Mathijs van Viet - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Mathijs van Viet

ABSTRACT Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participato... more ABSTRACT Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.

Regional Environmental Change, 2013

ABSTRACT Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has i... more ABSTRACT Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage–damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and u... more Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project water scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2011

To capture a system's uncertainty, a participatory, integrated approach is a prerequisite of ... more To capture a system's uncertainty, a participatory, integrated approach is a prerequisite of many scenario development projects. Increasingly, a toolbox of methods is employed to facilitate stakeholder input. In this paper we evaluate four potential added values of using a toolbox of methods and the effect on the quality of resulting scenarios. Ten case studies within a large project (SCENES), that set out to develop participatory scenarios for Europe's freshwaters, are used to test our hypotheses. We analysed a first series of scenario workshops, evaluating (dis)advantages of the toolbox and the quality of scenarios as perceived by stakeholders and local organisers. As can be deduced from the resulting scenarios, results indicate that all hypothesised added values materialised to some extent. Using a toolbox enlarges the possibilities to: (1) adapt to local circumstances; (2) adapt to a variety of stakeholders; (3) compare results across scales and across case studies; and ...

Futures, 2010

... model. 5. Updated scenario development framework. We present an updated, scenario development... more ... model. 5. Updated scenario development framework. We present an updated, scenario development framework that builds on existing scenario development methods. ... 5.2.1. Use of FCM in participatory scenario development. FCMs ...

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fre... more Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and u... more Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Governments all over the world are struggling with the question of how to adapt to climate change... more Governments all over the world are struggling with the question of how to adapt to climate change. They need information not only about the issue and its possible consequences, but also about feasible governance strategies and instruments to combat it. At the same time, scientists from different social disciplines are trying to understand the dynamics and peculiarities of the governance of climate change adaptation.
This book demonstrates how action-oriented research methods can be used to satisfy the need for both policy-relevant information and scientific knowledge. Bringing together eight case studies that show inspiring practices of action research from around the world, including Australia, Denmark, Vietnam and the Netherlands, the book covers a rich variety of action-research applications, running from participatory observation to serious games and role-playing exercises. It explores many adaptation challenges, from flood-risk safety to heat stress and freshwater availability, and draws out valuable lessons about the conditions that make action research successful, demonstrating how scientific and academic knowledge can be used in a practical context to reach useful and applicable insights.
The book will be of interest to scholars and students of climate change, environmental policy, politics and governance.
http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9781138017603/

Action Research for Climate Change Adaptation - Developing and applying knowledge for governance. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264438716_Action_Research_for_Climate_Change_Adaptation_-_Developing_and_applying_knowledge_for_governance

Het boek bevat 8 hoofdstukken over uiteenlopende onderwerpen als leiderschap, coöperatieve samenw... more Het boek bevat 8 hoofdstukken over uiteenlopende onderwerpen als leiderschap, coöperatieve samenwerking, nu beslissen voor later en legitimiteit. Elk hoofdstuk bevat een korte inleiding, een overzicht van de wetenschappelijke inzichten, een of meerdere praktijk cases, handelingsperspectieven en een bijsluiter. Deze bijsluiter reflecteert kort op het handelingsperspectief. Voor de complexe problemen en vraagstukken die de revue passeren zijn immers geen simpele antwoorden. De handelingsperspectieven zullen daarom niet overal en altijd toepasbaar zijn.

Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition, 2014

Many large coastal cities are located in deltas, which makes them vulnerable to floods. In many p... more Many large coastal cities are located in deltas, which makes them vulnerable to floods. In many places flood damages have increased due to an increase in people and assets in the cities. This process is expected to continue. At the same time, climate change causes floods to occur more often in many rivers and deltas due to higher discharges and sea level rise. These trends call for the development and implementation of new technologies and strategies in flood risk management. This call is also acknowledged in the Netherlands, a country that has a strong history of relying on structural measures. The city of Rotterdam includes many unembanked areas, of which large parts will be redeveloped in the near future. Current practise is to elevate all unembanked areas to a 1:4000 years flood level. This is not only very costly, but also causes problems when areas are redeveloped in phases, and in areas where plots of existing buildings will remain. Rotterdam therefore looks for adaptive (or non-structural) measures to decrease flood damages in these areas. Such measures are very little used in the Netherlands. One of the questions in Rotterdam is how these new measures fit within current policies, laws and regulations. This chapter describes the measures studied for a case study area in Rotterdam, an analysis of the policies, laws and regulations that affect these measures and the implication on adaptation to floods in urban flood management. Our research shows that in principal the rules allow for implementation. It is, however, problematic to enforce the measures, which can cause problems, e.g. when not all waterfront buildings are dry-proofed. Better communication of flood risks is recommended to increase awareness and preparedness, which might lead to a higher implementation of adaptive measures.

"Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated... more "Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS
framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage–damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part
(almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building
level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level."

Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storyl... more Within large integrative scenario studies, it is often problematic to fully link narrative storylines and quantitative models. This paper demonstrates the potential use of a highly participatory scenario development framework that involves a mix of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods. The assumption is that the use of semi-quantitative methods will structure the participatory output, which provides a solid base for quantification. It should further facilitate the communication between stakeholders and modellers. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps is the main semi-quantitative method and has a central place in the proposed framework. The paper provides a detailed description of its implementation in participatory workshops, also because of a lack of documented testing of its implementation. We tested Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as part of the framework in two training sessions; both gave encouraging results. Results show that the tool provides a structured, semi-quantitative understanding of the system perceptions of a group of participants. Participants perceived the method as easy to understand and easy to use in a short period of time. This supports the hypothesis that Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can be used as part of a scenario development framework and that the new framework can help to bridge the gap between storylines and models.

Regional Environmental Change, 2013

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013

Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2011

Futures, 2010

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2011

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and u... more Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). The main advantage of combining exploratory and normative scenarios is in the identification of robust actions: actions that are effective in the different socio-environmental contexts sketched in the exploratory scenarios. This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project (SCENES). Results showed that the exploratory scenarios influenced the content of the backcasts, thus making the identification of robust strategies possible. The list of robust strategies includes both technological and social/organisational strategies, highlighting the need for an integrated approach. The approach shows high potential, but as the methodology is in its infancy more research is needed, particularly in methods to facilitate and monitor information flow between exploratory scenarios and backcasts.

Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition, 2014