Martin Banse - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Martin Banse
Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Jun 18, 2021
Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and st... more Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been applied in two projects to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, feedbacks to outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions.
Two years ago LEI and Wageningen University carried out a study for the European Commission DG En... more Two years ago LEI and Wageningen University carried out a study for the European Commission DG Enterprise and Industry on the competitiveness of the European Food Industry. In November 2007 that study played an important role in a conference on this issue in Brussels, where the European Commission Vice-President announced the installation of a High Level Group for the Food Industry. Recently a follow-up study has been commissioned to the same project team, to study a number of issues in more detail for the dairy industry as a representative sector in the food industry. One of the topics of this study was the the competitiveness of the dairy sector. This background report presents the results of that study. They will be integrated with other topics in a final report published by the European Commission. Jo Wijnands, LEI Wageningen UR, developed the methodology of this part of the research. Students Agnieska Batowska and Kedir Nesha Turi carried out detailed research on innovation and business dynamics, under the supervision of Jo Wijnands and Koos Gardebroek (Wageningen University). The report was written by Jo Wijnands, Gemma Tacken and Krijn Poppe. We thank DG Enterprise and Industry for their support in this study. We hope and expect that the results will be useful in the discussions of the High Level Group and that they are inspirational for future scientific work on this issue.
Die Verantwortung für die Inhalte liegt bei den jeweiligen Verfassern bzw. Verfasserinnen.
Landbauforschung = Applied agricultural and forestry research : journal of applied research in agriculture and forestry, 2016
This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a projection of medium-term developments of ... more This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a projection of medium-term developments of the agricultural sector in Germany, addressing agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, income and environmental aspects. The Baseline was established using and combining several models of the Thünen Modelling Network. In the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets, in combination with a weak Euro, contribute to the positive development of many agricultural product prices and farm incomes in Germany. The abolishment of the milk quota and rising milk prices are key factors in the projected increase of milk production to 37 million tons by 2025. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macroeconomic developments. Germany is the only member state without voluntary coupled support payments in the Baseline. The use of coupled payments in the other EU member states has only small negative effects on Germany. Reduction of ammonia emissions and high regional nitrogen soil surpluses remain among the key environmental challenges for agricultural policy.
German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Nov 1, 2011
This article analyses the impact of national, European and global biofuel targets on German food ... more This article analyses the impact of national, European and global biofuel targets on German food production and land allocation until 2020. The LEITAP General Equilibrium Model simulates the interaction of agricultural and energy markets in response to the envisaged expansion of the biofuel industry. First generation biofuels are integrated in the production structure of the petroleum sector. Second generation biofuels are modelled indirectly via estimated bottom-up reductions in land available for agriculture. Biofuel targets are set exogenously according to the current policy goals. The model recursively responds to increments in the biofuel mandates over three time intervals. Each country or region is required the meet its respective target and is allowed to subsidize biofuel consumption through a budget-neutral mechanism. Thanks to a nested land specification, changes in land use take into account variable elasticities of substitution among different cultivations. The results indicate that German production of biofuel crops substantially increases. In particular, oilseed output experiences a remarkable growth. Land allocation and land prices also change significantly. However, higher production does not suffice to satisfy the demand for biofuels feedstock, and imports of oilseeds and sugar rise considerably. Moreover, the model suggests that the growth in biofuel crop production among the remaining EU-26 countries is driven by the new Member States of the EU, and that the supply of EU biofuel crops also has to be enhanced by imports from abroad. Biofuel policies outside Europe show only little additional impact on German agriculture. The projected changes in food commodity prices are in line with the results of other CGE analyses, although prices rise to a lesser extent than projected in studies based on Partial Equilibrium Models.
Cleaner environmental systems, Mar 1, 2022
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework. Our results show that without mandatory blending or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector the targets of the EU Biofuel directive will not the reached in 2010. With mandatory blending the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European level. The additional demand from the energy sector might slow down or reverse the long term process of declining agricultural prices.
on land, food production, total GHG balance, trade and prices of agricultural commodities. We wil... more on land, food production, total GHG balance, trade and prices of agricultural commodities. We will also look at how these policies will influence biofuel production in regions where biofuel targets are voluntary, e.g., China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. By using the CGE-model LEITAP, coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE, cross-sectoral effects of biofuel mandates, geographically explicit land use, and environmental effects like GHG balances and carbon stocks will also be taken into account.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2009
The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process... more The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process by developing science-based responses to policy challenges that have both a socioeconomic as well as a scientific/technological dimension.
