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Papers by Massimiliano Serati

Research paper thumbnail of Valutare e programmare le politiche di sviluppo: teoria e applicazioni

Premessa Conoscere per programmare 2. Spesa pubblica (produttiva) e sistemi economici. 2.1 Gli ef... more Premessa Conoscere per programmare 2. Spesa pubblica (produttiva) e sistemi economici. 2.1 Gli effetti della spesa pubblica sulla crescita economica: dai modelli neoclassici a quelli di crescita endogena (in sintesi) 2.2 L'evidenza empirica 2.3 Gli studi sui sistemi economici locali 2.4 L'allocazione territoriale della spesa pubblica (produttiva) 2.5 Una nuova proposta: criteri ispiratori, caratteristiche e obiettivi alla base dell' Indicatore Sintetico di Priorità 3. La struttura dell'Indicatore Sintetico di Priorità 4. Dalla pianificazione alla programmazione 4.1 Sistemi locali e territoriali 4.2 Le ripartizioni territoriali 4.3 Il territorio: dall'Economia alla Finanza Pubblica Bibliografia Allegati: Scheda di Territorializzazione dei Progetti Rappresentazioni cartografiche Premessa Nel processo di riforma della pubblica amministrazione italiana il ruolo attribuito agli enti territoriali nel programmare lo sviluppo è diventato sempre più centrale sia nel panorama istituzionale italiano che europeo. Da un lato infatti l'Unione Europea ha riconosciuto tale centralità sia all'interno del Trattato Unico che dello Schema di Sviluppo dello Spazio Europeo, dall'altro lato il legislatore nazionale ha attribuito in prevalenza alle istituzioni territoriali il compito di analizzare, pianificare, programmare e gestire il processo di trasformazione del territorio, inteso come spazio pensato.

Research paper thumbnail of Brain Drain, Brain Gain and Brain Return Explained by a Model Based on a Comparable Individual Country's Well-being Indicator (LISE) Working paper

Our paper aims to introduce a new model that will be able to explain jointly migration flows link... more Our paper aims to introduce a new model that will be able to explain jointly migration flows linked to brain drain, brain gain and brain return. Our simple indicator (LISE) measures level of individual well-being linked to each country and it was perfectly comparable. With our indicator it is possible to understand what are the drivers of migration flows, there is the possibility to prevent phenomena related to brain drain or to incentivate phenomena related to brain gain or brain return simply connecting the relative differences between the indicators calculated in various countries of the world. We have empirically tested the validity of our indicator on a sample of 12 countries. We have opened new avenues for research because using our indicator it is possible to make forecasts or to understand how and when a skilled migration flow. can occur. We are able to prevent damages of Brain Drain and cross border skill mismatching using our simple indicator.

Research paper thumbnail of Effetti Aggregati Della Tassazione Sul Mercato Del Lavoro: Un’Analisi Econometrica

della sua persistenza per l’Italia, con l’intento in particolare di valutare il ruolo della tassa... more della sua persistenza per l’Italia, con l’intento in particolare di valutare il ruolo della tassazione. A questo scopo, costruiamo ed utilizziamo un modello dinamico basato sulla letteratura insider/outsider capace di descrivere gli effetti sulla disoccupazione di diversi shock (offerta aggregata, domanda aggregata e partecipazione), di mutamenti nella pressione fiscale sul lavoro e di variazioni nei sussidi. Per rendere più agevole l’interpretazione dei risultati, il modello viene anche stimato per gli

Research paper thumbnail of Darwin lo aveva detto

Research paper thumbnail of Employees' expectations from the managers: the case of Italy

Research paper thumbnail of Drivers of migration flows for companies: an integrated analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Cittadini del mondo in transito

Research paper thumbnail of Attrattività di impresa e sviluppo economico del territorio. Promuovere la crescita del tessuto industriale regionale per resistere alle pressioni competitive globali

Research paper thumbnail of Big data analytics for forecasting tourists' arrivals: the Lombardy case

Research paper thumbnail of A proposal for a micro-territorial well-being index: the WIT

The literature on the evaluation of how the well-being is measured is full of different contribut... more The literature on the evaluation of how the well-being is measured is full of different contributions, ranging from the subjective measure, to the batch of indicators approach, to the provision of synthetic objective indexes. However, up to date, there is still a lack of such measures on micro-territorial level, i.e. on town-by-town basis. This paper, thanks to the statistic platform 100% Lombardia, aims to develop such indexes, named WIT (Well-being Index for Towns), using a cluster analysis, a Bayesian dynamic factor model and a Panel-FAVARX.

