Luka Kuol - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Luka Kuol
Social Science Research Network, Feb 1, 2010
It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zo... more It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zones are considered to be ‘zones of social capital deficiency’. This article challenges this position, and attempts to develop a more nuanced understanding of the status of social capital in the context of Sudan’s civil war. The empirical findings clearly question any simplistic assumption
International relations and diplomacy, Apr 28, 2023
Africa Today, Sep 9, 1981
The Sudan is primarily an agricultural and pastoral society and national political independence p... more The Sudan is primarily an agricultural and pastoral society and national political independence predicates economic stability and increased production in the vast rural areas. Since Independence, the emphasis of Sudanese agricultural policy has been directed toward ...
Journal of Eastern African Studies, Jul 1, 2010
Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended m... more Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended more than 20 years of civil war between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA provides a framework for building peace and reforming Sudan within generally accepted principles of good governance and respect for rule of law. Despite its commitment to the CPA, the GoS opted not to implement the Abyei Protocol, one of the six protocols of the agreement. The GoS rejected the report of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC), while SPLM accepted it as final and binding as per the provisions of the CPA. This dispute over this report lasted more than three years and resulted in eruption of war in the Abyei Area that caused massive displacement and loss of innocent lives. In an effort to avoid further conflict, the parties agreed to take their dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague for final and binding decision. Since the Abyei Arbitration Tribunal issued its final and binding decision over the boundaries of Abyei Area, its implementation faces enormous challenges including the reluctance by GoS to respect the award. Sudan has a record of dishonouring agreements and if it is allowed again to dishonor this agreement, there will be no chance of addressing the root causes of conflict in the Sudan. The successful implementation of the decision of the Abyei Tribunal will be a litmus test to the commitment of the Sudanese leadership and the international community to the full implementation of the CPA as the only hope for building peace and reforming Sudan for better.
This paper analyses the causes of the Bahr el Ghazal famine in 1998 as a chain of political, envi... more This paper analyses the causes of the Bahr el Ghazal famine in 1998 as a chain of political, environmental, economical and social factors, as well as a failure of public action and early warning systems. The famine emerged from a long history of exploitation and repression by successive governments in the Sudan that aimed at destroying the lives of the civil population in Bahr el Ghazal region. This process resulted in the considerable erosion of assets endowment of the civil population, and led them to become increasing vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as El-Nino. The intensification of fighting between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Government of Sudan (GOS) during the critical months of cultivation in 1997 exacerbated further the level of vulnerability. The sorghum prices in the epicentre of the famine doubled and even quadrupled in some areas and 'price ripple' phenomenon was observed as markets failed to come to the famine victims. The paper also analyses the role of institutions such as the SPLM, the UN and NGOs, and social structures, in the management of famine in 1998. The paper clearly shows that the poor management of the famine in 1998 was largely related to the poor quality of information generated by monitoring and early warning systems that resulted in divided opinion among the charity agencies about the severity of the humanitarian crisis. It was left to the western media to reveal the presence of the famine and trigger, though late, a massive international relief response
International relations and diplomacy, Feb 28, 2023
Civil Wars, Sep 1, 2005
... argued that 'until we accumulate a more definitive body of knowledge about the under... more ... argued that 'until we accumulate a more definitive body of knowledge about the underlying causes of the war system we will fail to grasp the dual ... For example, during the 1990s von Braun et al.6 6. J. von Braun, T. Teklu and P. Webb, Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and ...
Routledge eBooks, Nov 22, 2006
Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, Jul 16, 2019
After its hard-won independence in 2011, South Sudan slid quickly into violent conflict and becam... more After its hard-won independence in 2011, South Sudan slid quickly into violent conflict and became a theatre of enormous human suffering. This article attempts to answer the question of what went wrong, and what prospects exist for South Sudanese to forge a resilient social contract to build and sustain peace. It employs an analytical framework postulating three drivers of such a contract, at the heart of which is how core issues of conflict that underpin violent conflict and fragility have been addressed. The research findings underscore that the way the ruling elites managed the transition to statehood, the development of exclusive weak institutions, and frail social cohesion have all served to undermine peace and the development of a resilient social contract. Core issues of conflict have not been addressed, witnessed by the eruption of civil war in 2013. While the 2015 Peace Agreement provides, at least on paper, the basis for forging a new social contract that holds promise for sustaining peace, building inclusive institutions and nurturing social cohesion, its realization requires political will, strategic leadership, and a national vision, which are currently in short supply.