Negotiating market access in the wake of Brexit is a difficult matter. On the one hand, tariffs w... more Negotiating market access in the wake of Brexit is a difficult matter. On the one hand, tariffs with the EU and the rest of the world have to be renegotiated. On the other hand, existing Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) of the EU and third countries have to be adjusted in order to deal with this new situation. According to some professionals TRQs are likely to become a contentious issue in Britain's reestablishment of its status as an independent WTO member. While the UK is highly interconnected with the EU in almost all sectors the interdependency becomes especially apparent in the agricultural sector. Britain's self-sufficiency rate of food products amounts to only 62 % which is also mirrored in a highly negative trade deficit in this sector. Accordingly, the agricultural markets in the UK and the exporting countries are expected to be particularly affected by a Brexit. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, comprehensive quantitative effects of a tariff scenario are analysed with a focus on the EU agricultural sector. Therefore, we assume that the UK trades under the rules of the WTO by adopting MFN tariffs. It turns out that the impact of a Brexit on agricultural sectors in Europe is mainly negative with the most pronounced effects in the meat and livestock sectors. Second, we plan to dig deeper into the question how renegotiation of an existing TRQ, i.e. the Hilton quota for beef, affects the stakeholders involved. Therefore, we combine several quantitative simulation models. The tariff scenarios are simulated with the MAGNET model a global computable general equilibrium model which is based on the GTAP model and database. In order to grasp the complex implications of a renegotiated beef quota for UK and the EU-27 across agri-food markets we also employ AGMEMOD a partial equilibrium model to focus on beef and related markets and to provide a detailed price vector for FARMIS a farm-type model which allows for assertions on farm incomes and its distribution across farms.
Main scenarios-baseline, regional world and liberalisation 2.1. Total population development in %... more Main scenarios-baseline, regional world and liberalisation 2.1. Total population development in % per 5-year-period 2.2. Average natural population growth in thousands and in births-deaths-ratios (B/D) 1990-2003 2.3. Average net-migration in thousands per 5-year period 2.4. Typology of population change with regard to natural population change and net-migration 2.5. Classification of EU-25 regions to the degree of rurality, share of population and land area in the three rurality groups, 2003 2.6. Population in the EU, 2003 2.7. Percentage of private households made up of one person. Selected countries 2.8. Percentage of private households made up of more than four persons. Selected countries 2.9. Per capita supply (kg/year) of selected food categories, EU-15 average 2.10. Drivers that have influenced consumer food consumption in the period 1990-2005 2.11. Development of crop yields 2.12. EU decisions and world market prices 2.13. Exogenous drivers (level 1) and policy-related drivers (level 2) 3.1. Scenario assumptions 3.2. Policy Measures for the CAP 3.3. EU proposal in Doha Development Round 4.1. Schematic overview of the models: geographical and sectoral coverage 4.2. Nominal producer prices for agricultural and food products in the EU under different scenarios, Baseline in 2020 = 100 4.3. Production of crops used for biofuels production and consumption and imports of biofuels in EU-25 and EU-15, 2005 and 2020, in mio t 4.4. Farm income per activity group, EU-25 4.5. Agricultural income per country, 2020, relative to baseline in percent 4.6. Number of farms per sub-sector in 2003 and in 2020 in different scenarios (in mio farms) 4.7. Selected elements o nitrate balance (N). Percentage changes compared to baseline 4.8. Land use classification used in CLUEs 4.9. Specification of spatial policy scenario settings 4.10. Area changed in the whole of Europe per scenario 5.1. Baseline economic reaction types combined with OECD rurality types 5.2. Baseline reaction types in the EU-15 and EU-10 5.3. Strengths and weaknesses of the baseline reaction types 5.4. Average sectoral employment structure of baseline types in 2002 5.5. Economic status of the different regional types (2002/2004) 5.6. Average GDP/cap (pps) in the year 2002 for baseline types 5.7. Average unemployment rate in the year 2004 5.8. Share of region per demographic cluster and OECD type (%) 5.9. Number of inhabitants in OECD types 2000 to 2020 (in 1,000) 5.10. Typical demographic reactions revealing regional strengths or weaknesses 5.11. Total population clusters and OECD types 5.12. Combination of demographic development and economic baseline types 5.13. Socioeconomic key indicators (2002/2004) for the PT groups 5.14. Yearly change rate of arable crop farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.15. Yearly change rate of cattle farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.16. Yearly change rate of veg & perm farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.17. Agricultural land classes in 2000 5.18. Indicators characterising the regionalisation scenario 5.19. Averages of indicators per cluster (in % of UAA and livestock units/ha) 5.20. Characterisation of selected regionalisation clusters by farm structure (2004) Scenar 2020-Scenario study on agriculture and the rural world Acronyms ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific countries AMS Aggregate Measure of Support ARTS Actions on the integration of Rural Transport Services AWU Annual Work Unit BAP Biodiversity Action Plan BG Bulgaria BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy CAFE Clean Air For Europe cap Capita CAP Common Agricultural Policy (EU) CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis model
This paper analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of t... more This paper analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is twofold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.