Research paper thumbnail of Piccoli e grandi tesori del belpaese: turismo e crescita economica nelle province italiane

Research paper thumbnail of The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: was it demand or supply driven?

Research paper thumbnail of Tourism and waste management: An analysis of municipal solid waste

International Journal of Tourism Research, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Reading the territory: supporting regional policy making with synthetic indicators from 100% Lombardia

Research paper thumbnail of An analysis of sub-national tourism in Japan: Tourist and economic spillovers and their determinants

Annals of Tourism Research, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of The cross-country impact of ECB policies: Asymmetries in – Asymmetries out?

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019

Since its inception, the adequacy of the Eurozone to be an Optimal Currency Area has been questio... more Since its inception, the adequacy of the Eurozone to be an Optimal Currency Area has been questioned, and, along with it, the homogeneous transmission and impact of the monetary impulses across the member countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the transmission mechanism’s functioning, its symmetry, impact on target variables, and evolution, addressing all the questions which have remained unanswered in the previous literature, while adding evidence on the impact of non-standard policy measures. We do so by adopting a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameters FAVAR model that fixes the flaws present in past research. The empirical analysis shows that the occurrence of the two crises significantly altered policy transmission, with both the interest rate and credit channel being consistently affected. It also shows that while they provided effective stimuli to the economies, the unconventional measures implemented were not able to fix those asymmetries. Policy-wise, our findings suggest that authorities must push towards consistent innovation on the fiscal side, while gaining more confidence with regards to the new monetary toolkit.

Research paper thumbnail of The Symmetry of ECB Monetary Policy Impact Under Scrutiny: An Assessment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of BVAR models and forecasting: a quarterly model for the EMU-11

Research paper thumbnail of The East-West migration in Europe: skill levels of migrants and their effects on the european labour market

In this paper we address two relevant issues among those characterising the macroeconomic literat... more In this paper we address two relevant issues among those characterising the macroeconomic literature on migration. (a) We evaluate which impact is produced by the immigration flows coming from the enlargement countries on the EU-15 labour market. (b) We draw clues on the migrant characteristics as for their skill levels. We adopt an insider/outsider model inspired by that of Amisano and Serati (2003), but enlarged in order to model the migration flows and fit to wage, participation and employment differentials between skilled and unskilled workers. We identify the structural shocks of the reduced VAR form of the model through sign restrictions imposed to the Impulse Response Functions, leaving unconstrained only the impact multipliers of relative (skilled to unskilled) wage, employment and labour force with respect to a migration shock. This is equivalent to adopt an agnostic approach, letting emerge freely the signals coming from the data: combining them with theoretical suggestion...

Research paper thumbnail of Trade and quality: theoretical and empirical evidence for the euro zone

Since the contribution of Linder (1961) product quality is considered as a factor potentially boo... more Since the contribution of Linder (1961) product quality is considered as a factor potentially boosting exports, especially for the most industrialized countries. However, being quality difficult to be measured, the macro-econometric studies on its role are not numerous and have not produced clear-cut results. In this paper we shed some light on the theoretical and empirical impact of product quality on the export performance of the EU-12 area. To avoid problems of mis-specification and endogeneity usual in the empirical literature on trade equations, we model exports as jointly endogenous with GDP, inflation and exchange rate. For this purpose we modify and enlarge a New Keynesian open economy model à la Clarida, Galì and Gertler (2001) to adapt it to a large open economy. Sign restrictions, based on theoretical impact multipliers, enable the identification of quality as one of the structural shocks of the corresponding Bayesian VAR, avoiding drawbacks connected to the choice of an ...

