Margarete Redlin - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Margarete Redlin

Research paper thumbnail of The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19

International Journal of Health Economics and Management

The ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease ... more The ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease is widely discussed. Using a stringency index that comprises a variety of lockdown levels, such as school and workplace closures, we analyze the effectiveness of government restrictions. At the same time, we investigate the capacity of a range of lockdown measures to lower the reproduction rate by considering vaccination rates and testing strategies. By including all three components in an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovery) model, we show that a general and comprehensive test strategy is instrumental in reducing the spread of COVID-19. The empirical study demonstrates that testing and isolation represent a highly effective and preferable approach towards overcoming the pandemic, in particular until vaccination rates have risen to the point of herd immunity.

Research paper thumbnail of Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Research paper thumbnail of econstor Make Your Publications Visible . A Service of zbw

Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China’s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Center for International Economics

... indeed imply an analogous behavior, ie, we evaluate the importance of money laundering for ..... more ... indeed imply an analogous behavior, ie, we evaluate the importance of money laundering for ... Basically, financial means can be channeled into two activities: (i) aggressive actions (terrorist ... They are the terrorists' main instrument to make their political objectives known and to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19

Journal of Regulatory Economics

Non-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transm... more Non-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions allevia...

Research paper thumbnail of On the Effect of Immigration on Destination: Country Corruption

This paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizin... more This paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizing on a comprehensive dataset consisting of annual immigration stocks of OECD coun-tries from 207 countries of origin for the period 1984-2008, we explore different channels through which corruption might migrate. We employ different estimation methods using fixed effects and Tobit regressions in order to validate our findings. What is more, we also address the issue of endogeneity by using the Difference-Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. Independent of the econometric methodology we consistently find that while general migration has an insignificant effect on the destination country's corruption level, immigration from corruption-ridden origin countries boosts corruption in the destination country. Our findings provide a more profound understanding of the economic implications associated with migration flows.

Research paper thumbnail of CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Working Paper Series Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants

Research paper thumbnail of Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2020

This paper reconsiders the classic relationship between trade and economic development. We examin... more This paper reconsiders the classic relationship between trade and economic development. We examine the short-term and long-run dynamics between trade and income for 167 countries over the period 1970–2011 and assume that the effect is not homogenous for all countries but rather varies according to the development stage and the degree of trade openness. We apply panel cointegration, Granger causality and panel error correction in combination with Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and General Method of Moments estimation to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. The results suggest a statistically significant positive short-run and long-run global relationship between trade and income. However, when splitting the panel into different income and trade openness groups, a long-run relationship is observed only for high-income countries and countries with a relatively high degree of trade openness.

Research paper thumbnail of Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy

Defence and Peace Economics, 2017

Abstract This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this coh... more Abstract This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.

Research paper thumbnail of Technology diffusion, international integration and participation in developing economies - a review of major concepts and findings

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of International Integration and Regional Development in China

Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China’s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of International Integration and Regional Development in China

Concerns about the duration of China?s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China?s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China?s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants

Over the last twenty years piracy has become an increasing threat. Yet there are only very few ec... more Over the last twenty years piracy has become an increasing threat. Yet there are only very few econometric studies that examine under which conditions this phenomenon arises. As the number of maritime piracy and armed robbery incidents is characterized as count data and exhibits overdispersion, we apply random-effects negative binomial regressions for a panel dataset covering the period 1991-2010. Our results indicate that poor socio-economic, political, and institutional conditions in the host country increase the likelihood of piracy attacks.