The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consisten... more The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 20, 2016
Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models,... more Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.
This paper presents a simulation analysis for EU agricultural policy scenarios based on the combi... more This paper presents a simulation analysis for EU agricultural policy scenarios based on the combined use of a PE (partial equilibrium) and a GE (general equilibrium) model. In order to draw upon the strengths of both model types, the PE model ESIM (European Simulation Model) and the GE model LEITAP are combined to analyze four agricultural policy scenarios until the year 2020, including a baseline with moderate reforms as well as a full liberalization of EU agriculture. Compared to the pronounced developments of the agri-food sectors under the baseline, the impact of policy scenarios is rather small. Real agricultural prices in the EU fall by about 20% under the baseline, whereas the additional price decrease in case of full liberalization is only 14%. Agricultural supply in the EU is rather stable. Even under full liberalization, agricultural supply will not decline dramatically: it falls by about 10% if compared to the baseline. The contribution of the agricultural and food sector to the overall economy of the EU is rather limited. The full liberalization of the EU agricultural sector results in a decline of the shares of the agri-food sectors in total GDP by 0.11 percentage points and in total employment by 0.08 percentage points. The consideration of a decline of agricultural factor prices for capital and labor matters for the supply response, but not too much. Farm supply for the EU-25 is 0.5% higher when taking into account lower factor prices after liberalization.
Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Jun 18, 2021
Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and st... more Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been applied in two projects to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, feedbacks to outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions.
Two years ago LEI and Wageningen University carried out a study for the European Commission DG En... more Two years ago LEI and Wageningen University carried out a study for the European Commission DG Enterprise and Industry on the competitiveness of the European Food Industry. In November 2007 that study played an important role in a conference on this issue in Brussels, where the European Commission Vice-President announced the installation of a High Level Group for the Food Industry. Recently a follow-up study has been commissioned to the same project team, to study a number of issues in more detail for the dairy industry as a representative sector in the food industry. One of the topics of this study was the the competitiveness of the dairy sector. This background report presents the results of that study. They will be integrated with other topics in a final report published by the European Commission. Jo Wijnands, LEI Wageningen UR, developed the methodology of this part of the research. Students Agnieska Batowska and Kedir Nesha Turi carried out detailed research on innovation and business dynamics, under the supervision of Jo Wijnands and Koos Gardebroek (Wageningen University). The report was written by Jo Wijnands, Gemma Tacken and Krijn Poppe. We thank DG Enterprise and Industry for their support in this study. We hope and expect that the results will be useful in the discussions of the High Level Group and that they are inspirational for future scientific work on this issue.
Die Verantwortung für die Inhalte liegt bei den jeweiligen Verfassern bzw. Verfasserinnen.
Landbauforschung = Applied agricultural and forestry research : journal of applied research in agriculture and forestry, 2016
This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a projection of medium-term developments of ... more This article presents the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a projection of medium-term developments of the agricultural sector in Germany, addressing agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, income and environmental aspects. The Baseline was established using and combining several models of the Thünen Modelling Network. In the Thünen Baseline 2015-2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets, in combination with a weak Euro, contribute to the positive development of many agricultural product prices and farm incomes in Germany. The abolishment of the milk quota and rising milk prices are key factors in the projected increase of milk production to 37 million tons by 2025. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macroeconomic developments. Germany is the only member state without voluntary coupled support payments in the Baseline. The use of coupled payments in the other EU member states has only small negative effects on Germany. Reduction of ammonia emissions and high regional nitrogen soil surpluses remain among the key environmental challenges for agricultural policy.
