Leszek Kasek - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Leszek Kasek

Poland is not among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases globally, but its economy is among t... more Poland is not among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases globally, but its economy is among the least emissions-efficient in the European Union (EU). Poland's global share in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is just 1percent and its per capita emissions are similar to the EU overall. Its lower income level, the Polish economy comes out as among the least carbon-efficient. Poland's transition to a market economy since 1989 had a co-benefit of sharply reduced CO2 emissions; however, the link between growth and emissions has re-emerged in recent years. A critical difference in the make-up of Poland's emissions is the dominance of the power sector and its extraordinary dependence on coal. Over 90 percent of electricity in Poland is generated from coal and lignite, the highest share in the EU. This makes Poland an outlier, both globally and in Europe.

EcoMod2016, 2016

Oil prices on global markets have plunged from US$115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to US$48 at ... more Oil prices on global markets have plunged from US$115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to US$48 at end-January 2015, and around US$30 in January 2016. Oil prices that remain low over the long-term would give a positive boost to the global economy, but the effects will vary across countries. While net oil (fossil fuel) importers are expected to win (Europe, Japan, China, India), net oil exporters (OPEC countries, EFTA, Russia, Canada) are set to lose. However, in the EU, with carbon emission constraints in place, the possible benefits for oil users will be restricted because of climate regulations. This paper quantifies the economic effects of lower fossil fuel prices in the 2020 time horizon, modeled as a supply shock, and emphasizes their interaction with EU climate policy. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA) in Warsaw. The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of US$118 in 2015 and US$128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that, first, oil exporters will suffer substantial double-digit welfare losses through 2020 due to significant deterioration in their terms of trade. Second, the EU, as a large oil importer, will benefit significantly from lower oil prices, with the New Member States being relatively better off, as a consequence of their relatively high energy intensity. Third, if the assumed permanent oil price shock occurs at half the level of the headline 60 percent scenario (proxying for US dollar appreciation or reflecting a rebound in oil prices from their early 2015 levels through 2020), welfare effects will be smaller and less than proportional for most countries. Finally, in the EU, the existing emissions cap constrain the use of cheaper fossil fuels and limits the welfare increase by about 0.5 percentage points.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2014

Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous c... more Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, individual countries are thinking through the implications of climate action for their economies and people. The rest of the report is organized along the following lines. The next section provides background on Poland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Then section B sets out Poland's existing carbon abatement targets and key policy challenges related to GHG mitigation. The next section summarizes the innovative methodological approach used by the report. Section D discusses the methods and implications of constructing business-as-usual or reference scenarios. Section E provides the major findings from the first model, the engineering approach, on the costs of measures aimed at GHG mitigation for Poland. Section F explains how these findings are expanded and revised by incorporation into the first macroeconomic model. Section G provides an analysis of the economic ...

We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and provide a new rigorous one. This is then te... more We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and provide a new rigorous one. This is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis for unilateral carbon dioxide abatement programs in the EU. Our model of the global economy is disaggregated into three regions. The analysis includes a decomposition of change in carbon emission. While some anti-leakage measures reduce carbon leakage significantly, some of them are less effective. We identified a list of parameters which affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of carbon leakage rate. Manipulating with elasticities of substitution in production function suggests that in reaction to the unilateral action of the EU, the other regions may both increase or decrease their carbon emissions. Even though we are positive about computable general equilibrium models’ application in this policy area, their policy simulations cannot be directly treated as policy recommendations without a careful validation of their assumptions.

World Bank Working Papers, 2008

World Bank Working Papers, 2007

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Key Messages 1  Poland can cut its greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2030 by applyin... more Key Messages 1  Poland can cut its greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2030 by applying existing technologies, at an average cost of 10 to 15 euros per ton of carbon dioxide abated.  Costs to the economy will peak in 2020. However, by 2030, the shift towards low emissions will augment growth. Overall, this abatement will lower GDP by an average 1% through 2030 from where it otherwise would have been.  The economic cost in output and employment of Poland's required abatement by 2020 under EU rules is higher than for the average EU country. Also, the restrictions on emissions trading between sectors aggravate that cost.  The energy sector currently generates nearly half of Poland's emissions. However, the transport sector -with precipitous growth and the need for behavioral change in addition to the adoption of new technologies -may end up posing the tougher policy challenge.  The World Bank's work on Poland advances the approach of low carbon studies. The m...

