Leslie Guelcher - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Leslie Guelcher

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourcing the future

Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a lar... more Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a large group of people often outperform the estimations of individual experts. This phenomenon is generally described as the Wisdom of Crowds. This approach has shown promise with respect to the task of accurately forecasting future events. Previous research has demonstrated the value of utilizing metaforecasts (forecasts about what others in the group will predict) when aggregating group predictions. In this paper, we describe an extension to meta-forecasting and demonstrate the value of modeling the familiarity among a model to forecast aggregation. A pair of studies demonstrates the value of taking this model into account, and the described technique produces aggregate forecasts for future events that are significantly better than the standard Wisdom of Crowds approach as well as previous meta-forecasting techniques.

Research paper thumbnail of COMPARING STUDENT PERCEPTIONS OF ACCOUNTABILITY, PREFERENCE FOR TEAM LEARNING, AND SATISFACTION IN TEAM-BASED LEARNING VERSUS PROBLEM-BASED LEARNING IN A U.S. INTELLIGENCE STUDIES PROGRAM

Journal of Security, Intelligence, and Resilience Education, 2023

Collaboration is a vital skill for intelligence practice, and optimizing team learning environmen... more Collaboration is a vital skill for intelligence practice, and optimizing team learning environments is one way to ensure students succeed as intelligence professionals. This research sought to understand what factors most effectively facilitate effective collaboration in team-based learning and problem-based pedagogies. Using the Team-Based Learning Student Assessment Instrument, the researchers asked students from two cohorts: problem-solving and team-based, to identify their preferences and recall from team-based and problem-based lessons. Both cohorts preferred team-based pedagogies and reported better recall from team-based pedagogies. The findings suggest that student engagement and collaboration skills can be cultivated in academic settings, especially team-based collaborative approaches.

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourcing the future

Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2014

Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a lar... more Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a large group of people often outperform the estimations of individual experts. This phenomenon is generally described as the Wisdom of Crowds. This approach has shown promise with respect to the task of accurately forecasting future events. Previous research has demonstrated the value of utilizing metaforecasts (forecasts about what others in the group will predict) when aggregating group predictions. In this paper, we describe an extension to meta-forecasting and demonstrate the value of modeling the familiarity among a model to forecast aggregation. A pair of studies demonstrates the value of taking this model into account, and the described technique produces aggregate forecasts for future events that are significantly better than the standard Wisdom of Crowds approach as well as previous meta-forecasting techniques.

Thesis Chapters by Leslie Guelcher

Research paper thumbnail of VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: PUBLICIZING TOP SECRET/SPECIAL COMPARTMENTALIZED INFORMATION CLEARANCES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SITES AND ITS IMPACT ON ORGANIZATIONAL CYBER SECURITY

Master's Thesis, 2015

Technologies accessed via the Internet, such as Social Media and online networking, enable employ... more Technologies accessed via the Internet, such as Social Media and online networking, enable employees to build relationships and conduct business without in-person interactions. One major hub for building professional networks is LinkedIn, which is also used to recruit personnel. Studies indicate that insider theft is often conducted within one month of an employee leaving a company. The reasons for the theft is the desire to obtain intellectual property by either outsiders or insiders. Identifying an organization’s vulnerabilities to IP theft is a key concern of security personnel.

One such vulnerability is the personal identifying information listed on Social Media sites, such as LinkedIn. While much research has been conducted surrounding this vulnerability, none have looked at the vulnerability surrounding employees publicizing their US government security clearance classification levels. The rules governing publicizing security clearance are vague. With the increased usage of Social Media sites by employees working for organizations with government contracts, little is known about the impact of listing security clearances on public Social Media sites on organizational security.

This report addresses the intersection of cyber theft, psychological indicators for insider theft, Social Media usage, and security clearance publicizing. While less than 1% of the employees of US governmental-contractors listed their Top Secret/Special Compartmentalized Information clearance on LinkedIn, over 95% of those in management positions who also listed TS/SCI were identified by full name, position and company in under 5 minutes. The ability to easily identify the PII of management personnel who hold TS/SCI clearances creates IP-theft security vulnerabilities for organizations, as seen in the intersection of the Venn diagram below.