German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Nov 1, 2011
This article analyses the impact of national, European and global biofuel targets on German food ... more This article analyses the impact of national, European and global biofuel targets on German food production and land allocation until 2020. The LEITAP General Equilibrium Model simulates the interaction of agricultural and energy markets in response to the envisaged expansion of the biofuel industry. First generation biofuels are integrated in the production structure of the petroleum sector. Second generation biofuels are modelled indirectly via estimated bottom-up reductions in land available for agriculture. Biofuel targets are set exogenously according to the current policy goals. The model recursively responds to increments in the biofuel mandates over three time intervals. Each country or region is required the meet its respective target and is allowed to subsidize biofuel consumption through a budget-neutral mechanism. Thanks to a nested land specification, changes in land use take into account variable elasticities of substitution among different cultivations. The results indicate that German production of biofuel crops substantially increases. In particular, oilseed output experiences a remarkable growth. Land allocation and land prices also change significantly. However, higher production does not suffice to satisfy the demand for biofuels feedstock, and imports of oilseeds and sugar rise considerably. Moreover, the model suggests that the growth in biofuel crop production among the remaining EU-26 countries is driven by the new Member States of the EU, and that the supply of EU biofuel crops also has to be enhanced by imports from abroad. Biofuel policies outside Europe show only little additional impact on German agriculture. The projected changes in food commodity prices are in line with the results of other CGE analyses, although prices rise to a lesser extent than projected in studies based on Partial Equilibrium Models.
Cleaner environmental systems, Mar 1, 2022
This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-... more This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the EU biofuels directive in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework. Our results show that without mandatory blending or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector the targets of the EU Biofuel directive will not the reached in 2010. With mandatory blending the enhanced demand for biofuel crops has a strong impact on agriculture at the global and European level. The additional demand from the energy sector might slow down or reverse the long term process of declining agricultural prices.
on land, food production, total GHG balance, trade and prices of agricultural commodities. We wil... more on land, food production, total GHG balance, trade and prices of agricultural commodities. We will also look at how these policies will influence biofuel production in regions where biofuel targets are voluntary, e.g., China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. By using the CGE-model LEITAP, coupled to the integrated assessment model IMAGE, cross-sectoral effects of biofuel mandates, geographically explicit land use, and environmental effects like GHG balances and carbon stocks will also be taken into account.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2009
The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process... more The mission of the JRC-IPTS is to provide customer-driven support to the EU policy-making process by developing science-based responses to policy challenges that have both a socioeconomic as well as a scientific/technological dimension.
Negotiating market access in the wake of Brexit is a difficult matter. On the one hand, tariffs w... more Negotiating market access in the wake of Brexit is a difficult matter. On the one hand, tariffs with the EU and the rest of the world have to be renegotiated. On the other hand, existing Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) of the EU and third countries have to be adjusted in order to deal with this new situation. According to some professionals TRQs are likely to become a contentious issue in Britain's reestablishment of its status as an independent WTO member. While the UK is highly interconnected with the EU in almost all sectors the interdependency becomes especially apparent in the agricultural sector. Britain's self-sufficiency rate of food products amounts to only 62 % which is also mirrored in a highly negative trade deficit in this sector. Accordingly, the agricultural markets in the UK and the exporting countries are expected to be particularly affected by a Brexit. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, comprehensive quantitative effects of a tariff scenario are analysed with a focus on the EU agricultural sector. Therefore, we assume that the UK trades under the rules of the WTO by adopting MFN tariffs. It turns out that the impact of a Brexit on agricultural sectors in Europe is mainly negative with the most pronounced effects in the meat and livestock sectors. Second, we plan to dig deeper into the question how renegotiation of an existing TRQ, i.e. the Hilton quota for beef, affects the stakeholders involved. Therefore, we combine several quantitative simulation models. The tariff scenarios are simulated with the MAGNET model a global computable general equilibrium model which is based on the GTAP model and database. In order to grasp the complex implications of a renegotiated beef quota for UK and the EU-27 across agri-food markets we also employ AGMEMOD a partial equilibrium model to focus on beef and related markets and to provide a detailed price vector for FARMIS a farm-type model which allows for assertions on farm incomes and its distribution across farms.
