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Papers by Mihai Macovei

Research paper thumbnail of The Case against the New "Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 2021

The new “secular stagnation hypothesis” developed by Lawrence H. Summers attempts to justify why ... more The new “secular stagnation hypothesis” developed by Lawrence H. Summers attempts to justify why the demand stimulus applied in the aftermath of the global financial crisis failed to revive growth in a satisfactory manner. Building on previous ideas of Keynes, Hansen, and Bernanke, Summers claims that excess savings together with feeble investment drove the natural rate of interest down to zero and advanced economies into stagnation. As the US monetary policy rate is not allowed to fall below the zero bound, Summers calls for “quantitative easing” and more expansionary fiscal policy to spur investment demand. This paper refutes Summers’s hypothesis by revealing its internal inconsistencies and presenting both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the long-term evolution of savings, investment, productivity, and capital stock. It also estimates the natural rate of interest following the approach of Salerno (2020), which is further refined based on Rothbard’s “pure interest ...

Research paper thumbnail of The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: A Defense of Its General Validity

Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 2015

The paper aims to defend the general validity of the ABCT against the assumption that the theory ... more The paper aims to defend the general validity of the ABCT against the assumption that the theory does not hold if entrepreneurs are able to anticipate correctly the inflationary effects of a fiduciary credit expansion. Hülsmann (1998) raises this critique and puts forward a general theory of error cycles centered on government intervention in the economy in order to overcome the perceived shortcomings of the traditional ABCT. The paper analyzes the main implications of this critique of the ABCT in terms of entrepreneurial foresight and the optimal course of action necessary to prevent a monetary induced business cycle, in particular in the context of fractional reserve banks operating under fiat currency. It concludes that within the general framework of human action, entrepreneurs cannot arbitrage away clusters of errors, and the ABCT remains valid. This paper also questions whether Hülsmann’s essentialist approach can be a viable alternative to the traditional ABCT, and find that,...

Research paper thumbnail of The Case against the New "Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 2021

The new “secular stagnation hypothesis” developed by Lawrence H. Summers attempts to justify why ... more The new “secular stagnation hypothesis” developed by Lawrence H. Summers attempts to justify why the demand stimulus applied in the aftermath of the global financial crisis failed to revive growth in a satisfactory manner. Building on previous ideas of Keynes, Hansen, and Bernanke, Summers claims that excess savings together with feeble investment drove the natural rate of interest down to zero and advanced economies into stagnation. As the US monetary policy rate is not allowed to fall below the zero bound, Summers calls for “quantitative easing” and more expansionary fiscal policy to spur investment demand. This paper refutes Summers’s hypothesis by revealing its internal inconsistencies and presenting both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the long-term evolution of savings, investment, productivity, and capital stock. It also estimates the natural rate of interest following the approach of Salerno (2020), which is further refined based on Rothbard’s “pure interest ...

Research paper thumbnail of The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: A Defense of Its General Validity

Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 2015

The paper aims to defend the general validity of the ABCT against the assumption that the theory ... more The paper aims to defend the general validity of the ABCT against the assumption that the theory does not hold if entrepreneurs are able to anticipate correctly the inflationary effects of a fiduciary credit expansion. Hülsmann (1998) raises this critique and puts forward a general theory of error cycles centered on government intervention in the economy in order to overcome the perceived shortcomings of the traditional ABCT. The paper analyzes the main implications of this critique of the ABCT in terms of entrepreneurial foresight and the optimal course of action necessary to prevent a monetary induced business cycle, in particular in the context of fractional reserve banks operating under fiat currency. It concludes that within the general framework of human action, entrepreneurs cannot arbitrage away clusters of errors, and the ABCT remains valid. This paper also questions whether Hülsmann’s essentialist approach can be a viable alternative to the traditional ABCT, and find that,...

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