IDS Bulletin, Oct 1, 2002
The twentieth century was the worst ever in terms of famine mortality, yet it was also the histor... more The twentieth century was the worst ever in terms of famine mortality, yet it was also the historical moment when the technical capacity to eradicate famine was first achieved, and when famine was seemingly ended in many historically famine-prone countries-Russia, China, India, Bangladesh. Depressingly, at the start of the twenty-first century, famine persists. It remains endemic in the Horn of Africa-Ethiopia and Sudan have both suffered mass mortality famines within the last five yearsit seems to be spreading to parts of Africa that were previously famine-free and it remains to be seen whether the North Korea famine during the 1990s was an aberration (the last ever 'central planning' famine) or the harbinger of something new. Why does famine persist? Are the 'new famines' more 'political' than historical famines, or are we simply recognising the centrality of political factors more than before? What do recent food crises in Ethiopia, Iraq, Madagascar, Malawi and Sudan tell us about the future trajectory of famine? What lessons can we draw from recent successes in containing or averting famine-in Bangladesh, Bosnia, Mongolia-for a new famine prevention policy agenda? These are some of the questions that this Bulletin, through an analysis of these and other case studies, tries to address. 'Excess mortality' is the most severe consequence of famine, and is a generally accepted indicator of a famine' s severity. Figures 1 and 2 present summary famine mortality estimates for the twentieth century, by decade and region. These figures are often contested and are subject to both overestimation and underreporting errors, so should be regarded as indicative rather than definitive. For instance, the figures of 30 million and 3 million, respectively for
Social Science Research Network, May 10, 2019
Journal of Eastern African Studies, Aug 26, 2014
The question of the future status of Abyei remains a deeply contested issue between Sudan and the... more The question of the future status of Abyei remains a deeply contested issue between Sudan and the independent South Sudan. The connection between the political violence in Abyei and eruption of the two civil wars in Sudan is sparsely documented, but this history reveals the character of the Abyei problem. This article provides an analysis of the role of political violence in the emergence of the dispute around the status of Abyei. It charts the evolution of the problem chronologically, first situating the history of the Ngok Dinka population of Abyei, and then mapping the history of violence through the independence period, the first civil war, the early 1970s and the failure of the Addis Ababa Agreement, and finally the second civil war in the 1980s. Political violence in Abyei became central to the large-scale contestation between the south and the north in Sudan, the struggle of the Abyei people contributing towards shaping a southern Sudanese identity and in defining the character of the independent state of South Sudan.
IDS Bulletin, Oct 1, 2002
Unfolding of the Global Dimension L u ka B ion g D en g* 2 The magnitude of famine in 1998 2.1 Ma... more Unfolding of the Global Dimension L u ka B ion g D en g* 2 The magnitude of famine in 1998 2.1 Malnutrition The nutritional status of a community during a 'complex emergency' is generally assessed through
African Affairs, Feb 11, 2010
It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zo... more It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zones are considered to be 'zones of social capital deficiency'. This article challenges this position, and attempts to develop a more nuanced understanding of the status of social capital in the context of Sudan's civil war. The empirical findings clearly question any simplistic assumption that conflict erodes social capital. While it is true that certain types of social capital have been a casualty of civil war, the opposite is the case in other communities. The article explains this difference by drawing a distinction between 'endogenous' and 'exogenous' counter-insurgency warfare. Communities in southern Sudan that were exposed to endogenous counter-insurgency warfare experienced a loss of social capital, but where exogenous violence dominated, there has been a deepening and strengthening of bonding social capital among and within communities. SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR, CIVIL WARS have become endemic to many African countries and the continent has the highest incidence of intense civil wars of any world region. This upsurge of violence has undoubtedly had a considerable negative impact on the socioeconomic structures of rural communities, resulting in loss of lives as well as widespread disruption and loss of productive assets and capacity. There is also a general perception that civil wars are eroding or weakening social capital, even leading to the breakdown of organized society. Jeremy Swift, for example, has noted that social capital, as one of the bases for survival in African rural societies, is being deliberately targeted by counter-insurgency warfare and often becomes one of the first casualties of civil war. 1 Its destruction, or absence, in turn makes civil war even more likely. In most studies on civil wars, investment in social capital in the 'war zone' is per
Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of material published in thi... more Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of material published in this paper, the Conflict Research Programme and the LSE accept no responsibility for the veracity of claims or accuracy of information provided by contributors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission of the publisher, nor be issued to the public or circulated in any form other than that in which it is published.
