Leonid Issaev - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Leonid Issaev
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
The Yemen Arab Republic, the current borders of which were carved in 1990, was the embodiment of ... more The Yemen Arab Republic, the current borders of which were carved in 1990, was the embodiment of the aspiration of two formerly existing Yemeni states, the Northern and the Southern, for political unity-with the preservation of regional specificity. Nevertheless, the political turmoil that struck Yemen in the 1990s did not allow the country to introduce federal approaches: North steamrolled South. After the overthrow of the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh provoked by the Arab Spring, the transition to a 'fair' territorial and administrative state model came to the fore. The General Peoples Dialogue which concluded in 2014, envisaged the transformation of Yemen from a unitary state into a federal one. Moreover, the discussion on this issue revealed a fairly large variety of federal projects that were brought up for discussion by various political actors. External intervention in the Yemeni civil war temporarily drowned the discussion, but by the end of the 2010s, it became clear that the local parties to the conflict were ready again for talks about federalism-and, possibly, even for the practical implementation of a federal project. Keywords Yemen • Arab Spring • Federal projects • Civil war • Unification of Yemen • Federation of South Arabia • Houthi movement The Saudi intervention, which began in the spring of 2015, has once again aggravated the North-South divide for which Yemen is infamous. The interference from outside has once again shown that despite being parts of a formally unified state, the northern and southern Yemeni territories still interact weakly with one another, and political and economic ties between them are largely ephemeral. This tragic reminder once again introduces the issue of federalism into the discursive field of both local elites and foreign political scientists. The debate on the federalization of Yemen, which started right after the Arab Spring and died out with the start of the Saudi invasion, has been resurrected again with a renewed vigor. The main reason for it to remain hot and, possibly, politically productive, is the rich background of divides and alliances for which Yemen is well-known. According to one researcher, "clearly, the concept of decentralization and federalism has long been part of Yemen's history and the collective memory of Yemenis" (Al-Akhali 2014: 2). Nonetheless, it should be noted that federalism is "a complex process fraught with difficulty and one that can take
В 2013–2014 гг. мир столкнулся с новой довольно слабой (но при этом и достаточно своеобразной) ре... more В 2013–2014 гг. мир столкнулся с новой довольно слабой (но при этом и достаточно своеобразной) революционной волной. Волна протестов в Каире, Киеве и Бангкоке привели к падению режимов (в первом и третьем случае при прямом участии военных); волны протестов в Тунисе, Каракасе, Стамбуле – Анкаре и Сараево бросили серьёзный вызов соответствующим режимам, но не привели к их свержению. Выявлено общее между этими волнами дестабилизации, произошедшими хоть и синхронно в столь далеких на первый взгляд (и географически, и цивилизационно) странах, как Венесуэла, Украина и Таиланд.
Article history: Received 9 July 2016 Accepted 8 August 2016 Available online 4 October 2016 Ther... more Article history: Received 9 July 2016 Accepted 8 August 2016 Available online 4 October 2016 There are grounds to conclude that in 2011–2012 theWorld System experienced to some extent a phase transition to a qualitatively new state of global protest activity. This phase transition is shown to bear some resemblance to the one which the World System experienced in the early 1960s. The first (after 1919) phase transition of this sort occurred in the early 1960s and was related to the growth of global informational connectivity after WorldWar II, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of television, portable radio receivers, portable electric loud-speakers and other technologies of the Fourth Kondratieff Cycle. The phase transition of the early 2010swas prepared by a newwave of growth of global informational connectivity, as well as the improvement of themeans of protest self-organization due to the spread of various technologies of the Fi...
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 2021
Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since... more Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s actions in the region have began to acquire a less ideologically driving and more pragmatic character. However, the Arab Spring and conflict in Ukraine have underscored a more aggressive policy on the part of Russia, the quintessence of which was military intervention in an armed conflict far from its borders, in Syria. Largely Russian intervention to Syria was a tool for Kremlin to resolve internal problems, and a bargaining chip in relations with global and regional actors. At the same time the declining in public interest in foreign policy, as well as the high costs of military presence in the Middle East, in the short term will force the Kremlin to respond to demands from domestic audiences. The resolution of this problem will define the future of Russia in the MENA region. It will either be an ‘honest broker’ in regional conflicts, or have...
