Jie Lou - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Jie Lou
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
Traditional methods of quantifying epidemic spread are based on surveillance data. The most widel... more Traditional methods of quantifying epidemic spread are based on surveillance data. The most widely used surveillance data are normally incidence data from case reports and hospital records, which are normally susceptible to human error, and sometimes, they even can be seriously error-prone and incomplete when collected during a destructive epidemic. In this manuscript, we introduce a new method to study the spread of infectious disease. We gave an example of how to use this method to predict the virus spreading using the HIV gene sequences data of China. First, we applied Bayesian inference to gene sequences of two main subtypes of the HIV virus to infer the effective reproduction number (GRe(t)) to trace the history of HIV transmission. Second, a dynamic model was established to forecast the spread of HIV medication resistance in the future and also obtain its effective reproduction number (MRe(t)). Through fitting the two effective reproduction numbers obtained from the two separa...
PLOS ONE, 2021
Background China’s National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program (NFATP) has substantially reduc... more Background China’s National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program (NFATP) has substantially reduced morbidity and HIV/AIDS incidence since 2003. However, HIV resistance to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) has been a major challenge for the current treatment of HIV/AIDS in China. Methods In the current study, we established a nested dynamic model to predict the multi-drug resistance dynamics of HIV among the heterosexual population and evaluated the impact of intervention measures on the transmission of drug resistance. We obtained an effective reproductive number R e d from each sub-model held at different stages of the dynamic model. Meanwhile, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to infer the weighted average effective reproductive number R e g from four HIV subtypes that sampled from 912 HIV-positive patients in China. It is an original and innovative method by fitting R e d to R e g by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate unknown parameters in R e d. Results By analyzing t...
Journal of Applied Analysis and Computation, 2016
A coupled within(immunological) and between-host (epidemiological) dynamic model was developed wh... more A coupled within(immunological) and between-host (epidemiological) dynamic model was developed which is about the spreading of drugsensitive HIV strain and drug-resistant HIV strain in men who have sex with men (MSM) population. The within-host model was nested within the betweenhost model by linking the dynamics of the within-host model to the additional host mortality and transmission rate of the infection. The existences of equilibria and their stabilities were found, as well as the thresholds RS and RR for the two different strains of the nested model. Some simulations about the spreading of the two HIV strains in Beijing MSM population were given. Our results show that the drug-resistant strain will increase quite fast in this population and both strains can coexist, which will make a big pressure for China’s “Four-Free-One-Care Policy”.
Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is able to persist in cellular and/or anatomical viral reservo... more Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is able to persist in cellular and/or anatomical viral reservoirs, despite the effective inhibition of virus replication by the antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here we develop a mathematical model to gain some insights of HIV persistence relevant to the lymphocyte recirculation network of immune system and the central nervous system (CNS). Our simulations and analyses illustrate the role of the CNS as a virus reservoir to prevent antiretroviral drugs from penetrating the blood-brain (or blood-testis) barrier, and we examine the long-term impact of this reservoir on the transmissibility of an infected individual. We observe numerically that level of HIV in peripheral blood may not accurately reflect the true mechanisms occurring within other organs.
International Journal of STD & AIDS, 2019
Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex with men (MSM) may protect agai... more Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex with men (MSM) may protect against HIV acquisition. We conducted a series of analyses to assess if expanded VMMC might reduce HIV incidence among MSM effectively and economically. We used a deterministic compartmental model to project new HIV cases (2016–2026) under annual VMMC coverage rates (λ) ranging from 0.0001 to 0.15. The ‘number needed to avert’ (NNA) is defined as the cumulative number of VMMCs conducted up to that year divided by the cumulative number of HIV cases averted in that specific year. Compared with the baseline circumcision coverage rate, we projected that new HIV cases would be reduced with increasing coverage. By 2026 (last year simulated), the model generated the lowest ratio (11.10) when the annual circumcision rate was the most optimistic (λ = 0.15). The breakeven point was observed at the year of 2019 with the annual VMMC coverage rate of 0.001. The total cost saved by averting HIV cases woul...
