Mar Cerbán - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Issue 195 by Mar Cerbán

Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting of short-term flow freight congestion: A study case of Algeciras Bay Port (Spain)

The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and i... more The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and it is this paper’s main object of study.
Forecasting freight flows can be a useful tool for the whole logistics chain. In this work, a complete methodology is presented in order to
obtain the best model to predict freight congestion situations at ports. The prediction is modeled as a classification problem and different
approaches are tested (k-Nearest Neighbors, Bayes classifier and Artificial Neural Networks). A panel of different experts (post–hoc
methods of Friedman test) has been developed in order to select the best model. The proposed methodology is applied in the Strait of
Gibraltar’s logistics hub with a study case being undertaken in Port of Algeciras Bay. The results obtained reveal the efficiency of the
presented models that can be applied to improve daily operations planning.

Papers by Mar Cerbán

Research paper thumbnail of Hybrid Approaches of Support Vector Regression and SARIMA Models to Forecast the Inspections Volume

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2014

The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the numbe... more The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the number, the reliability and the security of inspections at the European borders. In this context of high security, this work applies a two-step procedure based on the hybridization of SARIMA and Support Vector Regression to forecast the inspection volume at the Border Inspection Post of Port of Algeciras Bay. Three hybrid approaches are proposed and two prediction horizons are evaluated. Based on several performance indexes to assess the goodness-of-fit of the models, the hybrid approaches perform better than the SARIMA and SVR models used separately. Hence, the study shows that the hybrid methodology improves the single methods. The experimental results can provide relevant information for resource planning and may become a decision-making tool in the inspection process of other European BIPs.

Research paper thumbnail of Bunkering competition and competitiveness at the ports of the Gibraltar Strait

Journal of Transport Geography, 2011

This article provides an exploratory analysis from the perspective of the port operators of the f... more This article provides an exploratory analysis from the perspective of the port operators of the factors that determine the competitiveness of fuel supply at the ports of the Gibraltar Strait (Bay of Algeciras, Gibraltar and Ceuta). The methodology is based on interviews and questionnaires focused on public and private institutions involved in the port services. The results reveal that fuel prices and geographical advantage are the two main factors seen by Gibraltar Strait port operators as influencing shipping company choice of bunkering port. In order of importance, other identified factors related to the cost and quality of services, including port tariffs, supply waiting time, service rates, simplicity of crew changing, presence of restrictive environmental regulations and customs strictness.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of the Global and Technical Efficiencies of Major Spanish Container Ports

International Journal of Transport Economics, 2015

This study analyses the changes in the efficiency of the 13 Spanish ports with the most container... more This study analyses the changes in the efficiency of the 13 Spanish ports with the most container traffic during the period 2008-2011. The main input and output variables analyzed are those used in many previous studies of port efficiency, and the methodology employed is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Changes in efficiency are studied for each year of the period 2008-2011 using Constant Return to Scale (CRS/CCR) and Variable Return to Scale (VRS/BCC) DEA models returns to scale. The results suggest that the ports of Algeciras Bay and Seville are the most efficient in the Spanish port system, ahead of important ports such as Barcelona and Valencia. Moreover, high levels of technical efficiency are associated with transshipment as opposed to gateway ports.

Research paper thumbnail of Efficiency Evolution of Largest Iberian Peninsula Container Ports: An Application of Malmquist Productivity Index

International Journal of Transport Economics, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Clasificación de los puertos españoles mediante análisis cluster

Informes de la Construcción, 2019

El sistema portuario español es sumamente complejo y admite el estudio desde numerosos puntos de ... more El sistema portuario español es sumamente complejo y admite el estudio desde numerosos puntos de vista En este artículo se estudian los puertos según su actividad y sus características externas para la clasificación en agrupaciones. Para ello se han utilizado indicadores que reflejan la actividad portuaria y se han aplicado sobre las 28 Autoridades Portuarias españolas. Con estos indicadores se ha aplicado una metodología específica para a través del análisis de conglomerados (cluster) para averiguar cuáles son los agrupamientos que se producen. El análisis cluster se complementa con otros análisis estadísticos: análisis multivariante y componentes principales, para conocer qué indicadores son los más relevantes en las agrupaciones y cómo se comportan. Los resultados finales obtenidos muestran que este tipo de estudios estadísticos son apropiados para realizarse en el entorno portuario y que los agrupamientos reflejan correctamente la realidad portuaria.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic and environmental competitiveness of container shipping on alternative maritime routes in the Asia-Europe trade flow