Research paper thumbnail of Valutare e programmare le politiche di sviluppo: teoria e applicazioni

Premessa Conoscere per programmare 2. Spesa pubblica (produttiva) e sistemi economici. 2.1 Gli ef... more Premessa Conoscere per programmare 2. Spesa pubblica (produttiva) e sistemi economici. 2.1 Gli effetti della spesa pubblica sulla crescita economica: dai modelli neoclassici a quelli di crescita endogena (in sintesi) 2.2 L'evidenza empirica 2.3 Gli studi sui sistemi economici locali 2.4 L'allocazione territoriale della spesa pubblica (produttiva) 2.5 Una nuova proposta: criteri ispiratori, caratteristiche e obiettivi alla base dell' Indicatore Sintetico di Priorità 3. La struttura dell'Indicatore Sintetico di Priorità 4. Dalla pianificazione alla programmazione 4.1 Sistemi locali e territoriali 4.2 Le ripartizioni territoriali 4.3 Il territorio: dall'Economia alla Finanza Pubblica Bibliografia Allegati: Scheda di Territorializzazione dei Progetti Rappresentazioni cartografiche Premessa Nel processo di riforma della pubblica amministrazione italiana il ruolo attribuito agli enti territoriali nel programmare lo sviluppo è diventato sempre più centrale sia nel panorama istituzionale italiano che europeo. Da un lato infatti l'Unione Europea ha riconosciuto tale centralità sia all'interno del Trattato Unico che dello Schema di Sviluppo dello Spazio Europeo, dall'altro lato il legislatore nazionale ha attribuito in prevalenza alle istituzioni territoriali il compito di analizzare, pianificare, programmare e gestire il processo di trasformazione del territorio, inteso come spazio pensato.

Research paper thumbnail of Brain Drain, Brain Gain and Brain Return Explained by a Model Based on a Comparable Individual Country's Well-being Indicator (LISE) Working paper

Our paper aims to introduce a new model that will be able to explain jointly migration flows link... more Our paper aims to introduce a new model that will be able to explain jointly migration flows linked to brain drain, brain gain and brain return. Our simple indicator (LISE) measures level of individual well-being linked to each country and it was perfectly comparable. With our indicator it is possible to understand what are the drivers of migration flows, there is the possibility to prevent phenomena related to brain drain or to incentivate phenomena related to brain gain or brain return simply connecting the relative differences between the indicators calculated in various countries of the world. We have empirically tested the validity of our indicator on a sample of 12 countries. We have opened new avenues for research because using our indicator it is possible to make forecasts or to understand how and when a skilled migration flow. can occur. We are able to prevent damages of Brain Drain and cross border skill mismatching using our simple indicator.

Research paper thumbnail of Effetti Aggregati Della Tassazione Sul Mercato Del Lavoro: Un’Analisi Econometrica

della sua persistenza per l’Italia, con l’intento in particolare di valutare il ruolo della tassa... more della sua persistenza per l’Italia, con l’intento in particolare di valutare il ruolo della tassazione. A questo scopo, costruiamo ed utilizziamo un modello dinamico basato sulla letteratura insider/outsider capace di descrivere gli effetti sulla disoccupazione di diversi shock (offerta aggregata, domanda aggregata e partecipazione), di mutamenti nella pressione fiscale sul lavoro e di variazioni nei sussidi. Per rendere più agevole l’interpretazione dei risultati, il modello viene anche stimato per gli

Research paper thumbnail of Darwin lo aveva detto

Research paper thumbnail of Employees' expectations from the managers: the case of Italy

Research paper thumbnail of Drivers of migration flows for companies: an integrated analysis

Research paper thumbnail of Cittadini del mondo in transito

Research paper thumbnail of Attrattività di impresa e sviluppo economico del territorio. Promuovere la crescita del tessuto industriale regionale per resistere alle pressioni competitive globali

Research paper thumbnail of Big data analytics for forecasting tourists' arrivals: the Lombardy case

Research paper thumbnail of A proposal for a micro-territorial well-being index: the WIT

The literature on the evaluation of how the well-being is measured is full of different contribut... more The literature on the evaluation of how the well-being is measured is full of different contributions, ranging from the subjective measure, to the batch of indicators approach, to the provision of synthetic objective indexes. However, up to date, there is still a lack of such measures on micro-territorial level, i.e. on town-by-town basis. This paper, thanks to the statistic platform 100% Lombardia, aims to develop such indexes, named WIT (Well-being Index for Towns), using a cluster analysis, a Bayesian dynamic factor model and a Panel-FAVARX.