Main scenarios-baseline, regional world and liberalisation 2.1. Total population development in %... more Main scenarios-baseline, regional world and liberalisation 2.1. Total population development in % per 5-year-period 2.2. Average natural population growth in thousands and in births-deaths-ratios (B/D) 1990-2003 2.3. Average net-migration in thousands per 5-year period 2.4. Typology of population change with regard to natural population change and net-migration 2.5. Classification of EU-25 regions to the degree of rurality, share of population and land area in the three rurality groups, 2003 2.6. Population in the EU, 2003 2.7. Percentage of private households made up of one person. Selected countries 2.8. Percentage of private households made up of more than four persons. Selected countries 2.9. Per capita supply (kg/year) of selected food categories, EU-15 average 2.10. Drivers that have influenced consumer food consumption in the period 1990-2005 2.11. Development of crop yields 2.12. EU decisions and world market prices 2.13. Exogenous drivers (level 1) and policy-related drivers (level 2) 3.1. Scenario assumptions 3.2. Policy Measures for the CAP 3.3. EU proposal in Doha Development Round 4.1. Schematic overview of the models: geographical and sectoral coverage 4.2. Nominal producer prices for agricultural and food products in the EU under different scenarios, Baseline in 2020 = 100 4.3. Production of crops used for biofuels production and consumption and imports of biofuels in EU-25 and EU-15, 2005 and 2020, in mio t 4.4. Farm income per activity group, EU-25 4.5. Agricultural income per country, 2020, relative to baseline in percent 4.6. Number of farms per sub-sector in 2003 and in 2020 in different scenarios (in mio farms) 4.7. Selected elements o nitrate balance (N). Percentage changes compared to baseline 4.8. Land use classification used in CLUEs 4.9. Specification of spatial policy scenario settings 4.10. Area changed in the whole of Europe per scenario 5.1. Baseline economic reaction types combined with OECD rurality types 5.2. Baseline reaction types in the EU-15 and EU-10 5.3. Strengths and weaknesses of the baseline reaction types 5.4. Average sectoral employment structure of baseline types in 2002 5.5. Economic status of the different regional types (2002/2004) 5.6. Average GDP/cap (pps) in the year 2002 for baseline types 5.7. Average unemployment rate in the year 2004 5.8. Share of region per demographic cluster and OECD type (%) 5.9. Number of inhabitants in OECD types 2000 to 2020 (in 1,000) 5.10. Typical demographic reactions revealing regional strengths or weaknesses 5.11. Total population clusters and OECD types 5.12. Combination of demographic development and economic baseline types 5.13. Socioeconomic key indicators (2002/2004) for the PT groups 5.14. Yearly change rate of arable crop farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.15. Yearly change rate of cattle farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.16. Yearly change rate of veg & perm farms in the baseline 2020 scenario and difference in farm number between baseline and liberalisation scenario 5.17. Agricultural land classes in 2000 5.18. Indicators characterising the regionalisation scenario 5.19. Averages of indicators per cluster (in % of UAA and livestock units/ha) 5.20. Characterisation of selected regionalisation clusters by farm structure (2004) Scenar 2020-Scenario study on agriculture and the rural world Acronyms ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific countries AMS Aggregate Measure of Support ARTS Actions on the integration of Rural Transport Services AWU Annual Work Unit BAP Biodiversity Action Plan BG Bulgaria BSE Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy CAFE Clean Air For Europe cap Capita CAP Common Agricultural Policy (EU) CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis model
This paper analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of t... more This paper analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is twofold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.
The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consisten... more The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 20, 2016
Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models,... more Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.
This paper presents a simulation analysis for EU agricultural policy scenarios based on the combi... more This paper presents a simulation analysis for EU agricultural policy scenarios based on the combined use of a PE (partial equilibrium) and a GE (general equilibrium) model. In order to draw upon the strengths of both model types, the PE model ESIM (European Simulation Model) and the GE model LEITAP are combined to analyze four agricultural policy scenarios until the year 2020, including a baseline with moderate reforms as well as a full liberalization of EU agriculture. Compared to the pronounced developments of the agri-food sectors under the baseline, the impact of policy scenarios is rather small. Real agricultural prices in the EU fall by about 20% under the baseline, whereas the additional price decrease in case of full liberalization is only 14%. Agricultural supply in the EU is rather stable. Even under full liberalization, agricultural supply will not decline dramatically: it falls by about 10% if compared to the baseline. The contribution of the agricultural and food sector to the overall economy of the EU is rather limited. The full liberalization of the EU agricultural sector results in a decline of the shares of the agri-food sectors in total GDP by 0.11 percentage points and in total employment by 0.08 percentage points. The consideration of a decline of agricultural factor prices for capital and labor matters for the supply response, but not too much. Farm supply for the EU-25 is 0.5% higher when taking into account lower factor prices after liberalization.