Michael Ormsby - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Michael Ormsby
Frontiers in insect science, Mar 18, 2024
Current Forestry Reports, Dec 28, 2023
Purpose of Review Because tree seeds have been considered a low-risk pathway for the spread of pl... more Purpose of Review Because tree seeds have been considered a low-risk pathway for the spread of plant pathogenic fungi, their international movement is not subject to strict phytosanitary regulation. However, recent studies have provided scientific evidence that the biosecurity risk of seed trade may not be as negligible as assumed. This review summarises current knowledge about seed trade activity across the world and seed-borne plant pathogenic fungi and highlights knowledge gaps that need to be filled to mitigate the risk of spreading tree pathogens via seeds. Recent Findings Several outbreaks of severe tree diseases in natural forests and plantations worldwide have been linked to fungal pathogens spread by seed trade. Indeed, recent studies based on modern sequencing technologies have shown that tree seeds harbour highly diverse fungal communities, including well-known pathogens and fungal taxa belonging to unknown species. While it has become clear that even apparently healthy seeds can carry potentially pathogenic fungi, the likelihood of seed-borne pathogens being introduced and becoming established, spreading and causing impact in the new environment is still unclear which challenges the assessment of the phytosanitary risk posed by seed trade. Summary Our analyses show that large amounts of tree seeds have been traded among countries and continents. Based on published literature, the risk of spreading pathogenic fungi via tree seed movement is high. However, the role of the taxonomically and functionally diverse fungal communities associated with seeds is still poorly understood. In particular, more research is needed to assess the likelihood of seed-borne fungi being transmitted to the seedlings and spreading and causing impact in the new environment.
... High Risk of a Phytophthora ramorum Epidemicf Daniel Hüberli,2'3 Kylie Ireland,4... more ... High Risk of a Phytophthora ramorum Epidemicf Daniel Hüberli,2'3 Kylie Ireland,4 Ian Smith,5 Bernard Dell,2 Michael Ormsby,6 David Rizzo,7 ... Werrcs, S.; Marwitz, R.; Man Tn'T Veld, WA; De Cock, AWAM; Bonants, PJM; De Weerdt, M.; Themann, К.; llieva, E.; Baayen, RP 2001. ...
Biosecurity surveillance: quantitative approaches
In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many ... more In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.
Additional file 1. Calculating the Effective sampling area.
Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, 2022
Ecological Applications, 2021
2021. Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across i... more 2021. Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases. Ecological Applications 31(5):e02319.
Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera; Tephritidae) represent a group of insects that include some of th... more Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera; Tephritidae) represent a group of insects that include some of the most economically important pests in horticulture. Because of their economic importance, the financial impacts of an incursion of tephritid fruit flies into a new area can often result in restrictions to trade. The economic impacts of any trade restrictions imposed by importing countries are confounded by the current absence of consistent and accepted criteria for the strength and extent of any trade restrictions and declaring the end of an incursion. The author has developed models that can be used to establish criteria for the management of tephritid fruit fly outbreaks as outlined in international standards. A model enables criteria on when to recognise an incursion has occurred and establish export restrictions. Another model determines what area or radius an export restriction zone (ERZ) should cover. And a third model establishes criteria for the conditions required to enable an ...
Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2022
Risk Analysis, 2021
An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is unders... more An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.
Biological Invasions
International trade in wood products brings the risk of the movement of tree pests, which can cau... more International trade in wood products brings the risk of the movement of tree pests, which can cause devastating ecosystem and economic damage. International phytosanitary guidelines have been created to help countries that import wood products develop import requirements to minimize pest movement. Requirements may include specific phytosanitary measures, including treatments such as heat, fumigation, chemical, or systems approaches that combine phytosanitary measures. This paper provides an overview of phytosanitary measures for the international trade of wood commodities and the regulatory framework in which they are applied.
Frontiers in insect science, Mar 18, 2024
Current Forestry Reports, Dec 28, 2023
Purpose of Review Because tree seeds have been considered a low-risk pathway for the spread of pl... more Purpose of Review Because tree seeds have been considered a low-risk pathway for the spread of plant pathogenic fungi, their international movement is not subject to strict phytosanitary regulation. However, recent studies have provided scientific evidence that the biosecurity risk of seed trade may not be as negligible as assumed. This review summarises current knowledge about seed trade activity across the world and seed-borne plant pathogenic fungi and highlights knowledge gaps that need to be filled to mitigate the risk of spreading tree pathogens via seeds. Recent Findings Several outbreaks of severe tree diseases in natural forests and plantations worldwide have been linked to fungal pathogens spread by seed trade. Indeed, recent studies based on modern sequencing technologies have shown that tree seeds harbour highly diverse fungal communities, including well-known pathogens and fungal taxa belonging to unknown species. While it has become clear that even apparently healthy seeds can carry potentially pathogenic fungi, the likelihood of seed-borne pathogens being introduced and becoming established, spreading and causing impact in the new environment is still unclear which challenges the assessment of the phytosanitary risk posed by seed trade. Summary Our analyses show that large amounts of tree seeds have been traded among countries and continents. Based on published literature, the risk of spreading pathogenic fungi via tree seed movement is high. However, the role of the taxonomically and functionally diverse fungal communities associated with seeds is still poorly understood. In particular, more research is needed to assess the likelihood of seed-borne fungi being transmitted to the seedlings and spreading and causing impact in the new environment.
... High Risk of a Phytophthora ramorum Epidemicf Daniel Hüberli,2'3 Kylie Ireland,4... more ... High Risk of a Phytophthora ramorum Epidemicf Daniel Hüberli,2'3 Kylie Ireland,4 Ian Smith,5 Bernard Dell,2 Michael Ormsby,6 David Rizzo,7 ... Werrcs, S.; Marwitz, R.; Man Tn'T Veld, WA; De Cock, AWAM; Bonants, PJM; De Weerdt, M.; Themann, К.; llieva, E.; Baayen, RP 2001. ...
Biosecurity surveillance: quantitative approaches
In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many ... more In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.
Additional file 1. Calculating the Effective sampling area.
Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection, 2022
Ecological Applications, 2021
2021. Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across i... more 2021. Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases. Ecological Applications 31(5):e02319.
Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera; Tephritidae) represent a group of insects that include some of th... more Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera; Tephritidae) represent a group of insects that include some of the most economically important pests in horticulture. Because of their economic importance, the financial impacts of an incursion of tephritid fruit flies into a new area can often result in restrictions to trade. The economic impacts of any trade restrictions imposed by importing countries are confounded by the current absence of consistent and accepted criteria for the strength and extent of any trade restrictions and declaring the end of an incursion. The author has developed models that can be used to establish criteria for the management of tephritid fruit fly outbreaks as outlined in international standards. A model enables criteria on when to recognise an incursion has occurred and establish export restrictions. Another model determines what area or radius an export restriction zone (ERZ) should cover. And a third model establishes criteria for the conditions required to enable an ...
Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2022
Risk Analysis, 2021
An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is unders... more An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.
Biological Invasions
International trade in wood products brings the risk of the movement of tree pests, which can cau... more International trade in wood products brings the risk of the movement of tree pests, which can cause devastating ecosystem and economic damage. International phytosanitary guidelines have been created to help countries that import wood products develop import requirements to minimize pest movement. Requirements may include specific phytosanitary measures, including treatments such as heat, fumigation, chemical, or systems approaches that combine phytosanitary measures. This paper provides an overview of phytosanitary measures for the international trade of wood commodities and the regulatory framework in which they are applied.