Social Evolution & History, 2016
The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16 century’ was transformed int... more The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16 century’ was transformed into the global World System comprised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Central Asian (including Afghanistan and Pakistan), the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. We suggest considering these four zones as a single Afrasian macrozone of instability. We show that this zone correlates rather closely with the zone of traditional prevalence of the parallel cousin marriage, as well as with the zone of very low female labor force participation rate, and the territory of the Umayyad Califate. The article demonstrates that this correlation is not coincidental and also discusses the factors and mechanisms that have produced it.
Bio Systems, 2020
The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the curre... more The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the current situation of sociopolitical (in)stability of the developing and developed societies in question, provide an inertial forecast of the developing situation in a given period, analyse threats to stability threats, and examine possible measures to counteract such threats and their likely influence on the situation. The methodology is based on modeling sociopolitical stability in the country in question with the help of an elaborate logical-mathematical model.
Orthodox Christianity arguably constitutes the foundation of the entire Russian cultural spectrum... more Orthodox Christianity arguably constitutes the foundation of the entire Russian cultural spectrum. The majority of Russians feel close to the eastern Christian tradition and identify with it to varying degrees. Thus, Orthodoxy inevitably has a profound influence on society. On the other hand, the Russian Orthodox Church does not officially position itself as an active political power; on the contrary, its position is that churches are spiritual institutions alien to big politics. Nevertheless, it still has a significant impact upon the political elite. In this context, the "Orthodox question" has been steadily growing in post-Soviet Russia, becoming a convenient tool for the Russian government to use to encourage ideological values clearly reflecting their domestic and foreign policy among the Russian population. Syria has now become the most suitable platform from which to make use of the "Orthodox factor". This analysis will not comment on whether or not the re...
Революционные процессы в случае с Ливией оказались фатальными для всей политической системы, озна... more Революционные процессы в случае с Ливией оказались фатальными для всей политической системы, ознаменовав собой почти полный демонтаж государственных институтов, созданных при Джамахирии. Первая волна гражданской войны в Ливии, закончившаяся после убийства Муаммара Каддафи осенью 2011 г., не положила конец гражданскому конфликту в стране. Напротив, во многих отношениях вторая волна конфликта в Ливии (начало активной фазы которой можно датировать 16 мая 2014 г.) оказалась прямым продолжением первой (февраль–октябрь 2011 г.). В настоящей статье анализируются логика и ход второй волны гражданской войны в Ливии, а также исследуется генезис ключевых военно-политических сил в Ливии после 2011 г. Авторы приходят к выводу о том, что в настоящее время в стране сформировалась патовая ситуация. А невозможность военной победы ни одной из сторон ливийского конфликта позволяет надеяться на новое соглашение между всеми его сторонами. Исследование выполнено в рамках программы фундаментальных исследо...
International Politics, 2021
The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe c... more The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's “return” to the Middle East in 2012–2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is trying to underline its importance and relevance to the GCC by putting forward diplomatic and political initiatives. The Kremlin uses its direct or indirect presence in the key regional conflicts such as the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni civil wars as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s nuclear issue. On the other hand, Russia is interested in building up stronger economic cooperation with the GCC, drawing bigger volumes of investments from the Gulf to Russia’s broken economy, as well as coordinating efforts with Saudi A...
Political Narratives in the Middle East and North Africa, 2020
The second decade of the twenty-first century is characterised by Russia’s active involvement in ... more The second decade of the twenty-first century is characterised by Russia’s active involvement in Middle Eastern issues. Unexpectedly, Russia decided to return to the Middle East, and Damascus appeared to be the gate to the region. Russian policy in the Middle East ceased to be ideological following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and no longer followed a messianic narrative. The State has become more pragmatic, neither “pro-Arab” nor “pro-Israel” and, in principle, serves its own interests without adhering to a specific camp. Russia has repeatedly changed its vision and respective narrative of the events taking place in the Arab world since the onset of anti-government protests in the region in 2011. In fact, Russian policy in the Middle East has taken a u-turn during the past 8 years: from near total disinterest to direct military intervention.
