Michel Tenikue - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Michel Tenikue

While medical staff has been serving on the front lines since early March, each research discipli... more While medical staff has been serving on the front lines since early March, each research discipline aims to offer its humble contribution to the battle against the pandemic. The public health crisis and the measures implemented to make it less severe are more than likely to lead to a deep economic recession which opens up the possibility of systemic collapse of the global economy or of the European financial market. Unsurprisingly, leading economists around the world have suggested plans of actions to mitigate economic damages from Covid-19. Yet, lack of hindsight and information available for research at present makes any forecasting exercise difficult. In this note, RECOV id-a group of economists based in Luxembourg who join forces to assist the Task Force for the Coordination of the Public Research Sector in the Context of the Covid-19 Pandemic (Work Package 7 led by Aline Muller; see Section B)-aims to rough out the subject and provide knowledge on the economic issues related to the Covid-19 crisis. We provide a summary of ongoing research, proceed to back-of-the-envelope estimations of the "direct" economic impact of the health crisis and resulting policy measures, anticipate forces that may drive to a breakdown of the global economic system, discuss the policy options that are available to decision makers to mitigate the short-run costs and the risk of a systemic collapse, and provide suggestions for future research. Data and quantitative analyses are obviously needed to go further. However, in the face of such an unprecedented challenge, implementing preemptive measures and announcing future policy actions can help restore confidence in the future and reinforce trust in democracy, national and international institutions. We also discuss some "double-edged" mechanisms that can (i) either jeopardize the recovery and lead to protectionist and populist pressures... or make global institutions stronger in the longer term, (ii) either increase global inequality... or induce more solidarity between rich and poor countries, (iii) slow down technical progress... or accelerate a transition towards a new form of digital capitalism. 1 The main messages to take away from this note are the following: transportation) as well as manufacturing industries (such as shoemaking, woodworking) and agriculture. By contrast, the financial performance of health-care firms has increased.

This paper uses biographical data from Dakar and Yaounde, two big African cities, to study the li... more This paper uses biographical data from Dakar and Yaounde, two big African cities, to study the link between the number of siblings and school attainment. The data describe all fertility events meet by parents and the sibling?s size structure of every child over time. The average sibling size effect is estimated first. Then, the sibling?s size at given age effect is estimated. The results show that, in Dakar, both the overall and age specific siblings size effect on education are negative and statistically significant. In Yaounde, the overall effect is not significant, but we observed negative effects at some schooling ages (between 14 and 16). This paper uses biographical data from Dakar and Yaounde, two big African cities, to study the link between the number of siblings and school attainment. The data describe all fertility events meet by parents and the sibling?s size structure of every child over time. The average sibling size effect is estimated first. Then, the sibling?s size ...

This paper uses Demographic and Health Surveys data from about 30 sub-Saharan African countries t... more This paper uses Demographic and Health Surveys data from about 30 sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the link between the birth of an ?unintended child? and schooling decisions of children (dropout and entry). After controlling for local unobserved heterogeneity, we show that, the birth of an ?unintended child? hinders child schooling. It reduces the probability of current school enrolment. As for school dynamics, it increases the probability that a child aged 6 to 18 years drops out of school and it decreases the probability that a child aged 6 to 9 years starts schooling. This result suggests that, the unexpected birth of a child strengthens household?s resources constraints and reduces human capital investments. The results also highlight the importance of the timing of the unexpected birth and the heterogeneity of the effect according to child characteristics.

The dissertation is a collection of 3 articles. The first estimates two types of models to invest... more The dissertation is a collection of 3 articles. The first estimates two types of models to investigate the role played by family background and individual characteristics in keeping children at school up to the end of secondary education. The first is a censored ordered probit model. It accounts for right-censoring of the schooling level of children enrolled at school at the time of survey. The second is a sequential model. It accounts for the "educational selectivity" and for the fact that, some family background characteristics or individual characteristics may affect the likelihood to reach one level of education but not others. Our striking findings arise from the results of the sequential model: (1) household's head education reveals some threshold effect, university education is needed to enhance the probability to complete secondary education; (2) parental wealth has no effect on the probability to start primary education. However, it increases the probability t...

