Marc Nerlove - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Marc Nerlove
Journal of Public Economics, Mar 1, 1993
Household and Economy. Welfare Economics of Endogenous Fertility
The Economic Journal, Jun 1, 1988
Economic issues in population policy
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1983
The implications of endogenous determination of fertility for certain population policy issues ar... more The implications of endogenous determination of fertility for certain population policy issues are considered. By endogenous fertility the authors mean that "parents determine the number of children they have and what they bequeath to them in the form of physical or human capital in response to the economic constraints they face and in such a way as to maximize their own satisfaction." The effects on population growth of the various assumptions tested are considered. (EXCERPT)
Liu, Ta-Chung (1914–1975)
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 1987
Research in the history of economic thought and methodology, Aug 10, 2017
The basic ideas of Cournot and those who came after him are related to the recent work of Nash an... more The basic ideas of Cournot and those who came after him are related to the recent work of Nash and his notion of an "equilibrium point." It is shown that the Nash equilibrium point incorporates the main contribution of Cournot to the solution of the duopoly problem and that the major criticism that may be made against the Cournot equilibrium may also be made against the Nash equilibrium. It is then indicated to what use this weakness might be put in the study of bargaining.
Endogenous Fertility and the Environment: A Parable of Firewood
Oxford University Press eBooks, Nov 9, 2000
This chapter discusses a model which examines interactions between population growth and the envi... more This chapter discusses a model which examines interactions between population growth and the environment. In this model, various assumptions are made such as that fertility is endogenous; parents are not altruistic and have children only because of utility; environmental deterioration does not affect population (i.e., no ‘Malthusian’ mortality); time is measured in generations; and population pressure adversely affects the environment. The model gives a system of two non-linear difference equations. The main conclusion is that in the absence of parental altruism and ‘Malthusian’ mortality, the relation between population and environment is inherently unstable when fertility is endogenous. Thus, when parents are concerned only about the utility (net private benefits) and environmental resources are not priced (free), parents may choose the number of children which is optimal from their point of view but which will ultimately lead to environmental degradation.
Reminiscences of “Returns to Scale in Electricity Supply”
Handbook of Production Economics
Von Thünen's Model of the Dual Economy
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 1989
Time Series Analysis
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008
measuring our order of preference among different possible populations does not in fact obey the ... more measuring our order of preference among different possible populations does not in fact obey the laws of probability. To distinguish it from probability, I have used the term 'Likelihood' to designate this quantity; since both the words 'likelihood' and 'probability' are loosely used in common speech to cover both kinds of relationship." R. A. Fisher, Statistical Methods for Research Workers, 1925. "What we can find from a sample is the likelihood of any particular value of ρ [a parameter], if we define the likelihood as a quantity proportional to the probability that, from a particular population having that particular value of ρ, a sample having the observed value r [a statistic] should be obtained. So defined, probability and likelihood are quantities of an entirely different nature." R. A. Fisher, "On the 'Probable Error' of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample," Metron, 1:3-32, 1921. 5 This is quite reminiscent of the generation of all sorts of pseudo random numbers in a digital computer from numbers uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1). See Section 1 on random number generation in Chapter 3, "Statistical Fantasies: Monte Carlo and Bootstrapping," below. Uniformly distributed random numbers may be the "building blocks" of more general random variables (RVs), but they are not prior in any metaphysical sense. 6 Here's what Harold Jeffreys (1939, 1961, pp. 117-118) has to say: 7 Noting that the binomial, or multinomial, distribution was used in the study of games of chance, Stigler (1986, p. 91) remarks: "For all its attractive properties, the binomial distribution has the unfortunate feature that the distribution of the difference between an empirical relative frequency and the unknown true proportion depends upon the unknown true proportion. Thus binomial 'error' distributions are not fixed; they cannot be taken as known (even by hypothesis) unless the true proportion is taken as known. [This is true] even for large numbers of trials ... [so a limiting argument cannot be used]" 8 In his commentary on Bernoulli's memoir, Euler correctly points out that the maximum likelihood principle is quite arbitrary in the sense that there is no reason to believe that the DGP of the observations is that which gives them the greatest probability, which is, of course, why one should in general look at the whole of the likelihood function. (Fortunately, in those days the referee's comments were merely appended to the published paper instead of being sent to the author with a letter of rejection!)