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourcing the future

Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a lar... more Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a large group of people often outperform the estimations of individual experts. This phenomenon is generally described as the Wisdom of Crowds. This approach has shown promise with respect to the task of accurately forecasting future events. Previous research has demonstrated the value of utilizing metaforecasts (forecasts about what others in the group will predict) when aggregating group predictions. In this paper, we describe an extension to meta-forecasting and demonstrate the value of modeling the familiarity among a model to forecast aggregation. A pair of studies demonstrates the value of taking this model into account, and the described technique produces aggregate forecasts for future events that are significantly better than the standard Wisdom of Crowds approach as well as previous meta-forecasting techniques.

Research paper thumbnail of COMPARING STUDENT PERCEPTIONS OF ACCOUNTABILITY, PREFERENCE FOR TEAM LEARNING, AND SATISFACTION IN TEAM-BASED LEARNING VERSUS PROBLEM-BASED LEARNING IN A U.S. INTELLIGENCE STUDIES PROGRAM

Journal of Security, Intelligence, and Resilience Education, 2023

Collaboration is a vital skill for intelligence practice, and optimizing team learning environmen... more Collaboration is a vital skill for intelligence practice, and optimizing team learning environments is one way to ensure students succeed as intelligence professionals. This research sought to understand what factors most effectively facilitate effective collaboration in team-based learning and problem-based pedagogies. Using the Team-Based Learning Student Assessment Instrument, the researchers asked students from two cohorts: problem-solving and team-based, to identify their preferences and recall from team-based and problem-based lessons. Both cohorts preferred team-based pedagogies and reported better recall from team-based pedagogies. The findings suggest that student engagement and collaboration skills can be cultivated in academic settings, especially team-based collaborative approaches.

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourcing the future

Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, 2014

Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a lar... more Researchers have long known that aggregate estimations built from the collected opinions of a large group of people often outperform the estimations of individual experts. This phenomenon is generally described as the Wisdom of Crowds. This approach has shown promise with respect to the task of accurately forecasting future events. Previous research has demonstrated the value of utilizing metaforecasts (forecasts about what others in the group will predict) when aggregating group predictions. In this paper, we describe an extension to meta-forecasting and demonstrate the value of modeling the familiarity among a model to forecast aggregation. A pair of studies demonstrates the value of taking this model into account, and the described technique produces aggregate forecasts for future events that are significantly better than the standard Wisdom of Crowds approach as well as previous meta-forecasting techniques.

Research paper thumbnail of VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: PUBLICIZING TOP SECRET/SPECIAL COMPARTMENTALIZED INFORMATION CLEARANCES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SITES AND ITS IMPACT ON ORGANIZATIONAL CYBER SECURITY

Master's Thesis, 2015

Technologies accessed via the Internet, such as Social Media and online networking, enable employ... more Technologies accessed via the Internet, such as Social Media and online networking, enable employees to build relationships and conduct business without in-person interactions. One major hub for building professional networks is LinkedIn, which is also used to recruit personnel. Studies indicate that insider theft is often conducted within one month of an employee leaving a company. The reasons for the theft is the desire to obtain intellectual property by either outsiders or insiders. Identifying an organization’s vulnerabilities to IP theft is a key concern of security personnel.

One such vulnerability is the personal identifying information listed on Social Media sites, such as LinkedIn. While much research has been conducted surrounding this vulnerability, none have looked at the vulnerability surrounding employees publicizing their US government security clearance classification levels. The rules governing publicizing security clearance are vague. With the increased usage of Social Media sites by employees working for organizations with government contracts, little is known about the impact of listing security clearances on public Social Media sites on organizational security.

This report addresses the intersection of cyber theft, psychological indicators for insider theft, Social Media usage, and security clearance publicizing. While less than 1% of the employees of US governmental-contractors listed their Top Secret/Special Compartmentalized Information clearance on LinkedIn, over 95% of those in management positions who also listed TS/SCI were identified by full name, position and company in under 5 minutes. The ability to easily identify the PII of management personnel who hold TS/SCI clearances creates IP-theft security vulnerabilities for organizations, as seen in the intersection of the Venn diagram below.