SSRN Electronic Journal

Sex and birth order of siblings are important determinants of an adolescent's risky behaviour and... more Sex and birth order of siblings are important determinants of an adolescent's risky behaviour and economic outcomes in later age. Both parental choices and "peer-effect" are the two possible mechanisms investigated in the literature. This paper studies the "peer-effect" to show how gender of preceding siblings shape risky sexual behaviour of teen girls in Nigeria, a context characterized by age and gender based hierarchy. Using individual data from the DHS surveys it shows that women born in families with a male firstborn are significantly less likely to have a premarital teen pregnancy. Such reduction is assessed to be as high as 33% when compared to their counterparts in female firstborn families. Additionally, the effect of a male firstborn is a function of age difference and his survival status, as well as the presence of the father in the household. The study underlines how gender roles and the birth order of siblings affect adolescents' risky behaviour. * Part of this research was done when Miron Tequame was a visiting researcher at LISER.

Lyon Meeting, Mar 14, 2014

This paper investigates the impact of microfinance participation in India on education outcomes. ... more This paper investigates the impact of microfinance participation in India on education outcomes. It exploits three waves of a first-hand panel data collection about the living standards of members of informal credit and saving associations, known as SHGs, and control households in villages of Jharkhand, India. Combining matching and panel-data techniques, we document important improvements over time in the enrollment rate of school-age children in member households. The effects are particularly strong for girls (making up for the gender gap observed at baseline) and beyond compulsory education (corresponding to a strong reduction in drop-out rates). We show that these effects are related to a strong decrease in girls' productive labor and to an internal household reorganization.

Demographic Analysis - Selected Concepts, Tools, and Applications

Social science has made great strides over the last half-century, with some of the most significa... more Social science has made great strides over the last half-century, with some of the most significant gains made in micro-level studies. However, analysts interested in broad societal change will not be satisfied with this micro-level detail alone. They will find the detail useful, but they still need to convert the micro-level relations into macro-level outcomes. Decomposition methods rooted in demography can help in those situations. This chapter discusses how these decomposition methods can build on other methods traditionally used in the social sciences. It specifies the kind of problems that are well suited for decomposition analysis, and it briefly reviews three basic types of decomposition approaches (demographic, regression, and mathematical). We illustrate, using mortality data as an example, and conclude with some suggestions for how this method might more broadly advance macrosocial research.

Demographic Research

BACKGROUND While there is a substantial amount of literature documenting that twins have higher m... more BACKGROUND While there is a substantial amount of literature documenting that twins have higher mortality than singletons, that literature does not address the questions of whether this disadvantage of twins eventually disappears and if so, at what age. OBJECTIVES This paper seeks to determine if there is convergence of mortality of twins and singletons and if so, to determine the age at which convergence takes place. We also examine how twin-singleton mortality differences have changed across successive cohorts. METHODS We use data on more than 3 million live births from 99 Demographic and Health Surveys carried out between 1990 and 2013 in 34 different countries in sub-Saharan Africa to examine age-specific mortality of twins and singletons, by month for the first year of life and by year up to age 25. RESULTS We find that mortality of twins is considerably higher than that of singletons in the first year of life, and especially in the first month. As children age, a narrowing of the mortality difference occurs, with convergence taking place by age 6. Over time, mortality of both twins and singletons has declined, but the disadvantage of twins has persisted.