Scientific Papers of Tjalling C. Koopmans
Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute, 1971
Tjalling C. Koopmans was awarded the 1975 Nobel Prize for his work on the theory of optimal utili... more Tjalling C. Koopmans was awarded the 1975 Nobel Prize for his work on the theory of optimal utilization of resources. This collection represents Koopmans' work over the past 15 years on such topics as the representation of preference orderings, the computation of an optimal stationary capital stock, the comparison of economic systems, optimal growth theory, and models of energy and other exhaustible resources.Contents: Note on a Social System Composed of Hierarchies with Overlapping Personnel; Maximizing Stationary Utility in a Constant Technology; On the Description and Comparison of Economic Systems; Representation of Preference Orderings with Independent Components of Consumption; Representation of Preference Orderings over Time; Some Observations on 'Optimal' Economic Growth and Exhaustible Resources; On the Definition and Computation of a Capital Stock Invariant under Optimization; Is the Theory of Competitive Equilibrium With It? Proof for a Case where Discounting Advances the Doomsday; Concepts of Optimality and Their Uses; Examples of Production Relations Based on Microdata; Economics Among the Sciences; Alternative Futures With or Without Constraints on the Energy Technology Mix; The Transition from Exhaustible to Renewable or Inexhaustible Resources; Additively Decomposed Quasiconvex Functions.Tjalling C. Koopmans was Alfred Cowles Professor Emeritus in Economics, Yale University.
Professor Suits on Automobile Demand
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1960
On Automobile Demand: A Reply
Journal of Marketing, 1958
metric investigations of demand for perishable commodities have long been based on what Professor... more metric investigations of demand for perishable commodities have long been based on what Professor Hans Brems chooses to call "Marshallian static analysis."' These investigations have been highly successful for perishable commodities and not quite so successful for durable goods. What is needed is a dynamic theory of demand. In his attempt to find one, it seems that Brems has disregarded the implications of econometric investigations of demand for perishable commodities. An adequate dynamic theor) of demand can be built on Marshallian analysis. The main advantages of such a formulation2 is that it provides a link between the theory of demand for durables and the theory of demand for perishable commodities. If we follow Brems, we have two theories of demand. One, however, is not only sufficient, but preferable. Stocks and numbers. No question has been raised about Brems' idea that ". . . when a new-car buyer trades in his used car, the latter will replace somebody's still older car which in turn will replace somebody else's still older car, until finally a jalopy is junked." However, this "bumping" has no particular bearing on the questionable procedure which Brems followed in his article; in defining an economically relevant stock variable, Brems added together numbers of cars of different ages. While it is true that four apples plus six pears make ten pieces
A Note on Long-Run Automobile Demand
Journal of Marketing, 1957
Autoregressive and Moving-Average Time-Series Processes
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Characterization of time series by means of autoregressive (AR) or moving-average (MA) processes ... more Characterization of time series by means of autoregressive (AR) or moving-average (MA) processes or combined autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes was suggested, more or less simultaneously, by the Russian statistician and economist, E. Slutsky (1927), and the British statistician G.U. Yule (1921, 1926, 1927). Slutsky and Yule observed that if we begin with a series of purely random numbers and then take sums or differences, weighted or unweighted, of such numbers, the new series so produced has many of the apparent cyclic properties that are thought to characterize economic and other time series. Such sums or differences of purely random numbers are the basis for ARMA models of the processes by which many kinds of economic time series are assumed to be generated, and thus form the basis for recent suggestions for analysis, forecasting and control (e.g. Box and Jenkins, 1970).