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2020
Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhe... more Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhevsk (Russia) in 2003–2004. The Russian government has since taken measures to reduce availability of non-beverage alcohol. Yet, some types of non-beverage alcohol still remain available for consumers. The aim of this study was to assess the availability and sources of non-beverage alcohol in Udmurtia. Methods A survey of adults on the streets of Izhevsk and its environs was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in 2018. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. Results One hundred and sixty-eight people were questioned, of whom, 28% reported consuming non-beverage alcohol. Non-beverage alcohol consumers were more likely to be single, unemployed or retired, younger or older than 19–29 years, have lower educational status and income, have hangovers and drink...
The International Spectator, 2020
ABSTRACT Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of s... more ABSTRACT Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of serious economic interest, the illusory potential of strengthening the military presence there and recognition of Saudi Arabia’s role in the Yemeni conflict. However, a deepening of the split within the Arab coalition in Yemen, primarily between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has not only forced the Russian authorities to seek a balance between Yemeni actors, but also made Russia part of the so-called ‘Yemeni triangle’ alongside the two GCC countries. Russian involvement in the Yemeni crisis is constrained by its economic weakness and prioritisation of Russia-Gulf relations more broadly.
Iran and the Caucasus, 2020
This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist a... more This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist approaches. In the present article one can find two conceptions: the conception of liminality and the conception of re-Islamisation. Liminality is a form of structural crisis that appears as a result of the split within the Islamic spiritual elite and Muslim community itself. The period of liminality is characterised by political and social instability, crisis of social and individual forms of self-identification and sharp cognitive dissonance among many ordinary believers who conduct their own search for fundamentally new forms of Islamic political existence. Re-Islamisation is the post-liminality period that happens if the maximalist block of Islamic elite wins political power. The events of the Arab Spring can be seen as the result of the appearance in the Islamic ideological space of two different ideological platforms (minimalism and maximalism) around which representatives of not on...
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
The Yemen Arab Republic, the current borders of which were carved in 1990, was the embodiment of ... more The Yemen Arab Republic, the current borders of which were carved in 1990, was the embodiment of the aspiration of two formerly existing Yemeni states, the Northern and the Southern, for political unity-with the preservation of regional specificity. Nevertheless, the political turmoil that struck Yemen in the 1990s did not allow the country to introduce federal approaches: North steamrolled South. After the overthrow of the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh provoked by the Arab Spring, the transition to a 'fair' territorial and administrative state model came to the fore. The General Peoples Dialogue which concluded in 2014, envisaged the transformation of Yemen from a unitary state into a federal one. Moreover, the discussion on this issue revealed a fairly large variety of federal projects that were brought up for discussion by various political actors. External intervention in the Yemeni civil war temporarily drowned the discussion, but by the end of the 2010s, it became clear that the local parties to the conflict were ready again for talks about federalism-and, possibly, even for the practical implementation of a federal project. Keywords Yemen • Arab Spring • Federal projects • Civil war • Unification of Yemen • Federation of South Arabia • Houthi movement The Saudi intervention, which began in the spring of 2015, has once again aggravated the North-South divide for which Yemen is infamous. The interference from outside has once again shown that despite being parts of a formally unified state, the northern and southern Yemeni territories still interact weakly with one another, and political and economic ties between them are largely ephemeral. This tragic reminder once again introduces the issue of federalism into the discursive field of both local elites and foreign political scientists. The debate on the federalization of Yemen, which started right after the Arab Spring and died out with the start of the Saudi invasion, has been resurrected again with a renewed vigor. The main reason for it to remain hot and, possibly, politically productive, is the rich background of divides and alliances for which Yemen is well-known. According to one researcher, "clearly, the concept of decentralization and federalism has long been part of Yemen's history and the collective memory of Yemenis" (Al-Akhali 2014: 2). Nonetheless, it should be noted that federalism is "a complex process fraught with difficulty and one that can take
В 2013–2014 гг. мир столкнулся с новой довольно слабой (но при этом и достаточно своеобразной) ре... more В 2013–2014 гг. мир столкнулся с новой довольно слабой (но при этом и достаточно своеобразной) революционной волной. Волна протестов в Каире, Киеве и Бангкоке привели к падению режимов (в первом и третьем случае при прямом участии военных); волны протестов в Тунисе, Каракасе, Стамбуле – Анкаре и Сараево бросили серьёзный вызов соответствующим режимам, но не привели к их свержению. Выявлено общее между этими волнами дестабилизации, произошедшими хоть и синхронно в столь далеких на первый взгляд (и географически, и цивилизационно) странах, как Венесуэла, Украина и Таиланд.
