Lucio Castro - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Lucio Castro
La indocumentación y el subregistro presentan un desafío para las posibilidades de desarrollo con... more La indocumentación y el subregistro presentan un desafío para las posibilidades de desarrollo con inclusión social en América Latina. Usando datos de la Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud (ENDES) en Perú (2008) y en República Dominicana (2007), este estudio elabora una caracterización de este grave problema para los hogares y los individuos. Se descubrió que el subregistro de los menores
In the 1990's, Argentina became a top destination for FDI to developing countries. The geogra... more In the 1990's, Argentina became a top destination for FDI to developing countries. The geographical distribution of FDI inflows was, however, highly uneven. In parallel, the spatial allocation of public infrastructure greatly mirrored these regional disparities. What were the determinants of FDI location? What was the role of public infrastructure? This paper attempts to answer these questions using recently developed
De acuerdo a UNICEF (2010), el 10% de los nacimientos en América Latina no son registrados legalm... more De acuerdo a UNICEF (2010), el 10% de los nacimientos en América Latina no son registrados legalmente. De hecho, en algunos países centroamericanos y sudamericanos, se estima que entre un 20 y 30% de la población carece de cualquier forma de identificación legal. Desde el punto de vista del desarrollo, la importancia del fenómeno del subregistro y la indocumentación radica
Policy Research Working Papers, 2007
Tax evasion is a pervasive problem in many countries. In particular, some developing countries do... more Tax evasion is a pervasive problem in many countries. In particular, some developing countries do not collect even half of what they would if taxpayers complied with the writ- ten letter of the law. The academic literature has not been oblivious to the need to explain why people pay (or do not pay) taxes. However, the empirical literature has not yet reached consensus. This paper reports the results of a large field experiment that tried to affect com- pliance by influencing property tax taxpayers’ beliefs regarding the levels of enforcement, reciprocity, and peer-effects of the tax system in a municipality in Argentina. Results indi- cate that those taxpayers that received the deterrence message have a higher probability (almost 5 percentage points) to comply than the taxpayers in the control group. No average effects are found for the other two treatments. However, this average effects masks impor- tant results. After receiving the reciprocity and the peer-effects messages, the probability of compliance increased for some taxpayers but it decreased for others according to their underlying distribution of beliefs. The evidence in this paper advances the state of knowl- edge, may help to reconcile some of the results in the literature, and provides the basis for advancing policies and research on tax compliance in developing countries.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in B... more This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short-run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a non-linear and nonmonotonic relationship between households' accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating an exogenous source of variation in perceived prices, which is exploited in a regression-discontinuity design. The estimates reveal that a price increase in the utility bill received by consumers causes a substantial and prompt decline in gas consumption. Hence they suggest that policy interventions via the price mechanism, such as price caps and subsidies, are powerful instruments to influence residential energy utilization patterns, even within a short time span.
For many in Latin America, the increasing participation of China and India in international marke... more For many in Latin America, the increasing participation of China and India in international markets is seen as a looming shadow of two 'mighty giants' on the region's manufacturing sector. Are they really mighty giants when it comes to their impact on manufacturing employment? This paper attempts to answer this question by estimating the effects of trade with China and India on Argentina's industrial employment. We use a dynamic econometric model and industry level data to estimate the effects of trade with China and India on the level of employment in Argentina's manufacturing sector. Results suggest that trade with China and India only had a small negative effect on industrial employment, even during the swift trade liberalization of the 1990s.
International Trade, 2005
... Corresponding author: Lucio Castro is Senior Economist at Maxwell Stamp PLC; Abbot's... more ... Corresponding author: Lucio Castro is Senior Economist at Maxwell Stamp PLC; Abbot's Court Farringdon Lane, London, EC1R 3AX; lcastro@maxwellstamp.com ♠ Daniel Saslavsky is a Research Fellow at the Inter-American Development Bank. danialsas@iadb.org Page 2. ...
Revista de Economía y Estadística, 2009
Esta sección incluye artículos que discuten en forma rigurosa, pero no técnica, temas corrientes ... more Esta sección incluye artículos que discuten en forma rigurosa, pero no técnica, temas corrientes de política económica que son de interés por su vinculación al mundo real, aún cuando la literatura económica no los haya todavía incorporado definitivamente y artículos que presentan contenidos teóricos o resultados empíricos con implicancias de política relevantes. Esta sección procura acercar a los investigadores académicos con los formuladores de política aportando, respectivamente unos y otros, desarrollos teórico-conceptuales y empíricos importantes y claridad e información sobre las prioridades de política. Los artículos enviados a para esta Sección no están sujetos a los procedimientos normales de referato de la Revista.