Revista Española de Cirugía Ortopédica y Traumatología, 2011
Resumen La enfermedad de Perthes es una necrosis isquémica idiopática de la epífisis femoral prox... more Resumen La enfermedad de Perthes es una necrosis isquémica idiopática de la epífisis femoral proximal en niños. La prueba diagnóstica más utilizada es la radiografía simple, que además permite clasificar la enfermedad en función de su evolución y de su extensión. Aunque su historia natural, autolimitada en el tiempo, es generalmente benigna, existen una serie de factores asociados a un pronóstico menos favorable. Estos factores son la edad, la extensión de la enfermedad y determinados signos radiológicos, y definen a aquellos pacientes que más se van a beneficiar del tratamiento. La contención de la cabeza femoral en el acetábulo para permitir un óptimo remodelado de la misma es el objetivo del tratamiento que actualmente se basa en métodos quirúrgicos como las osteotomías femorales o acetabulares. Los métodos de contención ortopédicos como las ortesis de abducción no han demostrado obtener mejores resultados.
Issues in Contemporary Economics
Price flexibility, inventory behavior, and production responses
Essays in honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume II
Tamaño de Población Socialmente Óptimo
The question of optimal population size is investigated for three alternative social welfare func... more The question of optimal population size is investigated for three alternative social welfare functions: (1) the total utility of the present and future generations (Benthamite), (2) the average utility (Millian), and (3) the individual utility of a member
Potential Market Failures
Household and Economy, 1987
This chapter discusses several potential sources of externalities and market failure in relation ... more This chapter discusses several potential sources of externalities and market failure in relation to population size and intergenerational allocation of resources. After scrutiny, some of these potential sources of market failure prove to be nonexistent. The chapter focuses on three potential causes of market failure. The first source is that if there are pure public goods such as national defense, basic research, and weather forecasts, the per capita costs of providing these goods fall as population size increases. As everyone enjoys these goods at no additional cost, it is possible that there exists a market failure in relation to population size resulting in the inefficiency of laissez-faire. The second source is that a fixed resource, such as land, which must be combined with labor to produce goods for consumption, could lead to Malthusian diminishing returns to larger population size. This situation suggests a potential source of external diseconomies and market failure in relation to population size. the third source is that there is the problem associated with the infinity of generations in an overlapping generation model. In his seminal paper, Samuelson showed that even without the standard sources of market failure, the competitive equilibrium may fail to achieve Pareto efficiency. When fertility is endogenous, these potential sources of market failure do not exist: laissez-faire policy leads individual decision makers to a Pareto-optimal allocation from their point of view.
Journal of Public Economics, Mar 1, 1993
Household and Economy. Welfare Economics of Endogenous Fertility
The Economic Journal, Jun 1, 1988
Economic issues in population policy
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1983
The implications of endogenous determination of fertility for certain population policy issues ar... more The implications of endogenous determination of fertility for certain population policy issues are considered. By endogenous fertility the authors mean that "parents determine the number of children they have and what they bequeath to them in the form of physical or human capital in response to the economic constraints they face and in such a way as to maximize their own satisfaction." The effects on population growth of the various assumptions tested are considered. (EXCERPT)
Liu, Ta-Chung (1914–1975)
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 1987
Research in the history of economic thought and methodology, Aug 10, 2017
The basic ideas of Cournot and those who came after him are related to the recent work of Nash an... more The basic ideas of Cournot and those who came after him are related to the recent work of Nash and his notion of an "equilibrium point." It is shown that the Nash equilibrium point incorporates the main contribution of Cournot to the solution of the duopoly problem and that the major criticism that may be made against the Cournot equilibrium may also be made against the Nash equilibrium. It is then indicated to what use this weakness might be put in the study of bargaining.
Endogenous Fertility and the Environment: A Parable of Firewood
Oxford University Press eBooks, Nov 9, 2000
This chapter discusses a model which examines interactions between population growth and the envi... more This chapter discusses a model which examines interactions between population growth and the environment. In this model, various assumptions are made such as that fertility is endogenous; parents are not altruistic and have children only because of utility; environmental deterioration does not affect population (i.e., no ‘Malthusian’ mortality); time is measured in generations; and population pressure adversely affects the environment. The model gives a system of two non-linear difference equations. The main conclusion is that in the absence of parental altruism and ‘Malthusian’ mortality, the relation between population and environment is inherently unstable when fertility is endogenous. Thus, when parents are concerned only about the utility (net private benefits) and environmental resources are not priced (free), parents may choose the number of children which is optimal from their point of view but which will ultimately lead to environmental degradation.
