Michio Naoi - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Michio Naoi

International Real Estate Review

We explore the effect of mortgage curtailment payments on subsequent default probabilities. Altho... more We explore the effect of mortgage curtailment payments on subsequent default probabilities. Although curtailment is not popular in western countries, it is the dominant form of prepayment in Asia. Using more than 6 years of mortgage performance records from an Asian bank, we investigate the impact of curtailment payments on mortgage default risk. The results of logistic regressions reveal that the cumulative curtailment is the most significant factor in predicting the future default probabilities of a seasoned mortgage pool. Thus, mortgage modeling for Asian countries should be different from mortgage modeling for western countries.

Lessons in Sustainable Development from Malaysia and Indonesia, 2014

Both Japan and South Korea have strived to improve their environments through various policies. J... more Both Japan and South Korea have strived to improve their environments through various policies. Japan has done particularly well, as it completed the industrialization process several decades ago. The countries still have issues to work on, however. In this chapter, we examine policy recommendations for each country, ask how the countries can learn from one another, and discuss the way in which a partnership between the countries may enhance sustainable development.

A theoretical framework and empirical evidence are presented to show the connection between commu... more A theoretical framework and empirical evidence are presented to show the connection between community uniform rating and cross-subsidies in earthquake insurance policy in Japan. Cross-subsidies are defined as the difference between a fair actuarial ...

The hedonic pricing approach is used to examine whether homeowners and/or renters alter their sub... more The hedonic pricing approach is used to examine whether homeowners and/or renters alter their subjective assessments of earthquake risks after massive earthquakes. Using nation-wide household panel data coupled with earthquake hazard information and records of observed earthquakes, we find that there are some modifications of individuals’ assessments of earthquake risk in both cases. We have carefully taken into consideration the bias stemming from the use of objective risk variables as a proxy for individual risk assessments. Our results suggest that the price discount from locating within a quake-prone area is significantly larger soon after earthquake events than beforehand. We argue that the most likely interpretation for this result is that households tend to

This paper aims to examine respondent's mobility-related non-response in the longitudinal su... more This paper aims to examine respondent's mobility-related non-response in the longitudinal survey. We use the interviewer's record of respondent mobility, which can be observed even if the respondent does not participate in the respective wave, as a source of validation data. Using the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS) 2004–2007 as a primary dataset, household mobility equations are estimated for selected subsample of non-attritors by two competing methods—an inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator and a sample selection (SS) estimator. These two estimators are compared with a probit estimates using complete sample including both attritor and non-attritor. It is found that SS generally outperforms IPW in terms of coefficient estimates, suggesting that the mobility-related non-responses in the KHPS are non-ignorable. However, the results of Hausman test cannot find any significant bias for either IPW or SS estimator.

The social and academic reputation of private universities in Japan is generally far behind the n... more The social and academic reputation of private universities in Japan is generally far behind the national universities. We argue that heavy subsidy and the low tuition of national universities determined by the central government are both responsible for making the production of high academic quality di ¢ cult for private universities in equilibrium. Using several simulations based on a theoretical model of assignment of heterogeneous students and universities with respect to tuition and educational quality, we show that the distribution of tuitions and academic quality of private universities are a¤ected by the low tuition and heavy subsidy policy of national university. Using the cross-section data of all universities in Japan, we present empirical evidence on the determinants of tuition of private universities that support our theoretical prediction. JEL Classication Numbers: H52, I21, I22. Preliminary draft. Please do not cite without authors written consent. Comments are welcome.

The Japanese Journal of Real Estate Sciences

We examine the causal effects of family income on child outcomes and households'educational s... more We examine the causal effects of family income on child outcomes and households'educational spending using panel data of children matched to their parents. Our identification strategy relies on the largely exogenous, discontinuous changes in the Child Allowance Policy in Japan that occurred between 2010 and 2012. We examine whether an exogenous variation in family income due to policy changes in the payment schedule has any causal effects on children's cognitive outcomes and households' educational spending. Our ordinary least squares (OLS) and first-differenced (FD) results show that, in most cases, family income is positively correlated with children's cognitive outcomes and family's educational investment. Our FD ins trumental variable (FD-IV) results, using exogenous changes in child allowance payments as an instrument, show that family income does not have any causal impacts on child outcomes in the short run. This suggests that the positive income effects o...