International Relations and Diplomacy
Journal of Eastern African Studies, 2010
Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended m... more Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended more than 20 years of civil war between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA provides a framework for building peace and reforming Sudan within generally accepted principles of good governance and respect for rule of law. Despite its commitment to the CPA, the GoS opted not to implement the Abyei Protocol, one of the six protocols of the agreement. The GoS rejected the report of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC), while SPLM accepted it as final and binding as per the provisions of the CPA. This dispute over this report lasted more than three years and resulted in eruption of war in the Abyei Area that caused massive displacement and loss of innocent lives. In an effort to avoid further conflict, the parties agreed to take their dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague for final and binding decision. Since the Abyei Arbitration Tribunal issued its final and binding decision over the boundaries of Abyei Area, its implementation faces enormous challenges including the reluctance by GoS to respect the award. Sudan has a record of dishonouring agreements and if it is allowed again to dishonor this agreement, there will be no chance of addressing the root causes of conflict in the Sudan. The successful implementation of the decision of the Abyei Tribunal will be a litmus test to the commitment of the Sudanese leadership and the international community to the full implementation of the CPA as the only hope for building peace and reforming Sudan for better.
Social Science Research Network, Feb 1, 2010
It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zo... more It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zones are considered to be ‘zones of social capital deficiency’. This article challenges this position, and attempts to develop a more nuanced understanding of the status of social capital in the context of Sudan’s civil war. The empirical findings clearly question any simplistic assumption
International relations and diplomacy, Apr 28, 2023
Africa Today, Sep 9, 1981
The Sudan is primarily an agricultural and pastoral society and national political independence p... more The Sudan is primarily an agricultural and pastoral society and national political independence predicates economic stability and increased production in the vast rural areas. Since Independence, the emphasis of Sudanese agricultural policy has been directed toward ...
Journal of Eastern African Studies, Jul 1, 2010
Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended m... more Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended more than 20 years of civil war between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA provides a framework for building peace and reforming Sudan within generally accepted principles of good governance and respect for rule of law. Despite its commitment to the CPA, the GoS opted not to implement the Abyei Protocol, one of the six protocols of the agreement. The GoS rejected the report of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC), while SPLM accepted it as final and binding as per the provisions of the CPA. This dispute over this report lasted more than three years and resulted in eruption of war in the Abyei Area that caused massive displacement and loss of innocent lives. In an effort to avoid further conflict, the parties agreed to take their dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague for final and binding decision. Since the Abyei Arbitration Tribunal issued its final and binding decision over the boundaries of Abyei Area, its implementation faces enormous challenges including the reluctance by GoS to respect the award. Sudan has a record of dishonouring agreements and if it is allowed again to dishonor this agreement, there will be no chance of addressing the root causes of conflict in the Sudan. The successful implementation of the decision of the Abyei Tribunal will be a litmus test to the commitment of the Sudanese leadership and the international community to the full implementation of the CPA as the only hope for building peace and reforming Sudan for better.