Reminiscences of “Returns to Scale in Electricity Supply”
Handbook of Production Economics
Von Thünen's Model of the Dual Economy
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 1989
Time Series Analysis
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008
measuring our order of preference among different possible populations does not in fact obey the ... more measuring our order of preference among different possible populations does not in fact obey the laws of probability. To distinguish it from probability, I have used the term 'Likelihood' to designate this quantity; since both the words 'likelihood' and 'probability' are loosely used in common speech to cover both kinds of relationship." R. A. Fisher, Statistical Methods for Research Workers, 1925. "What we can find from a sample is the likelihood of any particular value of ρ [a parameter], if we define the likelihood as a quantity proportional to the probability that, from a particular population having that particular value of ρ, a sample having the observed value r [a statistic] should be obtained. So defined, probability and likelihood are quantities of an entirely different nature." R. A. Fisher, "On the 'Probable Error' of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample," Metron, 1:3-32, 1921. 5 This is quite reminiscent of the generation of all sorts of pseudo random numbers in a digital computer from numbers uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1). See Section 1 on random number generation in Chapter 3, "Statistical Fantasies: Monte Carlo and Bootstrapping," below. Uniformly distributed random numbers may be the "building blocks" of more general random variables (RVs), but they are not prior in any metaphysical sense. 6 Here's what Harold Jeffreys (1939, 1961, pp. 117-118) has to say: 7 Noting that the binomial, or multinomial, distribution was used in the study of games of chance, Stigler (1986, p. 91) remarks: "For all its attractive properties, the binomial distribution has the unfortunate feature that the distribution of the difference between an empirical relative frequency and the unknown true proportion depends upon the unknown true proportion. Thus binomial 'error' distributions are not fixed; they cannot be taken as known (even by hypothesis) unless the true proportion is taken as known. [This is true] even for large numbers of trials ... [so a limiting argument cannot be used]" 8 In his commentary on Bernoulli's memoir, Euler correctly points out that the maximum likelihood principle is quite arbitrary in the sense that there is no reason to believe that the DGP of the observations is that which gives them the greatest probability, which is, of course, why one should in general look at the whole of the likelihood function. (Fortunately, in those days the referee's comments were merely appended to the published paper instead of being sent to the author with a letter of rejection!)
Scientific Papers of Tjalling C. Koopmans
Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute, 1971
Tjalling C. Koopmans was awarded the 1975 Nobel Prize for his work on the theory of optimal utili... more Tjalling C. Koopmans was awarded the 1975 Nobel Prize for his work on the theory of optimal utilization of resources. This collection represents Koopmans' work over the past 15 years on such topics as the representation of preference orderings, the computation of an optimal stationary capital stock, the comparison of economic systems, optimal growth theory, and models of energy and other exhaustible resources.Contents: Note on a Social System Composed of Hierarchies with Overlapping Personnel; Maximizing Stationary Utility in a Constant Technology; On the Description and Comparison of Economic Systems; Representation of Preference Orderings with Independent Components of Consumption; Representation of Preference Orderings over Time; Some Observations on 'Optimal' Economic Growth and Exhaustible Resources; On the Definition and Computation of a Capital Stock Invariant under Optimization; Is the Theory of Competitive Equilibrium With It? Proof for a Case where Discounting Advances the Doomsday; Concepts of Optimality and Their Uses; Examples of Production Relations Based on Microdata; Economics Among the Sciences; Alternative Futures With or Without Constraints on the Energy Technology Mix; The Transition from Exhaustible to Renewable or Inexhaustible Resources; Additively Decomposed Quasiconvex Functions.Tjalling C. Koopmans was Alfred Cowles Professor Emeritus in Economics, Yale University.