Research paper thumbnail of Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis

This paper examines the short-term and long-run dynamics between per capita GDP growth and openne... more This paper examines the short-term and long-run dynamics between per capita GDP growth and openness for 158 countries over the period 1970-2009. We use panel cointegration tests and panel error-correction models (ECM) in combination with GMM estimation to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. We approach the problem of a potential endogeneity between openness and growth by including only growth rates and lagged values of the independent variable. Additionally, we apply Difference GMM and System GMM estimation. These estimators also address the issue of a possible correlation between the lagged endogenous variable and the error term. The results suggest a long-run relationship between openness and economic growth with a short-run adjustment to the deviation from the equilibrium for both directions of dependency. The long-run coefficients indicate a positive significant causality from openness to growth and vice versa, indicating that international integration i...

Research paper thumbnail of Short-run and Long-run Dynamics of Growth,Inequality and Poverty in the Developing World

Growth, inequality, and poverty are central elements of the development process. However the mutu... more Growth, inequality, and poverty are central elements of the development process. However the mutual effects and directions of causality have been, and remain, one of the most controversial issues. After introducing a simple theoretical framework we derive some fundamental relations between growth, inequality and poverty. In the empirical part we test for unit roots and coin- tegration and apply GMM techniques on an error correction model (ECM) to estimate the pairwise short-run and long-run dynamics for income growth and changes in inequality and poverty in a panel of 114 developing countries and six regional subpanels for 1981 to 2005. The results confirm the relations of the theoretical framework; the evidence shows that in nearly all cases the vari- ables exhibit a short-run and long-run relationship. The findings reveal positive bidirectional causality between growth and inequality as well as between in- equality and poverty, and negative bidirectional causality between growth a...

Research paper thumbnail of Providing aid to repressive terrorist source countries does not make the U.S. any safer

The terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 drew worldwide attention to the phenomenon of anti-... more The terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 drew worldwide attention to the phenomenon of anti-American transnational terrorism. Given the frequency of and dangers associated with anti-American terrorism, the U.S. government tries to protect itself by giving foreign assistance to countries from which anti-American aggression originates. Studying the nexus between U.S. economic and military aid, local human rights conditions and the emergence of anti-American transnational terrorism in aid-receiving countries, Thomas Gries, Daniel Meierrieks and Margarete Redlin, however, find no evidence that the U.S. is made any safer by providing assistance. Rather, they find that economic and military aid—even if given to local regimes that are highly repressive in their fight against terrorism—results in more anti-American terrorism originating from aid-receiving countries.

Research paper thumbnail of Oppressive Governments, Dependence on the United States and Anti-American Terrorism

Research paper thumbnail of Educational Assimilation of First-Generation and Second-Generation Immigrants in Germany

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational e... more Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational education mobility of immigrants in Germany by identifying the determinants of differences in educational stocks for first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to individuals without a migration background. Our results show that on average, first-generation immigrants have fewer years of schooling than native-born Germans and have a disproportionate share of lower educational qualifications. This gap is strongly driven by age at immigration, with immigration age and education revealing a nonlinear relationship. While the gap is relatively small among individuals who migrate at a young age, integrating in the school system at secondary school age leads to large disadvantages. Examining the educational mobility of immigrants in Germany, we identify an inter-generational catch-up in education. The gap in education between immigrants and natives is reduced for the second generation...

Research paper thumbnail of Oppressive Governments, US Closeness, and Anti-US Terrorism

Since the 9/11 attacks more attention has been given to the question why the United States is a m... more Since the 9/11 attacks more attention has been given to the question why the United States is a major target for transnational terrorism. What conditions motivate these terrorist activities? Are there specific characteristics in the terrorists home countries that provide a breeding ground for anti-US terrorism? In particular, we ask whether oppressive and bad governments in these countries and/or close connections with the US encourage attacks against the US. Oppressive and bad government behavior, such as human rights violations or poor governance, may provoke resistance against the authorities, including violent attacks. Attacking the United States instead of one s own government may be a promising option, especially if the government s capacity seems dependent on US support. In a count data approach we use panel data for 149 countries from 1981 to 2005. We measure governmental oppressiveness using the physical integrity rights index, and measure a government s closeness to the US...

