Igor Linkov - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Igor Linkov

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

The concepts of business continuity management, operational resilience, and organizational resili... more The concepts of business continuity management, operational resilience, and organizational resilience each refer to actions that businesses and organizations can take in anticipating and responding to disruptions. However, the existing definitions and usages are difficult to differentiate due to overlapping objectives, implementation processes, and outcomes. This article examines definitions and approaches for these three concepts and suggest a framework to operationalize methods and tools relevant to each. These definitions emphasize three dyads: risk versus resilience; organizational processes versus assets; and normal operating conditions versus crisis conditions. Using these dyads to differentiate the concepts of business continuity management, operational resilience, and organizational resilience can support planners in clarifying objectives and identifying which approach will be most beneficial as businesses or organizations plan for and encounter disruptions. This article eva...

ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering

Equitable allocation and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine have proven to be a major policy ch... more Equitable allocation and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine have proven to be a major policy challenge exacerbated by incomplete pandemic risk data. To rectify this shortcoming, a three-step data visualization methodology was developed to assess COVID-19 vaccination equity in the United States using state health department, U.S. Census, and CDC data. Part one establishes an equitable pathway deviation index to identify populations with limited vaccination. Part two measures perceived access and public intentions to vaccinate over time. Part three synthesizes these data with the social vulnerability index to identify areas and communities at particular risk. Results demonstrate significant equity differences at a census-tract level, and across demographic and socioeconomic population characteristics. Results were used by various federal agencies to improve coordinated pandemic risk response and implement a commitment to equity as defined by the Executive Order regarding COVID-19 va...

Nature Communications

Dynamic processes on networks, be it information transfer in the Internet, contagious spreading i... more Dynamic processes on networks, be it information transfer in the Internet, contagious spreading in a social network, or neural signaling, take place along shortest or nearly shortest paths. Computing shortest paths is a straightforward task when the network of interest is fully known, and there are a plethora of computational algorithms for this purpose. Unfortunately, our maps of most large networks are substantially incomplete due to either the highly dynamic nature of networks, or high cost of network measurements, or both, rendering traditional path finding methods inefficient. We find that shortest paths in large real networks, such as the network of protein-protein interactions and the Internet at the autonomous system level, are not random but are organized according to latent-geometric rules. If nodes of these networks are mapped to points in latent hyperbolic spaces, shortest paths in them align along geodesic curves connecting endpoint nodes. We find that this alignment is...

An edited collection of authored pieces comparing, contrasting, and integrating risk and resilien... more An edited collection of authored pieces comparing, contrasting, and integrating risk and resilience with an emphasis on ways to measure resilience

The American Journal of Surgical Pathology, 1988

Polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA) is a minor salivary gland carcinoma usually arising ... more Polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA) is a minor salivary gland carcinoma usually arising intraorally, primarily in the palate. It is characterized by cytologic uniformity, histologic blandness, and a variable, infiltrating growth pattern. To date, 117 tumors have been reported but the immunohistochemical features of this neoplasm have not been adequately described. This report describes the immunohistochemical distribution of epithelial membrane antigen (EMA), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), high-molecular-weight keratin, muscle-specific actin (MSA), and S-100 protein in four palatal polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinomas arising in two men and two women. Three patients were treated with a combination of radiation and surgery, and one was treated with just surgery; none of the tumors recurred or metastasized. More than 90% of tumor cells in all four tumors stained with S-100 and EMA, while 75 to 95% stained with keratin. MSA staining intensity was variable; it ranged from less than 10% to 67% of tumor cells staining positively. CEA staining also was markedly variable; it ranged from very focal luminal positivity to 75% of tumor cells staining positive. The diffuse staining pattern of EMA and S-100 and the difference in staining patterns of EMA and CEA in PLGA is distinct from that found in adenoid cystic carcinoma. In the latter neoplasm, EMA and CEA staining patterns are similar and they are localized to ductal lumina; S-100 stains much less diffusely. These differences are useful in the differential diagnosis between these two tumors.

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2016

Technology innovation is an increasingly globalized exercise with dramatic consequences for scien... more Technology innovation is an increasingly globalized exercise with dramatic consequences for scientific and diplomatic goals alike, and requires enhanced participation and integration of scientists and science-minded diplomats within diplomatic missions to advance shared policy goals. This more general problem is addressed in the present article by focusing on recent collaborations between U.S. and German scientists, including several of the coauthors.

Environment Systems and Decisions

Environmental Science: Nano, 2018

The growing number of nano-enabled consumer products can now be effectively prioritized according... more The growing number of nano-enabled consumer products can now be effectively prioritized according to their potential human health risk.

PsycEXTRA Dataset

This project describes a computer-mediated cognitive leadership training program for helping lead... more This project describes a computer-mediated cognitive leadership training program for helping leaders of a Joint Task Force overcome cultural barriers between services. The program focuses on the brigade level (and higher) echelons of service warfighting units, and it is intended as a supplement to intermediate-level formal service schools. The training environment features a user-friendly interface based on the Decisive Action platform, which provides a controlled environment for leadership skill training. The proposed scenario places the participant in a crisis situation as the commanding officer of a Joint Force operation. A crisis situation requires information from a wide range of information sources and categories, and the trainee, as the commander, must assess the situation with the information provided. The trainees are assessed on how well they adapt to unforeseen circumstances that are introduced during the course of the experiment.