Article history: Received 9 July 2016 Accepted 8 August 2016 Available online 4 October 2016 Ther... more Article history: Received 9 July 2016 Accepted 8 August 2016 Available online 4 October 2016 There are grounds to conclude that in 2011–2012 theWorld System experienced to some extent a phase transition to a qualitatively new state of global protest activity. This phase transition is shown to bear some resemblance to the one which the World System experienced in the early 1960s. The first (after 1919) phase transition of this sort occurred in the early 1960s and was related to the growth of global informational connectivity after WorldWar II, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of television, portable radio receivers, portable electric loud-speakers and other technologies of the Fourth Kondratieff Cycle. The phase transition of the early 2010swas prepared by a newwave of growth of global informational connectivity, as well as the improvement of themeans of protest self-organization due to the spread of various technologies of the Fi...
Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 2021
Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since... more Russian policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has undergone significant changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow’s actions in the region have began to acquire a less ideologically driving and more pragmatic character. However, the Arab Spring and conflict in Ukraine have underscored a more aggressive policy on the part of Russia, the quintessence of which was military intervention in an armed conflict far from its borders, in Syria. Largely Russian intervention to Syria was a tool for Kremlin to resolve internal problems, and a bargaining chip in relations with global and regional actors. At the same time the declining in public interest in foreign policy, as well as the high costs of military presence in the Middle East, in the short term will force the Kremlin to respond to demands from domestic audiences. The resolution of this problem will define the future of Russia in the MENA region. It will either be an ‘honest broker’ in regional conflicts, or have...
Social Evolution & History, 2016
The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16 century’ was transformed int... more The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16 century’ was transformed into the global World System comprised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Central Asian (including Afghanistan and Pakistan), the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. We suggest considering these four zones as a single Afrasian macrozone of instability. We show that this zone correlates rather closely with the zone of traditional prevalence of the parallel cousin marriage, as well as with the zone of very low female labor force participation rate, and the territory of the Umayyad Califate. The article demonstrates that this correlation is not coincidental and also discusses the factors and mechanisms that have produced it.
Bio Systems, 2020
The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the curre... more The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the current situation of sociopolitical (in)stability of the developing and developed societies in question, provide an inertial forecast of the developing situation in a given period, analyse threats to stability threats, and examine possible measures to counteract such threats and their likely influence on the situation. The methodology is based on modeling sociopolitical stability in the country in question with the help of an elaborate logical-mathematical model.
Orthodox Christianity arguably constitutes the foundation of the entire Russian cultural spectrum... more Orthodox Christianity arguably constitutes the foundation of the entire Russian cultural spectrum. The majority of Russians feel close to the eastern Christian tradition and identify with it to varying degrees. Thus, Orthodoxy inevitably has a profound influence on society. On the other hand, the Russian Orthodox Church does not officially position itself as an active political power; on the contrary, its position is that churches are spiritual institutions alien to big politics. Nevertheless, it still has a significant impact upon the political elite. In this context, the "Orthodox question" has been steadily growing in post-Soviet Russia, becoming a convenient tool for the Russian government to use to encourage ideological values clearly reflecting their domestic and foreign policy among the Russian population. Syria has now become the most suitable platform from which to make use of the "Orthodox factor". This analysis will not comment on whether or not the re...