Maritime Transport Research

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of Bootstrapped Operating Efficiency in Container Ports. A Case Study in Spain and Portugal

INCREaSE 2019, 2019

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the main Spanish and Portuguese container... more The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the main Spanish and Portuguese containers ports observing if they are operating below their production capabilities during the period between 2008–2017. To achieve this, one possible method is to calculate DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) efficiency, the scale efficiency targets, and in order to consider the variability across different samples a bootstrap scheme has been applied.

Research paper thumbnail of State-owned Spanish Port System oversizing: an analysis of maximum operational capacity

Maritime Policy & Management, 2017

The State-owned Spanish Port System (SPS) includes 46 ports for general use that are managed by t... more The State-owned Spanish Port System (SPS) includes 46 ports for general use that are managed by the 28 port authorities distributed along the 8000 km of Spanish coast. SPS has not grown at a rate comparable to that of international maritime transportation. In our paper, we start from the hypothesis of a port system that appears to be oversized, subsidized, with regard to container traffic. Quantifying the maximum operational capacity of the different container terminals along the Spanish coast and their mooring capacities will provide the available dimensions for this type of traffic. In a second step, we will analyse whether SPS are sufficient (according to the perspective of international standards) to meet Spain's needs, which is related to Spain's strategic geographic location and its need to move containerized cargo for the domestic market. The paper concludes SPS has an oversized that limits competitiveness, which is indicated by the average transshipment ratio of approximately 50% and an average unweighted idle ratio of port facilities designed for container traffic of over 60% in the eight main ports.

Research paper thumbnail of Efficient goods inspection demand at ports: a comparative forecasting approach

International Transactions in Operational Research, 2017

A high number of freight inspections carried out at Border Inspection Posts (BIPs) of ports could... more A high number of freight inspections carried out at Border Inspection Posts (BIPs) of ports could lead to significant time delays and congestion problems within the port system, decreasing the efficiency of the port. Therefore, this work is focused on achieving the most accurate prediction of the daily number of goods subject to inspection at BIPs. Five prediction methods were used for this aim: multiple linear regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, artificial neural networks, and support vector regression models. Several nonlinear tests were used to study the nature of the time series and the best method was obtained by the comparison of the prediction results based on performance indexes that provide the goodness-of-fit. The result of this study may become a supporting tool for the prediction of the number of goods subject to inspection in BIPs of other international seaports or airports.

Research paper thumbnail of Short-term forecasting of intermodal freight using ANNs and SVR: Case of the Port of Algeciras Bay

Libro de Actas CIT2016. XII Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte, 2016

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Intern... more This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Research paper thumbnail of A two-stage forecasting approach for short-term intermodal freight prediction

International Transactions in Operational Research, 2016

The forecasting of the freight transportation, especially the short-term case, is an important to... more The forecasting of the freight transportation, especially the short-term case, is an important topic in the daily supply chain management. Intermodal freight transportation is subject to multiple complex calendar effects arising in the port environment. The use of prediction methods provides information that may be helpful as a decision-making tool in the management and planning of operations processes in ports. This work addresses the forecasting problem on a daily basis by a novel two-stage scheme combination to offer reliable predictions of fresh freight weight on Ro-Ro (roll-on/roll-off) transport for 7 and 14 days ahead. The study compares daily forecasting with a weekly forecasting approach. The applies database preprocessing and Bayesian regularization neural networks (BRNN) in Stage I. In Stage II, an ensemble framework of the best BRNN models is used to enhance the Stage I forecasting. The results show that the models assessed are a promising tool to predict freight time series for Ro-Ro transport.

Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting of short-term flow freight congestion: A study case of Algeciras Bay Port (Spain)

DYNA, 2016

The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and i... more The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and it is this paper’s main object of study. Forecasting freight flows can be a useful tool for the whole logistics chain. In this work, a complete methodology is presented in order to obtain the best model to predict freight congestion situations at ports. The prediction is modeled as a classification problem and different approaches are tested (k-Nearest Neighbors, Bayes classifier and Artificial Neural Networks). A panel of different experts (post–hoc methods of Friedman test) has been developed in order to select the best model. The proposed methodology is applied in the Strait of Gibraltar’s logistics hub with a study case being undertaken in Port of Algeciras Bay. The results obtained reveal the efficiency of the presented models that can be applied to improve daily operations planning.

Research paper thumbnail of Logistic Management Optimization in the Ports

Journal of Business and Economics, 2015

The aim of this paper is to show the results obtained and the methodology used to achieve better ... more The aim of this paper is to show the results obtained and the methodology used to achieve better logistic organization of Mediterranean ports and logistics areas. Recently, we introduced a new methodology in the ports of Naples and Algeciras Bay in order to improve their logistics processes. This methodology was implemented as a part of the INTE-TRANSIT project, cofinanced by the MED Program with the aim to improve logistic processes and increase technological integration in Mediterranean ports. The methodology used in the ports of Naples and Algeciras Bay consists of four parts, two of which include a tool called VSM. VSM stands for "Value Stream Mapping", a tool to analyze and understand the flow of material and information that allow a deep knowledge of a process and identify the wastes. "Waste" in this context, is defined as something anything that adds cost to a product or service without adding value. The use of this methodology has allowed us to identify in detail the problems in both the information flow and material flow. It was detected that the acquisition of new technologies could facilitate and expedite the process of receiving, the location, the internal movements and the vessel loading.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of Operations in maritime Container Terminals

Journal of Maritime Research, Jan 28, 2014

The objective of this article is to present a general analysis of the various different elements ... more The objective of this article is to present a general analysis of the various different elements that comprise the operating chain or process for working a containercarrier vessel, defining the operating ratios involved and the relationships between them; similarly, the parameters that influence the operational process are indicated. This paper includes an approach to the problem focused on a casestudy: the Spanish terminals. We have carried out a quantitative analysis that allows comparative strategies to be established and applied to practical cases. The correct planning and execution of operations on a container-carrier vessel is a decisive element in the strategy of a Terminal. Numerous factors come into play and some of these, but only some, can be controlled. Experience and knowledge of the problems that can arise is fundamental when attempting to deal with these operations. We put aside, for the time being, the initiatives a terminal can take to optimize yard distribution, as well as reducing the impact of berthing problems. We consider the different measures of the various kinds of production, and the difficulties that could be encountered in trying to maximize productivity. Finally, we offer some suggestions regarding what is being done presently at the terminals to achieve their operating targets.

Research paper thumbnail of The Economic Impact of Container Traffic

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of Container Traffic from an Economic Perspective: Analysis, Trends and Prospects

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of The Port of Algeciras Bay: Physical and Logistic Infrastructure in the Context of the Mediterranean Ports

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Ro-Ro Traffic: A Case Study in the Strait of Gibraltar

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2014

The objective of this article is to predict volumes of Ro-Ro (Roll-on, Roll-off) freight in order... more The objective of this article is to predict volumes of Ro-Ro (Roll-on, Roll-off) freight in order to apply this prediction as a decision making tool in logistics planning and port organization. This tool can help to improve supply chain performance in a Ro-Ro terminal. Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were the forecasting methods used in this study. A resampling procedure was applied in order to find out the best model from a statistical point of view using multiple comparison methods. The results have been very promising (R=0.9157; d=0.9546; MSE=0.0195

Research paper thumbnail of Simulating the Landside Congestion in a Container Terminal. The Experience of the Port of Naples (Italy)

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2014

Simulating the landside congestion in a container terminal. The experience of the port of Naples ... more Simulating the landside congestion in a container terminal. The experience of the port of Naples (Italy)

Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting of short-term flow freight congestion: A study case of Algeciras Bay Port (Spain)

The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and i... more The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and it is this paper’s main object of study.
Forecasting freight flows can be a useful tool for the whole logistics chain. In this work, a complete methodology is presented in order to
obtain the best model to predict freight congestion situations at ports. The prediction is modeled as a classification problem and different
approaches are tested (k-Nearest Neighbors, Bayes classifier and Artificial Neural Networks). A panel of different experts (post–hoc
methods of Friedman test) has been developed in order to select the best model. The proposed methodology is applied in the Strait of
Gibraltar’s logistics hub with a study case being undertaken in Port of Algeciras Bay. The results obtained reveal the efficiency of the
presented models that can be applied to improve daily operations planning.