This paper analyses the causes of the Bahr el Ghazal famine in 1998 as a chain of political, envi... more This paper analyses the causes of the Bahr el Ghazal famine in 1998 as a chain of political, environmental, economical and social factors, as well as a failure of public action and early warning systems. The famine emerged from a long history of exploitation and repression by successive governments in the Sudan that aimed at destroying the lives of the civil population in Bahr el Ghazal region. This process resulted in the considerable erosion of assets endowment of the civil population, and led them to become increasing vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as El-Nino. The intensification of fighting between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Government of Sudan (GOS) during the critical months of cultivation in 1997 exacerbated further the level of vulnerability. The sorghum prices in the epicentre of the famine doubled and even quadrupled in some areas and 'price ripple' phenomenon was observed as markets failed to come to the famine victims. The paper also analyses the role of institutions such as the SPLM, the UN and NGOs, and social structures, in the management of famine in 1998. The paper clearly shows that the poor management of the famine in 1998 was largely related to the poor quality of information generated by monitoring and early warning systems that resulted in divided opinion among the charity agencies about the severity of the humanitarian crisis. It was left to the western media to reveal the presence of the famine and trigger, though late, a massive international relief response
International relations and diplomacy, Feb 28, 2023
Civil Wars, Sep 1, 2005
... argued that 'until we accumulate a more definitive body of knowledge about the under... more ... argued that 'until we accumulate a more definitive body of knowledge about the underlying causes of the war system we will fail to grasp the dual ... For example, during the 1990s von Braun et al.6 6. J. von Braun, T. Teklu and P. Webb, Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses, and ...
Routledge eBooks, Nov 22, 2006
Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, Jul 16, 2019
After its hard-won independence in 2011, South Sudan slid quickly into violent conflict and becam... more After its hard-won independence in 2011, South Sudan slid quickly into violent conflict and became a theatre of enormous human suffering. This article attempts to answer the question of what went wrong, and what prospects exist for South Sudanese to forge a resilient social contract to build and sustain peace. It employs an analytical framework postulating three drivers of such a contract, at the heart of which is how core issues of conflict that underpin violent conflict and fragility have been addressed. The research findings underscore that the way the ruling elites managed the transition to statehood, the development of exclusive weak institutions, and frail social cohesion have all served to undermine peace and the development of a resilient social contract. Core issues of conflict have not been addressed, witnessed by the eruption of civil war in 2013. While the 2015 Peace Agreement provides, at least on paper, the basis for forging a new social contract that holds promise for sustaining peace, building inclusive institutions and nurturing social cohesion, its realization requires political will, strategic leadership, and a national vision, which are currently in short supply.
IDS Bulletin, Oct 1, 2002
The twentieth century was the worst ever in terms of famine mortality, yet it was also the histor... more The twentieth century was the worst ever in terms of famine mortality, yet it was also the historical moment when the technical capacity to eradicate famine was first achieved, and when famine was seemingly ended in many historically famine-prone countries-Russia, China, India, Bangladesh. Depressingly, at the start of the twenty-first century, famine persists. It remains endemic in the Horn of Africa-Ethiopia and Sudan have both suffered mass mortality famines within the last five yearsit seems to be spreading to parts of Africa that were previously famine-free and it remains to be seen whether the North Korea famine during the 1990s was an aberration (the last ever 'central planning' famine) or the harbinger of something new. Why does famine persist? Are the 'new famines' more 'political' than historical famines, or are we simply recognising the centrality of political factors more than before? What do recent food crises in Ethiopia, Iraq, Madagascar, Malawi and Sudan tell us about the future trajectory of famine? What lessons can we draw from recent successes in containing or averting famine-in Bangladesh, Bosnia, Mongolia-for a new famine prevention policy agenda? These are some of the questions that this Bulletin, through an analysis of these and other case studies, tries to address. 'Excess mortality' is the most severe consequence of famine, and is a generally accepted indicator of a famine' s severity. Figures 1 and 2 present summary famine mortality estimates for the twentieth century, by decade and region. These figures are often contested and are subject to both overestimation and underreporting errors, so should be regarded as indicative rather than definitive. For instance, the figures of 30 million and 3 million, respectively for
Social Science Research Network, May 10, 2019
Journal of Eastern African Studies, Aug 26, 2014
The question of the future status of Abyei remains a deeply contested issue between Sudan and the... more The question of the future status of Abyei remains a deeply contested issue between Sudan and the independent South Sudan. The connection between the political violence in Abyei and eruption of the two civil wars in Sudan is sparsely documented, but this history reveals the character of the Abyei problem. This article provides an analysis of the role of political violence in the emergence of the dispute around the status of Abyei. It charts the evolution of the problem chronologically, first situating the history of the Ngok Dinka population of Abyei, and then mapping the history of violence through the independence period, the first civil war, the early 1970s and the failure of the Addis Ababa Agreement, and finally the second civil war in the 1980s. Political violence in Abyei became central to the large-scale contestation between the south and the north in Sudan, the struggle of the Abyei people contributing towards shaping a southern Sudanese identity and in defining the character of the independent state of South Sudan.