The Japan Child Panel Survey (JCPS) is a parent-child panel survey that began in 2010 as a supple... more The Japan Child Panel Survey (JCPS) is a parent-child panel survey that began in 2010 as a supplementary survey to the Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS) and the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS). The survey subjects chosen were those parents among the JHPS or KHPS participants who had children enrolled in elementary or junior high school, as well as those parents' children. In 2012, JCPS conducted its third survey (JCPS 2012) on children extracted from the households of JHPS participants. A total of 493 children participated in this survey. The cooperation rate per household was 57.5%. The continuation rate from the first survey (JCPS 2010) was 70.3%. No difference was observed among the mean academic ability test scores measured in the JCPS 2010, 2011, and 2012.. In comparison with data collected in the West, scores for children's behavioral problems measured in JCPS were higher. Prosocial scores were lower. In addition, the tendency for children's QOL to decline when they enrolled in higher grades appeared more prominent in JCPS. The children's inclinations to vote in the future were correlated with their interest in political and social issues. The children's ownership rates for rooms, study desks, and mobile phones noted in the JCPS 2012 increased when children enrolled in higher grades. Children's current and time of birth heights and weights were confirmed to be statistically representative in comparison with a large public dataset. The incidence of obesity among elementary and junior high school children was 1.4% calculated by BMI and 6.5% based on a calculation of standard weights by heights. The performance of an analysis on the JCPS dataset in relation to the rich household information collected by JHPS and KHPS will help us understand the relationships that exist between children's growth and their family backgrounds in a detailed and dynamic manner. We also discuss problems inherent in JCPS.

This study investigates the intergenerational correlation of household wealth and its determinant... more This study investigates the intergenerational correlation of household wealth and its determinants using the Japan Household Panel Survey and its second-generation supplement. Our main empirical findings are as follows: (1) The marginal effect of parents’ financial wealth on their children’s wealth is about 0.10 to 0.13, (2) the intergenerational correlation of household wealth is partly, albeit to a lesser extent than previous findings, determined by children’s education and income, and (3) the impact of parental wealth on homeownership among children is largely explained by direct wealth transfers across generations. The study also investigates the relationship between future inheritance/gifts and the economic status of the child generation, finding that (1) future inheritance/gifts of financial wealth are largely unrelated to the economic status of the child generation and that (2) future inheritance/gifts of housing are negatively correlated with the economic status of the child...

This paper reports findings about the relationship between children's academic ability and family... more This paper reports findings about the relationship between children's academic ability and family background using the "Japan Child Panel Survey 2011 (JCPS2011)" to serve as a follow-up of Akabayashi et al. (2011) that described the results of the JCPS2010. For this analysis, we pay particular attention to how the child's gender, birth month, presence of siblings, parents' educational attainment, and level of household income impact scores in mathematics, Japanese, and reasoning tests. The results of this study are the followings: (1) Father's educational attainment of a college degree or higher positively influences the scores in mathematics and Japanese; (2) Mother's educational attainment of a college degree or higher positively influences the scores in mathematics, Japanese, and reasoning; (3) Child's birth month between January 1 and April 1 negatively influences the scores in mathematics; (4) Household annual income positively influences the scores in mathematics, Japanese, and reasoning

Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 2021

The Child Allowance Policy (CAP) in Japan, a nationwide cash transfer program for families with c... more The Child Allowance Policy (CAP) in Japan, a nationwide cash transfer program for families with children, was designed to increase household expenditures toward children. Using unforeseen changes in the CAP that occurred due to the electoral results as a source of exogenous variation in income in the early 2010s, this paper examines the causal impact of family income on households’ private educational expenditures and child outcomes in the short-run, based on a longitudinal parent-child survey. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and first-differenced (FD) results show that family income is in most cases positively correlated with child's cognitive outcomes, and, to a lesser extent, with families’ educational expenditure on their children. Based on the FD instrumental variable (FD-IV) estimation, using unexpected changes in CAP payments as an instrument, we find positive income effects on educational expenditure in the short-run. However, we did not find statistically significant i...

We exploit the release of the Central Disaster Management Council’s updated tsunami prediction as... more We exploit the release of the Central Disaster Management Council’s updated tsunami prediction as a natural experiment, and identify the causal impact of tsunami risk on human migration across municipalities in Japan. Our empirical analysis is based on the municipality-to-municipality migration flows taken from the 2010 and 2015 census of Japan, covering both before and after the release of tsunami predictions. With over 530,000 migration flow observations, we find that higher tsunami predictions can increase the outflow from the municipality and decrease the inflow into the municipality, particularly among younger population. Our empirical findings are robust to the inclusion of various controls such as demographic and socio-economic characteristics, unobserved municipality-level fixed effects, and the impact of 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Further empirical analysis suggests that migration responses are weaker in municipalities by which extensive disaster management and loss prevention...

