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Papers by Michele Postigliola
European Review of Economic History, 2020
The provincial gap in human capital at the time of Italy’s unification is a plausible explanation... more The provincial gap in human capital at the time of Italy’s unification is a plausible explanation for the North–South divide of the following decades. We show that the roots of the literacy gap that existed in 1861 can be traced back to Napoleonic educational reforms enacted between 1801 and 1814. We use exogenous variation in provincial distance to Paris to quantify effects, linking the duration of Napoleonic control to human capital. If the south had experienced the same Napoleonic impact as the north, southern literacy rates would have been up to 70 percent higher than they were in 1861.
We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 19... more We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 1911 boundaries, and providing a key variable for future studies on Italian economic history. The new data reveal, in line with national figures, two distinct stages: one of low population growth before 1821, and one of higher growth after 1821. A preliminary inspection suggests that the process of Unification did not represent a significant factor of change in the demographic trends of the majority of the Italian provinces, with only a few exceptions. Rather, it seems that the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the period of Restoration constituted the key dynamics in driving population growth.
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proxim... more This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proximate causes of growth across nineteenth-century Italy, finding a strong association between the intensity of French reforms and the accumulation of both social and human capital. We demonstrate that the effect induced by the French control is robust to geographical factors, to pre-French characteristics, and to the economic growth of Italian provinces during the nineteenth century. Then, we use exogenous variation in the provincial distance to Paris, from which French local armies received military and intelligence support to acquire and maintain control over conquered territories, turning correlations into causal relations. Our contribution unveils the existence of an institutional mechanism behind the differences in some important drivers of economic growth across Italian provinces prior to Unification.
Economics Letters, 2013
We investigate the sustainability of Italy's public …nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non-line... more We investigate the sustainability of Italy's public …nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non-linear perspective. Speci…cally, we employ the smooth transition regression approach to explore the scope for non-linear …scal adjustments of primary surpluses in response to the accumulation of debt. The empirical results show the occurrence of a signi…cantly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt when the debt-GDP ratio exceeded the trigger value of 110 percent. The afterthreshold positive response implies that the path of Italy's …scal policy is su¢ciently consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint.
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proxim... more This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proximate causes of growth across nineteenth-century Italy, finding a strong association between the intensity of French reforms and the accumulation of both social and human capital. We demonstrate that the effect induced by the French control is robust to geographical factors, to pre-French characteristics, and to the economic growth of Italian provinces during the nineteenth century. Then, we use exogenous variation in the provincial distance to Paris, from which French local armies received military and intelligence support to acquire and maintain control over conquered territories, turning correlations into causal relations. Our contribution unveils the existence of an institutional mechanism behind the differences in some important drivers of economic growth across Italian provinces prior to Unification.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Abstract Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government de... more Abstract Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2016. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 105 percent, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability.
Turkish Economic Review, 2016
“Italy in a European context” moved from a current research project of the EuroSapienza Research ... more “Italy in a European context” moved from a current research project of the EuroSapienza Research Center’s. The book adopts a multidisciplinary standpoint. Each single chapter investigates the role of Italy in pursuing the EU five targets by 2020 that are: the increase both of employment level and of R&D/ innovation expenditures, the energetic measures of climate change, the reduction of school drop-out rate and the counter actions against poverty and social exclusion. This work is divided into nine chapters and two sections. The first section is based on four chapters whose objective is to investigate EU economic policies and aspects that concern political and social inequality. The second section is based on five chapters whose objective is to investigate EU economic policies and aspects concerning business and environment.
This article proposes an explanation of Italy’s economic and social divide by taking account of t... more This article proposes an explanation of Italy’s economic and social divide by taking account of the institutional legacy left by French political control during the period 1796–1814. Using a new data set regarding the duration of French domination and ‘bridging’ social capital in Italy in the nineteenth century, we find that a prolonged French presence is associated with a higher level of social capital as from 1814. We suggest that the transmission channel lay in the improvements, both institutional and cultural, achieved in the areas where the French presence was more prolonged.
We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 200... more We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.
We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 19... more We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 1911 boundaries, and providing a key variable for future studies on Italian economic history. The new data reveal, in line with national figures, two distinct stages: one of low population growth before 1821, and one of higher growth after 1821. A preliminary inspection suggests that the process of Unification did not represent a significant factor of change in the demographic trends of the majority of the Italian provinces, with only a few exceptions. Rather, it seems that the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the period of Restoration constituted the key dynamics in driving population growth.