Journal of Public Health, 2016

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2017

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) definition of resilience is used here to organize common c... more The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) definition of resilience is used here to organize common concepts and synthesize a set of key features of resilience that can be used across diverse application domains. The features in common include critical functions (services), thresholds, cross-scale (both space and time) interactions, and memory and adaptive management. We propose a framework for linking these features to the planning, absorbing, recovering, and adapting phases identified in the NAS definition. The proposed delineation of resilience can be important in understanding and communicating resilience concepts.

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impactśed all forms of global international engagement, inclu... more The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has impactśed all forms of global international engagement, inclusive of long-standing and recently formed research teams. Most were formed to be efficient within budget, time, and personnel limits, without building an ability to recover from crises, i.e. inherent resilience. Diversity and Inclusiveness, a requirement for resilient ecological systems, has only been discussed in a normative sense for teams of humans, including research teams. Studying different diversity configurations of international research teams will allow resilience-based tools and metrics to inform improved team design, implementation, and recovery to adverse events.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Computer, 2021

The term "cyber resilience by design" is growing in popularity. But what is the other resilience,... more The term "cyber resilience by design" is growing in popularity. But what is the other resilience, not by design? In this article we explore differences and mutual reliance of resilience by design and resilience by intervention.

Nature Communications, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the fragility of food security and associated supply chains... more The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the fragility of food security and associated supply chains for remote and Indigenous communities. Here we highlight challenges faced by the Tribal Population of Noepe (Martha's Vineyard) and argue for the inclusion of Resilience-by-Design and Resilience-by-Intervention in supply chain management. The coronavirus pandemic has underscored the cascading consequences of unexpected disruptions to food supply chains as well as the complexity of the public and private interactions governing the global food system. The impacts of those disruptions, compounded by systemic threats and vulnerabilities, such as climate change, socioeconomic disparities, and lean supply chain networks, are wreaking havoc on equitable and predictable nutritious food distribution and access 1. Marginalized and remote communities with fewer geographic and financial connections and resources are more likely to struggle to overcome effects of fragile systems and maintain food security. Supply chain disruptions, amplified by the coronavirus pandemic, have brought into sharp focus the food insecurity for these communities. In this comment, we highlight food supply chain issues facing the Tribal community on Martha's Vineyard (MV). There is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the repercussions of efficiency-driven supply chain operations for remote Tribal populations in the United States, which examines the importance of approaching food supply chain design and implementation from a resilience-seeking perspective to ensure equitable access to food. We contend that food security can be bolstered with a more nuanced supply chain configuration that targets resilience to cope with disruptions but does not compromise efficient movement of goods under normal operations 2,3. Specifically, we suggest that Resilience-by-Design (RbD) and Resilience-by-Intervention (RbI) can be pursued as concurrent strategies to enhance the resilience of communities and their supply chains-to absorb stress and shocks to minimize disruptions, recover functionality if it is lost, and enhance adaptation for the future 4. Food security on Martha's Vineyard Approximately 4.5 miles off the mainland coast of Massachusetts on the small island of Noepe (Martha's Vineyard), the 1000 on-island members of the Wampanoag Tribe of Gay Head Aquinnah rely on a single ferry service to deliver most bulk food items to their stores. The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted ferry reliability and subsequent food availability at grocery

Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 2021

Many efforts to predict the impact of COVID-19 on hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) util... more Many efforts to predict the impact of COVID-19 on hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) utilization, and mortality rely on age and comorbidities. These predictions are foundational to learning, policymaking, and planning for the pandemic, and therefore understanding the relationship between age, comorbidities, and health outcomes is critical to assessing and managing public health risks. From a US government database of 1.4 million patient records collected in May 2020, we extracted the relationships between age and number of comorbidities at the individual level to predict the likelihood of hospitalization, admission to intensive care, and death. We then applied the relationships to each US state and a selection of different countries in order to see whether they predicted observed outcome rates. We found that age and comorbidity data within these geographical regions do not explain much of the international or within-country variation in hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. Identifying alternative explanations for the limited predictive power of comorbidities and age at the population level should be considered for future research.

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology, 2022

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on economy. Decisions regarding the re... more BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on economy. Decisions regarding the reopening of businesses should account for infection risks. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes a novel model for COVID-19 infection risks and policy evaluations. METHODS: The model combines the best principles of the agent-based, microexposure, and probabilistic modeling approaches. It takes into account specifics of a workplace, mask efficiency, and daily routines of employees, but does not require specific interagent rules for simulations. Likewise, it does not require knowledge of microscopic disease related parameters. Instead, the risk of infection is aggregated into the probability of infection, which depends on the duration and distance of every contact. The probability of infection at the end of a workday is found using rigorous probabilistic rules. Unlike previous models, this approach requires only a few reference data points for calibration, which are more easily collected via empirical studies. RESULTS: The application of the model is demonstrated for a typical office environment and for a real-world case. CONCLUSION: The proposed model allows for effective risk assessment and policy evaluation when there are large uncertainties about the disease, making it particularly suitable for COVID-19 risk assessments.