Research paper thumbnail of Hybrid Approaches of Support Vector Regression and SARIMA Models to Forecast the Inspections Volume

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2014

The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the numbe... more The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the number, the reliability and the security of inspections at the European borders. In this context of high security, this work applies a two-step procedure based on the hybridization of SARIMA and Support Vector Regression to forecast the inspection volume at the Border Inspection Post of Port of Algeciras Bay. Three hybrid approaches are proposed and two prediction horizons are evaluated. Based on several performance indexes to assess the goodness-of-fit of the models, the hybrid approaches perform better than the SARIMA and SVR models used separately. Hence, the study shows that the hybrid methodology improves the single methods. The experimental results can provide relevant information for resource planning and may become a decision-making tool in the inspection process of other European BIPs.

Research paper thumbnail of Bunkering competition and competitiveness at the ports of the Gibraltar Strait

Journal of Transport Geography, 2011

This article provides an exploratory analysis from the perspective of the port operators of the f... more This article provides an exploratory analysis from the perspective of the port operators of the factors that determine the competitiveness of fuel supply at the ports of the Gibraltar Strait (Bay of Algeciras, Gibraltar and Ceuta). The methodology is based on interviews and questionnaires focused on public and private institutions involved in the port services. The results reveal that fuel prices and geographical advantage are the two main factors seen by Gibraltar Strait port operators as influencing shipping company choice of bunkering port. In order of importance, other identified factors related to the cost and quality of services, including port tariffs, supply waiting time, service rates, simplicity of crew changing, presence of restrictive environmental regulations and customs strictness.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of the Global and Technical Efficiencies of Major Spanish Container Ports

International Journal of Transport Economics, 2015

This study analyses the changes in the efficiency of the 13 Spanish ports with the most container... more This study analyses the changes in the efficiency of the 13 Spanish ports with the most container traffic during the period 2008-2011. The main input and output variables analyzed are those used in many previous studies of port efficiency, and the methodology employed is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Changes in efficiency are studied for each year of the period 2008-2011 using Constant Return to Scale (CRS/CCR) and Variable Return to Scale (VRS/BCC) DEA models returns to scale. The results suggest that the ports of Algeciras Bay and Seville are the most efficient in the Spanish port system, ahead of important ports such as Barcelona and Valencia. Moreover, high levels of technical efficiency are associated with transshipment as opposed to gateway ports.

Research paper thumbnail of Efficiency Evolution of Largest Iberian Peninsula Container Ports: An Application of Malmquist Productivity Index

International Journal of Transport Economics, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Clasificación de los puertos españoles mediante análisis cluster

Informes de la Construcción, 2019

El sistema portuario español es sumamente complejo y admite el estudio desde numerosos puntos de ... more El sistema portuario español es sumamente complejo y admite el estudio desde numerosos puntos de vista En este artículo se estudian los puertos según su actividad y sus características externas para la clasificación en agrupaciones. Para ello se han utilizado indicadores que reflejan la actividad portuaria y se han aplicado sobre las 28 Autoridades Portuarias españolas. Con estos indicadores se ha aplicado una metodología específica para a través del análisis de conglomerados (cluster) para averiguar cuáles son los agrupamientos que se producen. El análisis cluster se complementa con otros análisis estadísticos: análisis multivariante y componentes principales, para conocer qué indicadores son los más relevantes en las agrupaciones y cómo se comportan. Los resultados finales obtenidos muestran que este tipo de estudios estadísticos son apropiados para realizarse en el entorno portuario y que los agrupamientos reflejan correctamente la realidad portuaria.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic and environmental competitiveness of container shipping on alternative maritime routes in the Asia-Europe trade flow

Maritime Transport Research

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of Bootstrapped Operating Efficiency in Container Ports. A Case Study in Spain and Portugal

INCREaSE 2019, 2019

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the main Spanish and Portuguese container... more The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the main Spanish and Portuguese containers ports observing if they are operating below their production capabilities during the period between 2008–2017. To achieve this, one possible method is to calculate DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) efficiency, the scale efficiency targets, and in order to consider the variability across different samples a bootstrap scheme has been applied.