European Review of Economic History, 2020
The provincial gap in human capital at the time of Italy’s unification is a plausible explanation... more The provincial gap in human capital at the time of Italy’s unification is a plausible explanation for the North–South divide of the following decades. We show that the roots of the literacy gap that existed in 1861 can be traced back to Napoleonic educational reforms enacted between 1801 and 1814. We use exogenous variation in provincial distance to Paris to quantify effects, linking the duration of Napoleonic control to human capital. If the south had experienced the same Napoleonic impact as the north, southern literacy rates would have been up to 70 percent higher than they were in 1861.
We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 19... more We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 1911 boundaries, and providing a key variable for future studies on Italian economic history. The new data reveal, in line with national figures, two distinct stages: one of low population growth before 1821, and one of higher growth after 1821. A preliminary inspection suggests that the process of Unification did not represent a significant factor of change in the demographic trends of the majority of the Italian provinces, with only a few exceptions. Rather, it seems that the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the period of Restoration constituted the key dynamics in driving population growth.
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proxim... more This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proximate causes of growth across nineteenth-century Italy, finding a strong association between the intensity of French reforms and the accumulation of both social and human capital. We demonstrate that the effect induced by the French control is robust to geographical factors, to pre-French characteristics, and to the economic growth of Italian provinces during the nineteenth century. Then, we use exogenous variation in the provincial distance to Paris, from which French local armies received military and intelligence support to acquire and maintain control over conquered territories, turning correlations into causal relations. Our contribution unveils the existence of an institutional mechanism behind the differences in some important drivers of economic growth across Italian provinces prior to Unification.
Economics Letters, 2013
We investigate the sustainability of Italy's public …nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non-line... more We investigate the sustainability of Italy's public …nances from 1862 to 2012 adopting a non-linear perspective. Speci…cally, we employ the smooth transition regression approach to explore the scope for non-linear …scal adjustments of primary surpluses in response to the accumulation of debt. The empirical results show the occurrence of a signi…cantly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt when the debt-GDP ratio exceeded the trigger value of 110 percent. The afterthreshold positive response implies that the path of Italy's …scal policy is su¢ciently consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint.
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proxim... more This paper examines the effect of French political control during the Napoleonic period on proximate causes of growth across nineteenth-century Italy, finding a strong association between the intensity of French reforms and the accumulation of both social and human capital. We demonstrate that the effect induced by the French control is robust to geographical factors, to pre-French characteristics, and to the economic growth of Italian provinces during the nineteenth century. Then, we use exogenous variation in the provincial distance to Paris, from which French local armies received military and intelligence support to acquire and maintain control over conquered territories, turning correlations into causal relations. Our contribution unveils the existence of an institutional mechanism behind the differences in some important drivers of economic growth across Italian provinces prior to Unification.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Abstract Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government de... more Abstract Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2016. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 105 percent, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability.
Turkish Economic Review, 2016
“Italy in a European context” moved from a current research project of the EuroSapienza Research ... more “Italy in a European context” moved from a current research project of the EuroSapienza Research Center’s. The book adopts a multidisciplinary standpoint. Each single chapter investigates the role of Italy in pursuing the EU five targets by 2020 that are: the increase both of employment level and of R&D/ innovation expenditures, the energetic measures of climate change, the reduction of school drop-out rate and the counter actions against poverty and social exclusion. This work is divided into nine chapters and two sections. The first section is based on four chapters whose objective is to investigate EU economic policies and aspects that concern political and social inequality. The second section is based on five chapters whose objective is to investigate EU economic policies and aspects concerning business and environment.
This article proposes an explanation of Italy’s economic and social divide by taking account of t... more This article proposes an explanation of Italy’s economic and social divide by taking account of the institutional legacy left by French political control during the period 1796–1814. Using a new data set regarding the duration of French domination and ‘bridging’ social capital in Italy in the nineteenth century, we find that a prolonged French presence is associated with a higher level of social capital as from 1814. We suggest that the transmission channel lay in the improvements, both institutional and cultural, achieved in the areas where the French presence was more prolonged.
We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 200... more We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.
We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 19... more We present the first ever analysis of the provincial population in Italy since ca. 1770, using 1911 boundaries, and providing a key variable for future studies on Italian economic history. The new data reveal, in line with national figures, two distinct stages: one of low population growth before 1821, and one of higher growth after 1821. A preliminary inspection suggests that the process of Unification did not represent a significant factor of change in the demographic trends of the majority of the Italian provinces, with only a few exceptions. Rather, it seems that the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the period of Restoration constituted the key dynamics in driving population growth.