La indocumentación y el subregistro presentan un desafío para las posibilidades de desarrollo con... more La indocumentación y el subregistro presentan un desafío para las posibilidades de desarrollo con inclusión social en América Latina. Usando datos de la Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud (ENDES) en Perú (2008) y en República Dominicana (2007), este estudio elabora una caracterización de este grave problema para los hogares y los individuos. Se descubrió que el subregistro de los menores
In the 1990's, Argentina became a top destination for FDI to developing countries. The geogra... more In the 1990's, Argentina became a top destination for FDI to developing countries. The geographical distribution of FDI inflows was, however, highly uneven. In parallel, the spatial allocation of public infrastructure greatly mirrored these regional disparities. What were the determinants of FDI location? What was the role of public infrastructure? This paper attempts to answer these questions using recently developed
De acuerdo a UNICEF (2010), el 10% de los nacimientos en América Latina no son registrados legalm... more De acuerdo a UNICEF (2010), el 10% de los nacimientos en América Latina no son registrados legalmente. De hecho, en algunos países centroamericanos y sudamericanos, se estima que entre un 20 y 30% de la población carece de cualquier forma de identificación legal. Desde el punto de vista del desarrollo, la importancia del fenómeno del subregistro y la indocumentación radica
Policy Research Working Papers, 2007
Tax evasion is a pervasive problem in many countries. In particular, some developing countries do... more Tax evasion is a pervasive problem in many countries. In particular, some developing countries do not collect even half of what they would if taxpayers complied with the writ- ten letter of the law. The academic literature has not been oblivious to the need to explain why people pay (or do not pay) taxes. However, the empirical literature has not yet reached consensus. This paper reports the results of a large field experiment that tried to affect com- pliance by influencing property tax taxpayers’ beliefs regarding the levels of enforcement, reciprocity, and peer-effects of the tax system in a municipality in Argentina. Results indi- cate that those taxpayers that received the deterrence message have a higher probability (almost 5 percentage points) to comply than the taxpayers in the control group. No average effects are found for the other two treatments. However, this average effects masks impor- tant results. After receiving the reciprocity and the peer-effects messages, the probability of compliance increased for some taxpayers but it decreased for others according to their underlying distribution of beliefs. The evidence in this paper advances the state of knowl- edge, may help to reconcile some of the results in the literature, and provides the basis for advancing policies and research on tax compliance in developing countries.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in B... more This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short-run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a non-linear and nonmonotonic relationship between households' accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating an exogenous source of variation in perceived prices, which is exploited in a regression-discontinuity design. The estimates reveal that a price increase in the utility bill received by consumers causes a substantial and prompt decline in gas consumption. Hence they suggest that policy interventions via the price mechanism, such as price caps and subsidies, are powerful instruments to influence residential energy utilization patterns, even within a short time span.
For many in Latin America, the increasing participation of China and India in international marke... more For many in Latin America, the increasing participation of China and India in international markets is seen as a looming shadow of two 'mighty giants' on the region's manufacturing sector. Are they really mighty giants when it comes to their impact on manufacturing employment? This paper attempts to answer this question by estimating the effects of trade with China and India on Argentina's industrial employment. We use a dynamic econometric model and industry level data to estimate the effects of trade with China and India on the level of employment in Argentina's manufacturing sector. Results suggest that trade with China and India only had a small negative effect on industrial employment, even during the swift trade liberalization of the 1990s.
International Trade, 2005
... Corresponding author: Lucio Castro is Senior Economist at Maxwell Stamp PLC; Abbot's... more ... Corresponding author: Lucio Castro is Senior Economist at Maxwell Stamp PLC; Abbot's Court Farringdon Lane, London, EC1R 3AX; lcastro@maxwellstamp.com ♠ Daniel Saslavsky is a Research Fellow at the Inter-American Development Bank. danialsas@iadb.org Page 2. ...
Revista de Economía y Estadística, 2009
Esta sección incluye artículos que discuten en forma rigurosa, pero no técnica, temas corrientes ... more Esta sección incluye artículos que discuten en forma rigurosa, pero no técnica, temas corrientes de política económica que son de interés por su vinculación al mundo real, aún cuando la literatura económica no los haya todavía incorporado definitivamente y artículos que presentan contenidos teóricos o resultados empíricos con implicancias de política relevantes. Esta sección procura acercar a los investigadores académicos con los formuladores de política aportando, respectivamente unos y otros, desarrollos teórico-conceptuales y empíricos importantes y claridad e información sobre las prioridades de política. Los artículos enviados a para esta Sección no están sujetos a los procedimientos normales de referato de la Revista.