Research paper thumbnail of State-owned Spanish Port System oversizing: an analysis of maximum operational capacity

Maritime Policy & Management, 2017

The State-owned Spanish Port System (SPS) includes 46 ports for general use that are managed by t... more The State-owned Spanish Port System (SPS) includes 46 ports for general use that are managed by the 28 port authorities distributed along the 8000 km of Spanish coast. SPS has not grown at a rate comparable to that of international maritime transportation. In our paper, we start from the hypothesis of a port system that appears to be oversized, subsidized, with regard to container traffic. Quantifying the maximum operational capacity of the different container terminals along the Spanish coast and their mooring capacities will provide the available dimensions for this type of traffic. In a second step, we will analyse whether SPS are sufficient (according to the perspective of international standards) to meet Spain's needs, which is related to Spain's strategic geographic location and its need to move containerized cargo for the domestic market. The paper concludes SPS has an oversized that limits competitiveness, which is indicated by the average transshipment ratio of approximately 50% and an average unweighted idle ratio of port facilities designed for container traffic of over 60% in the eight main ports.

Research paper thumbnail of Efficient goods inspection demand at ports: a comparative forecasting approach

International Transactions in Operational Research, 2017

A high number of freight inspections carried out at Border Inspection Posts (BIPs) of ports could... more A high number of freight inspections carried out at Border Inspection Posts (BIPs) of ports could lead to significant time delays and congestion problems within the port system, decreasing the efficiency of the port. Therefore, this work is focused on achieving the most accurate prediction of the daily number of goods subject to inspection at BIPs. Five prediction methods were used for this aim: multiple linear regression, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, artificial neural networks, and support vector regression models. Several nonlinear tests were used to study the nature of the time series and the best method was obtained by the comparison of the prediction results based on performance indexes that provide the goodness-of-fit. The result of this study may become a supporting tool for the prediction of the number of goods subject to inspection in BIPs of other international seaports or airports.

Research paper thumbnail of Short-term forecasting of intermodal freight using ANNs and SVR: Case of the Port of Algeciras Bay

Libro de Actas CIT2016. XII Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte, 2016

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Intern... more This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Research paper thumbnail of A two-stage forecasting approach for short-term intermodal freight prediction

International Transactions in Operational Research, 2016

The forecasting of the freight transportation, especially the short-term case, is an important to... more The forecasting of the freight transportation, especially the short-term case, is an important topic in the daily supply chain management. Intermodal freight transportation is subject to multiple complex calendar effects arising in the port environment. The use of prediction methods provides information that may be helpful as a decision-making tool in the management and planning of operations processes in ports. This work addresses the forecasting problem on a daily basis by a novel two-stage scheme combination to offer reliable predictions of fresh freight weight on Ro-Ro (roll-on/roll-off) transport for 7 and 14 days ahead. The study compares daily forecasting with a weekly forecasting approach. The applies database preprocessing and Bayesian regularization neural networks (BRNN) in Stage I. In Stage II, an ensemble framework of the best BRNN models is used to enhance the Stage I forecasting. The results show that the models assessed are a promising tool to predict freight time series for Ro-Ro transport.

Research paper thumbnail of Forecasting of short-term flow freight congestion: A study case of Algeciras Bay Port (Spain)

DYNA, 2016

The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and i... more The prediction of freight congestion (cargo peaks) is an important tool for decision making and it is this paper’s main object of study. Forecasting freight flows can be a useful tool for the whole logistics chain. In this work, a complete methodology is presented in order to obtain the best model to predict freight congestion situations at ports. The prediction is modeled as a classification problem and different approaches are tested (k-Nearest Neighbors, Bayes classifier and Artificial Neural Networks). A panel of different experts (post–hoc methods of Friedman test) has been developed in order to select the best model. The proposed methodology is applied in the Strait of Gibraltar’s logistics hub with a study case being undertaken in Port of Algeciras Bay. The results obtained reveal the efficiency of the presented models that can be applied to improve daily operations planning.