IDS Bulletin, Oct 1, 2002
Unfolding of the Global Dimension L u ka B ion g D en g* 2 The magnitude of famine in 1998 2.1 Ma... more Unfolding of the Global Dimension L u ka B ion g D en g* 2 The magnitude of famine in 1998 2.1 Malnutrition The nutritional status of a community during a 'complex emergency' is generally assessed through
African Affairs, Feb 11, 2010
It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zo... more It is generally assumed that violent conflict has a negative effect on social capital, and war zones are considered to be 'zones of social capital deficiency'. This article challenges this position, and attempts to develop a more nuanced understanding of the status of social capital in the context of Sudan's civil war. The empirical findings clearly question any simplistic assumption that conflict erodes social capital. While it is true that certain types of social capital have been a casualty of civil war, the opposite is the case in other communities. The article explains this difference by drawing a distinction between 'endogenous' and 'exogenous' counter-insurgency warfare. Communities in southern Sudan that were exposed to endogenous counter-insurgency warfare experienced a loss of social capital, but where exogenous violence dominated, there has been a deepening and strengthening of bonding social capital among and within communities. SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR, CIVIL WARS have become endemic to many African countries and the continent has the highest incidence of intense civil wars of any world region. This upsurge of violence has undoubtedly had a considerable negative impact on the socioeconomic structures of rural communities, resulting in loss of lives as well as widespread disruption and loss of productive assets and capacity. There is also a general perception that civil wars are eroding or weakening social capital, even leading to the breakdown of organized society. Jeremy Swift, for example, has noted that social capital, as one of the bases for survival in African rural societies, is being deliberately targeted by counter-insurgency warfare and often becomes one of the first casualties of civil war. 1 Its destruction, or absence, in turn makes civil war even more likely. In most studies on civil wars, investment in social capital in the 'war zone' is per
Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of material published in thi... more Although every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of material published in this paper, the Conflict Research Programme and the LSE accept no responsibility for the veracity of claims or accuracy of information provided by contributors. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission of the publisher, nor be issued to the public or circulated in any form other than that in which it is published.
International Relations and Diplomacy
Journal of Eastern African Studies, 2010
Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended m... more Abstract The Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was concluded in January 2005 ended more than 20 years of civil war between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA provides a framework for building peace and reforming Sudan within generally accepted principles of good governance and respect for rule of law. Despite its commitment to the CPA, the GoS opted not to implement the Abyei Protocol, one of the six protocols of the agreement. The GoS rejected the report of the Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC), while SPLM accepted it as final and binding as per the provisions of the CPA. This dispute over this report lasted more than three years and resulted in eruption of war in the Abyei Area that caused massive displacement and loss of innocent lives. In an effort to avoid further conflict, the parties agreed to take their dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague for final and binding decision. Since the Abyei Arbitration Tribunal issued its final and binding decision over the boundaries of Abyei Area, its implementation faces enormous challenges including the reluctance by GoS to respect the award. Sudan has a record of dishonouring agreements and if it is allowed again to dishonor this agreement, there will be no chance of addressing the root causes of conflict in the Sudan. The successful implementation of the decision of the Abyei Tribunal will be a litmus test to the commitment of the Sudanese leadership and the international community to the full implementation of the CPA as the only hope for building peace and reforming Sudan for better.