Research paper thumbnail of Piccoli e grandi tesori del belpaese: turismo e crescita economica nelle province italiane

Research paper thumbnail of The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: was it demand or supply driven?

Research paper thumbnail of Tourism and waste management: An analysis of municipal solid waste

International Journal of Tourism Research, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Reading the territory: supporting regional policy making with synthetic indicators from 100% Lombardia

Research paper thumbnail of An analysis of sub-national tourism in Japan: Tourist and economic spillovers and their determinants

Annals of Tourism Research, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of The cross-country impact of ECB policies: Asymmetries in – Asymmetries out?

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019

Since its inception, the adequacy of the Eurozone to be an Optimal Currency Area has been questio... more Since its inception, the adequacy of the Eurozone to be an Optimal Currency Area has been questioned, and, along with it, the homogeneous transmission and impact of the monetary impulses across the member countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the transmission mechanism’s functioning, its symmetry, impact on target variables, and evolution, addressing all the questions which have remained unanswered in the previous literature, while adding evidence on the impact of non-standard policy measures. We do so by adopting a Bayesian Time-Varying Parameters FAVAR model that fixes the flaws present in past research. The empirical analysis shows that the occurrence of the two crises significantly altered policy transmission, with both the interest rate and credit channel being consistently affected. It also shows that while they provided effective stimuli to the economies, the unconventional measures implemented were not able to fix those asymmetries. Policy-wise, our findings suggest that authorities must push towards consistent innovation on the fiscal side, while gaining more confidence with regards to the new monetary toolkit.

Research paper thumbnail of The Symmetry of ECB Monetary Policy Impact Under Scrutiny: An Assessment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of BVAR models and forecasting: a quarterly model for the EMU-11

Research paper thumbnail of The East-West migration in Europe: skill levels of migrants and their effects on the european labour market

In this paper we address two relevant issues among those characterising the macroeconomic literat... more In this paper we address two relevant issues among those characterising the macroeconomic literature on migration. (a) We evaluate which impact is produced by the immigration flows coming from the enlargement countries on the EU-15 labour market. (b) We draw clues on the migrant characteristics as for their skill levels. We adopt an insider/outsider model inspired by that of Amisano and Serati (2003), but enlarged in order to model the migration flows and fit to wage, participation and employment differentials between skilled and unskilled workers. We identify the structural shocks of the reduced VAR form of the model through sign restrictions imposed to the Impulse Response Functions, leaving unconstrained only the impact multipliers of relative (skilled to unskilled) wage, employment and labour force with respect to a migration shock. This is equivalent to adopt an agnostic approach, letting emerge freely the signals coming from the data: combining them with theoretical suggestion...

Research paper thumbnail of Trade and quality: theoretical and empirical evidence for the euro zone

Since the contribution of Linder (1961) product quality is considered as a factor potentially boo... more Since the contribution of Linder (1961) product quality is considered as a factor potentially boosting exports, especially for the most industrialized countries. However, being quality difficult to be measured, the macro-econometric studies on its role are not numerous and have not produced clear-cut results. In this paper we shed some light on the theoretical and empirical impact of product quality on the export performance of the EU-12 area. To avoid problems of mis-specification and endogeneity usual in the empirical literature on trade equations, we model exports as jointly endogenous with GDP, inflation and exchange rate. For this purpose we modify and enlarge a New Keynesian open economy model à la Clarida, Galì and Gertler (2001) to adapt it to a large open economy. Sign restrictions, based on theoretical impact multipliers, enable the identification of quality as one of the structural shocks of the corresponding Bayesian VAR, avoiding drawbacks connected to the choice of an ...