Poland is not among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases globally, but its economy is among t... more Poland is not among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases globally, but its economy is among the least emissions-efficient in the European Union (EU). Poland's global share in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is just 1percent and its per capita emissions are similar to the EU overall. Its lower income level, the Polish economy comes out as among the least carbon-efficient. Poland's transition to a market economy since 1989 had a co-benefit of sharply reduced CO2 emissions; however, the link between growth and emissions has re-emerged in recent years. A critical difference in the make-up of Poland's emissions is the dominance of the power sector and its extraordinary dependence on coal. Over 90 percent of electricity in Poland is generated from coal and lignite, the highest share in the EU. This makes Poland an outlier, both globally and in Europe.

EcoMod2016, 2016

Oil prices on global markets have plunged from US$115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to US$48 at ... more Oil prices on global markets have plunged from US$115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to US$48 at end-January 2015, and around US$30 in January 2016. Oil prices that remain low over the long-term would give a positive boost to the global economy, but the effects will vary across countries. While net oil (fossil fuel) importers are expected to win (Europe, Japan, China, India), net oil exporters (OPEC countries, EFTA, Russia, Canada) are set to lose. However, in the EU, with carbon emission constraints in place, the possible benefits for oil users will be restricted because of climate regulations. This paper quantifies the economic effects of lower fossil fuel prices in the 2020 time horizon, modeled as a supply shock, and emphasizes their interaction with EU climate policy. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA) in Warsaw. The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of US$118 in 2015 and US$128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that, first, oil exporters will suffer substantial double-digit welfare losses through 2020 due to significant deterioration in their terms of trade. Second, the EU, as a large oil importer, will benefit significantly from lower oil prices, with the New Member States being relatively better off, as a consequence of their relatively high energy intensity. Third, if the assumed permanent oil price shock occurs at half the level of the headline 60 percent scenario (proxying for US dollar appreciation or reflecting a rebound in oil prices from their early 2015 levels through 2020), welfare effects will be smaller and less than proportional for most countries. Finally, in the EU, the existing emissions cap constrain the use of cheaper fossil fuels and limits the welfare increase by about 0.5 percentage points.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2014

Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous c... more Against the backdrop of agreement that global coordinated action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change, individual countries are thinking through the implications of climate action for their economies and people. The rest of the report is organized along the following lines. The next section provides background on Poland's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Then section B sets out Poland's existing carbon abatement targets and key policy challenges related to GHG mitigation. The next section summarizes the innovative methodological approach used by the report. Section D discusses the methods and implications of constructing business-as-usual or reference scenarios. Section E provides the major findings from the first model, the engineering approach, on the costs of measures aimed at GHG mitigation for Poland. Section F explains how these findings are expanded and revised by incorporation into the first macroeconomic model. Section G provides an analysis of the economic ...

We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and provide a new rigorous one. This is then te... more We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and provide a new rigorous one. This is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis for unilateral carbon dioxide abatement programs in the EU. Our model of the global economy is disaggregated into three regions. The analysis includes a decomposition of change in carbon emission. While some anti-leakage measures reduce carbon leakage significantly, some of them are less effective. We identified a list of parameters which affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of carbon leakage rate. Manipulating with elasticities of substitution in production function suggests that in reaction to the unilateral action of the EU, the other regions may both increase or decrease their carbon emissions. Even though we are positive about computable general equilibrium models’ application in this policy area, their policy simulations cannot be directly treated as policy recommendations without a careful validation of their assumptions.

World Bank Working Papers, 2008

World Bank Working Papers, 2007

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Key Messages 1  Poland can cut its greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2030 by applyin... more Key Messages 1  Poland can cut its greenhouse gas emissions by almost a third by 2030 by applying existing technologies, at an average cost of 10 to 15 euros per ton of carbon dioxide abated.  Costs to the economy will peak in 2020. However, by 2030, the shift towards low emissions will augment growth. Overall, this abatement will lower GDP by an average 1% through 2030 from where it otherwise would have been.  The economic cost in output and employment of Poland's required abatement by 2020 under EU rules is higher than for the average EU country. Also, the restrictions on emissions trading between sectors aggravate that cost.  The energy sector currently generates nearly half of Poland's emissions. However, the transport sector -with precipitous growth and the need for behavioral change in addition to the adoption of new technologies -may end up posing the tougher policy challenge.  The World Bank's work on Poland advances the approach of low carbon studies. The m...