Research paper thumbnail of The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19

International Journal of Health Economics and Management

The ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease ... more The ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease is widely discussed. Using a stringency index that comprises a variety of lockdown levels, such as school and workplace closures, we analyze the effectiveness of government restrictions. At the same time, we investigate the capacity of a range of lockdown measures to lower the reproduction rate by considering vaccination rates and testing strategies. By including all three components in an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovery) model, we show that a general and comprehensive test strategy is instrumental in reducing the spread of COVID-19. The empirical study demonstrates that testing and isolation represent a highly effective and preferable approach towards overcoming the pandemic, in particular until vaccination rates have risen to the point of herd immunity.

Research paper thumbnail of Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Research paper thumbnail of econstor Make Your Publications Visible . A Service of zbw

Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China’s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Center for International Economics

... indeed imply an analogous behavior, ie, we evaluate the importance of money laundering for ..... more ... indeed imply an analogous behavior, ie, we evaluate the importance of money laundering for ... Basically, financial means can be channeled into two activities: (i) aggressive actions (terrorist ... They are the terrorists' main instrument to make their political objectives known and to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19

Journal of Regulatory Economics

Non-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transm... more Non-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions allevia...

Research paper thumbnail of On the Effect of Immigration on Destination: Country Corruption

This paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizin... more This paper analyzes the impact of migration on destination-country corruption levels. Capitalizing on a comprehensive dataset consisting of annual immigration stocks of OECD coun-tries from 207 countries of origin for the period 1984-2008, we explore different channels through which corruption might migrate. We employ different estimation methods using fixed effects and Tobit regressions in order to validate our findings. What is more, we also address the issue of endogeneity by using the Difference-Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. Independent of the econometric methodology we consistently find that while general migration has an insignificant effect on the destination country's corruption level, immigration from corruption-ridden origin countries boosts corruption in the destination country. Our findings provide a more profound understanding of the economic implications associated with migration flows.

Research paper thumbnail of CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Working Paper Series Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants

Research paper thumbnail of Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2020

This paper reconsiders the classic relationship between trade and economic development. We examin... more This paper reconsiders the classic relationship between trade and economic development. We examine the short-term and long-run dynamics between trade and income for 167 countries over the period 1970–2011 and assume that the effect is not homogenous for all countries but rather varies according to the development stage and the degree of trade openness. We apply panel cointegration, Granger causality and panel error correction in combination with Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and General Method of Moments estimation to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. The results suggest a statistically significant positive short-run and long-run global relationship between trade and income. However, when splitting the panel into different income and trade openness groups, a long-run relationship is observed only for high-income countries and countries with a relatively high degree of trade openness.

Research paper thumbnail of Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy

Defence and Peace Economics, 2017

Abstract This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this coh... more Abstract This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.

Research paper thumbnail of Technology diffusion, international integration and participation in developing economies - a review of major concepts and findings

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of International Integration and Regional Development in China

Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China’s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China’s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of International Integration and Regional Development in China

Concerns about the duration of China?s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant c... more Concerns about the duration of China?s growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China?s high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical mode...

Research paper thumbnail of Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants

Over the last twenty years piracy has become an increasing threat. Yet there are only very few ec... more Over the last twenty years piracy has become an increasing threat. Yet there are only very few econometric studies that examine under which conditions this phenomenon arises. As the number of maritime piracy and armed robbery incidents is characterized as count data and exhibits overdispersion, we apply random-effects negative binomial regressions for a panel dataset covering the period 1991-2010. Our results indicate that poor socio-economic, political, and institutional conditions in the host country increase the likelihood of piracy attacks.

