbated by climate change; the involvement of external powers like China, and the emergence of regional powers like India underscore a heightened need for attention to this region. Concomitantly, Indian Ocean sea lines of communication are becoming increasingly important to global and regional commerce. Related security issues largely converge in the maritime domain. There is little history of region-wide security cooperation and a lack of regional institutions in the Indian Ocean Region. Non-conventional threats posing collective security risks to common interests present the most realisable prospects, at least initially, for the development of collective security dialogue and mechanisms. Such arrangements need to involve both regional and extra-regional powers that have interests to protect and capacities to assist. Given geography and the diverse nature of the region, maritime security offers the most compelling area for cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region. Efforts to facilitate collective security dialogue and establish maritime security cooperative mechanisms and habits need to be urgently progressed at official, non-official and operational levels.
Journal of The Indian Ocean Region, Jul 3, 2015
Auerbach Publications eBooks, Sep 24, 2008