The measurement of consumers’ marginal willingness to pay for public education provides a basis f... more The measurement of consumers’ marginal willingness to pay for public education provides a basis for evaluating and improving existing education policies. This study reviews recent empirical studies that examined the relationship between school quality and housing prices based on a hedonic approach. We classify the existing empirical works according to their identification strategies, discuss the magnitudes of the estimated marginal willingness to pay for public education, and highlight several key aspects that need to be investigated in future research.

Japan is famous for its earthquakes. To examine effects of earthquake risk on quality of life of ... more Japan is famous for its earthquakes. To examine effects of earthquake risk on quality of life of households, we estimate the quality of life index (QOLI) considering earthquake occurrence probability, and examine the regional differences of the QOLI among Japanese cities. We first estimate the hedonic price models of wage and housing rents using the household longitudinal data covering all Japan, and then estimate the QOLI. From the estimated results, we find that the earthquake risk has significant impacts on householdsi QOLI, and that there are large differences in QOLI among cities in Japan. We propose local government policies to prepare for earthquake risks in each city based on our results.

This paper examines the impact of earthquake risks on real estate market, and whether this is cha... more This paper examines the impact of earthquake risks on real estate market, and whether this is changed after the Great East Japan Earthquake. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine whether homeowners and/or renters alter their subjective risk assessments after the Great East Japan Earthquake. We found that housing rents/prices went up in risky areas after the Great East Japan Earthquake, suggesting that earthquake risk was overestimated before the earthquake.

A model of the term structure of lease rates in a frictionless economy is developed and its predi... more A model of the term structure of lease rates in a frictionless economy is developed and its predictions are compared with data on residential leases in Japan. The model shows that the initial lease rate for a cancellable lease must be set higher than that for a non-cancellable lease because the former rate will be repeatedly adjusted downward when the market rent decreases. More importantly, the term structure of lease rates is always upward-sloping for cancellable leases. Empirical findings show a sharp contrast with the theory. Fixed-term lease rates are often higher than open-ended long-term lease rates. Moreover, in the fixed-term lease sample, the term structure of lease rates is downward-sloping. The term structure is also heterogeneous by tenant’s income.

【Abstract】 The first wave of Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS) was designed to let participants... more 【Abstract】 The first wave of Japan Household Panel Survey (JHPS) was designed to let participants respond to questionnaires via the Web rather than paper if they desired. In this study, we investigate whether introducing the Web option altered the response rate of the survey. We emphasize that eventual Web respondents would likely have responded even in the absence of this mode. In general, when gauging the effect of treatments, such as policy-related treatments, a control group is usually required, regardless of whether the design is experimental or quasi-experimental. However, in some cases, a control group cannot be assigned into or observed.We show that the effectof adding an alternative option can be estimated without a control group,under certain assumptions. We use this approach to estimate increase in unit-response due to adding the Web mode.The result shows that the options “Web response” and “paper response” were mutually easily substitutable, and, only few respondents would not have responded unless Web mode was available. In short, the net rise in unit-response introduced by Web mode was only limited. Inaddition, in this paper, we show the characteristics of those who had PC and Internet access, which enabled online responses, and those who actually responded via Web mode.

The relationships between seismic risk and rental and owner- occupied housing prices in the whole... more The relationships between seismic risk and rental and owner- occupied housing prices in the whole of Japan are examined. The empirical results from hedonic regressions with earthquake risk indices suggest that: (1) earthquake occurrence probability has a significantly negative effect on monthly housing rent, (2) the effect of earthquake probability seems to depend on the characteristics of the individual housing unit (e.g. age of dwelling) for owner-occupied housing, (3) the estimated risk premium is much larger for older buildings, and (4) the share of quake-resistant dwellings in the neighborhood area is significantly and positively related to the housing price of the individual unit. These results suggest that anti-seismic policies that target specific groups of dwellings, such as rental houses and older buildings, help to mitigate welfare loss due to earthquakes.

International Real Estate Review

Lessons in Sustainable Development from Malaysia and Indonesia, 2014

The Japanese Journal of Real Estate Sciences

Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, 2021