Революционные процессы в случае с Ливией оказались фатальными для всей политической системы, озна... more Революционные процессы в случае с Ливией оказались фатальными для всей политической системы, ознаменовав собой почти полный демонтаж государственных институтов, созданных при Джамахирии. Первая волна гражданской войны в Ливии, закончившаяся после убийства Муаммара Каддафи осенью 2011 г., не положила конец гражданскому конфликту в стране. Напротив, во многих отношениях вторая волна конфликта в Ливии (начало активной фазы которой можно датировать 16 мая 2014 г.) оказалась прямым продолжением первой (февраль–октябрь 2011 г.). В настоящей статье анализируются логика и ход второй волны гражданской войны в Ливии, а также исследуется генезис ключевых военно-политических сил в Ливии после 2011 г. Авторы приходят к выводу о том, что в настоящее время в стране сформировалась патовая ситуация. А невозможность военной победы ни одной из сторон ливийского конфликта позволяет надеяться на новое соглашение между всеми его сторонами. Исследование выполнено в рамках программы фундаментальных исследо...
International Politics, 2021
The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe c... more The interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's “return” to the Middle East in 2012–2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is trying to underline its importance and relevance to the GCC by putting forward diplomatic and political initiatives. The Kremlin uses its direct or indirect presence in the key regional conflicts such as the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni civil wars as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s nuclear issue. On the other hand, Russia is interested in building up stronger economic cooperation with the GCC, drawing bigger volumes of investments from the Gulf to Russia’s broken economy, as well as coordinating efforts with Saudi A...
Political Narratives in the Middle East and North Africa, 2020
The second decade of the twenty-first century is characterised by Russia’s active involvement in ... more The second decade of the twenty-first century is characterised by Russia’s active involvement in Middle Eastern issues. Unexpectedly, Russia decided to return to the Middle East, and Damascus appeared to be the gate to the region. Russian policy in the Middle East ceased to be ideological following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and no longer followed a messianic narrative. The State has become more pragmatic, neither “pro-Arab” nor “pro-Israel” and, in principle, serves its own interests without adhering to a specific camp. Russia has repeatedly changed its vision and respective narrative of the events taking place in the Arab world since the onset of anti-government protests in the region in 2011. In fact, Russian policy in the Middle East has taken a u-turn during the past 8 years: from near total disinterest to direct military intervention.
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region, 2021
Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2020
Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhe... more Aims Non-beverage alcohol was a major cause of preventable mortality of working-age males in Izhevsk (Russia) in 2003–2004. The Russian government has since taken measures to reduce availability of non-beverage alcohol. Yet, some types of non-beverage alcohol still remain available for consumers. The aim of this study was to assess the availability and sources of non-beverage alcohol in Udmurtia. Methods A survey of adults on the streets of Izhevsk and its environs was performed on workdays to assess non-beverage drinking patterns in 2018. The questionnaire included questions about socio-demographic status and alcohol use, including non-beverage alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. Results One hundred and sixty-eight people were questioned, of whom, 28% reported consuming non-beverage alcohol. Non-beverage alcohol consumers were more likely to be single, unemployed or retired, younger or older than 19–29 years, have lower educational status and income, have hangovers and drink...
The International Spectator, 2020
ABSTRACT Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of s... more ABSTRACT Yemen occupies a peripheral place in Russian foreign policy for three reasons: lack of serious economic interest, the illusory potential of strengthening the military presence there and recognition of Saudi Arabia’s role in the Yemeni conflict. However, a deepening of the split within the Arab coalition in Yemen, primarily between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has not only forced the Russian authorities to seek a balance between Yemeni actors, but also made Russia part of the so-called ‘Yemeni triangle’ alongside the two GCC countries. Russian involvement in the Yemeni crisis is constrained by its economic weakness and prioritisation of Russia-Gulf relations more broadly.
Iran and the Caucasus, 2020
This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist a... more This article presents the evolution of the concepts of jihād from the minimalist and maximalist approaches. In the present article one can find two conceptions: the conception of liminality and the conception of re-Islamisation. Liminality is a form of structural crisis that appears as a result of the split within the Islamic spiritual elite and Muslim community itself. The period of liminality is characterised by political and social instability, crisis of social and individual forms of self-identification and sharp cognitive dissonance among many ordinary believers who conduct their own search for fundamentally new forms of Islamic political existence. Re-Islamisation is the post-liminality period that happens if the maximalist block of Islamic elite wins political power. The events of the Arab Spring can be seen as the result of the appearance in the Islamic ideological space of two different ideological platforms (minimalism and maximalism) around which representatives of not on...