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Papers by Matthew MacLeod

Environmental Pollution, 2003

The Berkeley Trent (BETR)-World model, a 25 compartment, geographically explicit fugacity-based m... more The Berkeley Trent (BETR)-World model, a 25 compartment, geographically explicit fugacity-based model is described and applied to evaluate the transport of chemicals from temperate source regions to receptor regions (such as the Arctic). The model was parameterized using GIS and an array of digital data on weather, oceans, freshwater, vegetation and geo-political boundaries. This version of the BETR model framework

Environmental toxicology and chemistry / SETAC, 2002

First-order analytical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for environmental chemical fate model... more First-order analytical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for environmental chemical fate models is described and applied to a regional contaminant fate model and a food web bioaccumulation model. By assuming linear relationships between inputs and outputs, independence, and log-normal distributions of input variables, a relationship between uncertainty in input parameters and uncertainty in output parameters can be derived, yielding results that are consistent with a Monte Carlo analysis with similar input assumptions. A graphical technique is devised for interpreting and communicating uncertainty propagation as a function of variance in input parameters and model sensitivity. The suggested approach is less calculationally intensive than Monte Carlo analysis and is appropriate for preliminary assessment of uncertainty when models are applied to generic environments or to large geographic areas or when detailed parameterization of input uncertainties is unwarranted or impossible. ...

Environmental science & technology, Jan 14, 2015

. Modeled and measured PFOS concentration in serum for women using the adjusted G mbl (12.2 mL/kg... more . Modeled and measured PFOS concentration in serum for women using the adjusted G mbl (12.2 mL/kg-bw/year) and Wong et al., 2 G mbl (6.1 mL/kg-bw/year).

Environmental science & technology, Jan 4, 2014

During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere ha... more During recent decades concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere have been monitored at multiple stations worldwide. We used three statistical methods to analyze a total of 748 time series of selected POPs in the atmosphere to determine if there are statistically significant reductions in levels of POPs that have had control actions enacted to restrict or eliminate manufacture, use and emissions. Significant decreasing trends were identified in 560 (75%) of the 748 time series collected from the Arctic, North America, and Europe, indicating that the atmospheric concentrations of these POPs are generally decreasing, consistent with the overall effectiveness of emission control actions. Statistically significant trends in synthetic time series could be reliably identified with the improved Mann-Kendall (iMK) test and the digital filtration (DF) technique in time series longer than 5 years. The temporal trends of new (or emerging) POPs in the atmosphere ar...

The journal of physical chemistry. A, Jan 13, 2014

Excited singlet state structures believed to be responsible for the Franck-Condon-allowed and the... more Excited singlet state structures believed to be responsible for the Franck-Condon-allowed and the strongly Stokes-shifted (blue) emissions in linear permethylated oligosilanes (Si(n)Me(2n+2)) have been found and characterized with time-dependent density functional (TD-DFT) methods for chain lengths 4 ≤ n ≤ 16. For chain lengths with n > 7, the S1 relaxed structures closely resemble the S0 equilibrium structures where all valence angles are tetrahedral and all backbone dihedral angles are transoid. At chain lengths with n < 8 more strongly distorted structures with one long Si-Si bond built from silicon 3p orbitals are encountered. The large Stokes shift is due more to a large destabilization of the ground state than the relaxation in the S1 excited state. For n = 7, both types of minima were located, exactly reproducing the borderline between the large-radius and the small-radius self-trapped excitons known from experiments.

Environmental Science & Technology, 2014

Rockstrom et al. proposed a set of planetary boundaries that delimit a "safe operating space for ... more Rockstrom et al. proposed a set of planetary boundaries that delimit a "safe operating space for humanity". Many of the planetary boundaries that have so far been identified are determined by chemical agents. Other chemical pollution-related planetary boundaries likely exist, but are currently unknown. A chemical poses an unknown planetary boundary threat if it simultaneously fulfills three conditions:

Environmental Science & Technology, 2005

We introduce a new global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model (the Berkeley-Trent Global Mode... more We introduce a new global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model (the Berkeley-Trent Global Model; BETR-Global) that integrates global climate data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). BETR-Global represents the global environment as a connected set of 288 multimedia regions on a 15 degrees grid. We evaluate the model by simulating the global fate and transport of seven PCB congeners over a 70 year period and find satisfactory agreement between model output and observations of atmospheric PCB concentrations at 11 long-term monitoring stations in the Northern Hemisphere. We demonstrate the use of the model as a tool for understanding global pollutant dynamics by examining the hypothesis that variability in global-scale climate conditions, as reflected bythe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), influences atmospheric PCB concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. We estimate that the maximum variability in atmospheric PCB concentrations attributable to NAO variability is approximately a factor of 2. The influence of variability in the NAO on PCB concentrations in air is most likely to be observed in the winter and spring at monitoring sites in Northern Europe and the Arctic. Analysis of long-term monitoring data from 11 sites shows some statistically significant relationships between NAO indices and atmospheric PCB concentrations during the winter and spring. Giving consideration to competing factors that influence atmospheric PCB concentrations, longer time series of monitoring data are required to fully evaluate the modeling results and to improve our understanding of the role of climate variability on the long-term fate of persistent semivolatile pollutants.

Integrated …, 2012

Multimedia mass balance models of chemical fate in the environment have been used for over 3 deca... more Multimedia mass balance models of chemical fate in the environment have been used for over 3 decades in a regulatory context to assist decision making. As these models become more comprehensive, reliable, and accepted, there is a need to recognize and adopt principles of Good Modeling Practice (GMP) to ensure that multimedia models are applied with transparency and adherence to accepted scientific principles. We propose and discuss 6 principles of GMP for applying existing multimedia models in a decision-making context, namely 1) specification of the goals of the model assessment, 2) specification of the model used, 3) specification of the input data, 4) specification of the output data, 5) conduct of a sensitivity and possibly also uncertainty analysis, and finally 6) specification of the limitations and limits of applicability of the analysis. These principles are justified and discussed with a view to enhancing the transparency and quality of model-based assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012;xxx:xxx-xxx. ß 2012 SETAC