Professor Suits on Automobile Demand
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1960
On Automobile Demand: A Reply
Journal of Marketing, 1958
metric investigations of demand for perishable commodities have long been based on what Professor... more metric investigations of demand for perishable commodities have long been based on what Professor Hans Brems chooses to call "Marshallian static analysis."' These investigations have been highly successful for perishable commodities and not quite so successful for durable goods. What is needed is a dynamic theory of demand. In his attempt to find one, it seems that Brems has disregarded the implications of econometric investigations of demand for perishable commodities. An adequate dynamic theor) of demand can be built on Marshallian analysis. The main advantages of such a formulation2 is that it provides a link between the theory of demand for durables and the theory of demand for perishable commodities. If we follow Brems, we have two theories of demand. One, however, is not only sufficient, but preferable. Stocks and numbers. No question has been raised about Brems' idea that ". . . when a new-car buyer trades in his used car, the latter will replace somebody's still older car which in turn will replace somebody else's still older car, until finally a jalopy is junked." However, this "bumping" has no particular bearing on the questionable procedure which Brems followed in his article; in defining an economically relevant stock variable, Brems added together numbers of cars of different ages. While it is true that four apples plus six pears make ten pieces
A Note on Long-Run Automobile Demand
Journal of Marketing, 1957
Autoregressive and Moving-Average Time-Series Processes
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Characterization of time series by means of autoregressive (AR) or moving-average (MA) processes ... more Characterization of time series by means of autoregressive (AR) or moving-average (MA) processes or combined autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes was suggested, more or less simultaneously, by the Russian statistician and economist, E. Slutsky (1927), and the British statistician G.U. Yule (1921, 1926, 1927). Slutsky and Yule observed that if we begin with a series of purely random numbers and then take sums or differences, weighted or unweighted, of such numbers, the new series so produced has many of the apparent cyclic properties that are thought to characterize economic and other time series. Such sums or differences of purely random numbers are the basis for ARMA models of the processes by which many kinds of economic time series are assumed to be generated, and thus form the basis for recent suggestions for analysis, forecasting and control (e.g. Box and Jenkins, 1970).
Revista Española de Cirugía Ortopédica y Traumatología, 2011
Resumen La enfermedad de Perthes es una necrosis isquémica idiopática de la epífisis femoral prox... more Resumen La enfermedad de Perthes es una necrosis isquémica idiopática de la epífisis femoral proximal en niños. La prueba diagnóstica más utilizada es la radiografía simple, que además permite clasificar la enfermedad en función de su evolución y de su extensión. Aunque su historia natural, autolimitada en el tiempo, es generalmente benigna, existen una serie de factores asociados a un pronóstico menos favorable. Estos factores son la edad, la extensión de la enfermedad y determinados signos radiológicos, y definen a aquellos pacientes que más se van a beneficiar del tratamiento. La contención de la cabeza femoral en el acetábulo para permitir un óptimo remodelado de la misma es el objetivo del tratamiento que actualmente se basa en métodos quirúrgicos como las osteotomías femorales o acetabulares. Los métodos de contención ortopédicos como las ortesis de abducción no han demostrado obtener mejores resultados.
Issues in Contemporary Economics
Price flexibility, inventory behavior, and production responses
Essays in honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume II
Tamaño de Población Socialmente Óptimo
The question of optimal population size is investigated for three alternative social welfare func... more The question of optimal population size is investigated for three alternative social welfare functions: (1) the total utility of the present and future generations (Benthamite), (2) the average utility (Millian), and (3) the individual utility of a member
Potential Market Failures
Household and Economy, 1987
This chapter discusses several potential sources of externalities and market failure in relation ... more This chapter discusses several potential sources of externalities and market failure in relation to population size and intergenerational allocation of resources. After scrutiny, some of these potential sources of market failure prove to be nonexistent. The chapter focuses on three potential causes of market failure. The first source is that if there are pure public goods such as national defense, basic research, and weather forecasts, the per capita costs of providing these goods fall as population size increases. As everyone enjoys these goods at no additional cost, it is possible that there exists a market failure in relation to population size resulting in the inefficiency of laissez-faire. The second source is that a fixed resource, such as land, which must be combined with labor to produce goods for consumption, could lead to Malthusian diminishing returns to larger population size. This situation suggests a potential source of external diseconomies and market failure in relation to population size. the third source is that there is the problem associated with the infinity of generations in an overlapping generation model. In his seminal paper, Samuelson showed that even without the standard sources of market failure, the competitive equilibrium may fail to achieve Pareto efficiency. When fertility is endogenous, these potential sources of market failure do not exist: laissez-faire policy leads individual decision makers to a Pareto-optimal allocation from their point of view.