Research paper thumbnail of Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis

This paper examines the short-term and long-run dynamics between per capita GDP growth and openne... more This paper examines the short-term and long-run dynamics between per capita GDP growth and openness for 158 countries over the period 1970-2009. We use panel cointegration tests and panel error-correction models (ECM) in combination with GMM estimation to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. We approach the problem of a potential endogeneity between openness and growth by including only growth rates and lagged values of the independent variable. Additionally, we apply Difference GMM and System GMM estimation. These estimators also address the issue of a possible correlation between the lagged endogenous variable and the error term. The results suggest a long-run relationship between openness and economic growth with a short-run adjustment to the deviation from the equilibrium for both directions of dependency. The long-run coefficients indicate a positive significant causality from openness to growth and vice versa, indicating that international integration i...

Research paper thumbnail of Short-run and Long-run Dynamics of Growth,Inequality and Poverty in the Developing World

Growth, inequality, and poverty are central elements of the development process. However the mutu... more Growth, inequality, and poverty are central elements of the development process. However the mutual effects and directions of causality have been, and remain, one of the most controversial issues. After introducing a simple theoretical framework we derive some fundamental relations between growth, inequality and poverty. In the empirical part we test for unit roots and coin- tegration and apply GMM techniques on an error correction model (ECM) to estimate the pairwise short-run and long-run dynamics for income growth and changes in inequality and poverty in a panel of 114 developing countries and six regional subpanels for 1981 to 2005. The results confirm the relations of the theoretical framework; the evidence shows that in nearly all cases the vari- ables exhibit a short-run and long-run relationship. The findings reveal positive bidirectional causality between growth and inequality as well as between in- equality and poverty, and negative bidirectional causality between growth a...

Research paper thumbnail of Providing aid to repressive terrorist source countries does not make the U.S. any safer

The terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 drew worldwide attention to the phenomenon of anti-... more The terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 drew worldwide attention to the phenomenon of anti-American transnational terrorism. Given the frequency of and dangers associated with anti-American terrorism, the U.S. government tries to protect itself by giving foreign assistance to countries from which anti-American aggression originates. Studying the nexus between U.S. economic and military aid, local human rights conditions and the emergence of anti-American transnational terrorism in aid-receiving countries, Thomas Gries, Daniel Meierrieks and Margarete Redlin, however, find no evidence that the U.S. is made any safer by providing assistance. Rather, they find that economic and military aid—even if given to local regimes that are highly repressive in their fight against terrorism—results in more anti-American terrorism originating from aid-receiving countries.

Research paper thumbnail of Oppressive Governments, Dependence on the United States and Anti-American Terrorism

Research paper thumbnail of Educational Assimilation of First-Generation and Second-Generation Immigrants in Germany

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational e... more Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational education mobility of immigrants in Germany by identifying the determinants of differences in educational stocks for first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to individuals without a migration background. Our results show that on average, first-generation immigrants have fewer years of schooling than native-born Germans and have a disproportionate share of lower educational qualifications. This gap is strongly driven by age at immigration, with immigration age and education revealing a nonlinear relationship. While the gap is relatively small among individuals who migrate at a young age, integrating in the school system at secondary school age leads to large disadvantages. Examining the educational mobility of immigrants in Germany, we identify an inter-generational catch-up in education. The gap in education between immigrants and natives is reduced for the second generation...

Research paper thumbnail of Oppressive Governments, US Closeness, and Anti-US Terrorism

Since the 9/11 attacks more attention has been given to the question why the United States is a m... more Since the 9/11 attacks more attention has been given to the question why the United States is a major target for transnational terrorism. What conditions motivate these terrorist activities? Are there specific characteristics in the terrorists home countries that provide a breeding ground for anti-US terrorism? In particular, we ask whether oppressive and bad governments in these countries and/or close connections with the US encourage attacks against the US. Oppressive and bad government behavior, such as human rights violations or poor governance, may provoke resistance against the authorities, including violent attacks. Attacking the United States instead of one s own government may be a promising option, especially if the government s capacity seems dependent on US support. In a count data approach we use panel data for 149 countries from 1981 to 2005. We measure governmental oppressiveness using the physical integrity rights index, and measure a government s closeness to the US...