Population and Development Review

Is Africa is different?" The question permeates the debate over Africa's fertility transitions, w... more Is Africa is different?" The question permeates the debate over Africa's fertility transitions, whether analysts ponder the causes, the consequences, or the socioeconomic patterns of these transitions. Do Africa's transitions occur at a lower threshold of economic development compared to, say, Latin American countries (Bongaarts and Casterline 2013; Bongaarts, this volume)? Will they yield a demographic dividend, as was the case among the Asian Tigers (Bloom et al. 2007)? And do they spread evenly across socioeconomic groups, as was claimed for Western Europe, or, instead, do they trickle from top to bottom income groups in ways that increase what we refer to in this chapter as fertility inequality (Caldwell, Orubuloye, and Caldwell 1992; Shapiro and Tambashe 2002)? A tentative consensus is emerging on the first two debates (Bongaarts this volume; Karra, Canning, and Wilde, this volume), 1 but not on the last. Unresolved in this third debate is a question about evenness-specifically, whether African transitions follow a horizontal, inequality-preserving pattern (Caldwell, Orubuloye, and Caldwell 1992) or a more top-down sequence (Shapiro and Tambashe 2002). This unresolved question has implications for both the pace and dividends of African transitions. Fertility transitions are more likely to stall, and the dividends from these transitions are less likely to be evenly shared, if transitions occur in a top-down manner that increases fertility inequality. Studies of fertility inequality can thus inform both scientific concerns over stalling transitions (Bongaarts 2008; Garenne 2008; Schoumaker 2009) and policy concerns over the prospects for a shared dividend in sub-Saharan Africa (Bloom et al. 2007). Against this background, we explore how and why fertility inequality is changing during the course of African demographic transitions. To explore this topic, one needs prior clarification on three fronts. First is theory. Monitoring inequality is a simple empirical task, but explaining

Journal of Development Effectiveness

We evaluate the effects of different marketing and distribution techniques on the purchase of Lon... more We evaluate the effects of different marketing and distribution techniques on the purchase of Long-Lasting Insecticide-Treated Nets (LL-ITN). Using an individually assigned quasi-randomised controlled trial in urban Senegal, we look at the impacts of different sale treatments. Receiving an offer to purchase an LL-ITN with a voucher valid for seven days increases purchases by 23 percentage points, compared to an on-the-spot sale offer. We find suggestive evidence that providing information is not significantly correlated to the demand for LL-ITNs, but appears to be for individuals who have never attended school and have poor knowledge of malaria.

Journal of African Economies, 2016

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was the last major world region to experience the fertility dec... more ABSTRACT Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was the last major world region to experience the fertility decline that all industrialized countries have gone through and that much of the developing world has experienced in large part. It has uniquely high fertility: for 2015-2020, the United Nations estimates the total fertility rate at 4.75 for SSA, compared to 2.15 for Asia and 2.05 Latin America and the Caribbean. The ongoing fertility transition in the region has been comparatively slow and subject to stalling. At the same time, women’s educational attainment and infant and child mortality have been shown in the demography literature to be important determinants of fertility and fertility decline. Since the 1980s, fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has been falling in many countries while women’s school enrollment and educational attainment have been increasing and infant and child mortality for the most part has been declining. Previous research using aggregated data has shown the importance of growth in women’s schooling and reduction in infant and child mortality as major factors contributing to fertility decline in the region. This research uses individual-level micro data and a well-known decomposition technique for analyzing differences or changes to quantify the importance of increased women’s education and declining infant and child mortality in contributing to the observed declines in fertility in numerous countries. More specifically, this paper examines the quantitative impact of these two factors in sub-Saharan Africa in contributing to the ongoing decline in fertility that has been taking place in the region. Data come from urban and rural places in 31 countries, and are from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The methodology is to decompose observed changes in fertility to changes attributable to different factors, including the two key variables of interest – women’s education and infant and child mortality – and a control variable, age.

International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, Apr 28, 2015

This article highlights the socioeconomic factors that determine coping strategies of producers f... more This article highlights the socioeconomic factors that determine coping strategies of producers facing the cotton crisis since 2004. A multinomial logit model is estimated to examine the determinants of the choice of one strategy relative to another. The results show a correlation between socioeconomic factors and the strategies chosen. It is observed that the age of the producer, cotton acreage before the crisis, the total arable land available, involvement in off-farm activities and the lack of financial means affect producer's choices. Financial constraint is the more biding constraint. Under limited financial resources, producers tend to reduce cotton acreage.

This paper examines the determinants of schooling in developing countries with a special emphasis... more This paper examines the determinants of schooling in developing countries with a special emphasis on birth order. We present a theoretical model accounting for the dynamics of birth order and its interaction with credit constraints. We show that since elder children are the only source of additional income when constraints get tighter in poor families, they work more than their

African Development Review, 2015

Oxford Development Studies, 2015