Objective: To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under differen... more Objective: To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under different combinations of HIV testing and linkage to care (TLC) interventions including antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Beijing, China. Design: Mathematical modeling. Methods: Using a mathematical model to fit prevalence estimates from 2000-2010, we projected trends in HIV prevalence and incidence during 2011-2020 under five scenarios: (S1) current intervention levels by averaging 2000-2010 coverage; (S2) increased ART coverage with current TLC; (S3) increased TLC/ART coverage; (S4) increased condom use; and (S5) increased TLC/ART plus increased condom use. Results: The basic reproduction number based upon the current level of interventions is significantly higher than 1 (R 0~2 :09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.83-2.35), suggesting that the HIV epidemic will continue to increase to 2020. Compared to the 2010 prevalence of 7.8%, the projected HIV prevalence in 2020 for the five prevention scenarios will be: (S1) Current coverage: 21.4% (95% CI, 9.9-31.7%); (S2) Increased ART: 19.9% (95% CI, 9.9-28.4%); (S3) Increased TLC/ART: 14.5% (95% CI, 7.0-23.8%); (S4) Increased condom use: 13.0% (95% CI, 9.8-28.4%); and (S5) Increased TLC/ART and condom use: 8.7% (95% CI, 5.4-11.5%). HIV epidemic will continue to rise (R 0 w1) for S1-S4 even with hyperbolic coverage in the sensitivity analysis, and is expected to decline (R 0~0 :93) for S5. Conclusion: Our transmission model suggests that Beijing MSM will have a rapidly rising HIV epidemic. Even enhanced levels of TLC/ART will not interrupt epidemic expansion, despite optimistic assumptions for coverage. Promoting condom use is a crucial component of combination interventions.
Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021
Asian Journal of Chemistry, 2015
IEEE International Symposium on Electromagnetic Compatibility, 2007
In this paper, a simulation model is established to investigate on the conducted mechanism in sub... more In this paper, a simulation model is established to investigate on the conducted mechanism in substations installed with SVC (Static Var Compensator) devices with a view to characterizing the main causes of the conducted interference. The high-frequency macro model for thyristors is established with a nonlinear time-varying resistor to simulate the switching characteristics of the thyristors. Based on the above
International journal of nanomedicine, 2014
This study aimed to optimize and evaluate a thermoresponsive ophthalmic in situ gel containing cu... more This study aimed to optimize and evaluate a thermoresponsive ophthalmic in situ gel containing curcumin-loaded albumin nanoparticles (Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel). Albumin nanoparticles were prepared via a desolvation method, and the gels were prepared via a cold method. The central composite design and response surface method was used to evaluate the effects of varying Pluronic F127 and Pluronic F68 concentrations on the sol-gel transition temperature, which is an indicator of optimum formulations. The optimized formulation was a free-flowing liquid below 30.9°C that transformed into a semi-solid gel above 34.2°C after dilution with simulated tear fluid. Results of the in vitro release and erosion behavior study indicated that Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel achieved superior sustained-release effects and that incorporation of albumin nanoparticles exerted minimal effects on the gel structure. In addition, in vivo ophthalmic experiments employing Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel were subsequently performed in rabbits. In vivo...
Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
Traditional methods of quantifying epidemic spread are based on surveillance data. The most widel... more Traditional methods of quantifying epidemic spread are based on surveillance data. The most widely used surveillance data are normally incidence data from case reports and hospital records, which are normally susceptible to human error, and sometimes, they even can be seriously error-prone and incomplete when collected during a destructive epidemic. In this manuscript, we introduce a new method to study the spread of infectious disease. We gave an example of how to use this method to predict the virus spreading using the HIV gene sequences data of China. First, we applied Bayesian inference to gene sequences of two main subtypes of the HIV virus to infer the effective reproduction number (GRe(t)) to trace the history of HIV transmission. Second, a dynamic model was established to forecast the spread of HIV medication resistance in the future and also obtain its effective reproduction number (MRe(t)). Through fitting the two effective reproduction numbers obtained from the two separa...
PLOS ONE, 2021
Background China’s National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program (NFATP) has substantially reduc... more Background China’s National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program (NFATP) has substantially reduced morbidity and HIV/AIDS incidence since 2003. However, HIV resistance to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) has been a major challenge for the current treatment of HIV/AIDS in China. Methods In the current study, we established a nested dynamic model to predict the multi-drug resistance dynamics of HIV among the heterosexual population and evaluated the impact of intervention measures on the transmission of drug resistance. We obtained an effective reproductive number R e d from each sub-model held at different stages of the dynamic model. Meanwhile, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to infer the weighted average effective reproductive number R e g from four HIV subtypes that sampled from 912 HIV-positive patients in China. It is an original and innovative method by fitting R e d to R e g by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to generate unknown parameters in R e d. Results By analyzing t...
Journal of Applied Analysis and Computation, 2016
A coupled within(immunological) and between-host (epidemiological) dynamic model was developed wh... more A coupled within(immunological) and between-host (epidemiological) dynamic model was developed which is about the spreading of drugsensitive HIV strain and drug-resistant HIV strain in men who have sex with men (MSM) population. The within-host model was nested within the betweenhost model by linking the dynamics of the within-host model to the additional host mortality and transmission rate of the infection. The existences of equilibria and their stabilities were found, as well as the thresholds RS and RR for the two different strains of the nested model. Some simulations about the spreading of the two HIV strains in Beijing MSM population were given. Our results show that the drug-resistant strain will increase quite fast in this population and both strains can coexist, which will make a big pressure for China’s “Four-Free-One-Care Policy”.
Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is able to persist in cellular and/or anatomical viral reservo... more Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is able to persist in cellular and/or anatomical viral reservoirs, despite the effective inhibition of virus replication by the antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here we develop a mathematical model to gain some insights of HIV persistence relevant to the lymphocyte recirculation network of immune system and the central nervous system (CNS). Our simulations and analyses illustrate the role of the CNS as a virus reservoir to prevent antiretroviral drugs from penetrating the blood-brain (or blood-testis) barrier, and we examine the long-term impact of this reservoir on the transmissibility of an infected individual. We observe numerically that level of HIV in peripheral blood may not accurately reflect the true mechanisms occurring within other organs.
International Journal of STD & AIDS, 2019
Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex with men (MSM) may protect agai... more Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex with men (MSM) may protect against HIV acquisition. We conducted a series of analyses to assess if expanded VMMC might reduce HIV incidence among MSM effectively and economically. We used a deterministic compartmental model to project new HIV cases (2016–2026) under annual VMMC coverage rates (λ) ranging from 0.0001 to 0.15. The ‘number needed to avert’ (NNA) is defined as the cumulative number of VMMCs conducted up to that year divided by the cumulative number of HIV cases averted in that specific year. Compared with the baseline circumcision coverage rate, we projected that new HIV cases would be reduced with increasing coverage. By 2026 (last year simulated), the model generated the lowest ratio (11.10) when the annual circumcision rate was the most optimistic (λ = 0.15). The breakeven point was observed at the year of 2019 with the annual VMMC coverage rate of 0.001. The total cost saved by averting HIV cases woul...
Objective: To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under differen... more Objective: To project the HIV/AIDS epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) under different combinations of HIV testing and linkage to care (TLC) interventions including antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Beijing, China. Design: Mathematical modeling. Methods: Using a mathematical model to fit prevalence estimates from 2000-2010, we projected trends in HIV prevalence and incidence during 2011-2020 under five scenarios: (S1) current intervention levels by averaging 2000-2010 coverage; (S2) increased ART coverage with current TLC; (S3) increased TLC/ART coverage; (S4) increased condom use; and (S5) increased TLC/ART plus increased condom use. Results: The basic reproduction number based upon the current level of interventions is significantly higher than 1 (R 0~2 :09; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.83-2.35), suggesting that the HIV epidemic will continue to increase to 2020. Compared to the 2010 prevalence of 7.8%, the projected HIV prevalence in 2020 for the five prevention scenarios will be: (S1) Current coverage: 21.4% (95% CI, 9.9-31.7%); (S2) Increased ART: 19.9% (95% CI, 9.9-28.4%); (S3) Increased TLC/ART: 14.5% (95% CI, 7.0-23.8%); (S4) Increased condom use: 13.0% (95% CI, 9.8-28.4%); and (S5) Increased TLC/ART and condom use: 8.7% (95% CI, 5.4-11.5%). HIV epidemic will continue to rise (R 0 w1) for S1-S4 even with hyperbolic coverage in the sensitivity analysis, and is expected to decline (R 0~0 :93) for S5. Conclusion: Our transmission model suggests that Beijing MSM will have a rapidly rising HIV epidemic. Even enhanced levels of TLC/ART will not interrupt epidemic expansion, despite optimistic assumptions for coverage. Promoting condom use is a crucial component of combination interventions.
Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021
Asian Journal of Chemistry, 2015
IEEE International Symposium on Electromagnetic Compatibility, 2007
In this paper, a simulation model is established to investigate on the conducted mechanism in sub... more In this paper, a simulation model is established to investigate on the conducted mechanism in substations installed with SVC (Static Var Compensator) devices with a view to characterizing the main causes of the conducted interference. The high-frequency macro model for thyristors is established with a nonlinear time-varying resistor to simulate the switching characteristics of the thyristors. Based on the above
International journal of nanomedicine, 2014
This study aimed to optimize and evaluate a thermoresponsive ophthalmic in situ gel containing cu... more This study aimed to optimize and evaluate a thermoresponsive ophthalmic in situ gel containing curcumin-loaded albumin nanoparticles (Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel). Albumin nanoparticles were prepared via a desolvation method, and the gels were prepared via a cold method. The central composite design and response surface method was used to evaluate the effects of varying Pluronic F127 and Pluronic F68 concentrations on the sol-gel transition temperature, which is an indicator of optimum formulations. The optimized formulation was a free-flowing liquid below 30.9°C that transformed into a semi-solid gel above 34.2°C after dilution with simulated tear fluid. Results of the in vitro release and erosion behavior study indicated that Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel achieved superior sustained-release effects and that incorporation of albumin nanoparticles exerted minimal effects on the gel structure. In addition, in vivo ophthalmic experiments employing Cur-BSA-NPs-Gel were subsequently performed in rabbits. In vivo...