Research paper thumbnail of Logistic Management Optimization in the Ports

Journal of Business and Economics, 2015

The aim of this paper is to show the results obtained and the methodology used to achieve better ... more The aim of this paper is to show the results obtained and the methodology used to achieve better logistic organization of Mediterranean ports and logistics areas. Recently, we introduced a new methodology in the ports of Naples and Algeciras Bay in order to improve their logistics processes. This methodology was implemented as a part of the INTE-TRANSIT project, cofinanced by the MED Program with the aim to improve logistic processes and increase technological integration in Mediterranean ports. The methodology used in the ports of Naples and Algeciras Bay consists of four parts, two of which include a tool called VSM. VSM stands for "Value Stream Mapping", a tool to analyze and understand the flow of material and information that allow a deep knowledge of a process and identify the wastes. "Waste" in this context, is defined as something anything that adds cost to a product or service without adding value. The use of this methodology has allowed us to identify in detail the problems in both the information flow and material flow. It was detected that the acquisition of new technologies could facilitate and expedite the process of receiving, the location, the internal movements and the vessel loading.

Research paper thumbnail of Optimization of Operations in maritime Container Terminals

Journal of Maritime Research, Jan 28, 2014

The objective of this article is to present a general analysis of the various different elements ... more The objective of this article is to present a general analysis of the various different elements that comprise the operating chain or process for working a containercarrier vessel, defining the operating ratios involved and the relationships between them; similarly, the parameters that influence the operational process are indicated. This paper includes an approach to the problem focused on a casestudy: the Spanish terminals. We have carried out a quantitative analysis that allows comparative strategies to be established and applied to practical cases. The correct planning and execution of operations on a container-carrier vessel is a decisive element in the strategy of a Terminal. Numerous factors come into play and some of these, but only some, can be controlled. Experience and knowledge of the problems that can arise is fundamental when attempting to deal with these operations. We put aside, for the time being, the initiatives a terminal can take to optimize yard distribution, as well as reducing the impact of berthing problems. We consider the different measures of the various kinds of production, and the difficulties that could be encountered in trying to maximize productivity. Finally, we offer some suggestions regarding what is being done presently at the terminals to achieve their operating targets.

Research paper thumbnail of The Economic Impact of Container Traffic

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of Container Traffic from an Economic Perspective: Analysis, Trends and Prospects

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of The Port of Algeciras Bay: Physical and Logistic Infrastructure in the Context of the Mediterranean Ports

Economic Impact of the Container Traffic at the Port of Algeciras Bay

Research paper thumbnail of A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Ro-Ro Traffic: A Case Study in the Strait of Gibraltar

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2014

The objective of this article is to predict volumes of Ro-Ro (Roll-on, Roll-off) freight in order... more The objective of this article is to predict volumes of Ro-Ro (Roll-on, Roll-off) freight in order to apply this prediction as a decision making tool in logistics planning and port organization. This tool can help to improve supply chain performance in a Ro-Ro terminal. Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were the forecasting methods used in this study. A resampling procedure was applied in order to find out the best model from a statistical point of view using multiple comparison methods. The results have been very promising (R=0.9157; d=0.9546; MSE=0.0195

Research paper thumbnail of Simulating the Landside Congestion in a Container Terminal. The Experience of the Port of Naples (Italy)

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2014

Simulating the landside congestion in a container terminal. The experience of the port of Naples ... more Simulating the landside congestion in a container terminal. The experience of the port of Naples (Italy)

Research paper thumbnail of Hybrid Approaches of Support Vector Regression and SARIMA Models to Forecast the Inspections Volume

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2014

The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the numbe... more The constant growth of air and maritime traffic of goods creates the need of increasing the number, the reliability and the security of inspections at the European borders. In this context of high security, this work applies a two-step procedure based on the hybridization of SARIMA and Support Vector Regression to forecast the inspection volume at the Border Inspection Post of Port of Algeciras Bay. Three hybrid approaches are proposed and two prediction horizons are evaluated. Based on several performance indexes to assess the goodness-of-fit of the models, the hybrid approaches perform better than the SARIMA and SVR models used separately. Hence, the study shows that the hybrid methodology improves the single methods. The experimental results can provide relevant information for resource planning and may become a decision-making tool in the inspection process of other European BIPs.